Post: #1

Im not a big sports gambler but when the world cups on I cant resist. Last world cup I made 10x my initial deposit in profit and thought I would try and follow it up this year.

Still some time before it kicks off but I went forward anyway and made my first bet on the champions league final.

Real Madrid to win 1.94:1
A few things noted
Its played in lisbon Ronaldo's home, ronaldo has rested a week for it
Real madrid have pretty much their best 11.
Diego costa, one of Atletico's key players is injured.

I think these odds are too good and will go down as the game gets closer.

Post: #2

You mean uefa champions league.

Good points though. I would like athletico to win just because they are the little guys in la liga compared to barca and real.

Post: #3

I'll be following this post for World Cup betting! I already started heavy analysing the teams, the players, etc. and I made a fb group where I invite international friends (have almost atleast one from every participating country who is into football) from the countries to give local knowledge and expectations about their teams. Let's discuss strategies closer to date, as many things can still change.

For the CL finale, I wouldn't bet on Real with that rate.

Post: #4

Dude I wouldn't bet on RM winning Athletico have shown when the chips are down and the odds are against them they will somehow rise to the occasion...Diego Simeone is amazing I just wish my team Arsenal had a manager like him

Post: #5

Haha im a arsenal fan as well. Anyway we will see this weekend. These were the highest odds I could find. As for the WC I will regularly post my thoughts and hope we can get tips off each other. History has shown that a south american team has always won the world cup in south america.

Post: #6

Haha im a arsenal fan as well. Anyway we will see this weekend. These were the highest odds I could find. As for the WC I will regularly post my thoughts and hope we can get tips off each other. History has shown that a south american team has always won the world cup in south america.

Post: #7

Yes mate south american teams win the world cup in south america and Brazil wins when it isn't hosted in Europe...I have a feeling Messi will show up this world cup but my head tells me FIFA won't be stupid to allow Brazil to lose the world cup they host...we will see @Shanked

Post: #8

What a game! Atletico almost snagged it with Casillas making a very bad mistake getting caught in no man's land. Ronaldo and Benzema were completely shut down and did nothing all game. Di Maria was definitely best on the pitch amazing player in great form. If Atletico weren't so dirty in their tackles and as well as other methods to disrupt Real Madrid's game, they would scored much earlier. Real Madrid couldn't get any rhythm going. Hats off to Diego Simeone though amazing coach. A team with much less individual skill doing whatever it takes to win. I think the difference in transfers of players between the two squads was $80m to Real Madrid's $520m.

Not sure why Diego Costa was cleared to play, he came off after 9 minutes! Sergio Ramos 94th minute equalizer giving RM enough space to take it in extra time. I think it was good RM won because they would have probably sacked Ancelotti if they didn't and he is a great coach.

Post: #9

GROUP A
Brazil
Mexico
Croatia
Cameroon

GROUP B
Spain
Netherlands
Chile
Australia

GROUP C
Colombia
Greece
Cote D'Ivoire
Japan

GROUP D
Uruguay
Costa Rica
England
Italy

GROUP E
Switzerland
Ecuador
France
Honduras

GROUP F
Argentina
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Iran
Nigeria

GROUP G
Germany
Portugal
Ghana
Usa

GROUP H
Belgium
Algeria
Russia
South Korea

One of my favourite bets is making a multi-bet of the teams to get through the group stage. I bolded my guesses.
Brazil is a sure thing, and either Mexico or Croatia next both are strong.
I hope some miracle will help Australia through but I doubt it. They sacked their coach not long ago. Spain very strong as well as Chile even though they will be missing Fernandez due to injury.

Group C I think anything could happen its not a very strong group Japan will most likely qualify though.

Group D. Suarez just had knee surgery but plans to playing. Whether or not he recovers I believe their team is strong enough to get through the group stage but if they are to have any chance getting deeper or possibly winning they need him.

Group F - Argentina strong contenders to win it, and Bosnia also very strong side players to watch out for Dzeko and Pjanic.

Group G - Very likely germany and portugal will both qualify

Group H - Easy group, Belgium have a very strong and young team and have the potential to cause some upsets.

