Post: #101

"Brooklyn is in a fukin bubble. I've lived here my entire life, and hipsters are paying millions of bucks for HORRIBLE piece of crap brownstones in boring and ugly neighborhoods. "
Actually its NOT a bubble because NYC is where the wealth is and being on an island its not like more homes and apt's can be built, BUT a large part of the world wants to and plans on moving there one day.As population increases prices will soar , but a suit nuke can drop prices faster than lead sinking to the ocean floor.

Post: #102

(05-18-2013 04:55 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  Go read the about us. We will donate lump sum at year end and load up the check (obviously not much money).

Ah, so you keep all the money all year....then donate at the end of the year? Sure you do, bunky. I have no evidence that you're lying. I simply don't believe you!

(05-18-2013 04:55 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  So now you dislike me because you believe you are smarter than me.

No, there are a lot people i'm smarter than that I like and a lot of people smarter than me who like me. You keep trying to change the construct, to "reframe" to a more favorable proposition. So let me bring it back to you: I don't dislike you because you aren't smart; you are reasonably smart. I dislike you because you are many times more arrogant than you are smart. Your ego is much bigger than your intellect. Why can't you accept that?

(05-18-2013 04:55 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  ...... you are coming off as a very angry guy who got fired from the street

You weaken your case, in this and future arguments, when you make up things you can't possibly know to be true. You have ZERO BASIS for concluding I have been fired from a job on Wall Street (I wasn't). I'm not one of those people who say to always avoid ad hominem attacks; sometimes one is necessary. But never use one that is so susceptible to someone pointing out you could never possibly know it to be true.

(05-18-2013 04:55 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  ... you are telling me you are smarter than me with no proof or any authenticity? Seriously if you have a better background and real info I will stfu and take your advice...

I have done so. Look, in case it hasn't dawned on you yet, here's what everyone ELSE on this board sees in this thread:

- One guy has given very long, detailed posts supporting his views, with a fairly thorough macro-economic analysis of how the money supply expands/contracts, how that impacts inflation and credit, and how it impacts asset prices in the short run and then in the long run. He's something of a blow-hard, his posts are too long, but he does know his sh!t. And the other guy said "Uh, I believe it because Warren Buffet said so...so there!" with NO original discussion or analysis (which implies that he is unable to conceptualize and articulately discuss these concepts).

Now, here's what YOU see:

{Whew! It's HARD when people call you out on a subject you don't really know much about...still, if I ACT all arrogant and try to change the subject enough, and refuse to actually get drawn into a discussion of my knowledge, MAYBE the teens and young 20s that follow me will be fooled! After all, with kids, a lot of it is just how cocky you act!}

You can't win, Cupcake. Eventually, I'm going to break you down by pointing out your lack of actual knowledge, or you're going to modulate your ego so that it bears a family resemblance to your abilities. It's your call.

Post: #103

^^ fine when I get in front if a computer I will formulate a long response on my opinion on real estate.

I really don't know how you are going to "out me" when I have already met and have been verified by forum members though...

Will start a separate thread so this doesn't get derailed.

Post: #104

(05-18-2013 06:12 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  ^^ fine when I get in front if a computer I will forulatw.

I don't know what that means, but OK. Please make sure to address the actual point you made earlier: That those of us who thing QE can end in an asset bubble "know nothing about what the government is doing". Don't just address a short-term time frame; Real estate isn't a day-trading asset.

After you do this, I will point to similar analysis made in 1998 (about stocks), 2005 (about real estate) and 2007 (about credit/mortgages). You'll be reduced to the age-old "This time is different!". Google that phrase with respect to housing, equities, etc the past ten years and see what you come up with!

See, I've just told you what you're going to do next, and how i'm going to embarrass you with it! I'm making your life AWFULLY easy for you, Cupcake!

Post: #105

P.s. I predict he'll wait until Wednesday, try to sneak one past me (probably a cut and paste he doesn't much understand) and hope I don't notice. I will notice.

Post: #106

I will post before 8:15pm est. on new thread.

I will be in front of a computer, notice all my posts are mobile, chill I am at the gym.

Post: #107

(05-18-2013 06:22 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  I will post before 9pm est. on new thread.

Don't tell us, Cupcake, show us.

Post: #108

Now's fine, BTW...

Post: #109

(05-18-2013 02:43 PM)Dexter Morgan Wrote:  Am I the only one here who wants an answer to this question? Surely most of you either currently own assets in the stock market or the real estate markets, or plan to at some point. And if you've not been in a coma since 2002, you know what happened to real estate in the U.S. (and Ireland, and Spain, and ....). Don't any of you want to know what special insight allows this conclusion?:

"Hahaha at all the guys talking about real estate bubbles again, that means they don't understand what the govt is doing."

