Post: #326

(03-18-2019 03:29 PM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Peak Oil is happenjng now or very soon.

Peak, Net Energy EROEI happenned in 2005.

When the reset or collapse starts there will be trillions of barrells of oil in the ground that will be to expensive to recover.

For this reason I think the Reset will happen when drilling, especially for shale oil, will stop.
The oil we will be left with will be the oil still coming out of the already drilled wells. And that in two years max.
OPEC does not have 3-6 millions barrels of spare capacity.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US...cline.html

A February 24 Wall Street Journal article by Bradley Olson and Rebecca Elliott should warn everyone of the impending slowdown. A key graph presented there shows that debt and equity issued by US shale producers declined to $22 billion in 2018, which is less than half the amount raised in 2016 and one-third the amount raised in 2012.

When one compares the total debt and equity issuance to Lower-48 onshore production lagged two years, one finds a close relationship. Lower-48 onshore output rose from three million barrels per day to 8.5 million barrels per day in 2018. However, the drop in the issuance of equity and borrowing suggests this production could fall by a third to six million barrels per day by the end of 2020 if the relationship holds.

Post: #327

I only wonder what are designs for Venezuela. Taking it offline now in order to save its oil for USA in the post-shale time?

Such a plan would already mean that there is an expectation of future international chaos which would make the oil import from the Middle East uncertain at least.

Post: #328

US wants Venezuela and Iran offline to prop oil price to support shale efforts.

When US shale declines soon, the associated debt will implode. US shale and fracking is a ponzi scheme.

The collapse will likely be triggered by higher energy price spike followed by price crash as it did in 2014. Energy deflation.

Post: #329

For anyone who does not yet believe in peak oil, think about this:

As never before, Saudis are now obsessed with oil price being too low, insisting on cuts, cuts in OPEC production. It may seem a reasonable strategy on their part, but remember that there are essentially two ways of earning more: either higher margin per barrel (Saudis preferred way now), or simply selling more barrels. That the latter is not being taken into account at all raises a suspicion that raising production is not possible any more.

Anyway, it is fun to have such a cartel: you never say, 'production fell', just 'production cut'.

Post: #330

(03-18-2019 04:01 PM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  US wants Venezuela and Iran offline to prop oil price to support shale efforts.

When US shale declines soon, the associated debt will implode. US shale and fracking is a ponzi scheme.

The collapse will likely be triggered by higher energy price spike followed by price crash as it did in 2014. Energy deflation.

Don't know. Venezuela market is extra heavy oil, which is very different than light oil which comes out of shale. Shale oil and heavy oil are two different markets.

Also, it is USA itself which suffers the most, as it is the biggest importer of Venezuela crude and has specially adapated rafineries to process it.

The shale market in USA is already too small - this is why USA exports shale oil AND still imports conventional oil at the same time. There was an attempt to make conventional oil by mixing heavy oil from Canadian tar sands and shale oil, but without much success.

I think that maybe denying Venezuela's oil to China may play a role, so it may be a kind of Monroe doctrine enforcement. Especially as USA is now in a trade war with China.

Post: #331

Denying the enemy energy and bolstering price through chaos while forcibg venezuelans to use dollars for currency.when the soveriegn debt crisis caused currency devaluation.

Its a cookie cutter deal. Irag,Iran, Libya, Syria, venezuela... All the same.

Post: #332

(02-17-2019 08:50 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  The North Pole speed journey has made into "Nature". The magnetic pole is predicted to make roughly the same distance between 2000-2020 which it made between 1900 and 2000.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00007-1

Something moves around the North Pole:

https://phys.org/news/2016-12-satellites....html#nRlv

Now the question, why does it move?

Post: #333

(03-18-2019 02:25 PM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  A more important metric than peak production is peak net Energy Returned on Energy Invested. We experienced peak net energy aproximately between 2005 and 2008. The lack of growing net energy creates an inability to service debt as the interest must be paid via growth. Growth is thermodynamicly impossible without expanding net energy to conduct work. Shale oil and fracking increased total production but the oil comes at a high cost which means a lower net to conduct work. The fact that most shale producers have never made a profit is a symptom of the peak net energy situation.

The oil industry cannot produce usable energy at a price that modern industrial civilization consumers can afford. Even with finance wizardry like NIRP, QE, Bailins etc the world economy is stalling.

