Post: #1

Here is a video from money week magazine basically predicting the financial collapse of the UK. Even though they're trying to get you to buy their magazine its still a very interesting video which is extremely interesting about the state of Britains finances. Here is the link to the video. http://info.moneyweek.com/urgent-bulleti...wgodnBIASg

If you don't want to watch the video but still want to know what's said here is a link to the transcript http://info.moneyweek.com/urgent-bulleti...wgodnBIASg

Im interested to here what you guys think of it.

Post: #2

That video raises some important points but contains even more right-wing fearmongering. It's kind of a cheap but always powerful trick to show graph by graph how national debt grew over the years yet these graphs count the debt in billions of pound, rather than counting debt as a % of GDP which brings the numbers into a realistic perspective. Of course, there were more £billions in public debt in 1998 than there were in 1948 because there is inflation, which makes a 1948 £billion an enormous sum (in terms of purchasing power) compared to a 1998 billion.

What the makers of the video also don't mention is the fact that in many Western countries, including the US and the UK, the highest reduction rates of public debt have coincided with the expansion of welfare states in the 50s and 60s. Interestingly, all the neoliberal policies these countries introduced from the 1980s onwards didn't help shit when it comes to debt reduction. I don't buy into that free-market mythology that public spending and welfare states are the causes of all evil. Apparently, there are countries like Norway that have their shit together, afford themselves an extensive welfare state and still run relatively low deficits while they didn't engage in senseless wars and military spending they can't afford.

And even when countries go bankrupt - it's not the end of the world. Remember Argentina? In the 90s they did everything what the IMF demanded: tax cuts, welfare cuts, privatizations, deregulations in the financial sector. Their economy collapsed after that ambitious debt reduction program. Finally, they got out of it because they invested heavily in infrastructure projects, jobs, education, house building and welfare plus they supported workers cooperatives and renationalized some industries - exactly the kind of measures that the makers of that video detest.

But I admit, there is a lot of problematic stuff going on in the welfare state sector. I don't see how the millions of retirees that get older and receive money for much longer than it used to be can be supported by public retirement funds when there are less and less people who pay into the system due to declining birth rates. This is definitely a thing that cannot be maintained in the now existing form. Even when the European states had spiking birth rates, the numbers would never be enough to finance the armies of grampas and grandmas that are waiting for their money. This seems to be a global phenomena, though. China, India, Latin America and the Arab states will face the very same problem as they have massively aging populations, too.

Post: #3

Post: #4

There'll always be an England....now carry on.

Post: #5

I actually heard different.

Quote:IMPROBABLE as it seemed a year ago, the British economy is now the envy of the rich world. On January 21st the IMF predicted growth of 2.4% in 2014. Among large advanced economies only America is expected to do better. Firms are rushing to take on staff, sending the unemployment rate tumbling—and creating a conundrum for the Bank of England.

Despite a deep, prolonged slump, British unemployment never reached the double-digit heights that afflicted America and the periphery of continental Europe. But, even as the economy began to heal, the unemployment rate failed to fall much. That changed last year. The unemployment rate sank from 7.8% in May to 7.4% in September. Official figures released on January 22nd show another steep fall in the three months to October, to 7.1%.

Post: #6

The UK and Japan have the most messed up books as far as Government coffers go. The UK has been able to stay chugging due to its ability to expand debt on the backs of a ever increasing population due to the influx of immigrants into the nation. The UK is a sardine can, one of the most dense and populated nations, and a nations whose budget has been ran thin from entitlements it gives to all 'Brit-Ish' folks, even if the dude is from Somalia or South Laos. They need to tighten its borers to ensure the pie of services remains intact, they need access to the Euro to ensure a steady supply of debt from Frankfurt but can't deal with the crippling border issues that a foot in the Euro system warrants.

The only thing that keeps people shrugging their shoulders is that the UK has been in worse shape debt wise many times. During the is prime of Empire - and its dying days, and the end of the Wars debt was through the fuking roof. In those times though there was a lot of room to wiggle around, and a lot of old assets to de-leverage from also. In the past many colonies were run basically like corporations and the UK was able to flush its holdings out in exchange for cash which helped ease its burdens many times. Fast forward to today that capital has largely been spent and now the UK has really not much fuel to burn to get any type of legitimate growth going.

The UK going belly up isn't the same as the former banana republic of Argentina. Argentina has far few support services for its people as the UK. The UK has millions upon millions of people it props up to simply justify the Government doing existing. What savings and assets will the UK purge like Argentina did? And how can the UK whom has the largest set of Bankers within its borders be cool with not getting their money? Argie's had no issue in telling Bankers/Creditors to go fuck themselves as they were largely off-sure, Western, and many from the UK.

Look how much pressure Ireland took to NOT default on its debt, follow the route of Iceland and Argentina in telling Bankers/Creditors to go fuck themselves. I would imagine the UK would face the greatest pressure to not go the route of Iceland or Argentina.

(01-24-2014 12:14 AM)Hencredible Casanova Wrote:  I actually heard different.

