Post: #1

I have a friend who is a highly respected "futurist" - which means he travels around the world looking for the best ideas and emerging trends which he distills and presents to major fortune 500 companies.

He leads a fascinating life, and as you can imagine alot of his focus is in Asia at the moment.

After a conversation we had recently about his work, he pointed me to an article he wrote which discussed what he considered to be the top professions of the future. Here they are...

Data Scientist

Tech Addiction Counseller

Enterprise Anthropologist

Virtual Girlfriend

Pattern Recognition Specialist

Net Star

Brand Storyteller

Freelance Work Agent

Cyber-Warfare Operative

Professional Video Gamer

He has some interesting ideas...do you guys agree with any of these? or what do you think should be added?

Post: #2

Rooshvforum troll recognition specialist

Post: #3

(04-12-2013 03:30 PM)Irishman Wrote:  Rooshvforum troll recognition specialist

That doesn't pay.

Post: #4

crypto currency analysts techs etc.

Post: #5

A lot of these tech jobs are dependent on the internet which is dependent on energy, which we will at some point run out of. Also, a lot of these jobs are non-jobs (brand storyteller? wtf?) that can only exist in the presence of a food and cash surplus - while the latter can always be printed, the former is likely to start running out within our lifetimes (the amount of jobs that an economy can support outside of agriculture has historically been proportional to agricultural output relative to population).

The internet runs on oil. Not in the sense that you have to take your computer to the gas station to tank it up, but in the sense that many of the components of the internet (including your computer) are derived from oil and infrastructure support for the internet is dependent on technicians who can move about using oil-fueled vehicles. Furthermore, the fact that you even have time to sit on the Roosh forum implies that you don't have to break your back growing food or working for food - which is only possible because cheap food can be grown in the presence of cheap oil (farming machines and transportation of food all cost oil).

Therefore it is difficult for me to believe tech jobs are the future. As oil runs out, and food becomes more scarce, society is going to take a few steps back. Everyone will have to farm, at least part-time, and the absence of cheap energy is going to transform societies, especially those that are car-dependent, in ways that are going to be difficult to predict.

Human beings are ingenious enough so I doubt we will ever totally run out of energy sources or food sources, the issue is that they will no longer be cheap in terms of time, money, effort. Brand storytellers will be fired in order to keep the staff cafeteria chef (decent food may be a important moral point for staff in a world without cheap food).

My personal top list for jobs in a future where, at some point, we will run out of cheap energy/cheap food:
- Medical doctor: people will always get sick
- Ruler/politician: can be life-threatening and dangerous as a profession in volatile times, but the guys on top have usually been the richest in society
- Farmers: If these guys own large swathes of land, they traditionally push society into a feudalistic system where peasants earn meagre rations and the farmer keeps all the profit. If farmers own small plots of land (like for most of Chinese history) then these guys typically form the bulk of middle-class, educated society, which tend to benefit society as a whole.
- Priests: When times are tough, people will pay ca$h for hope.
- Travelling merchant: In a post-oil world, where things will be expensive and difficult to ship from one part of the world to another, someone with experience and logistics and know-how in moving goods from point A to point B will find rewards
- Peasants: the poor will always be among us, pathetically struggling, working for a pittance

Jobs I expect to die out in the future:
- Travelling writer working on the internet (eg Roosh): in the future you will really need your own little parcel of land to grow crops to get enough nutrition. You can't tend to it if you're always away. Also, the cost of electricity will be so prohibitive that people will only be able to afford the internet in short little weekly bursts. Only the very rich will be able to surf the net for longer than an hour.
- A lot of 'non-jobs' and consultancy services: Historically, the number of crafstmen and merchant have plunged in the presence of chronic food shortages, forcing society back into the Kings-Priests-Farmer tripod; in extreme situations even religion will collapse and society will fall into the Kings-Farmer system. The amount of people who do not have to work in food production is proportional to the amount of excess food. As food supplies drop, useless 'non-jobs' like brand storytelling will be the first to disappear as people are forced to become peasant labourers to work for food (or else learn a real and useful skill that the farmers can rent from you).

Anyway, it's just wild speculation on my part, feel free to critique.

Post: #6

Thomas is correct of course, but the time scale is probably a little longer than what is usually considered to turn a profit. There is a lot of coal around to be liquefied..

On that note, petro engineering/science should be an increasingly lucrative career as pumping oil becomes more technologically demanding.

Post: #7

I think your being a bit extreme, while energy could become more expensive; people always develop new forms of energy and if energy does become more expensive you might as well go into the energy industry! I think getting a career in the energy industry is a guaranteed job whether your an engineer or technician or anything related. Internet jobs come and go but people will always need energy, from electricity to gasoline, from utility companies to oil theres always work to be had.

Post: #8

(04-13-2013 12:37 AM)Thomas the Rhymer Wrote:  The Future

While what you are pointing out maybe true I don't think it will happen lifetime. We still have a shitload of energy sources and we're politically stable. But I really think we will revert into a middle ages-esque system after all our -cheap- energy sources get depleted.

But in a way, really deep inside me I wish this happened now so I can go out in the world like our ancestors did, spectating war, being a lider, living from nature,etc. (I really want to expand this, I could even do a book on this). Although maybe I just have watched too many movies.

Post: #9

(04-13-2013 12:37 AM)Thomas the Rhymer Wrote:  A lot of these tech jobs are dependent on the internet which is dependent on energy, which we will at some point run out of.

I don't think we will run out of energy, but we will eventually run out of cheap energy.

We really are living in amazing times when you think of it. Cheap energy is readily available to us. In there future, energy will get more expensive for two reasons: 1) It will become more scarce since we will have "picked all the low hanging fruit" and 2) there will be increasing regulations against using "dirty" or "dangerous" energy resources like coal or nuclear because of global warming concerns or the danger of reactor meltdown.

Hopefully, humans invent a new way to generate cheap energy in the future or our future will look a lot more like Mad Max and a lot less like Star Trek.

Post: #10

Farmers.

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/farm...24067.html

Post: #11

Well generally, you have to eat food, drink water, shit, live indoors, go from one place to another, obtain medical care, and have energy. So I would put important future jobs as farmer, plumber, construction worker, car mechanic and car distributors, doctors and nurses, and petroleum and electrical companies.

Post: #12

I personally don't think energy will be THAT expensive in the future. I follow the renewable energy sector somewhat closely and damn, they're doing a really good job getting prices down. I would put my money where my mouth is, especially with solar...except the solar industry is similar to the automobile industry: tons of players, only a few will eventually survive. I can't tell which ones the winners will be.

Solar panels are getting cheaper (special thanks to the US DoE for investing heavily in renewable energies). Battery technology is getting more innovative. Infrastructure is becoming more energy-efficient.

Cool example of what might happen: in South Korea they're testing charging electric cars using magnetic resonance coupling through inductors in the road. In plain words: the roads are charging the electric cars. It eliminates the need for charging cars overnight and range issues.

Interesting figure: http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/medi...-law-1.jpg
Btw it's down to ~ $0.7/watt now.

Post: #13

(04-13-2013 03:48 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  I personally don't think energy will be THAT expensive in the future. I follow the renewable energy sector somewhat closely and damn, they're doing a really good job getting prices down. I would put my money where my mouth is, especially with solar...except the solar industry is similar to the automobile industry: tons of players, only a few will eventually survive. I can't tell which ones the winners will be.

The dirty open secret of the renewable energy industry is that it requires cheap oil to build solar panels, windfarms, etc in the first place. It takes oil to not use oil!

Post: #14

While we are on the topic, here are 2 recent cool documentaries I watched on the topic:

One guy's wild rambles trying to warn of potential oil collapse:




How Cuba survived it's own personal oil collapse (probably a model for how societies will readjust in a energy-scarce era):

Post: #15

Thomas,

You've posted some really on-the-ball stuff before re:careers so your thoughts on energy/food stood out here. Do you really think we'll see this kind of change in first-world economies in our lifetimes? Big food shortages, regressions to feudal systems, etc? It seems unbelievable and you paint a pretty dark picture, but I can certainly see the logic behind it.