The nexus of the grand solar minimum and peak net energy occurring at the same time presents quite a challenge to modern industrial civilization.

The concept of Energy Deflation is what we can expect to occurr over the next months. Oil prices will spike to a price that economies cannot afford, deflation will take root and reduce demand governments wil be forced to implement QE, NIRP. Oil prices will crash and the cycle will continue a race to the bottom...

...(prepper prose)

So many really bad assumptions there. The notion of peak net energy is dumb, because it ignores this central aspect of the shale oil boom:



Another bad assumption is oil prices shooting up. If they do spike up, they won't stay up in the long run because production will rise accordingly. The US alone has spare capacity that is greater than the entire current Saudi production. While it's true that shale hasn't been all that profitable earlier this decade, investments in technology and experience have slashed extraction costs -see chart above-. In the $60-$70 range shale oil is quite profitable, and at $100 you will see an incredible boom acriss the Bakken and other oil basins.

Your other bad assumption is peak oil, which is a prepper notion that has been trotted around for several decades now, to no avail. Oil reserves have been going up substantially, despite production going up; there is enough today for several centuries worth, and that doesn't even include future discoveries:




I'd suggest you start eating your rice and bean reserves, rice in particular will go bad. If there is a single bug egg in your container, it will definitely spoil after a couple of years.

Post: #334

Much of what uninformed folks say about shale oil and its technology is based on false assumptions braught forth by the EIA.

To meet EIA projections More than 1 MILLION shale gas and tight oil wells would need to be drilled in the top plays, at a cost of $5.7 TRILLION, and require 100% of proven reserves plus 60-73% of unproven resources. (Proven reserves have been demonstrated by drilling to be technically and economically recoverable; unproven resources are thought to be technically recoverable but have not been demonstrated to be economically viable – as such they are much less certain than proven reserves.)

One can only assume that the EIA’s optimism is based on technological improvements made over recent years. Technological advances have included longer horizontal laterals, a tripling of water and proppant injection per well, and more fracking stages. But as the data show, these improvements have only led to a faster depletion of oil and gas reserves, not a growth in the total amount of oil and gas that can be produced. Ultimately, technology can’t overcome core characteristics of shale — steep decline rates (wells decline between 70-90% in the first three years, and field declines without new drilling typically range from 20-40% per year) and variable reservoir quality, with “sweet spots” or “core areas” containing the highest quality reservoir rock typically comprising 20% or less of overall play area.

Tight oil and shale gas producers have focused their efforts and technological improvements on targeting these “sweet spots” and in many plays we are already witnessing the point of diminishing returns. But the EIA is counting on — and asking the American people to bank on — technological miracles overcoming physical limits.

A sound energy policy, however, should be based on reality.

Post: #335

Peak, Net oil has allready occurred. EROEI is the most important metric to modern industrial civilization.the reason global growth is stalling is because net energy available to do work is declining. Although the financial priests are casting spells to keep things going, they cannot stop the laws of thermodynamics.

Peak total oil production is a less important metric as it doesnt take into account energy inputs.

Modern industrial civilization requires conventional oil with high thermodynmic rewards, not shale.

Post: #336

This is an important chart when discussing oil price. Oil producers cannot make a profit at a price that consumers can afford. And conversely consumers cannot afford oil at a price that producers make any profit.

This is a HUGE PROBLEM and a symptom of peak, net oil.

Post: #337

Go to 3:40, when he starts talking about Saudi oil reserves, we haven't clue how much, it could be practically endless.

Post: #338

My grandfather used to tell me to hope in one hand and shit in other and see which on fills up quicker.

Hoping that the Saudi Oil reserves are "endless"... LMAO

The Saudis are going bankrupt. Thats not a symptom of a country with endless oil reserves.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-1...est-budget

I like Dan Pena though. Hes a tough motherfucker!

Post: #339

Book review of Heinberg’s “Afterburn: society beyond fossil fuels”

http://energyskeptic.com/2019/book-revie...sil-fuels/

Post: #340

One third of US grain reserves destroyed in last weeks flooding. This Grand Solar Minima is NOT going well.

