Post: #1

Eric X. Li gives a talk where he offers a challenging perspective on the merits of China's anti-democratic politic system.

A lot of interesting insights, and he's clearly a guy who can think for himself and isn't just a robot.

Although it's also clear the legitimacy of China's government must hinge on it being able to facilitate continued economic progress. China's industrial revolution has come at the expense of selling her products for less than what they're worth, and offering credit to credit-unworthy America. Not to mention major discrepancies in sex ratios and an elderly problem that will rival the West's. Nor do I see a reason why not China's elite should not regress on massive scale to the same kind of rent-seeking behavior we see in the West.

All are unsustainable in the long-term. It's an open question if China can address these issue effectively.

Post: #2

Interesting talk. My personal thoughts are that for China, the future is there for the taking, but for the West, it's there for the losing. China's rise must be contrasted with the disintegration of the West and its ideals. Ultimately, though, I suspect that China will eventually go the same way. The lure of universal suffrage is too great, and all societies eventually self-destruct in that respect.

Taiwan, along with other Asian nations, experienced the same sort of rags to riches story under authoritarian rule, etc. Once people got a little more prosperous though, they (and outsiders) started agitating for democracy. They got it a little over a generation ago. The past decade has been one of stagnation for the average Taiwanese person. Taiwan has descended into the same mess of political grandstanding and "gimmedats" that the West has. The current rising generation are only somewhat less entitled and left leaning than Generation Y in the West. Within another generation, Taiwan could very likely be stupid enough to elect an Obama style "Hope and Change" government and enact a massive expansion of the welfare state and then it's party over. China is probably only a generation or two behind politically because it's probably only a generation or two behind economically (though political and economic change seem to be getting compressed in the modern era). We live in interesting times. Personally, I don't (want to) have all of my eggs in either the basket of the East or the basket of the West. I'd also like to have some outside of both. Hence, perpetual traveller.

Post: #3

But Taiwan was allied with the US, and therefore probably popular sentiment was more open-minded towards Western liberalism.

No doubt mainland Chinese are super smart people, with strong social cohesion - but does that mean liberalism (in the classic sense of the word) and democracy? Nation-states were the pre-requisites for modern democracy. Is there a reason why this shouldn't apply to China - with its anti-American stance? As internal pressures in China mount, those energies could be channeled towards China's enemies. I don't know that many Chinese personally, those that I do know are nice people, but many of them are quite racist and nationalistic. That could be a difficult force to deal with, especially if Russia is there to egg them on.