Post: #16

(04-13-2013 04:16 AM)Thomas the Rhymer Wrote:  

(04-13-2013 03:48 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote:  I personally don't think energy will be THAT expensive in the future. I follow the renewable energy sector somewhat closely and damn, they're doing a really good job getting prices down. I would put my money where my mouth is, especially with solar...except the solar industry is similar to the automobile industry: tons of players, only a few will eventually survive. I can't tell which ones the winners will be.

The dirty open secret of the renewable energy industry is that it requires cheap oil to build solar panels, windfarms, etc in the first place. It takes oil to not use oil!

Obviously. Making almost anything nowadays requires some oil. I don't think anyone denies that (I hope). The key point though is that if renewable energies can become cost competitive, they should be able to provide the energy traditionally provided by oil. Simply put, if renewable sources can provide more energy than they need, we should be fine.

In the 19th century, whale blubber was the preferred form of energy and people were worried we might run out. Fossil fuels replaced them. Now that we're slowly running out of fossil fuels, I have no doubt renewables will take over.

Post: #17

(04-13-2013 05:51 AM)RichieP Wrote:  Thomas,

You've posted some really on-the-ball stuff before re:careers so your thoughts on energy/food stood out here. Do you really think we'll see this kind of change in first-world economies in our lifetimes? Big food shortages, regressions to feudal systems, etc? It seems unbelievable and you paint a pretty dark picture, but I can certainly see the logic behind it.

As I mentioned at the end of my post, it's just wild speculation.

These things have happened before though.

Climate change, quantitative easing, confiscation of middle class wealth by the elites, decay of agricultural supply, energy crises... All these have happened before. Human history has a habit of repeating itself.

For a really good overview of how societies ebb and flow according the challenges they face, I recommend this book: http://www.amazon.com/World-History-New-...0712665722
I'm actually busy reading it for the third time at the moment. It is a big-ass book (but surprisingly short considering it covers all human history from the evolution of man to 1999) and it starts off slowly, but very much worth the read.

Post: #18

Medical field is not going anywhere, people are going to be living to 150 soon. Cant go wrong with medicine, only problem is Obamacare regulation and school loans...

Post: #19

jobs that require education and training and cannot be outsourced

Post: #20

Personally I don't think peak oil is anywhere close. Hardly a day seems to go by without some country is announcing how they are "the next Saudi Arabia" because of recent shale oil discoveries. Shit, Israel, Poland and South Africa just recent ones I can think of off the top of my head. As far as I can tell pretty much every country in the world has significant shale oil potential (maybe with the exception of Vatican City and Monaco). Of course to fully exploit these resources will require new technology, and a suitable political and legal framework that enables BigOil to decide to plough in the money to get the stuff out. But if the demand is there these will fall in line. It seems to me that the "peak oil" hysteria is manufactured so as to justify high prices for current production. Just like "climate change" is ultimately designed as a money grab by governments and banks (they will trade the "carbon credits"). It's so obvious it's not even interesting. I'm a pretty avid nature lover, but honestly, the "climate change" movement does absolutely nothing for the environment.

If we really want the energy I contend that it is there. We only need a little bit better extraction technology and a commitment by governments not to scupper projects for phony environmental reasons. Real environmental concerns are important, but these can be addressed. The way they are discussed nowadays they are just brought up to stop a development whatever the actual impact. i.e They are used as a convenience by people who are not actually concerned about the environment.

***

But if the internet really does come under threat because of expensive energy, as a result of an artificial limiting of new production, then I think what will happen is that servers will start performing more of the grunt work, and PC's and tablets will become more like "Dumb Clients". Reason? No doubt servers can do this more energy efficiently than PC's. So a programmer who can shift the focus of processing from PC to server would be in demand.

Post: #21

(04-13-2013 10:48 AM)bacon Wrote:  jobs that require education and training and cannot be outsourced

Tell that to Amir the Indian tech support guy.

Post: #22

Genetic Scientists/Biotechnology engineers.

They already earn big money.

Post: #23

I read somewhere that cyber security jobs are one of the most in demand and highest paid jobs out there. My company highers people fresh out of college with computer engineering degrees at around 85k. I wish I majored in that.

Post: #24

What does your boy know about moores law?