(Shameless ask: I'd LUV for just one other poster to reply "yeah ...answer the question!")

I was actually very curious about WestCoast’s answer as well. Very disappointed with where he took things-- why did he go off on a tangent about his job and screen caps, blah blah blah? lol

In all that time it took to go back and forth, dude could of just posted a couple sentences on his reasoning...

Post: #110

I posted already. Will load up cap of rem when I get home.

Post: #111

(05-18-2013 06:50 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  I posted already. Will load up cap of rem when I get home.

Interesting take. Thanks for following up.

Post: #112

(05-18-2013 04:07 PM)TheCaptainPower Wrote:  My bills are as following:



Subway ($150ish)

Man, get an unlimited pass ($112). Check if you bank lets you pay for it before taxes ($84).

Post: #113

(05-18-2013 06:19 PM)Dexter Morgan Wrote:  P.s. I predict he'll wait until Wednesday, try to sneak one past me (probably a cut and paste he doesn't much understand) and hope I don't notice. I will notice.

So you read the whole thread didnt respond and signed off? Come on man now i really think you're just trolling. In addition you said you'd notice?



Next thing i know you're going to make LTM P/E multiples talking about history and have no working knowledge of a simple sharp ratio...

If you don't like my opinion that is fine, you now have my view on spreads, rates, what is currently happening. Feel free to post your rebuttal least you know for sure i am not trolling since you would have immediately outed me and I posted it before the 8:15 time frame... and on my phone none-the-less.

Post: #114

(05-18-2013 08:04 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  you said you'd notice?

I NOTICED, Cupcake, I NOTICED! Daddy is very happy with you, m'kay?

(05-18-2013 08:04 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  Next thing i know you're going to make LTM P/E multiples talking about history

Let's see, history...you mean, actual results of actual investments in similar times? Yeah, we wouldn't want to talk about THAT! Despite the fact that all Modern Portfolio Theory is based on performance over a statistically valid sample! Nah...it's MUCH more fun to just say "trust me", ain't it??

(05-18-2013 08:04 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  Feel free to post your rebuttal

Thank you. I did. I would've "felt free" if you didn't offer, too...

(05-18-2013 08:04 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  I am on my phone none-the-less.

Thank you for the offer, Cupcake. However, I'm not calling you. I'm sorry. You'll make other friends.

Post: #115

Lolz okay man i already said lets go heads up on a bet put your $$ where your mouth is we can just bet on a Mort REIT using REM as of today if you like over an NTM period.

Then you can call me cupcake all you like. I do not care.

Post: #116

Dexter if you want to debate that's cool but you're being a dick. An easy way to get banned here.

Post: #117

(05-18-2013 08:53 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Dexter if you want to debate that's cool but you're being a dick. An easy way to get banned here.

Yeah, I see a banning coming.

Post: #118

(05-18-2013 08:53 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Dexter if you want to debate that's cool but you're being a dick. An easy way to get banned here.

Yes, I am being something of a dick, you're right. But this isn't the usual "how to pick up girls thread" where the worst a guy will end up with by applying misguided logic is a case of blue balls. This guy is telling you what to do with your money! We have a lot of young guys around here, and I remember what money was like when I was in my early 20's - tight! I'm just trying to expose a poseur who doesn't know as much as he thinks he knows. Sorry if I went about it in a dickish manner; I can't really argue with that. I'll happily accept my banning. The forums, however, will be worse off for it.

Post: #119

Lol again i have not said what to do with your money, i gave my opinion on what i think the housing market will do. Again you disagree. But won't take the opposite side of the investment, your words are empty, at least i am willing to take an internet bet with a

Post: #120

(05-18-2013 09:22 PM)Dexter Morgan Wrote:  Yes, I am being something of a dick, you're right. But this isn't the usual "how to pick up girls thread" where the worst a guy will end up with by applying misguided logic is a case of blue balls. This guy is telling you what to do with your money! We have a lot of young guys around here, and I remember what money was like when I was in my early 20's - tight! I'm just trying to expose a poseur who doesn't know as much as he thinks he knows. Sorry if I went about it in a dickish manner; I can't really argue with that. I'll happily accept my banning. The forums, however, will be worse off for it.

Westcoast is just relaying what he thinks is good info. He would be the first person to tell anyone to look further into something before investing.

If someone is dumb enough to take advice on any forum as gospel, they deserve to lose their money and learn a lesson.

Look at El Mech, he got into bitcoins because he read about it on this forum. I heard he lost everything and now has to prostitute his ass to retirees in Tampa.

