Post: #351

US shale oil production isn't going down, even as oil price plunged earlier this decade:



US oil production has already bounced back to the 1970s peak, and is slated to double from there, due to improvements in technology which have brought costs way down, a key aspect that doomers somehow just can't seem to grasp.

Quote:The shale oil sector is also better equipped than before to face both a rise in capital spending and a potential sub-$55/bbl oil price scenario. As can be expected, cashflow generation in the U.S. oil industry declined significantly in 2014-16.

By Q3 2016 however, based on the financial results of 50 shale operators constituting 60% of shale oil production, the sector became free cash flow (FCF) neutral for the first time in its history. The achievement is remarkable as the industry was not in this position even with oil above $100/bbl in 2012-2014. Any increase above the $50/bbl level will allow significant increases in FCF-financed, as opposed to debt-financed, capital spending. In other words, the sector will be able to expand oil production without damaging its balance sheet, therefore in a more sustainable manner. And even if prices remain at $50/bbl, the fact that capital spending is still significantly lower today than at the peaks of 2014 means that the industry can continue producing at the current rate and still break even.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4056188...march-2017

Post: #352

(03-29-2019 02:47 PM)questor70 Wrote:  

(03-29-2019 09:42 AM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Im open to "new" information

Yeah, right.

For instance, do you want me to post to article after article talking about peak oil DEMAND brought upon by electrification?

Start here:





Even if what Seba is talking about is overly optimistic, some of what he's going to say is highly likely and will, at the very least, take a bite out of PO consequences. And note, this lecture was BEFORE the infamous 2018 Geneva Auto show when almost ever automaker suddenly announced new long-range EVs.

I also see a lot of worst-case-scenario conjecture here as far as depletion goes, an error that made peakers discount unconventional in the first place until proven otherwise.

You guys are suffering from severe tunnel-vision and cherry-picking.

I find it interesting to notice that questor70, the early defender of peak oil & lifeboat ethics in this thread, suddenly seems to have changed sites. Cognitive dissonance at work?

An early harbinger for the future? It may be very well that, similarly to the non-intuitive phenomenon of the post-peak decline in oil prices, we will see fewer, not more, doomers in the future. Actually it would explain the disappearance of many sites discussing the problem: theoildrum, thearchdruidreport, etc...

Seems a situation a bit like in the 1944-1945 Germany, German Endsieg (the Final Victory) approaching closer and closer with more and more German defeats.

Post: #353

Cognitive dissonance manifests itself when people instinctively refuse to acknowledge objective, new information that goes counter their strongly-held positions, so if Questor changed his mind on peak oil, he is actually overcoming CD here, not succumbing from it.

You doomer guys are refusing to acknowledge this objective reality:



1- shale oil production prices are dropping fast due to new tech and process improvements

2- the quantity of recoverable shale oil discovered in the past decade is huge. What was inaccessible 10 years ago is a lot less than what is today, and most probably, a lot less than what will be accessible in a decade or two.

3- the investments already in place have resulted in an industry that is resilient and can withstand if not thrive in a $50 oil environment.

Post: #354

Maybe Rockefeller Foundation is acknowledging a changing reality, it has just dropped one of its climate change programs.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-2...m-jeopardy

Post: #355

911,

What Tony is saying in that video is true. Brushless electric motors paired with todays battery technology are going to disrupt personal transportation globally over the next 5 years.

It is happenning now, Because of peak oil. It has to happen now BECAUSE peak oil.

Unfortonately our economic system is based on growth and growth cannot occurr without increased energy available. its thermodynamicly impossible . Shale oils depletion curves have NOT been overcome by technology. The russians have known about fracking for a long time. They realised its a waste of money and never pursued it. Its the USA in its infinite wisdom has created a huge industry based on a mountain of debt at artificially low interest, that has never made a profit and never will.

The tremendous depletion curves, record junk debt, unprofitability and low energy returned on energy invested is the most important aspects to keep in mind when you discuss the foundation of your case you make about peak oil. Quite a weak one.