Post: #341

Looks like $60 per barrel is too high for modern industrial civilization in 2019. Unfortunately, producers make no profit below 60.The upper price affordable boundary will only decrease from here. Peak, net oil and Energy deflation has arrived. Get ready for shit to get real soon.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-2...igh-prices

Post: #342

Demand will eventually decrease as a function of peak net oil not because of electric cars. Energy deflation will cause both the affordable price and usefull demand for oil to decrease. Few will understand when modern industrial civilization collapses from its current peak to something different, why oil is so cheap, yet so rare and expensive to extract....

Post: #343

(03-28-2019 08:06 AM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Looks like $60 per barrel is too high for modern industrial civilization in 2019. Unfortunately, producers make no profit below 60.The upper price affordable boundary will only decrease from here. Peak, net oil and Energy deflation has arrived. Get ready for shit to get real soon.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-2...igh-prices

What are you talking about? Industrial civilization ran just fine when it was 100$+ a few years ago.

Also, something cannot simultaneously be "cheap" and "rare and expensive to extract".

Post: #344

(03-29-2019 06:21 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Also, something cannot simultaneously be "cheap" and "rare and expensive to extract".

This was hamster logic that peak oilers dreamed up when the recession and the shale boom drove oil prices down.

Way back when peak oilers first clutched at the Matrix red pill/blue pill metaphor before the manosphere. The problem is that ANY entrenched way of looking at the world closes you off to new knowledge, hence risking becoming only a new kind of blue-piller who needs a new kind of red-pill.

That's where the peak oil movement is now. They had their day in the runup to 2008 but the remnant that remain have clutched at flat-earther-grade rationalizations to avoid accepting the reality that the can of consequences of peak oil has been successfully kicked down the road.

Post: #345

(03-28-2019 08:06 AM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Looks like $60 per barrel is too high for modern industrial civilization in 2019. Unfortunately, producers make no profit below 60.The upper price affordable boundary will only decrease from here. Peak, net oil and Energy deflation has arrived. Get ready for shit to get real soon.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-2...igh-prices

Industrial civilization can take no more than 25% decrease in oil consumption. Until 2025 we are to lose between 35% and 50% of the current oil production. So, things may start getting real around 2023 at the latest.

As for shale oil, quality issues could derail US shale:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Th...-Boom.html
Don't believe in 'pipeline contamination'. Quality is in a well, not in a pipeline. And crude oil is not jet fuel, which has to be perfectly pure.

Maybe the shale oil quality problems are the reason why Trump has just demanded greater oil flow from OPEC?

Post: #346

SamuelBRoberts.
1.Industrial civilization is teetering on the edge. There is nothing just fine about it especially not when energy prices are high. Perhaps you should take the time to review the price charts I posted a few posts back. Its shows oil price fluctuatuons effect on the economy in a descending pattern. .
2.the concept of energy deflation is what is driving the price of oil below the cost to extract, refine and distribute. Very few shale and fracking producers make any profit or ever have.

Questor70
1.The peak oil can was kicked down the road. You are correct. read my post earlier concerning shale and fracking and their depletion curves, technology and debt saturation. Its a fucking ponzi scheme.

Im open to "new" information, unfortunately you have not presented any.

Post: #347

(03-29-2019 09:42 AM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  SamuelBRoberts.
1.Industrial civilization is teetering on the edge. There is nothing just fine about it especially not when energy prices are high. Perhaps you should take the time to review the price charts I posted a few posts back. Its shows oil price fluctuatuons effect on the economy in a descending pattern. .

Let's keep pretending this chart doesn't even exist. Do you think extraction prices aren't going to drop even further with the introduction of AI and robotics? The whole mining/resource extraction industry is a prime avenue for the application of new technology, and we're just getting started.

Quote:2.the concept of energy deflation is what is driving the price of oil below the cost to extract, refine and distribute. Very few shale and fracking producers make any profit or ever have.

The richest man in the world (not including central bank debt holders) got there without making any profits for decades. Amazon and the internet infrastructure were built at a loss. Investors understand that once the infrastructure is in place, the billions spent will pay off, bigly. The graph beliw gives you an idea of the efficiency improvements that have been taking place with fracking, with wells yields going up 1000% in a decade.

I think big oil and the globalists who own it want to drive the smaller frackers into the ground and pick them up for cheap, but given how fast technology has been changing and improving their bottom line (see graph above) this might not even happen. Regardless, fracking is here to stay, and US production is slated to double to 20M barrel/day later next decade (that's twice Saudi Arabia's production). There's a half century's worth in the Bakken Basin alone, at the current rate of oil recovery, which is bound to change as technology is constantly improving.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakken_For...erable_oil

The Bakken Formation isn't even the biggest in the US:

https://eos.org/articles/largest-ever-u-...d-in-texas

Quote:U.S. geological survey discovers largest oil shale deposit yet

Largest Ever U.S. Shale Oil Deposit Identified in Texas

The Wolfcamp shale, which underlies a large swath of Texas roughly centered on the city of Midland, contains 20 billion barrels of oil that could be recovered with current technology.

According to preliminary estimates, the USGS believes the so-called Wolfcamp formation could contain as much as 20 billion barrels of oil worth as much as $900 billion. That would make it some three times bigger than North Dakota’s Bakken formation, the largest natural shale oil repository discovered to date. “The fact that this is the largest assessment of continuous oil we have ever done just goes to show that even in areas that have produced billions of barrels of oil there is still the potential to find billions more,” Walter Guidroz, coordinator for the USGS’s energy resources program, said in a statement.

The development and application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” methods, techniques and technology has enabled pioneering shale oil and gas companies to extract the petroleum liquids contained in vast, hydrocarbon-rich shale deposits across the U.S. Fast growing production has spurred investment in construction of new pipelines to transport shale oil and gas to refineries and storage/distribution hubs hundreds, at times thousands, of kilometers away. Refiners, in turn, needed to develop new processes and equipment to refine the heavy, high sulfur shale oil to produce a form of usable liquid petroleum.

Quote:Production of liquid petroleum and natural gas fuels from “unconventional” shale oil deposits by U.S. companies has dramatically shifted the balance of global oil and gas production and fueled an equally dramatic, long-term decline in world oil and gas prices…

Surging production of unconventional shale oil and gas provided the impetus for the U.S. to vault to the #1 position as the world’s largest oil producer. Furthermore, it appears there’s a lot more unconventional oil production potential held in US shale deposits. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in November 2016 announced that a team of its exploration geologists had discovered the largest deposit of U.S. shale oil yet. The find is in West Texas’s Permian Basin, a geologically defined area that has played a historic role in the history of U.S. and global oil and gas exploration and production.

...Walter Guidroz, program coordinator for the USGS Energy Resources Program, said in the USGS press release, “The fact that this is the largest assessment of continuous oil we have ever done just goes to show that, even in areas that have produced billions of barrels of oil, there is still the potential to find billions more.”

https://www.eniday.com/en/technology_en/...-increase/

It's almost like the doomers in this thread live in a parallel universe, the cognitive dissonance here is breathtaking.

Post: #348

I posted this earlier in the thread:

To meet EIA projections More than 1 MILLION shale gas and tight oil wells would need to be drilled in the top plays, at a cost of $5.7 TRILLION, and require 100% of proven reserves plus 60-73% of unproven resources. (Proven reserves have been demonstrated by drilling to be technically and economically recoverable; unproven resources are thought to be technically recoverable but have not been demonstrated to be economically viable – as such they are much less certain than proven reserves.)

One can only assume that the EIA’s optimism is based on technological improvements made over recent years. Technological advances have included longer horizontal laterals, a tripling of water and proppant injection per well, and more fracking stages. But as the data show, these improvements have only led to a faster depletion of oil and gas reserves, not a growth in the total amount of oil and gas that can be produced. Ultimately, technology can’t overcome core characteristics of shale — steep decline rates (wells decline between 70-90% in the first three years, and field declines without new drilling typically range from 20-40% per year) and variable reservoir quality, with “sweet spots” or “core areas” containing the highest quality reservoir rock typically comprising 20% or less of overall play area.

Shale. Oil. Is. A. PONZI. Scam.

Post: #349

Important metrics.

Post: #350

(03-29-2019 09:42 AM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Im open to "new" information

Yeah, right.

For instance, do you want me to post to article after article talking about peak oil DEMAND brought upon by electrification?

Start here:





Even if what Seba is talking about is overly optimistic, some of what he's going to say is highly likely and will, at the very least, take a bite out of PO consequences. And note, this lecture was BEFORE the infamous 2018 Geneva Auto show when almost ever automaker suddenly announced new long-range EVs.

I also see a lot of worst-case-scenario conjecture here as far as depletion goes, an error that made peakers discount unconventional in the first place until proven otherwise.

You guys are suffering from severe tunnel-vision and cherry-picking.