Post: #76

Yep WTI currently trading at 69.05 on my screen.

Came across interesting chart from DB - Oil price to balance budgets Saudi 104 USD Iran 131 USD Libya 181 USD. Wonder how long OPEC will stand such low prices. Oh and i love the narrative they are trying to spin. OPEC are worried about US shale oil, this has nothing to do with Russia!!!

Post: #77

Ha ha ha! People are talking about nuclear war in that zero hedge post.

I'm glad the ruble is falling, cheaper trips for Westerners.

Post: #78

USD/RUB over 50

Post: #79

USD/RUB 52.8..........wow Moscow on sale soon to Americans? If oil doesnt turn soon will we see 60 or 65?

Post: #80

(12-07-2014 09:05 PM)MichaelCorleone Wrote:  USD/RUB 52.8..........wow Moscow on sale soon to Americans? If oil doesnt turn soon will we see 60 or 65?

A shit ton of US shale and Canadian oil sands production isn't profitable below ~$60-65 from what I've read so I'd assume there is some sort of "floor" at this point. I think a lot of the OPEC countries need $75+ oil to keep their corrupt governments going.

At this point I'm more worried about Russia saying "eh, fuck it we'll take back Ukraine and then some" as opposed to low oil prices somehow causing Putin to back off or get ousted. Especially if the US and EU decide to cut Russia out of the SWIFT system.

Post: #81

(11-27-2014 07:22 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  Ha ha ha! People are talking about nuclear war in that zero hedge post.

I'm glad the ruble is falling, cheaper trips for Westerners.

Amen brother, I am getting ready to book my visa to Russia soon. If the exchange becomes 1USD - 60Rub pretty sure I'd live like a king for 2 weeks even in Moscow & St. Petersburg

Post: #82

My Starbucks coffee costs $2.25 in NYC and there's plenty of Russian girls walking around

Post: #83

A Big Mac at McD's next to Red Square is now about $1.75...Something has to give. And it will be the Big Mac.

Post: #84

(12-07-2014 09:48 PM)presidentcarter Wrote:  A Big Mac at McD's next to Red Square is now about $1.75...Something has to give. And it will be the Big Mac.

heh yeah I agree. FYI the Big Mac Meal in Kiev was around $3.50 in total when I was there in November...

Post: #85

(12-07-2014 09:19 PM)Akula Wrote:  

(12-07-2014 09:05 PM)MichaelCorleone Wrote:  USD/RUB 52.8..........wow Moscow on sale soon to Americans? If oil doesnt turn soon will we see 60 or 65?

A shit ton of US shale and Canadian oil sands production isn't profitable below ~$60-65 from what I've read so I'd assume there is some sort of "floor" at this point. I think a lot of the OPEC countries need $75+ oil to keep their corrupt governments going.

At this point I'm more worried about Russia saying "eh, fuck it we'll take back Ukraine and then some" as opposed to low oil prices somehow causing Putin to back off or get ousted. Especially if the US and EU decide to cut Russia out of the SWIFT system.

EU / US will never cut Russia out of swift, there too worried about a completing payment system being setup and challenging their global hegemony. Also Putin is now making overtures for some kind of agreement, his state of the russian union speech was very interesting for Russia watchers. The sanctions are hurting and capital is fleeing. Interesting to note Rosneft CEO Sechin (Putin right hand man) predicted oil @ 60 USD

Post: #86

USD/RUB 55.985

At this point it is getting ridiculous and it just fell to this all time low AFTER the Russian Central Bank hiked rates. At this point, I have no idea where the bottom is. Oil fell below $60 a barrel today, which I cannot believe either.

Post: #87

1€=72,30rubles

Just WOW! Perfect time to plan a trip to Moscow

Post: #88

Should hit 60 today. I wonder if there is a correlation between continued weakness in the ruble and anti-American/west sentiment on the ground. I guess I'll find out in a few weeks.

Post: #89

(12-15-2014 07:30 AM)BTman Wrote:  Should hit 60 today. I wonder if there is a correlation between continued weakness in the ruble and anti-American/west sentiment on the ground. I guess I'll find out in a few weeks.

And like clockwork ...

Russian Ruble Hits 60 to the USD as Currency Collapse Continues

USD/RUB 60.551

HSLD

Post: #90

Do the real estate prices go down now ?

Post: #91

any brothers in russia right now? how are things on the ground? if things were tough at 50 a month ago, i can't imagine what it is like now

mild winter predicted for europe. that will really turn the screws

Post: #92

(12-15-2014 10:17 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  Do the real estate prices go down now ?

Only for those with hard currency. If you're paid in rubles, the prices actually go up because of the inflationary effects the ruble is suffering right now.

HSLD

Post: #93

So prices in Russia for foreign visitors have effectively almost halved in the last 12 months, and are still in freefall. At this rate it may actually become a 'bargain' country to visit in 2015!

Just a shame their visa requirement regime is still so ridiculous.

Post: #94

Beneficially won't this improve the local economy, in terms of production not being outsourced ?

How long would this last do you imagine ?

Post: #95

(12-15-2014 10:17 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  Do the real estate prices go down now ?

Russia's real estate market is notoriously stubborn. Not even the 2008-9 crisis is fully priced-in yet.

(12-15-2014 10:36 AM)zatara Wrote:  So prices in Russia for foreign visitors have effectively almost halved in the last 12 months, and are still in freefall. At this rate it may actually become a 'bargain' country to visit in 2015!

Not really. The supply chain for perishables is only ~3 weeks deep. Non-perishables generally adjust within a couple of months.
There are some good deals on very slow moving stock (photo and hifi gear, cars, etc. but that is about all).

Post: #96

(12-15-2014 11:14 AM)Constitution45 Wrote:  Beneficially won't this improve the local economy, in terms of production not being outsourced ?

How long would this last do you imagine ? I am seeing the people I know in Russia, still carrying on like business is usual, going gigs, bars etc. These are standard middle class Russians as well.

There is somewhat of an upswing at the moment as many have decided to stay in Russia for Christmas. The exchange rate adjustments have made travel abroad unattractive for the time being. I expect the tourism industries of Italy, Spain and Greece to take a severe hit this coming January.

Post: #97

(12-15-2014 11:14 AM)Constitution45 Wrote:  Beneficially won't this improve the local economy, in terms of production not being outsourced ?

How long would this last do you imagine ?

The ruble is staying weak as long as oil stays low. If oil stays low for the next couple of years, then the ruble is staying weak for the next couple of years.

That said, Russia seriously needs to reindustrialize. This weak ruble acts similar to a tariff in that it makes imports more expensive. Import substitution is already happening in the agricultural sector, but more work is needed in the manufacturing sector. Also, Russia should be easing its tourist visa process to boost the tourism sector since the weak ruble makes visiting Russia a lot cheaper for foreigners.

Post: #98

Called it yet again.

I was talking about this 6 months ago while the Putin shills in the Ukraine thread were wailing about how the Chinese pipeline were going to ushering in a new era for Russia. The Russian Petroeconomy is their biggest liability as a state.

I'm in the oil business, we saw signs of this happening early. It's very much a creation of the US continued expansion of upstream oil & gas. Entirely calculated and not particularly unforeseen. Of course there are people that will tell you that this has no effect. The aforementioned shills doing damage control here like Bagdad Bobs on overtime.

Post: #99

I can't fucking believe it....it's over 80
I would like to see Putin's face ahahahah

Post: #100

(12-15-2014 11:16 AM)DaveR Wrote:  Not really. The supply chain for perishables is only ~3 weeks deep. Non-perishables generally adjust within a couple of months.
There are some good deals on very slow moving stock (photo and hifi gear, cars, etc. but that is about all).

Even if prices adjust upwards due to inflation with a 50%+ devaluation in the currency the country can't fail to get cheaper for tourists, though.

ie if an average beer was 200 rubles in St Petersburg last year as of today thats only 2.50eur. A year ago it would have been equivalent to 5eur. So the cost for me, as a Euro user, to go on a night out in St Petersburg has effectively halved... That is unless inflation is running at 100% per 12 months (and a beer now costs 400 rubles) which I don't believe it is? Going from your location flag I'm guessing you'll have first hand experience though?