These are my guesses. Only 3 weeks left

Post: #10

GROUP A (Mexican, so one can hope but next round we'll get 1 of group b's so yeah...)
Brazil
Mexico

GROUP B (Unsure about this group because Chile is almost pretty much at home depending on how many people go to see them )
Spain
Netherlands
Chile

GROUP C
Colombia
Japan

GROUP D
Uruguay
Italy

GROUP E
Ecuador
France

GROUP F
Argentina
Bosnia & Herzegovina

GROUP G (Unsure about this group . My heart says USA but my gut says Portugal)
Germany
Portugal
Usa

GROUP H
Belgium
Russia

Post: #11

What sites are you guys betting on?

Post: #12

@Shanked Your predictions look good however my home country Nigeria will make it out of the group F we are the african champions for christ sakes.

Post: #13

At this moment for me, lots will still change based on injuries and friendlies.

GROUP A
Brazil
Mexico - lacking players in top competitions, some old players in first 11
Croatia - think about it; Rakitic, Modric, Mandzukic, etc. this team is no joke
Cameroon - some good players as well but i dont think they will make it, Mexico is notoriously bad against African teams so they might decide the group in that sense.

GROUP B
Spain
Netherlands - they are nowhere near their former level, but some of the youngsters have skills, it will be close
Chile - as a team they are top, if Vidal doesnt get fit, things might change, in depth they are not that good.
Australia - will get slaughtered, bet on it

GROUP C
Colombia - even without Falcao, top team
Greece - good defense but no
Cote D'Ivoire - top players but not a top team
Japan - excellent team, they will surprise, this team is in full balance with sharp tecnical and tactical play.

GROUP D
Uruguay - Suarez - Cavani is deathly
Costa Rica - no chance
England - very tough call but the England team actually looks decent this time I think; will be close with the other two
Italy - strong team as well, they can go out but they can also reach the semis, tough call this group.

GROUP E
Switzerland - underrated team with quality in every line
Ecuador - weak team, nothing but athleticism
France - outsider, they have it all, but how will they play as a team
Honduras - weak team

GROUP F
Argentina
Bosnia & Herzegovina - close with Nigeria but they are a strong tactical team and Dzeko is in top shape, Pjanic-Misimovic etc. good stuff
Iran
Nigeria - can be a very good counter team but are they tactically smart enough?

GROUP G
Germany
Portugal - Strong team, the match against Ghana will be rough
Ghana - lots of quality as well, they have a good chance, tough group to call
Usa - not a chance, sorry guys

GROUP H
Belgium
Algeria - not as bad as people think; but they play too defensively
Russia - not a top team, but def enough quality for second round
South Korea - latest results dont impress me at all, few players who are key players in their team

Post: #14

Sportsbet seems to give the best odds on the last few times I checked other sites.

@OzzieBlue, I'll be honest I don't know much about Nigeria's squad I just remember what happened in their last World Cup..
I hope they pull something off like Senegal did way back in the 2002 WC.

Something I forgot to mention was USA have a great coach Jürgen Klinsmann, don't count them out. If they are going to qualify I think they will take Portugals spot.

Post: #15

What returns are we looking at for winning the multi bet?

Post: #16

Betfair.com is the best site for odds by far. It's a betting exchange, not a bookies. Slightly different but essentially odds are set by people vs people.

Post: #17

(05-20-2014 05:46 PM)rottenapple Wrote:  I'll be following this post for World Cup betting! I already started heavy analysing the teams, the players, etc. and I made a fb group where I invite international friends (have almost atleast one from every participating country who is into football) from the countries to give local knowledge and expectations about their teams. Let's discuss strategies closer to date, as many things can still change.

For the CL finale, I wouldn't bet on Real with that rate.

Send me a PM with the link, I'm interested in this group. Can help with Switzerland, don't live there anymore but I'm from there and follow all the football very closely.



Anyways, this is going to be an incredibly difficult WC to call. All of the favorites have glaring weaknesses.

For me though, I still like Spain to get an unprecedented 4th major trophy in a row. The main criticism against them seems to be an aging squad - I disagree though, while some of the stalwarts have aged, they have a good blend of youth, and the real kicker for me is that they finally have a striker again in Diego Costa, so who knows how good they could be.

Other teams I like...

Belgium - Incredibly deep team, as good as it gets really. Experience and conditions could cause concerns, fullback is a bit of a worrisome position as well, but just an incredibly talented team that also seem to have a great camaraderie.
France - One of the most well balanced teams, they are stacked in goal, defense, midfield, and attack. I think they've learned their lessons and could be real threats. Wouldn't have the toughest ever path to the final, either.
Colombia - Big blow with the news that Falcao is missing, but their attack is still loaded with quality and they have a tight defense as well. Suited to the conditions and had no problems in qualifying.
Chile - Also suited to the conditions, and just a brilliant team to watch. Tend to tear teams apart, they are just so good going forwards. Last WC the defensive side killed them, but now the manager has kept Bielsa's attacking play but added some defensive solidity. Watch out.

I have 0.4x of a normal bet on all of those teams (Spain, Belgium, France, Colombia, Chile)...mainly just to hedge off, but I think all could go very far.

I also have 0.2x on the following longer shots, but again, all have real potential.

Switzerland 155/1 - Very solid team with a fantastic manager. Airtight defense (saw what they did to Spain last WC), industrious midfield, players that can make things happen going forward. Handling pressure/not choking will be what it comes down to.
Mexico 170/1 - Underrated after going through 4 managers in qualifying. Now they finally have one that has the team playing the way they can, and they can be very, very good. Montes injury is a bad break but still, the odds are ridiculous.
Croatia 210/1 - Extremely similar situation to Mexico (oddly enough in the same group)...terrible manager through qualifying, pick up a competent one right at the end - underrated as a result. A midfield of Modric, Rakitic, and Kovacic at 210/1?
Japan 230/1 - Most insane odds of the tournament. Not only do they have quality players and a manager that knows how to win, but they play excellent football. The Japanese all have fantastic technique, touch, etc. Just look at the goal they scored vs the Netherlands.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlOrPzpSJTA

Teams I don't think will do well:
Brazil - Not even because of the pressure, simply because I don't think their team is very good. You look down the squad list and it's very uninspiring, all the weight will land on Neymar's shoulders. Not a fan of Scolari either.
Argentina - Another favorite. Yeah their attack is outstanding but Argentina have struggled to put it together in the past years, why would that change now? More importantly, their defense is extremely suspect and their midfield is not good enough to win a World Cup.
Germany - Excellent team, and they may go far, but if you ask me they are completely lacking a striker. Schurrle, Mueller, Podolski, Klose, etc...just not good enough. They weren't able to win a trophy with better strikers in the past years, why does that change now?
Netherlands - Extremely weak side compared to the 2010 finalist side. The stars have aged, the young players aren't good enough yet. LVG is going to United afterwards, so focus is a doubt. Their qualifying record was excellent but in a poor group, and I just don't see them going anywhere.

Also, not favorites or anything, but think Ecuador might struggle bigtime. They have a terrible record when they aren't playing in Ecuador, only got 3 points in all of qualifying away from home. Obviously they won't be at home in Brazil. Don't think the team is that great either, especially having tragically lost their striking talisman in Chucho (RIP). They're about 6/1 to finish bottom of the group last I checked, might be worth a poke.

I'll make sure to post my picks when the WC starts.

Post: #18

Great post Strikeb4ck!
Good info and solid reasons for your picks.
Incidentally, for anyone in UK or IRE, the Racing Post will have a detailed preview of the World Cup and the various teams and their prospects.
I've found their analysis quite astute in the past, worth picking up.

Post: #19

Care to share?

Post: #20

England or bust

Post: #21

Some bets I already placed which are worth the odds (not going into the specifics here, all sites have similar odds I imagine)

-Croatia will surprise Brazil (1 to 11, Croatia is pretty good, they have a fair chance)
-Ecuador loses to France and Switzerland (they only made it because they play at altitude in Quito)
-Japan wins from Greece (old greece vs tiki taka from Japan)
-Cameroon will beat Croatia (they play in Manaus in the heat)
-Belgium to not receive goals against in first round games
-Bosnia to become second
-Chile wins with atleast 2 goals difference from Australia
-for topscorers Benzema is a good shout, Di maria/Aguera perhaps