(08-29-2013 01:47 AM)scorpion Wrote: You're coming across as the caricature of a big business Republican. You sound like Larry Kudlow, for fuck's sake. Their entitlement? To what, exactly? A basic standard of living in the year 2013 in the wealthiest and most powerful country to ever exist? Is that too much to ask?
We have to consider what made us the wealthiest and most powerful country to ever exist. Our greatest period of growth measured in GDP came after the Civil War, before minimum wage laws existed. Before the central bank was created and given control of interest rates. Before government took up 20%, and now over 40% of GDP.
As for raising the minimum wage and interfering there, what's there to say? Is making someone more expensive to hire going to make him more or more likely to be unemployed? Not to mention the layoffs and cutting down of hours that companies will be forced into. This is without even talking about passing the costs down to the consumer, which is going to reduce demand for fast food, which will in turn hurt the industry and the workers raising the minimum.
That's what will happen. And how do we know this? Because this has
already happened. It wouldn't be the first time minimum wage was raised.
Yes, it is humane, it is the ethical thing to do on the surface. Making unemployment compulsory by raising it is going to shift the consequences. It's the invisible victim, the coworker who got laid off or his hours cut, or was never employed in the first place, that is always overlooked.
Also, hundreds of thousands of the job gains in 2013 have been in the fast food sector. Think on that for a moment.
(08-29-2013 01:41 AM)Sonsowey Wrote: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinio...-debt.html
Those concerns are complete nonsense.
The United States doesn't face a debt crisis. Interest rates are perpetually low. We are not going to default. Our deficit is falling rapidly.
Our military spending is out of control, our healthcare spending is way too high because of our stupid system that costs more than Europe's. But overall our level of government spending is more than manageable, as evidenced by the fact that interest rates on our bonds are terribly low.
I had a suspicion from your first several posts in this thread that you were a liberal/progerssive with absolutely zero credibility. Who were directly responsible for putting us on the path of deficits from the 1960s into eternity, straight onto this highway straight to hell.
This is an article Krugman wrote in 2009:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11...ntes/?_r=0 pointing out that the bond vigilantes were nowhere to be seen.
None of the commentators voicing concerns about the deficits now. It's about when interest rates rise,
in the future. When the availability of credit renormalizes. When the companies and businesses that are running on false demand finally have no recourse but to liquidate, like the telecommunications companies in the dotcom bubble and homebuilding companies in the housing bubble - but have now spread beyond that into multiple sectors of the economy, and can't even be listed in totality.
I'll note that the article you linked was written in 2012, when QE3 was chugging merrily along, and everyone at the Fed was uniformly dovish on monetary policy.
All of this is predicated on a continuation of quantitative easing. If you understand its technical definition, you'll understand its nature relating to check-kiting and frontrunning, and how it is functionally legalized bribery of those who would otherwise be bond vigilantes.
Bernanke's tapering announcement exposed it by triggering a major bond selloff. The 10 year is fluctuating at around 2.9%, which is a
two year high. Every rise of a full hundred basis points costs us $170 billion in taxes for debt service. Merely the
mention of tapering caused that.
You blame the Pentagon budget? Well, we are now in a situation where we are (and already have) actually using our military to enforce dollar hegemony and its exchange value. Without all that spending and all these thousands of deaths, all those people depending on welfare would be starving.
Goldman Sachs, one of the primary dealers who act as the Fed's counterparties in its open market operations, came out with a client distribution in 2010 openly recommending the strategy of frontrunning by purchasing treasury securities.
Earlier this summer, I had the opportunity to meet someone working at Morgan Stanley's securities division (another primary dealer). He showed me, in confidence, internal memos to new hires explaining the same thing as GS did, and, in his words "If QE stops, government bonds go from AAA+++ to FFF---." The day that happens, no one shows up at the Treasury to buy those bonds... This is even being generous and giving the most leeway to optimism and saying the Federal Reserve does this on its own terms, not when investors independently decide they're going to get out of the way of the chainsaw.
This is without even going into its ramifications on the rest of the world. The same day as Bernanke's announcement, the Nikkei lost ~10%.
All right-wing fearmongering nonsense, right?
WELL...let's take a look at one other article written in
2003 by someone else:
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/11/opinio...wreck.html
Peter Schiff Wrote:With war looming, it's time to be prepared. So last week I switched to a fixed-rate mortgage. It means higher monthly payments, but I'm terrified about what will happen to interest rates once financial markets wake up to the implications of skyrocketing budget deficits.
Quote:From a fiscal point of view the impending war is a lose-lose proposition. If it goes badly, the resulting mess will be a disaster for the budget. If it goes well, administration officials have made it clear that they will use any bump in the polls to ram through more big tax cuts, which will also be a disaster for the budget. Either way, the tide of red ink will keep on rising.
Last week the Congressional Budget Office marked down its estimates yet again. Just two years ago, you may remember, the C.B.O. was projecting a 10-year surplus of $5.6 trillion. Now it projects a 10-year deficit of $1.8 trillion.
And that's way too optimistic. The Congressional Budget Office operates under ground rules that force it to wear rose-colored lenses. If you take into account -- as the C.B.O. cannot -- the effects of likely changes in the alternative minimum tax, include realistic estimates of future spending and allow for the cost of war and reconstruction, it's clear that the 10-year deficit will be at least $3 trillion.
Quote:So what? Two years ago the administration promised to run large surpluses. A year ago it said the deficit was only temporary. Now it says deficits don't matter. But we're looking at a fiscal crisis that will drive interest rates sky-high.
Admission that the Bush tax cuts were necessary:
Quote:Of course, Mr. Fisher isn't allowed to draw the obvious implication: that his boss's push for big permanent tax cuts is completely crazy. But the conclusion is inescapable. Without the Bush tax cuts, it would have been difficult to cope with the fiscal implications of an aging population. With those tax cuts, the task is simply impossible. The accident -- the fiscal train wreck -- is already under way.
Quote:How will the train wreck play itself out? Maybe a future administration will use butterfly ballots to disenfranchise retirees, making it possible to slash Social Security and Medicare. Or maybe a repentant Rush Limbaugh will lead the drive to raise taxes on the rich. But my prediction is that politicians will eventually be tempted to resolve the crisis the way irresponsible governments usually do: by printing money, both to pay current bills and to inflate away debt.
And as that temptation becomes obvious, interest rates will soar. It won't happen right away. With the economy stalling and the stock market plunging, short-term rates are probably headed down, not up, in the next few months, and mortgage rates may not have hit bottom yet. But unless we slide into Japanese-style deflation, there are much higher interest rates in our future.
Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Co. were already pushing forth the agenda to invade Afghanistan and Iraq, so we already had the Military Keynesian stimulative effects. Whoever this author was, not even that could cure his cynicism.
The Baby Boomers weren't retiring en masse then, Americans still had savings then, we hadn't hit the zero lower bound so the Fed still had room to maneuver, GDP growth was greater (even though the economy was still a bubble.) and now the bond market is bleeding and the asset purchase program has been a miserable failure, with half of the FOMC wanting it to end
outright. Ordinary working class Americans are being ground beneath the government's heel under 40% effective tax rates.
This guy couldn't possibly be more optimistic in 2013 than he was in 2003, could he?
...
Wait a minute. I got the author wrong. That's not Peter Schiff. That's not Ron Paul. That's not Bob Murphy. That's not Richard Ebeling. That's not Zerohedge. That author's name is none other than...
Quote:A Fiscal Train Wreck
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Everyone knows. Bernanke, the chairman himself, knows. Krugman knows. He just won't tell his fawning little followers at the New York Times because it's not his job to do so while the Democratic Party is in power. He's there to spin some random shit explanation so that those uninformed in economics who correlate heavily with the left can reassure themselves that they, in voting for a massive government and cheering for irreversibly sprawling budget deficits for about half a century now, are not responsible for this.
His job is to create a narrative whereby the nonexistent free market is to take the fall, and after shit hits the fan, legitimize an even more massive government, higher taxes on everyone, a more centrally planned economy in which the number of private sector workers is approximately 0.
One more pithy quote to make the point?
Mystery person, July 17, 2013 Wrote:If we were to tighten, the economy would tank.
Three guesses as to who delivered this doomsday testimony?
...
Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Benjamin Bernanke.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents...30717a.htm