I dont know what hopium your smoking but $50 oil is not profitable to the worlds oil producers. They are dropping like flies at 60 per barrell!!

Crops are failing and grain reserves depleted.

. Largest oil reserves and their Governmwnts are collapsing, peiple are starving(venezuela)Iran, Iraq, Syria) ,

sovereighn debt and currency is collapsing (turkey, argentina, emerging market)

We have the lowest interest rates in history and no real profitable ways to put all the capital to work that is not canibalising other sectors ie Amazon. Even with QE, NIRP, Bailins and outs... The world economy is on the verge of collapse.

Most sheeple are ignoring what really matters and focused on the disinformation from mainstream media. The media is parsing out this nonsense and folks are beleiving it.

Iconoclast007

Post: #356

That was hard, Iconoclast, yes. To say all the cold truths at the same time.
Wasn't it Hobbes who said "Hell is the truth realized too late"?!
It reminds me about this truly scary film, Harry Angel,
"I know who I am"
"How terrible is wisdom when it brings no profit to the wise" That goes against entire conditioning of our culture, which equates knowledge/wisdom with the way to perfection.
"For 12 years you have lived on borrowed time, Johny"

From time to time even Hollywood says the truth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb1AjU67W2s

There is a hidden, disturbing message in this film, too. A message hidden in names. Angel [the name of character] loses to the devil, Louis Cypher.

What personally gives me creeps is that both Olduvai Theory of Robert Duncan and ETP thermodynamic oil extraction model of The Hill Group arrived at the same year, 2030, as the end of an industrial civilization. The trend does not change.

No wonder people turning to religion, like Roosh. It would be quite unexpected, but not impossible, and maybe for the best, if RVF would finally turn into the group of monastics.

Post: #357

Contrary to what many may think here, I have no stake in doomerism. I learnt about peak oil by accident long time ago, and when shale revolution started I did believe in it too, initially, so much that I left the subject for years, only to get awaken to the thema again last year by the protests in France.

Truth is true.

Post: #358

U.S. LTO production will not start to decline because of a lack of drilling opportunities, lack of funds (the FED has their back), or because of high well decline rates. It will decline when it runs out of buyers for it. That will happen in the next couple of years.

http://energyskeptic.com/2017/ugo-bardi-...up-report/


That was said in 2017, two years ago. IT IS HAPPENING NOW.

/thread-33831...pid1958450

Post: #359

Kaligula.

The truth is that we are likely to experience the largest die off of humans in thousands of years by 2030. You may survive, many will die. You may wish you died. Hopefully the survivors can drive electric cars,lol

Life is naturally harsh, brutal, short.

We are all soft. That will change soon. Life will go on. It is not the end, merely a change.

The good news is that feminism will end in an instant when SHTF. Harems will once again be normal.

Post: #360

(03-29-2019 09:38 PM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Kaligula.

The truth is that we are likely to experience the largest die off of humans in thousands of years by 2030. You may survive, many will die. You may wish you died. Hopefully the survivors can drive electric cars,lol

Life is naturally harsh, brutal, short.

We are all soft. That will change soon. Life will go on. It is not the end, merely a change.

The good news is that feminism will end in an instant when SHTF. Harems will once again be normal.

Yes, but those harems will be mainly for work, not for reproduction.

In more archaic cultures - India, Africa - women still do most of work.

Maybe not just harems, but simply slaves.

But well, we will be maybe the first civilization that will go down really knowing why, fulfilling Apollonian "Know Thyself". Our wisdom will be the Neronian pleasure of watching Rome burning.
How terrible is wisdom when it brings no profit to the wise.

Post: #361

Peak oil hits Mexico hard in 2019.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-2...l-importer

Post: #362

(02-01-2019 05:26 AM)Oberrheiner Wrote:  Of course there is no political solution, politics is the problem.

Conservative want to conserve .. what exactly ?
Life just does not work this way, you either improve or you regress, there is no conservation possible - it's either up or down.