Post: #121

(05-18-2013 09:26 PM)worldwidetraveler Wrote:  If someone is dumb enough to take advice on any forum as gospel, they deserve to lose their money and learn a lesson.

Look at El Mech, he got into bitcoins because he read about it on this forum. I heard he lost everything and now has to prostitute his ass to retirees in Tampa.

Hmmm...perhaps you're right. And besides, its not my job to educate the masses and save people from being jobbed out of their money! Thank you for helping me regain some perspective.

Post: #122

At the end of the day, people are going to invest by their risk profile. Exchanging ideas, introduces people to new ideas. And I don't think anyone here is intentionally trying to get anyone hurt. This forum, aside from the bantering at times, seems very geared toward helping each other learn.

But I do have concerns with QE and investing in real estate (not REITs, or stock but actual real estate). It is not a liquid asset, there can be headaches in this asset class very different than other assets - primarily lack of liquidity and in most cases, tremendously dependent on financing. I am long real estate - actual assets, been at it for a while. But would not recommend it for someone who does not have a clear understanding of what he is getting into. If the market moves against you, you will be stuck in the asset for a while. Granted, real estate, to some degree, is local so if you know your local housing market, rental market and handy at fixing stuff, it may work for you. Many fortunes have been made, and lost, in real estate.

The great thing about real estate is that it is like a used car in the sense that it is a one on one negotiation (unless you are in certain hot markets where there are 30 offers like in LA). So you can really drive a deep bargain if you keep your frame and are unattached to this particular home. That is where I have created value in the past. Often times, to get a great value you need to buy a piece of crap and fix it up.

Case-Shiller is forecasting a 3.3% annual gains through 2017. http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/05/real_est...index.html

Granted these are broad projections, but when you factor in selling costs (7% to 10%), you really would wipe away all this projected gain if you were to sell in 2017. Just trying to point out it isn't quick money.

However, if you get it for a rental purpose you could clip off some decent cash flow. I have some places where I am getting 1,100 rents and keeping 400 a month and it is highly levered.

I know there was a real estate thread started, but I just wanted to point out that everyone is (I believe) just trying to help each other out but there can major issues with owning physical real estate.

Post: #123

First things first. If you make a decision that you can draw down your capital after retirement, you can reduce your peak net worth target to something much more attainable.

So once retired, you're living partly off existing income streams and partly off sale of your capital.

This is easier to do when you have more fine grained assets. With one $500k house, it would be harder to free up a portion of your capital than if you owned four $125k houses.

There are products like reverse mortgages that can be useful.

The wild card in this question is whether you want kids. And if you get married, how much of a hit would your plans take if you get divorce raped?

Post: #124

(05-18-2013 12:25 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  I am going to be straight with you, you are thinking like a middle class person.

401K is shit. Only get up to $10K in there then only contribute to company match.

Dividends are for people with cash already, you have to think more aggressively/intelligently.

Buying a home is foolish unless you are doing it for rental income (you won't live there), the ROI is poor.

So get your money out of cd's start looking for better investments. At minimum stick it into a 5-7% bond fund.

To retire faster you have to think much much bigger, think "how could I have retired five years ago"

I don't want to have to work by 32. Think big.

(05-18-2013 12:14 PM)TheCaptainPower Wrote:  Let's say you have a successful career and you accumulate $700,000 in your 401K.

A dividend ETF is going to get you 3 percent? That is $21,000 a year.

You can't even afford to drive a car with that money.

I like the idea of buying my vacation home 10-15 years early...

I am a middle class person. I'd rather think like one than be delusional.

Post: #125

(05-18-2013 09:22 PM)Dexter Morgan Wrote:  

(05-18-2013 08:53 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Dexter if you want to debate that's cool but you're being a dick. An easy way to get banned here.

Yes, I am being something of a dick, you're right. But this isn't the usual "how to pick up girls thread" where the worst a guy will end up with by applying misguided logic is a case of blue balls. This guy is telling you what to do with your money! We have a lot of young guys around here, and I remember what money was like when I was in my early 20's - tight! I'm just trying to expose a poseur who doesn't know as much as he thinks he knows. Sorry if I went about it in a dickish manner; I can't really argue with that. I'll happily accept my banning. The forums, however, will be worse off for it.

You haven't offered any arguments or counter-points. You're just throwing around accusations.

There's a saying in rhetoric, "Show, don't tell." You're doing a fine job of telling us how great you are. Why should we believe you?

Why don't you lay out your arguments in a nice orderly fashion and expose WestCoast as the fraud you claim he is?