Post: #26

(02-18-2014 11:25 PM)jimukr104 Wrote:  

(02-18-2014 10:48 PM)Blunt Wrote:  Yanukovich has continually shot himself in the foot. At every lull in the protests his security forces provide some sort of provocation for events to once again spiral into riots.

The only smart thing that he has done so far is to close the roads to Kiev, which he should have been doing every weekend starting back in December. Controlling traffic is something that he could have gotten away with in the eyes of the West and it would have severely limited the size of these protests.

Now that the ultras are fighting alongside the nationalists I see no chance of de-escalation. I've met a few ultras and these are kids who have nothing to live for except getting drunk and fighting at football games. I'm sure this is already well known to most EE veterans but ultras (extreme football fans) devote their attention into organizing mass brawls instead of watching football. In other words, these guys are pretty hard.

The nationalists will likely continue to take advantage of the relative complacency of local security forces in Western Ukraine to amass arms which will causes further escalation, especially now that both sides are openly shooting each other.

The only silver lining for Yanukovich is that it will make it easier for him to call a state of emergency, with deaths in the police nearing double digits. However, this many deaths will only strengthen the West's resolve to remove him from power and he will have lost legitimacy with less interested observers. Putin will have to come to a decision soon of making a strong show of support for Yanukovich's actions or washing his hands clean. While Russia certainly doesn't want Ukraine to drift west, I doubt that the oligarchs or Putin will continue support him in office for much longer even if this mess clears up, given how he is universally disliked and mistrusted.

Actually the protesters are to blame today..chances are they want to start shit knowing US will sanction . Yanuk might need to threaten weapons shipped to Iran and Syria if sanctions imposed .Russia of course can sanction the west with energy cutoff.
if opposition gets into office with a western agenda.. Ukraine might divide.Regional governors already are figuring on doing so. They will call i nRussia as peace keepers.

You are probably right about the protesters instigating the violence, though I doubt that Yanukovich responded in a proportionate manner.

Yanukovich is likely acting to execute broad directives he receives from his oligarch backers and Putin. He is however incapable of executing these plans, or guilty of choosing incapable security chiefs. As they say, both are worst.

Even if this ends in a division of the country I do not see Yanukovich remaining in power in the East.

Post: #27

(02-18-2014 11:37 PM)NY Digital Wrote:  Just curious, is there any chance or sense in Western Ukraine joining Poland as a type of commonwealth?

Polish–Ukrainian War (1918-1919)


Lwów Eaglets

Post: #28

The army is getting involved: http://lb.ua/news/2014/02/19/255986_lebe...ravku.html

Post: #29

As I expected, this morning the Lviv peoples Rada basically declared itself independent of Yanukovich.

"The regime has begun active military action against people […] Dozens of people have been killed in Kyiv and hundreds have been wounded […] Fulfilling the will of society, the executive committee of the Lviv region's council, the People's Rada, is assuming full responsibility for the fate of the region and its citizens,"

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/190981.html

Do not expecting them to be joining Poland. More likely an Oakland Raiders fan would support the 49ers.

Post: #30

The oligarchs will throw Yanukovich under the bus if he can't resolve this soon. Then Ukraine can welcome their new EU masters.

Post: #31

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_LFrMcoEm4#t=1325496

Night two of Yanukovich's crackdown attempt will beginning soon. Yesterday was the first day of this planned activities that the government calls an "anti-terrorist operation."

His moves since yesterday:
- cut off flow of new protestors by isolating Kyiv from the country (highway, railways) and the center from the periphery (metro, roads).
- potential support from 500 paratroopers
- further corner the 10k on the square to a 500m x 500m space
- threaten to jail the opposition for participating in a coup

If well executed, it seems it would be hard for him to fail at least this battle.

Post: #32

Woman gets shot:

Post: #33

(02-18-2014 08:47 PM)rastignac Wrote:  

(02-18-2014 08:44 PM)unbowed Wrote:  Interesting article on the US involvement in Ukraine:
http://www.voltairenet.org/article182188.html

I wonder what kind of response Putin has in store after the Olympics.

My opinion: this planned crackdown was at Putin's instigation, and the 2 billion loan went through yesterday. He didn't wait to make a move. Olympics provide great cover.

I don't think it has anything to do with commands coming from Putin... that's the same ridiculous line that has been repeated by the American media and the Kiev Post since the Oranges were voted out 2010. All along, Yanukovych's position has been to play all sides against each other for the benefit of his supporters (Mogilijevich, Akhmetov, etc). His actions clearly show that the shots are being called from within the Ukrainian power structure.