You need to build up your life in a way that the politics around you do not matter.
The muslims here did it, so technically it's possible.
How we manage (or don't), we will witness in our lifetime, but in any case this should be your number one priority, not peak oil, global warming, or whatever else the scare industry is currently busy with.

Free software is great, you just need to be realistic and understand that the GPL cannot force human nature to change, nothing can.
My projects are BSD-licensed, those who want (and can) get something out of it do, those who want to help can too, and the other morons .. they will not be changed by a license, let's get real.

This is often misunderstood but Linus said it himself, his OS works because its development was darwinistic.
The pirate party was always left/liberal and not darwinist, so it could never have worked containing such a fundamental contradiction.
Also, wasn't it full of women ?

I mean come on what is this, east germany ?


And I didn't take the worst picture, in some she looks like a 12-yo gamer boy, in others like a hippopotamus ..
How can you put your faith in someone like that ?

She can't manage her own body, but she should manage a country ? Hello .. ?

Oberrheiner was right. Physiognomy may be real.

Spitzel (rat), maybe even Stasi.

Julia Reda has just accused her party colleague of sexual abuse, and her party, The Pirates, of tolerating it. Compared him to Weinstein!

The accused is facing just one complaint, after another one has been already withdrawn. The complaint has not been investigated yet, but she has already decided and she is leaving Pirates.

Typisch Deutsch. Typically German.
Holy German actions are self-justyfying, no need to insult her with investigations.

What a bitch. Actually I heard her in radio two days ago, frothing, though in a noble case, still frothing, unbalanced as she is.
A party slut, perhaps. Started with SPD (socialists), moved to Pirates to play a female face, and now moving to the Greens. Yes, no chance for her to renew MEP mandate in her small party, so it is time not only to abandon ship but to put it ablaze! To buy some points with a new party. "Don't vote for Pirates!"

In an ironic way, she is a true pirate, cares only about herself.


A small, boutique party should never import front faces from a mainstream party.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/reda-p...i-101.html

Post: #363

(03-30-2019 03:28 AM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Peak oil hits Mexico hard in 2019.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-2...l-importer

Of course, there can't be any reasons why oil development in Mexico has slowed over the past decade or so. Must be that they've run out entirely! PEAK OIL IS HERE! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!

Quote:As security unraveled, at least two Pemex workers were killed and 16 were kidnapped as gangs demanded protection money from oil firms and blocked work crews from accessing wells and pipelines. A manager with Weatherford International Ltd (WFT.N), the Switzerland-based oilfield services firm, was also murdered.

Post: #364

Samuelbroberts.

Lay of the hopium its clouding your judgement.

Mexico is straight fucked and headed towards Venezuela very soon.

[In Mexico] “Production peaked in 2004/2005 at just over 3.5 million b/d, so the overall decline is approaching 50%…Only three years since 1999 have had reserve replacement ratios greater than 100%. Many years’ numbers have actually been negative, some of them significantly so, and the estimated ultimate recovery has been revised slightly downwards overall.”

George Kaplan, oil industry analyst

Post: #365

(03-30-2019 04:42 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

(03-30-2019 03:28 AM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Peak oil hits Mexico hard in 2019.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-2...l-importer

Of course, there can't be any reasons why oil development in Mexico has slowed over the past decade or so. Must be that they've run out entirely! PEAK OIL IS HERE! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!

MILLIONS upon MILLIONS will DIE!!!! 2030!!!!... HAREMS1!!!!
ZOMBIES1!!! You'll have to eat your shoes to make it through 2031!! ...
Triglypuff will be a size 2 by 2030 6 months after she eats her last cat!


US Corn price/bushel

Post: #366

See attached limits to growth analysis that seems to be spot on. They call for food shortages to start soon. I think they will be right. The grand solar minimum will not help. Bear in mind that Food is a calorie of oil converted. As energy is in price decline due to energy deflation, it stands to reason that until shortages occurr, food will be plentifull.

Food was plentifull and cheap in the great depression. Farmers could not make a profit. Food was available but few could afford it. We are headed to a stagflation environment..

You guys really need to wrap your minds around deflationary energy consequences.

Lets watch those grain prices as 2019 progresses. A leveraged long play on basket of grains could prove profitable.

Post: #367

(03-30-2019 08:45 AM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  See attached limits to growth analysis that seems to be spot on. They call for food shortages to start soon. I think they will be right. The grand solar minimum will not help. Bear in mind that Food is a calorie of oil converted. As energy is in price decline due to energy deflation, it stands to reason that until shortages occurr, food will be plentifull.

Food was plentifull and cheap in the great depression. Farmers could not make a profit. Food was available but few could afford it. We are headed to a stagflation environment..

You guys really need to wrap your minds around deflationary energy consequences.

Lets watch those grain prices as 2019 progresses. A leveraged long play on basket of grains could prove profitable.

The 2019 line should be closer to 2050. Don't enough will power to put us on the verge of abyss, after all...?

In 2050 (pretty late, actually) we are already back in Dark Ages, with high level of deaths and births. It essentially means a lot of children dying in their childhood, no birth control, every woman having a child every year, probably harems (no stranded women, mass die-off of cat ladies).

Post: #368

(03-30-2019 08:45 AM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  See attached limits to growth analysis that seems to be spot on. They call for food shortages to start soon. I think they will be right. The grand solar minimum will not help. Bear in mind that Food is a calorie of oil converted. As energy is in price decline due to energy deflation, it stands to reason that until shortages occurr, food will be plentifull.

I'm sorry, what?

Post: #369

(03-30-2019 09:36 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

(03-30-2019 08:45 AM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  See attached limits to growth analysis that seems to be spot on. They call for food shortages to start soon. I think they will be right. The grand solar minimum will not help. Bear in mind that Food is a calorie of oil converted. As energy is in price decline due to energy deflation, it stands to reason that until shortages occurr, food will be plentifull.

I'm sorry, what?

I've heard all these arguments before.

10+ years ago peak oilers tried to popularize the idea that food is merely converted oil thanks to things like plastic packaging and shipping and diesel tractors.

Turns out that the amount of oil used in food production is highly overstated. Just to grow food, fertilizer uses natural gas as a feedstock (the haber bosch process). That process of fixing nitrogen can also be done through renewables. It was once done through hydro-power, for instance. So as crappy as our soil fertility is without chemical inputs, as long as we have energy, we can still force food production to happen. But for now, there's a glut of natural gas as fracking is primarly about natural gas rather than oil.

Now, I know the sentiment here is overwhelmingly global warming denialist, but the biggest threat to food production is really climate change, not energy shortages. We can't grow all our food under carefully controlled greenhouses. So we're dependent on a stable climate and rainfall and keeping pests/diseases at bay. In addition to that, the world's oceans are rapidly dying (through acidification, dead-zones, and overfishing).

There are simply too many humans on this planet as the limits to growth chart demonstrates. All I'm saying is the proximate threat at present is probably not energy but climate/ecology which will continue to degrade as we use fossil fuels and consume natural resources through overpopulation.

Post: #370

(03-29-2019 03:36 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  I find it interesting to notice that questor70, the early defender of peak oil & lifeboat ethics in this thread, suddenly seems to have changed sites. Cognitive dissonance at work?

How have I "changed sides"?

It's this whole tribalism surrounding belief systems that is the reason why people tend to always cling to inaccurate visions of the future.

The future doesn't unfold according to anyone's wants (or fears). Things don't happen at our preferred pace, and people are really impatient, ADD creatures, desperate to validate our Cassandra syndrome.

The problem with doomers such as yourself is you feel that in order to hold onto your apocalyptic narratives that you have to predict that a hard crash is going to happen literally any day now, soon enough for you to go around flailing your arums around and generating lots of attention (which is, of course, the main reason to do it, right? Be honest.). That "any day now" will just keep shifting into the future as it doesn't happen. It will always be this phenomenon of constantly biting your nails waiting for the other shoe to drop and linking to zerohedge and linking to zerohedge and trying to get a rise out of people.

I don't deny that it's within the realm of possibilities, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario. What 2008 taught me is that the system is much more resilient. It's not really a house of cards. Maybe the financial system is, but the bedrock of our global agricultural, manufacturing, and energy system is more durable than that. It's not that it's sustainable, just that it's still got enough tricks up its sleeve that people probably should not be thinking of retreating into a bunker in a narrow timeframe. Once you go beyond this I can see rapid climate change causes all sorts of stress and strain on the food system.

I'm blase' about this not because I think the future's gonna be great. It's because I've moved through the stages of grief. Obviously I'm worried about things but there's little anyone can do about it at this point. Raising awareness has failed. Activism has failed. Nobody gives a shit. Nobody's gonna change their behavior. It's just gonna play out how it plays out.

I've come across a lot of people in my time who seem to have invested hundreds or even thousands of hours keyboard warrioring on these topics and it's a huge waste of time. I spent years doing this sort of thing way back when. You have to learn to let go and make the most of the time you're given.

Post: #371

(03-30-2019 10:44 AM)questor70 Wrote:  

(03-29-2019 03:36 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  I find it interesting to notice that questor70, the early defender of peak oil & lifeboat ethics in this thread, suddenly seems to have changed sites. Cognitive dissonance at work?

How have I "changed sides"?

It's this whole tribalism surrounding belief systems that is the reason why people tend to always cling to inaccurate visions of the future.

The future doesn't unfold according to anyone's wants (or fears). Things don't happen at our preferred pace, and people are really impatient, ADD creatures, desperate to validate our Cassandra syndrome.

The problem with doomers such as yourself is you feel that in order to hold onto your apocalyptic narratives that you have to predict that a hard crash is going to happen literally any day now, soon enough for you to go around flailing your arums around and generating lots of attention (which is, of course, the main reason to do it, right? Be honest.). That "any day now" will just keep shifting into the future as it doesn't happen. It will always be this phenomenon of constantly biting your nails waiting for the other shoe to drop and linking to zerohedge and linking to zerohedge and trying to get a rise out of people.

I don't deny that it's within the realm of possibilities, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario. What 2008 taught me is that the system is much more resilient. It's not really a house of cards. Maybe the financial system is, but the bedrock of our global agricultural, manufacturing, and energy system is more durable than that. It's not that it's sustainable, just that it's still got enough tricks up its sleeve that people probably should not be thinking of retreating into a bunker in a narrow timeframe. Once you go beyond this I can see rapid climate change causes all sorts of stress and strain on the food system.

I'm blase' about this not because I think the future's gonna be great. It's because I've moved through the stages of grief. Obviously I'm worried about things but there's little anyone can do about it at this point. Raising awareness has failed. Activism has failed. Nobody gives a shit. Nobody's gonna change their behavior. It's just gonna play out how it plays out.

I've come across a lot of people in my time who seem to have invested hundreds or even thousands of hours keyboard warrioring on these topics and it's a huge waste of time. I spent years doing this sort of thing way back when. You have to learn to let go and make the most of the time you're given.

That sounds reasonable what you said, questor. But that its not true. 2008 learnt us nothing. You are a Syren's voice, questor.
The only question remaining is which calamity will strike first: an ice age, or a peak oil.

Obviously there is something strange in the awe and contemplation such huge events provoke - it is like the gates of future closing before our own eyes - but actually I think it is a more appropriate reaction than pretending that the world does not exist.
We are part of this world, aren't we?

Like the knight in Bergman's Seventh Seal, let's have some respect for ourselves, enough to look the death straight into the eye, and not be mumbling in a hospital 'but maybe this therapy will help? Or that one?'


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4yXBIigZbg

Post: #372

"The only question remaining is which calamity will strike first: an ice age, or a peak oil."

If you think an ice age is a probability you're just that much farther from any firm grasp on the trendlines, sorry.

But to follow your logic, does it really matter in the end?

The only thing that matters is what you're gonna do with the time you're given, ala Gandalf. That's it. Anything more is just a moses complex.

I mean, hey, if you want to bang out a few hundred more posts on this topic for the next couple years, be my guests, but there are other more fruitful things to do with your time.

The whole reason I took the (manosphere) red pill is I wanted to get laid more out of that sense of mortality. You know, tend to the bucket-list.

Life is precious and it goes by fast. Carpe diem.

Post: #373

Have you ever looked into the solar cycles? There is very strong evidence that the recent warming was related to the end of a warming cycle and we are now headed into a cooling cycle.

It makes sense to me that the sun is the greatest driver of our climate. Car emmissions and cow farts just dont seem as powerful. But im not a scientist.

As far as spending time looking into Peak Oil and Climate change. We are all wasting our time to various extent whether we are looking into or away from our fears, the unknown etc. Concerning these matters.

I like to compartmentalize my thinking in these matters so as not to slow down my efforts for bucket list items, game etc.. I have spent time consider the information and I choose to believe that modern industrial civilization is likely to experience a decline in quality of life in coming years, your mileage may vary. I also put that knowledge in a box when pursuing day to day life as if it doesnt exist. I live for the now.

To be honest ive learned to not speak of these matters to most folks as it is a time sink, similar to this thread. Most folks prefer to not know anyway and look away. . Perhaps this thread is an indulgence in what I deny myself often in conversation.

Post: #374

(03-30-2019 03:53 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  

(02-01-2019 05:26 AM)Oberrheiner Wrote:  Of course there is no political solution, politics is the problem.

Conservative want to conserve .. what exactly ?
Life just does not work this way, you either improve or you regress, there is no conservation possible - it's either up or down.

You need to build up your life in a way that the politics around you do not matter.
The muslims here did it, so technically it's possible.
How we manage (or don't), we will witness in our lifetime, but in any case this should be your number one priority, not peak oil, global warming, or whatever else the scare industry is currently busy with.

Free software is great, you just need to be realistic and understand that the GPL cannot force human nature to change, nothing can.
My projects are BSD-licensed, those who want (and can) get something out of it do, those who want to help can too, and the other morons .. they will not be changed by a license, let's get real.

This is often misunderstood but Linus said it himself, his OS works because its development was darwinistic.
The pirate party was always left/liberal and not darwinist, so it could never have worked containing such a fundamental contradiction.
Also, wasn't it full of women ?

I mean come on what is this, east germany ?


And I didn't take the worst picture, in some she looks like a 12-yo gamer boy, in others like a hippopotamus ..
How can you put your faith in someone like that ?

She can't manage her own body, but she should manage a country ? Hello .. ?

Oberrheiner was right. Physiognomy may be real.

Spitzel (rat), maybe even Stasi.

Julia Reda has just accused her party colleague of sexual abuse, and her party, The Pirates, of tolerating it. Compared him to Weinstein!

The accused is facing just one complaint, after another one has been already withdrawn. The complaint has not been investigated yet, but she has already decided and she is leaving Pirates.

Typisch Deutsch. Typically German.
Holy German actions are self-justyfying, no need to insult her with investigations.

What a bitch. Actually I heard her in radio two days ago, frothing, though in a noble case, still frothing, unbalanced as she is.
A party slut, perhaps. Started with SPD (socialists), moved to Pirates to play a female face, and now moving to the Greens. Yes, no chance for her to renew MEP mandate in her small party, so it is time not only to abandon ship but to put it ablaze! To buy some points with a new party. "Don't vote for Pirates!"

In an ironic way, she is a true pirate, cares only about herself.


A small, boutique party should never import front faces from a mainstream party.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/reda-p...i-101.html

Well, how surprising ..
What can I say, it's just politics.

Voting is like playing the lottery - except it's free and you never win of course.
It exists only so that people believe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

Well I've been there, and there isn't.
Embrace the tunnel my friends !

Post: #375

(03-30-2019 10:24 PM)questor70 Wrote:  "The only question remaining is which calamity will strike first: an ice age, or a peak oil."

If you think an ice age is a probability you're just that much farther from any firm grasp on the trendlines, sorry.

But to follow your logic, does it really matter in the end?

The only thing that matters is what you're gonna do with the time you're given, ala Gandalf. That's it. Anything more is just a moses complex.

I mean, hey, if you want to bang out a few hundred more posts on this topic for the next couple years, be my guests, but there are other more fruitful things to do with your time.

The whole reason I took the (manosphere) red pill is I wanted to get laid more out of that sense of mortality. You know, tend to the bucket-list.

Life is precious and it goes by fast. Carpe diem.

I came to conclusion that ice age will strike first, as it is possible to explain it as a climate catastrophe, natural disaster, and as such to declare humanity itself guilty , which should help with control efforts on the side of elite. As you noticed, everybody in the know was expecting that peak oil would strike already years ago. The tide was turnend by shale oil. Who did decide about it?
Maybe someone in control who thought it preferable to end it all with natural disaster, shale oil in this case being just a bridge to a natural calamity, and not to the great electric civilization? The fact that peak oil and ice age with high probabilty will strike in few years simultaneously is a coincidence extremely unlucky for humanity, but in a way lucky for its controllers. (...)

Whatever, if such considerations are worthless, then please explain inordinate interest in Jewish consipracy subejcts at this forum? Let us be clear: whatever Jewish conspiracy does or not exist, it will go down with peak oil and ice age, like tears in rain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoAzpa1x7jU
Why people feel that it is somehow commendable to investigate the place of Jews in the modern Western society, when this society is sliding towards collapse anyway?! Because it is easier to fight with people than with nature?

As for my interest in the subject, the subject may be seen as morbid from a modern perspective, but is a kind of ultimate secret which changes the way you see our society. The real forbidden knowledge.
Actually, I have said in another thread that I wish I had never learnt about peak oil -I learnt about it by accident, researching other subjects, have never been an activist like you - but you know, not everyone can take blue pill back.

Knowledge frees from illusions, too. Living in truth has a value in itself. What to do, what not to do. It suddenly connects you with reality. When studying modern philosophy or ethics, you may be confronted with so called ethics of cases, cases being thought expriements when you discuss problems like: As a Kantian, could you lie when Gestapo comes to your house and ask for Jewish tenants? Most famous is probably the infamous trolley problem, typically morbid English exercise in black humour (the English, being utilitarist, specilize in taking down ideas, not creating them), which was somehow later taken seriously by credulous Americans.
However, considering such problems in our reality you do know they are just that - experiments. No reality.
Try say to yourself: the trolley problem is real. It Is real. Do you believe it?!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem

I could not. Because it did not have 'the reality factor'.
Peak oil and ice age are thought experiments with enormous reality factor. There is an entertaining element of thought experiments, of adventure, of exploring new lands, too ( new for the time being, of course).
But above all, reality has quality in itself. Even in everyday life, people want 'real' stories, not fictional. News pretend to be real, not fictional. What do you want to read: 'My secret meetings with unicorns in real life', or 'Eat, Pray, Love' ?!

It changes how do you think about our society and its future.
Hm. One suddenly knows that academic career is an illusion not worthy of pursuing etc. Science is not mighty juggernaut of knowledge, but a veil of social control over unknown (the fact that solar minimum started being discussed only recently testifies to the pathetic state of our 'science'). No children for now. No long term debts. BUt maybe short term. Or maybe become a criminal like the guy in 'Breaking Bad' ? A revenge on enemy? Or maybe try to be a monk in Asia? And so on.

I could compare this situation to learning that deadly disease with high probability will kill me in few years. So what I will do in these next years?
But my perspective is opposite of yours in the sense that for me there is no bucket list anymore.