Quote:IMPROBABLE as it seemed a year ago, the British economy is now the envy of the rich world. On January 21st the IMF predicted growth of 2.4% in 2014. Among large advanced economies only America is expected to do better. Firms are rushing to take on staff, sending the unemployment rate tumbling—and creating a conundrum for the Bank of England.

Despite a deep, prolonged slump, British unemployment never reached the double-digit heights that afflicted America and the periphery of continental Europe. But, even as the economy began to heal, the unemployment rate failed to fall much. That changed last year. The unemployment rate sank from 7.8% in May to 7.4% in September. Official figures released on January 22nd show another steep fall in the three months to October, to 7.1%.

UK'a GDP is highly tied to finance. If the finance houses move the meter then the UK's numbers look more rosy. Post 2008 the Banks got large infusions of cash which plumped up balance books for major Banks all across Europe. UKs economy is largely one dimensional and is largely made up of:

*Government debt switching from one pocket to another
*City of London crony finance
*Wealthy Indians, Chinese, and Arab oligarchs plumping crazy amounts of money into London real estate
*Services that revolve around crony finance, rich foreign people, and Government

All above total more than 50% of the UKs economy. They still manufacture, pull out some gas from the North Sea, mine, and such; but those, especially manufacturing are all shells of their former selves.

Post: #7

Kosko speaks the truth. The UK is controlled by financial heart of the country; the City of London. Without the square mile the whole house of cards comes crashing down. The Empire of the City by E.C. Knuth is an interesting read and goes into great detail on this subject.

It's interesting that you mention Japan and UK as being in very similar positions, economically speaking. Another well-publicised trend shared by the two countries is that a growing number of young men in both are actively withdrawing from dating (and even interacting with members of the opposite sex):

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oc...having-sex

Japan's economy has been stagnant for over 10 years, with a rapidly aging and shrinking population. In times of economic hardship (rational) men often decide that materialistic women are best avoided. Personally, I believe that the UK is following a very similar path to Japan and the (non-immigrant) population of the UK will rapidly shrink over the coming decade.

Post: #8

Regardless of what makes up Britian's economy or any of the points Kosko made, how does that relate to this notion of "The End of Britain?" What does one actually mean by that?

Just to be clear, British newspapers have long had a history of doom and gloom propaganda regarding immigration trends, etc.

The Economist, having been in print since the 1800s, knows this more than anyone and has traditionally been pro-immigration. This is another interesting article I read regarding that. Doesn't sound like an "end" is on its way at all. Most people from wherever that want to make something of themselves in Europe choose the UK.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21...re-welcome

Quote:BRITAIN’S newspapers are full of stories about your poverty, criminality and hunger for welfare. Its politicians rail against the European freedom-of-movement rules that will let you in and scramble to make it harder for you to claim benefits. Its population is more hostile than the Germans or the French: almost half of Britons believe their government should ban you from the country even if it is against the law to do so. You might just, as a result, have got the impression that you are not welcome.

But you are. On behalf of The Economist’s home country, we invite you to come and work here. Beginning on January 1st, you can go anywhere in the European Union. We hope lots of you choose Britain. Although our leaders seem to have forgotten, Britain pushed for your country to join the EU, knowing that you would one day turn up on our doorstep.

The going will be rough at first. But the history of many waves of immigration tells us that, before too long, you will be folded comfortably into British society.

It is not your fault that most of our countrymen don’t want you. Partly, the problem is the Poles. Ten years ago, when Britain was one of only three countries to open its doors to them, the government assured voters that just a few tens of thousands would come, and probably not for long. Instead more than half a million arrived. And, as well as being workers who cut cabbages and painted walls (displacing some British labourers by the simple expedient of turning up on time), they proved to be human beings who settled down and had children. We weren’t fully prepared for that.

But if our leaders were wrong a decade ago about the number of Poles and other east Europeans who would come to Britain, they are more wrong now about their effect on the country. Politicians claim they are a burden on public services already stretched thin by austerity. Nonsense: being young and able-bodied, they don’t use them much. And because they contribute more to the Treasury in taxes than they take out in benefits and services—about 35% more, according to a plausible estimate—they save our schools and hospitals from deeper cuts. They don’t depress wages much, and mostly among other immigrant workers. They make our economy bigger, lowering our debt-to-GDP ratio. If you are even remotely like them, you will be an economic boon.

Sadly, opinion polls do not lie. Few people want you here. Those of you who end up begging or stealing—and there will inevitably be some—will be featured on the front pages of our newspapers. But in an odd way, this could help you. So loathsome is the idea of Bulgarian and Romanian immigration to Britons that the reality can only seem pleasant by comparison. People will be nicely surprised when the great majority of you come to work rather than scrounge off the state.

Britain’s labour market is Europe’s most flexible. Its economy is at last growing strongly. Its people are not prejudiced in practice: the polls that show huge opposition to your arrival also suggest that most Britons would consider employing you to work on their houses. The country is used to immigrants. Particularly in London, you will discover all kinds of exotic folk, many of whom were similarly despised when they first arrived. If you are really worried about prejudice, just pretend to be Italian. Nobody will know.