The lack of an earlier crackdown was for two reasons:
1. waiting for the EU to make an offer (with cash they don't have, but in Ukraine hope springs eternal).
2. waiting for Russia to come through on its promises of Eurobond purchases, which it has now done.

Post: #34

DaveR,

How does a man who bought billions in worthless bonds to keep Ukraine financially solvent not have anything to do with its politics?

If VY is deposed, the new government, whatever it might look like, will most certainly default on Russian debt.

Dave, how is Putin NOT calling the shots?

Post: #35

(02-19-2014 10:41 AM)svenski7 Wrote:  DaveR,

How does a man who bought billions in worthless bonds to keep Ukraine financially solvent not have anything to do with its politics?

If VY is deposed, the new government, whatever it might look like, will most certainly default on Russian debt.

Dave, how is Putin NOT calling the shots?

They may be worthless to any other country, but Ukraine is one of Russia's largest trading partners.

All of the experts, even the Western-leaning ones, discount the line that Yanukovych is Putin's puppet.

There is no such thing as 'politics' in the Western sense in Ukraine. Most of the deputies are businessmen who need those positions for leverage and protection, and that applies to both sides.


ANd... my source is a translator who does a lot of work for Party of Regions deputies.

Post: #36

(02-19-2014 10:28 AM)DaveR Wrote:  

(02-18-2014 08:47 PM)rastignac Wrote:  

(02-18-2014 08:44 PM)unbowed Wrote:  Interesting article on the US involvement in Ukraine:
http://www.voltairenet.org/article182188.html

I wonder what kind of response Putin has in store after the Olympics.

My opinion: this planned crackdown was at Putin's instigation, and the 2 billion loan went through yesterday. He didn't wait to make a move. Olympics provide great cover.

I don't think it has anything to do with commands coming from Putin... that's the same ridiculous line that has been repeated by the American media and the Kiev Post since the Oranges were voted out 2010. All along, Yanukovych's position has been to play all sides against each other for the benefit of his supporters (Mogilijevich, Akhmetov, etc). His actions clearly show that the shots are being called from within the Ukrainian power structure.

The lack of an earlier crackdown was for two reasons:
1. waiting for the EU to make an offer (with cash they don't have, but in Ukraine hope springs eternal).
2. waiting for Russia to come through on its promises of Eurobond purchases, which it has now done.

Good points here. It is pretty easy to go back and see the historical animosity between Putin and Yanukovich. I remember much I saw in the Ukrainian press the last few years highlighted the animosity. Relations had been pretty bad... because he was playing all sides against each other. It is a maddening simplification in the western press that VK as always been just this puppet of Putin.

But my sense is that the dynamic changed with the bond purchase and package and VY became pretty beholden to Putin, after which it becomes hard not to see sevnski7's points and imagine him very active in the UKR govt activities of the last few months.... if he were truly calling the shots though a crackdown would have been more immediate, brutal and effective.

An interesting analysis piece on why Putin has something at stake in Ukraine.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/11665...-nightmare

"I have yet to interview Putin on the matter, but years of observing the man and the system he's built all point to one thing: he is watching Ukraine very closely and shaking his head. Instead of swiftly clearing the protests before they had a chance to gather momentum and not allowing them into the political system, Yanukovich dithered, thereby weakening himself."

Post: #37

(02-19-2014 12:21 AM)Blunt Wrote:  

(02-18-2014 11:25 PM)jimukr104 Wrote:  

(02-18-2014 10:48 PM)Blunt Wrote:  Yanukovich has continually shot himself in the foot. At every lull in the protests his security forces provide some sort of provocation for events to once again spiral into riots.

The only smart thing that he has done so far is to close the roads to Kiev, which he should have been doing every weekend starting back in December. Controlling traffic is something that he could have gotten away with in the eyes of the West and it would have severely limited the size of these protests.

Now that the ultras are fighting alongside the nationalists I see no chance of de-escalation. I've met a few ultras and these are kids who have nothing to live for except getting drunk and fighting at football games. I'm sure this is already well known to most EE veterans but ultras (extreme football fans) devote their attention into organizing mass brawls instead of watching football. In other words, these guys are pretty hard.

The nationalists will likely continue to take advantage of the relative complacency of local security forces in Western Ukraine to amass arms which will causes further escalation, especially now that both sides are openly shooting each other.

The only silver lining for Yanukovich is that it will make it easier for him to call a state of emergency, with deaths in the police nearing double digits. However, this many deaths will only strengthen the West's resolve to remove him from power and he will have lost legitimacy with less interested observers. Putin will have to come to a decision soon of making a strong show of support for Yanukovich's actions or washing his hands clean. While Russia certainly doesn't want Ukraine to drift west, I doubt that the oligarchs or Putin will continue support him in office for much longer even if this mess clears up, given how he is universally disliked and mistrusted.

