Post: #26

(09-13-2013 02:05 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  ^ what are you talking about.

If you don't actually put your money to work (long or short) and can't even tell me what the investment thesis is behind the stock why should I listen to you.

Give me a break.

Scorpian is saying that you don't know, and no one else does for that matter either.

Investing today is more about guessing which stocks the HFT big banks will stash their money in. It's all a pump and dump game. Just look at the fate of Apple.

Post: #27

^

Says the guy who wrote just above that you would be short the stock if you were an investor

Come on now.

I literally wrote nothing positive or negative on twitter and all the hate is coming from guys who would be short it or stay away.

Okay cool that makes sense I must be retarded

Post: #28

My guess to short twitter isn't because of some complex stock analysis, but rather of just simple observation. Twitter is a fad. Facebook is a fad. These things aren't going to be here in 10 years and at most will be gambled on the same way penny stocks are.



The way everyone is hyping twitter right now is the same way they were hyping facebook. If I were a investor (read: a gambling man) I'd put money on the stock dipping right out of the starting gate, the same way the initial buyers of facebook were fleeced.

Post: #29

(09-13-2013 02:11 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  Says the guy who wrote just above that you would be short the stock if you were an investor

What's so funny about shorting Twitter?

Shorting Facebook would have paid off nicely.

You don't think Twitter's IPO will, like Facebook, be overpriced?

If not, why not?

Post: #30

I am not making a call on twitter. I am saying its funny because he basically said anyone making a call on the stock is a gambling buffoon but earlier in the thread said he would be short the security. I can't take you seriously if you don't have the prospectus in front of you, none of you do.

I am also only stating people who talk about p/e's and earnings don't know jack shit about high tech IPOs

All of the above is true.

You already knew my opinion on Facebook before it went public. This is not the same security.

If you think it's a fad that's cool, talking about p/e's is unrelated. Talking about Facebook is just a trading comp and is also pretty unrelated as well relative to the peer group.

It's funny my posts got so much heat when literally no call was made on the stock. My original post is simply hinting at what will be in the s-1. User growth, subs, penetration rates etc.

It's baffling that people are already making calls on it without an S-1. Hell 99% of people reading this don't even know what one is before they put it into google. I certainly won't be dragged into a pissing match with no information, so be certain people long or short the stock already don't have any background in investing.

Post: #31

^ No one was giving you heat, bro.

Guys were just having a discussion.

No one is out to get you or form a hate mob.

Post: #32

No one called anyone a buffoon. I said we're just guessing, and none of us have any idea of what will actually happen.

Post: #33

If you guys actually want to discuss twitter as a security just wait for the s-1 read the thing cover to cover. Build out your model and click buy/short.

Investing in stocks is not "gambling". But I am going to leave it at that, just like the other threads on finance I really obviously haven't learned my lesson in avoiding them as they are quickly filled with tripe.

(Note I dont mean give me heat as a person, reading through the comments there are zero posts on actually how to look at the stock and all the posts are basically "high tech is not an investable space"- that pitch sure wont work in the Valley where millionaires are born daily. If anything it's one of the most important and coveted spaces in the USA today).

Post: #34

(09-13-2013 03:58 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  If you guys actually want to discuss twitter as a security just wait for the s-1 read the thing cover to cover. Build out your model and click buy/short.

If guys just need to read the S-1, why is there insider trading? And "expert networks"?

If investing were as simple as reading S-1s, hedge funds wouldn't hire private investigators to follow CEOs to find out where they are vacationing and who they are meeting. Congressional staffers wouldn't feed information about pending legislation to hedge funds.

Everyone would just read the S-1s and we'd have a nice little efficient market hypothesis.

Except the market isn't efficient and there are major information asymmetries.

One of my clients was involved in one of the biggest insider trading scandals in decades. There were even Senate hearings about it. (though obviously I can't give more details.)

So I know all of this stuff very well.

For someone without an edge (i.e., insider information, expert networks, etc.), investing is a gamble.

That's why I always tell guys to stay out of individual stocks and just dollar cost average into the market in low-cost funds.

Post: #35

The sheep read S-1s and stock analysis on Bloomberg and Barron's.

This is how it's really done:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/11/26/k...ious/?_r=0

Post: #36

Yeah you guys will always lose to the elite I've already mentioned and agree with that many times.

My point on s-1's is that people post on here with no finance knowledge at all.

I will always try to avoid commenting on individual stocks on a public forum, people are better off in general, buying etfs, not having a financial advisor and dollar cost averaging.

Post: #37

^^^ this.

Nobody has ever consistently beat the market in the long run.
Invest in an etf that mirrors the US stock market (or whatever western or emerging market you believe in) and hold it.

Post: #38

(09-13-2013 09:09 AM)BLarsen Wrote:  Beware. When Twitter goes public you'll start hearing female "activists" complain that Twitter needs to do something about the misogynistic tweets and rape threats. Facebook 2.0.

Because they're publicly traded, they'll cave.

You heard it here first...

I tought the same when i read it in the news.

Post: #39

(09-13-2013 09:09 AM)BLarsen Wrote:  Beware. When Twitter goes public you'll start hearing female "activists" complain that Twitter needs to do something about the misogynistic tweets and rape threats. Facebook 2.0.

