Post: #126

I'm watching bloomberg right now and it shows the dollar is up 21% against the dollar now. Is it possible?

Post: #127

DING DING DING.....USDRUB HIT 80 EURRUB 100

Post: #128

(12-16-2014 07:16 AM)Chengiz88 Wrote:  DING DING DING.....USDRUB HIT 80 EURRUB 100

It goes a bit down, maybe the central bank did something

Post: #129

(12-16-2014 06:51 AM)Gosh900 Wrote:  I think it's not even the oil prices plunge that is causing the ruble to fall now. There is a massive speculation against the ruble underway, probably lots of hedge funds are shorting the ruble heavily.

The exchange rate is now approaching 90 against the euro, and it's over 70 against the dollar.

Nope, or at least that isn't the only problem (or even the main one).

It is Russian banks and corporations doing a run on the ruble and into foreign currencies. Many Russian banks and corps have debt in Euros or Dollars, so they are trying to buy as much foreign currency as possible to make servicing their debt easier.

At this point, the CB of Russia is probably going to have to end the free-float and install some form of currency controls.

Edit:

Yep, looks like they have (temporarily at least) stopped the free-float:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16...sian-ruble

Post: #130

As a side note Russia was buying massive amounts of gold few months back. They must have been bracing themselves for the crimea/ukraine backlash.

Wonder when Obama will start taking profits on his long USDRUB trade??

Post: #131

any NA investments ideas? not sure I wanna hold RUB right now, but I feel there's money to be made.

Post: #132

Woke up this morning expecting to see the ruble drop like a rock even with the huge interest rate drop. Wasn't disappointed. Russia can't play by western rules and it can't afford to mess around with typical Keynesian crap. I'm reading that Russia halted Ruble-Dollar trading. I guess that's a start, but too little too late. I wonder if that includes a halt to Ruble-Euro trading?

Just like the west can't go straight up against the Russian military and needs to use pawns like Ukraine and guerrilla economics, Russia can't go straight up against the western debt/fraud economic model. It needs to do guerrilla economics and be unpredictable, not reactionary and predictable. Even if Russia reacts perfectly there will be pain in Russia. Once Putin/Russia accept that premise then it opens up a lot of options. Another thing is Russia seems to be afraid to burn bridges with Europe. They want to be a "reliable" gas supplier. How noble. Fuck noble! Russia even knows that the west is trying to get rid of Putin and they still allow this nonsense to happen.

Russia could have easily withstood western sanctions and even $50 oil for 6-9 months. But it can't withstand these self-inflicted screw-ups.

Whether you like Russia/Putin or not, you have to hate how these international bankers/financiers go around the world spreading chaos and instability (even in their "own" countries, as if they had any loyalty) with their Machiavellian economic/political/cultural tactics, ruining the lives of millions/billions of people. Well, we can't cleanse this world of private central banks under these present circumstances so hopefully the coming western economic implosion will result in the Federal Reserve, and the other privatized central banks, getting destroyed and all their highest ranking members are hunted down and expropriated of all their fraudulent wealth. I can dream.

Post: #133

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwoo...acktuesday

Black Tuesday in Russia?

Interesting too

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16...-new-ruble

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16...ing-rubles

Post: #134

(12-16-2014 10:49 AM)Chengiz88 Wrote:  As a side note Russia was buying massive amounts of gold few months back. They must have been bracing themselves for the crimea/ukraine backlash.

Wonder when Obama will start taking profits on his long USDRUB trade??

Sounds like a very good time for Putin to announce a gold standard and checkmate Wall Street.

Post: #135

I see this as a buying opportunity. The Russian ETF ERUS dropped below $10 for awhile today.

Oil will go up again, and so will the Russian market.

Post: #136

http://www.theverge.com/2014/12/16/74035...s-in-value

"Apple halts online sales to Russia as the ruble plunges in value."

Post: #137

Question for those of you following this news here: With currency devaluation like this, is the change in purchasing power (for someone with dollars on the ground) immediate or is there some delay as pricing for goods and services adjusts?

Post: #138

It's damn interesting to see how this will end.

Post: #139

(12-16-2014 11:24 PM)demolition Wrote:  Question for those of you following this news here: With currency devaluation like this, is the change in purchasing power (for someone with dollars on the ground) immediate or is there some delay as pricing for goods and services adjusts?

A few companies were a bit behind in prices and you could make a relatively cheaper purchase, but that's disappearing fast. Places like Apple suspended sales on their website, and IKEA are bringing forward price changes to this week. Those who haven't changed their prices will be doing so in the near future, probably even for Russian-made products.

Of course, it'll be interesting to see the market reaction when Putin delivers his annual speech on Thursday.

Post: #140

(12-17-2014 12:29 AM)Chaos Wrote:  It's damn interesting to see how this will end.

I fear badly. The markets don't see oil going back up too much anytime soon unfortunately. If not outright war on some level then maybe Putin get's tossed and that creates a whole host of other problems. Whoever might replace Putin will probably be worse and much more hardline I'd guess.

I would think that there is certainly no love lost for the West now among the average Russians. The US and EU have sanctioned their economy and banks which really is hurting them on a daily basis, and (as far as they know) the US and Saudis have specifically targeted it even further with an effort to push oil prices lower. It's all brought their economy to the brink. And from Russia's perspective the US and EU were the ones that created the Ukraine crisis and forced them to act as they did, rightly or wrongly.

I can only see Russia stepping further and further back from the west and reaching out more to Asia in the future. But who the hell knows what's going to happen in the next few months. If oil prices stay low it might just set off a recession across the globe including the US (where the energy sector is getting crushed along with all the jobs and capital expenditures that went along with it).

Post: #141

(12-16-2014 11:24 PM)demolition Wrote:  Question for those of you following this news here: With currency devaluation like this, is the change in purchasing power (for someone with dollars on the ground) immediate or is there some delay as pricing for goods and services adjusts?

Reporting from the ground :
I felt wonderful waking up on Tuesday and seeing USD shot up to 75 RUB. I must say prices have not changed that much since the dollar was around 35RUB. Of course it all depends what you're buying and where. For example: I can go to a nice restaurant and have a meal with my gf for about 800-1000 RUB - that's 7-9 USD. Food in general became very affordable in Russia for someone with dollars.
I went to a mall yesterday to see what I can get with the new exchange rate. I had the Amazon app on my phone to compare prices. I must say I found some deals and generally speaking,prices stayed at about 40RUB/USD level.
Bought myself Carrera sunshades for 3000 RUB- that's 43 bucks! The same thing on Amazon - around 75 USD. Clothes and shoes are very affordable now- you get them at least 50% off with current exchange rate.
What else...electronics are now about 20% cheaper versus US prices - don't know how long that will last. Rent stayed the same and real estate as well. I can rent a very nice apartment in a nice central location for 25-30K a month in Yekaterinburg -that's under 400USD!
Basically life is good in Russia if you are not Russian!
Any suggestions on what can I buy to profit somehow?

Post: #142

^ my iphone5 broke down two days ago. How are the prices on Apple products right now?

Post: #143

(12-17-2014 01:42 AM)Wayout Wrote:  

(12-16-2014 11:24 PM)demolition Wrote:  Question for those of you following this news here: With currency devaluation like this, is the change in purchasing power (for someone with dollars on the ground) immediate or is there some delay as pricing for goods and services adjusts?

Reporting from the ground :
I felt wonderful waking up on Tuesday and seeing USD shot up to 75 RUB. I must say prices have not changed that much since the dollar was around 35RUB. Of course it all depends what you're buying and where. For example: I can go to a nice restaurant and have a meal with my gf for about 800-1000 RUB - that's 7-9 USD. Food in general became very affordable in Russia for someone with dollars.
I went to a mall yesterday to see what I can get with the new exchange rate. I had the Amazon app on my phone to compare prices. I must say I found some deals and generally speaking,prices stayed at about 40RUB/USD level.
Bought myself Carrera sunshades for 3000 RUB- that's 43 bucks! The same thing on Amazon - around 75 USD. Clothes and shoes are very affordable now- you get them at least 50% off with current exchange rate.
What else...electronics are now about 20% cheaper versus US prices - don't know how long that will last. Rent stayed the same and real estate as well. I can rent a very nice apartment in a nice central location for 25-30K a month in Yekaterinburg -that's under 400USD!
Basically life is good in Russia if you are not Russian!
Any suggestions on what can I buy to profit somehow?

yeah that's about what I experienced when I was there in November.....seemed that most Ruble prices had not yet moved, so I bought some stuff (including a phone (!)). But at 70+ to the USD when does the party end? At some point the existing inventory of imports has to run out right? I guess most of the food prices has adjusted but will inflation eventually spike?

Post: #144

(12-17-2014 01:47 AM)Chaos Wrote:  ^ my iphone5 broke down two days ago. How are the prices on Apple products right now?

I don't know anything about Apple products but here's the link to a major retailer in Russia ( reminds me Best Buy a lot!) Mvideo The prices are listed and I susspect they are higher than in the US. I hear people are still bringing phones back to Russia from the US. Comment on the prices pls.

I was thinking more of small stores that sell Tag Heuer or Rolex watches - something small and resalable back home.

Post: #145

Russia may be antagonistic towards US and EU, but the one they truly fear is China

(12-17-2014 01:34 AM)Akula Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 12:29 AM)Chaos Wrote:  It's damn interesting to see how this will end.

I fear badly. The markets don't see oil going back up too much anytime soon unfortunately. If not outright war on some level then maybe Putin get's tossed and that creates a whole host of other problems. Whoever might replace Putin will probably be worse and much more hardline I'd guess.

I would think that there is certainly no love lost for the West now among the average Russians. The US and EU have sanctioned their economy and banks which really is hurting them on a daily basis, and (as far as they know) the US and Saudis have specifically targeted it even further with an effort to push oil prices lower. It's all brought their economy to the brink. And from Russia's perspective the US and EU were the ones that created the Ukraine crisis and forced them to act as they did, rightly or wrongly.

I can only see Russia stepping further and further back from the west and reaching out more to Asia in the future. But who the hell knows what's going to happen in the next few months. If oil prices stay low it might just set off a recession across the globe including the US (where the energy sector is getting crushed along with all the jobs and capital expenditures that went along with it).

Post: #146

Russia has a history of under-utilizing its natural resources. What Putin doesn't realize that if he only invested in his hinterlands, he would have no problem being economically self sufficient. See, I'm not speaking about oil, but the vast mineral resources located in Siberia. The Kolyma valley has the diamond producing capacity of South Africa, but it has been horribly mismanaged. The Sea of Okhotsk has a large amount of untapped fishing. The White Sea has many king crabs (even though they're seen as a scourge). Russia needs to learn how to employ, not enslave.

Especially since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia needs to invest in the Far East and Siberia, since most cities and towns in that region have experienced a catastrophic demographic decline. I understand that the weather there is brutal, however with a little incentive people would return to these regions with the hope of getting rich. Money > all. Oil is no longer the cure. Mineral resources and overall economic reinvestment in the hinterland is necessary to bring Russia out of its self-inflicted economic disaster

Post: #147

Wayout, are you living in Yekaterinburg?
I lived for some months there close to the Circus.

Flats used to be crazy expensive there!
Even shitty Soviet apartments that haven't been renovated in decades!

Post: #148

So Russia instituted 7 measures to stabilize the financial sector. No need to link to them because they don't fundamentally change the situation and appear to only help big businesses and also open up the opportunity for a lot of fraud. Doesn't appear any of it helps the average Russian. IOW, Russia will allow itself to keep getting pounded. I'm starting to sound like a broken record...

2 simple steps can fix this (and they're relatively cheap):
1. Go to a gold standard that has a lot of strict measures to prevent people from taking advantage of it and looting Russian gold.

2. Commit to cutting short term oil supply and testing the market's and Saudi Arabia's reaction to it. Maybe start at 500,000 barrels and be ambiguous (... until further notice) about how long you will do this for... and also make clear that Russia will organize with others to make even deeper cuts if necessary, in order to stabilize oil prices at $75 a Brent barrel. Make a big announcement when doing all this.

Oil is being talked down so Russia should talk it up and signal people to start betting on $75 oil which hopefully gets them betting on that and pushing oil up even before Russia begins cutting oil. Internally, 500,000 barrels x $45 a barrel (I'm not using the current price since it will obviously go down if Russia does nothing) = $22.5 million lost revenues a day by Russia; about $667 million a month if, IF, oil prices don't go up. If oil prices go up, the losses are obviously less. Regardless, Russia needs to put a floor on the oil price to help stabilize the oil market and the ruble.

Russia could easily sustain that cut for 6 months, until this initial shock of economic war starts to wear off at a cost of less than $4 billion. This also oil cut also helps the ruble. So you get a twofer out of it.

If Saudi Arabia shows itself to be conducting economic war against Russia on behalf of the USA by increasing production as Russia cuts, then Russia knows where it stands and can use other more political and violent measures to counteract lower oil prices AND/OR decide to go to the mat with Saudi Arabia and cut even more, hopefully with the help of others. Russia can handle cuts of 1 million barrels or more for a year or so. It'll hurt, but there won't be any devastation to the level like what is currently happening. Oil revenues are just one part of the economic situation. Russia may lose there with the cuts, but gain elsewhere, specifically in ruble stability.

As far as any arguments against cutting oil supply, the numbers don't lie.
1. It's not that costly at the levels mentioned above. Especially when compared to what Russia is currently doing.
2. Russia can control how much and how long. Not put in a position to react. It dictates and makes the west guess (and react).
3. Along with #2, Russia can quickly reverse course and add the oil back if necessary. They can moderate the cost side whenever they feel like it. Probably don't even need to do the full supply cut since the market reacts to words and announcements.

And if Russia doesn't want to do either of the 2 steps above, then the only option appears to be to turn the reigns over to that Sergei Glazyev guy. He's the only guy that has offered practical and intelligent insights on what to do.

Russia needs to stop acting like a tough guy who proves how tough he is by taking punches. Instead, how about delivering some punches.

Post: #149

I could visibly see the look of distress on people's faces today. My student's are mostly hopeless, admitting that Russia is fucked, at least in the short term. People are canceling their vacation plans. There was an argument on the metro car with like 5-10 people. I don't know what the topic was...but I've never seen this in all of the hours I've spent on the metro. Two of my classes, when I came to the class and said how is everyone, they responded with something like "not as good as you are". They assume just because you're American, that you're basking in the glory of holding dollars. I reminded them that I earn money here in rubles, so I am in the same boat as them. They are also resenting their expat colleagues who earn money in euros.

Sure, it may be a great time to visit here and really stretch those dollars out. But, I'm curious to see how this dark cloud will effect the general mood here. Living in a place that's already stoic and cold and now adding the currency collapse could be a very depressing environment. Not to mention increased resentment for the "newly rich foreigner".

Post: #150

(12-17-2014 01:09 PM)presidentcarter Wrote:  I could visibly see the look of distress on people's faces today. My student's are mostly hopeless, admitting that Russia is fucked, at least in the short term. People are canceling their vacation plans. There was an argument on the metro car with like 5-10 people. I don't know what the topic was...but I've never seen this in all of the hours I've spent on the metro. Two of my classes, when I came to the class and said how is everyone, they responded with something like "not as good as you are". They assume just because you're American, that you're basking in the glory of holding dollars. I reminded them that I earn money here in rubles, so I am in the same boat as them. They are also resenting their expat colleagues who earn money in euros.

Sure, it may be a great time to visit here and really stretch those dollars out. But, I'm curious to see how this dark cloud will effect the general mood here. Living in a place that's already stoic and cold and now adding the currency collapse could be a very depressing environment. Not to mention increased resentment for the "newly rich foreigner".

How would this affect an American making a visit to SPB or Moscow with game as a primary goal? Wouldn't it be a net plus, potentially making the real hotties more accessible? If a girl is stressed or depressed that can often make her crave stimulation, distraction, new experiences, particularly with someone exotic who offers a window to a different world.
I can see how it would cause some resentment and potentially make being buddy buddy with some guy at the bar more difficult, but that wouldn't bother me as long as I didn't get beaten or stabbed by some ultra nationalist.