Actually the protesters are to blame today..chances are they want to start shit knowing US will sanction . Yanuk might need to threaten weapons shipped to Iran and Syria if sanctions imposed .Russia of course can sanction the west with energy cutoff.
if opposition gets into office with a western agenda.. Ukraine might divide.Regional governors already are figuring on doing so. They will call i nRussia as peace keepers.

You are probably right about the protesters instigating the violence, though I doubt that Yanukovich responded in a proportionate manner.

Yanukovich is likely acting to execute broad directives he receives from his oligarch backers and Putin. He is however incapable of executing these plans, or guilty of choosing incapable security chiefs. As they say, both are worst.

Even if this ends in a division of the country I do not see Yanukovich remaining in power in the East.

As has been mentioned by many pposters.. the police have been held back artificially because Yanuk trying to appease the West. In USA(i assume EU also) NO way would we hold back. I say we because I am a retired cop so I know quite well what we are legally allowed to do and otherwise. The minute buildings are stormed, swat teams would take out the "terrorists(protesters). Cops will shoot at any action that can cause serious injury or death. Molotov cocktails and bricks count for sure, plus the protesters have guns many of them.
once protesters start the violence NO gov't authority would be able to get the cops to stop. unless there is a pull back. We learned in the academy cops don't RUN away.. we tactically retreat. But we can open fire on any civilian throwing a brick or firebomb at us. It is in NYS law.. plus again we answer to the commissioner NOT the mayor , BUT being unionized we can't be bullied to play NICE because telling us to stand down in face of threat or our duty would be a form of corruption. In essence Yanuk holding the cops from doing their sworn duty to protect the city, including property, is a violation of the oath cops generally take.
Considering I am telling you what NYPD cops would do, that should mean something considering without bragging NYPD is considered the premiere law enforcement agency in America if not the world. Our instructors teach at the FBI academy in Quantico, we have a video unit that actually makes videos that other depts around the world watch and we are a combination FBI and CIA. Our anti terrorism unit actually has cops stationed around the world.
My point is-Ukrainian police are following accepted riot control norms. My only fault with them is :
1.that they are being to restrained because of Yanuk caring about world opinion.(when i bashed heads you think I care what the French think?LOL)
2. They are outnumbered and maybe outgunned.. they need national guard( military) to help.This would end things quicker and save lives. Why you ask?
because the peaceful protesters and moderate ones would mostly go home and leave only the extremist groups. The extremist groups are the ones inciting the mob and fighting back, thus making the cops come down harder. If they stopped hiding among the greater peaceful Maiden..the police could finally have it out with them.

Another proof of them being outgunned is look at the death statistics. Cops are in equipment meant to protect them and they are dying at a high rate. Statistically the % of dead cops to protesters is staggering. There is at least 30 times more protesters than cops but the death ratio is like 2-1.
Also many of the protesters died from other reasons than direct police contact. 2 died of heart attacks, one vehicle accident and a few even died by fire..that they started. But probably 100% of the cops are dying from direct protester violence.

Post: #38

"It is a maddening simplification in the western press that VK as always been just this puppet of Putin."
Finally.. please inform the bias western media.
I am pretty sure Yanuk is an embarrassment to Putin. The Russian people know yanuk is an oligarch criminal and Putin has crack down on guys just like Yanuk. it makes Putin look like a hypicrit with his own voters if you ask me.However, Yanuk is the chosen leader of the political party that represents the 50% of the country that is Russain culture(Russains plus the half that think they are Russain lol).
So he is forced to back Yanuk.. he certainly can't back the Western opposition that has been stirring anti Russian Russo-phobia.
It would be like us backing American hating freedom fighters... oh wait we did it already. Bin laden and the Taliban was our prize fighter in the Afghan war against the Soviets. We all know how that turned out.
but Yanuk is certainly no more a puppet of Russia than Canada or Mexico is except for 2 facts:
1.Ukraine needs Russia...
2. If anything Yanuk is a puppet of his own voters. He won because he promised better relations with Russia. .this is important to at least have the voters in Ukraine.

Most of his actions were not what Putin wanted. .for example Yanuk joined Customs union as observer status only. He didn't join because he was well aware that most of the country wasn't on board. Same can be said as to why he didn't take EU trade pact.
Again if one makes a psychological profile of Yanuk.. all we can conclude is that he plays in the middle and leans both ways without making commitments neither East nor West.This makes sense in a political sense because the country is divided almost equally. I am sure this frustrates the EU as well as Russia.

Problem is that he pockets cash that his treasury receives from both Russia and the West. He is like the drug addict son who keeps going back to his divorced parents trying to get money to support his habit by using guilt lol.
The same as most Presidents Ukraine has had.

Post: #39

^Mayor appoints the Commissioner, so yeah you do have to listen to what the Mayor says. The Mayor is calling the shots at the top level.

NYPD is not the premiere law wnforcement agency in the world, that made me actually lol. Maybe in terms of normal cops but thats all you are. Thats like saying 81st Airborne is the most elite military unit in the world, its just not even close to the truth.

Post: #40

Look at this picture from last year. The two are more awkward than Obama and Putin. Not a lot of love here. (good article by the way of the Russian and Ukrainian view of the world that matches my experience. http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/201...ns-denial/)

Imagine the Donetsk region joining Russia, Yanukovich would probably fear for his life. Putin would replace him in a second even for regional leadership.

Re: military escalation. It looks like VY sacked one guy today and went with someone else. Hypothesis is the first guy resisted crackdown or was deemed unreliable. We'll see how obedient troops down the line are.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26265808

Post: #41

Lest we forget the matter at hand.

By the way. I can suggest Twitter game. There are lots of emotionally vulnerable quality Ukrainian women tweeting about events who are happy to reach out to informed, concerned guys from abroad. (And some are in NY, CA) Build a pipeline.

Post: #42

(02-19-2014 01:45 PM)MHaes Wrote:  ^Mayor appoints the Commissioner, so yeah you do have to listen to what the Mayor says. The Mayor is calling the shots at the top level.

NYPD is not the premiere law wnforcement agency in the world, that made me actually lol. Maybe in terms of normal cops but thats all you are. Thats like saying 81st Airborne is the most elite military unit in the world, its just not even close to the truth.

says you... BAD analogy! I will let you figure out why.

"Imagine the Donetsk region joining Russia, Yanukovich would probably fear for his life. Putin would replace him in a second even for regional leadership. "

That's what i said.... Putin would have to go after Yanuk...he is after all a confirmed corrupt oligarch who makes bad press.Also Yanuk doesn't like being told what to do...especially from a short guy!

Post: #43

(02-19-2014 03:45 PM)jimukr104 Wrote:  BAD analogy! I will let you figure out why.

There is no 81st. There is the 82nd and then there's 101st.

Post: #44

^81st is so elite they are on double secret probation

Post: #45

It was reported here in the western media that Ukrainian police are purposely shooting the protesters in the eyes with their rubber bullets.

Post: #46

As soon as Sochi is over - Putin will crack down.
100s, perhaps 1000s will die.

He is playing for keeps.

Post: #47

(02-19-2014 05:58 PM)Pizdetz Wrote:  As soon as Sochi is over - Putin will crack down.
100s, perhaps 1000s will die.

He is playing for keeps.

Putin would only come in I think to safeguard a split..as peace keepers. If the nationalistic Westerners decide they want to control 100% of Ukraine...well good luck with that. i guess than the U.N. would help in the situation.
Putin wouldn't impose more than that because he doesn't want the East and South turn against him.
he will never own Ukraine...nor would he really want to..it goes against the Russain security theory of buffer zones. That is like the running military strategy going back from the Czars. He just doesn't want Nato closer. And he wants the trade to continue with him.
Question is can the split be done like Czech republic and Slovakia...peacefully.And what will it mean? probably more of a paper split than any thing else.

Post: #48

Ok just want to appeal to you guys to realize how the Western media is handling this.
I have seen many of the articles and read the comments. I have written comments stating facts that some of the ignorant Americans., Canadians and Europeans are naive about.
On half the posts i have made... after a few minutes my post disappears. WTF? it has happen on mostly USA cites( 1 eURO SITE).
Is this censorship? Is it possible I leaked a tidbit or 2 that the western media doesn't want the public to know about?

Post: #49

(02-19-2014 07:42 PM)jimukr104 Wrote:  Ok just want to appeal to you guys to realize how the Western media is handling this.
I have seen many of the articles and read the comments. I have written comments stating facts that some of the ignorant Americans., Canadians and Europeans are naive about.
On half the posts i have made... after a few minutes my post disappears. WTF? it has happen on mostly USA cites( 1 eURO SITE).
Is this censorship? Is it possible I leaked a tidbit or 2 that the western media doesn't want the public to know about?

Are you using disqus? Sometimes I notice that I can't find what I posted unless I click on my profile to see my posts.

Bottom line, this better for us guys or worse? To be honest, if Ukraine movies toward the EU, I think it would be worse as the women will adopt more of the negative Western ways. Maybe I am not seeing it clearly enough.

Post: #50

Some solid footage post crackdown yesterday. Be prepared to see a few people dead and dying.