Because they're publicly traded, they'll cave.

You heard it here first...

I am pretty sure that is already happening. There was news a few months ago that Twitter UK's President or some other high-level exec apologized to feminists and women for the rampant misogyny that they face on Twitter. That led to new protocols for the company all over the world.

Whether or not these companies go public they will cave regardless to feminists and manginas regarding misogynistic tweets and rape threats.

I think Teedub said that his account was deleted once because he replied to some feminist or posted a "sexist" tweet or something. This has nothing to do with going public especially for huge companies like twitter; companies rarely have a backbone these days.

Post: #40

The valuation expert, Professor Damodaran, has just published an extensive valuation based on Twitter's S-1 :

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com.au/2...ation.html

Quote:Having learned from the Facebook fiasco, I expect the bankers and the company to make the Twitter IPO a smoother offering. That process will of course start with the road show, where they will package the company like a shiny new present, and unwrap their “offering” price. I am sure that Goldman’s bankers, working on this deal, are a capable lot and will price the stock well, with just enough bounce to make those who receive a share of the initial offering feel special. As I watch the frenzy, I have to remind myself of two realities. The first is that there will be lots of distractions (like this one) during the IPO, most designed to take my eye of the ball. The second is that the bankers have their own agenda, and I cannot make the mistake of assuming that it matches mine. Watching out for my interests, here is how I see Twitter: at a $6 billion market cap ($10/share), I think it is a very good deal, at $10 billion ($17.5/share), I am indifferent to it, and at $20 billion ($35/share), it is a moon shot.

Post: #41

Anyone making a move on this?

Post: #42

IPOs are always dangerous, no one knows which way the stock will go. Insiders make all the money, not the little people.

I'm not touching twitter but if I was I'd probably wait for the initial chaos to settle down, the stock will probably go up a little, then go down, and I'd buy into the dip the next day, but again, I'm not touching this.

Post: #43

LOL indicators at $45.

This is a great day in my life right here.

They can't even get it to trade this is by far the funniest shit I have ever seen in my entire career.

The comps to Facebook? The comps to "google"? Just LOL I am at my desk right now doing this.



In laymans terms: there are block buy orders of 7M+ shares at $40+ and NO ONE IS SELLING. So under valued at $26 they can't even get a single person to release right now.



Never seen a range move up 3 times that fast.

Needless to say the stock is not going to be down today.

Post: #44

Went to just about $50.

As one British journalist observed:

"Dancing bears are invading the New York Stock Exchange and strolling jugglers on stilts whirl us up into this particular capitalist circus."

Post: #45

Looks like, despite the intrinsically evil all-white-male board, the IPO did just fine...
What will the IRTs do now?

Post: #46

Days like this make you realize no matter how hard people try to sell you on being lazy and chilling they are alll full of it. Nothing beats years of grind with zero results followed by a sudden success. Absolutely nothing.

Time to get drunk as fuck! Expect that reyjakavik sheet from me next year players!

Post: #47

A lot of people made a lot of money today, unfortunately I wasn't one of them

Post: #48

I heard something interesting from a journalist you've definitely heard of before. I'll paraphrase what this person said to me about Twitter about six months ago, before an IPO deep into the works.

Twitter is the greatest invention since the telephone. You have no idea how useful Twitter is to large corporations and the media. The money making ability for corporations is just being scratched on Twitter. He then revealed to me some it's usefulness to the media. He said that it's a form to communicate off-the-record or sensitive information because of its speed, safety and ease of use. Many journalists and media outlets have a bevy of innocuous private accounts to DM news or information across twitter. He thinks the value in the company is built into the value of the companies that unlock the usefulness of twitter. More than people's televisions nowadays, people are glued into smartphones. Twitter has infiltrated Twitter user's lives to the point where they are always "on" when connected to a smart phone. Companies want to be part of that "on" experience that Twitter offers with the move from TV to smart device. Just watch, Twitter is the way to move ideas AND products.

I wasn't sure what to make of this person's comment, but IMO they are spot on.

Post: #49

watched it on tv. no pop in the secondary/retail market. aside from quick spike to 50, stayed flat or tight range bound all day. twiter execs and i-bankers got too greedy and left no meat on the bones for the retail investors.

would have been nice if twitter execs left it at low 20s, then pop to low 30s by underwriters and ipe insiders, then pop to 45-50 in retail. everyone gets some.

Post: #50

Well, i have to give westcoast props for this one. Twitter has outperformed like a motherfucker. steve9 gave recommendations about how to play twitter IPO-- in a way that would have been beneficial to twitters trader/investors. Twitter stocks is up by +44% to +176% from the IPO debut price(Depending on where/when you start buying i.e either $26 or $50). Good job, both of you.



Personally, i never went into twitter because IPOs are not my personal trading/investment preference as stated here..... Despite that, i cannot help but be impressed by twitter's stocks performance, even though i did well for the year.

It is only fair to give credit where credits is due, especially, after reading the back and forth on this thread with regards to twitter.... At the end of the day, it is all about if your stock makes money or not. That is the bottomline.

Twitter stock had a nice gift of +30% run up just before christmas. what a gift for the holidays!

Anyways, the charts below tells the tale: