(12-31-2016 06:54 PM)SunW Wrote:  

(12-28-2016 06:13 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  We could also go shooting past $1,180, but I am asserting that currently I expect more potential of a price battle in the $1,060 to $1,180 range rather than before $1,000.

My bet is $975-$1025 will be a struggle. I am .01% confident with this bet.

Regarding the post that I made and you quoted, I have considerable confidence, and maybe that would suggest that I am more than 50% confident - however, there is something a bit immaterial about my views because, I don't really change my strategies too much based on my consideration of probabilities anywhere in the 30% to 70% territory, in my thinking (except maybe a tiny bit on the margins - like I may sell only .1BTC rather than selling .2BTC at a certain price point because I am a bit bullish), but overall, on a regular basis, I am only selling less than 2% of my holdings during any $100 to $200 price increase).

Regarding your stated .01% confidence level, I think that you are exaggerating...

Here is a sort of mainstream rendition of the current state of bitcoin (reviewing its 2016 performance - coming to a close within hours)


http://fortune.com/2016/12/28/bitcoin-20...=mattkibbe



Also, a nice little synopsis published yesterday regarding some reasons why this time, to $1,000, is different from the previous (late 2013) rise to $1,000.

http://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-soaring-1000-different/



And another article by Fortune.com suggesting that the Euro has a pretty decent chance of "failure" in 2017. Wow. Should we be surprised? Will that help bitcoin, if it were to occur? Does the actual expectation of Euro failure help bitcoin?


http://fortune.com/2016/12/30/euro-outlook-2017/

Here's are a lot of interesting bitcoin historical events on a timeline.

Of course, this list is not comprehensive, but it lists several important historical occurrences.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=...sg17349130

Satoshi may be following advice from this guy, who just lost $240k trying to short this rally...


https://twitter.com/whalepool/status/815603915999813632

Below is a link to a nice 30-minute interview from a couple of days ago.

It seems to really attempt to shed light on distinguishing aspects of bitcoin as compared with other assertions about blockchains being "Bitcoin 2.0"... and in essence, asserting that the vast majority of the other attempts at selling themselves as Bitcoin 2.0 are scams, even though a person could get lucky (approximately 2% of the time) and enter into a pump into some other blockchain" at the right moment.. but then, in most of those cases in which you get lucky, you better hope that you can get out of the coin before you get scammed too badly (and some of them even have difficult exit strategies).



https://soundcloud.com/goldnewsletter/to...-snake-oil

What price will bring the mob?

Quote:Views: 460,985

$1000 broken. This is Bitcoin!

(01-01-2017 07:58 PM)SunW Wrote:  What price will bring the mob?

Quote:Views: 460,985

Maybe if (and when) it goes past its ATH in price per USD? I know that BTC has already gone past it's ATH for market cap and also in some other less well performing currencies.

Maybe going past $2k might get some attention?

Mainstream does seem to be paying quite a bit more attention, but based overall on the trade volumes, I don't really think that FOMO has set in yet.. and the price increase has not quite gone exponential yet (if it is going to do so, it may be getting close to such?)

(01-01-2017 10:37 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  $1000 broken. This is Bitcoin!

I know that things can change fairly rapidly in bitcoinland, but a few days ago, I already posted that I had expected that there is a pretty decent chance that bitcoin prices will soar though $1,000 and maybe find some resistance in the $1,060 to $1,180 price territory....

so, yeah, we are going to have to see how $1,000 plus plays out, but my scenario seems to be kind of playing out, this time...

Currently, there still seems to be decent and ongoing buying pressure, even at these prices.. and the real battle for price, still, does not seem to have begun (unless somehow I am missing the evidence of such a supposed price battle?) ..

We have had fairly gradual and ongoing increases in bitcoin prices and really no meaningful correction since lower $600s... Anyhow, that is a 2/3 price appreciation in about 3 months so a correction could happen at any time, and I am tentatively thinking that there could be some resistance in the $1,060 to $1,180 price range - though I was wrong about my anticipation of experiencing resistance in the mid to upper $800s.

If we end up sailing past potential resistance in the $1,060 to $1,180 price range, then probably the next area of resistance would $2k to $4k...

Gosh.. holy fuck.. 2016 and even transitioning into 2017 has been good for bitcoin HODLers.. and if you go back to the beginning of this particular bull run, we are looking at between a 400% to 500% increase in BTC prices since mid to late 2015 from lower $200s to our current prices hovering a bit over $1k. Whoaza!
$200s to .

JJG, what's your take on the Chinese government trying to put up capital controls to keep people from transferring their yuan out of the country through bitcoin?

And if you're linking articles, please quote them here. If it's just a link, I tend to not read it.

(01-02-2017 01:06 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  JJG, what's your take on the Chinese government trying to put up capital controls to keep people from transferring their yuan out of the country through bitcoin?

I understand that sometimes it is confusing and difficult to understand some of the specifics about what is going on in china, and there have been several misinterpretations and confusion in the past regarding China's stance in respect to bitcoin.

Regarding that specific currency controls issue that was announced within the past few days, I did not read anything that said that the restrictions were in any way aimed specifically at bitcoin, but instead seems to be ways to impose new restrictions on already existing channels of storage and transfer of value.

Sure those chinese efforts may also be attempts to apply to bitcoin, but no matter what bitcoin is a bit more difficult to monitor and control compared to various other traditional means and channels of value storage and/or transfer methods.

Accordingly when countries take some of these kinds of actions regarding traditional means, it could be bullish for bitcoin. That would not be the only thing affecting ongoing and upward price pressures on bitcoin, but additional controls in china may actually cause more chinese folks to discover bitcoin and then to attempt to use it (whether covertly or overtly).

Do you have something else in mind regarding the Chinese issue? Do you have some kind of link or description that actually says something about the recent discussion of controls in China being targeted specifically to bitcoin in some kind of way?

(01-02-2017 01:06 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  And if you're linking articles, please quote them here. If it's just a link, I tend to not read it.

I'm sorry that you don't read some of my links. I do attempt to put in links to articles that I believe are relevant and interesting, and I tend to make comments about what is in the link, if you were to click on the link.

I guess that I just have a different philosophy when it comes to posting links. I attempt to describe them accurately, or at least what I believe to be relevant to my own thinking about the article (to the extent that I have understood it or to potentially be of interest to RVF guys).

It is usually not my style to quote anything that I link, unless there is something that seems really important as a quote to some point that I am making. In sum, I figure that if RVF guys are sufficiently interested in my description then they can find more by clicking on the link.

Do you guys think it's time to re-buy some bitcoin or the price is too high for the moment ?
Which other cryptocurrencies do you recommend for 2017 ?

(01-02-2017 07:27 AM)Mat_hieu Wrote:  Do you guys think it's time to re-buy some bitcoin or the price is too high for the moment ?

Whether you buy bitcoin or not partly depends on whether you own any. If you don't own any then now is as good of a time to start as any (since you cannot buy yesterday)... so if you start to buy now, then you should also consider holding some fiat in reserve in case there are dips in BTC prices.

(01-02-2017 07:27 AM)Mat_hieu Wrote:  Which other cryptocurrencies do you recommend for 2017 ?

There is another thread regarding alt cryptos

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-32992.html

(05-29-2016 02:12 PM)SunW Wrote:  Thread has 371,817 views

Price was $517 then and now it has 461,416 views. Dayum.

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

Gots me a problem. I have too many bitcoins from purchases last year and this year.

(01-02-2017 08:13 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(05-29-2016 02:12 PM)SunW Wrote:  Thread has 371,817 views

Price was $517 then and now it has 461,416 views. Dayum.

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

Gots me a problem. I have too many bitcoins from purchases last year and this year.

Seems almost broken if there were that many views within a few months; however, it may be views from outside of RVF, too.


Having too many coins is not a bad problem to have, at least in the past three months when going from low $600s to low $1,000s....

Sure, I shed a bit of coins all the way up.. and every once in a while, I am thinking that I have too much fiat, because coins keep going up, but I have a difficult time changing my system too much, and that fiat could come in handy from time to time....

My latest calculation is still about 91.9% of my holdings in bitcoin, but even having 8.1% in fiat starts to feel like a lot of fucking fiat when the prices are this high, and that fiat feels like it is not really working, like is "the bitcoin."

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

(01-02-2017 08:13 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(05-29-2016 02:12 PM)SunW Wrote:  Thread has 371,817 views

Price was $517 then and now it has 461,416 views. Dayum.

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

Gots me a problem. I have too many bitcoins from purchases last year and this year.

I want to see if I can predict btc's price close again and make it 3 out of 3 years right. For 2017, btc will end above $1825. This thread will have over 1 million views.

(01-02-2017 10:31 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

(01-02-2017 08:13 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(05-29-2016 02:12 PM)SunW Wrote:  Thread has 371,817 views

Price was $517 then and now it has 461,416 views. Dayum.

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

Gots me a problem. I have too many bitcoins from purchases last year and this year.

I want to see if I can predict btc's price close again and make it 3 out of 3 years right. For 2017, btc will end above $1825. This thread will have over 1 million views.

That prediction is fair enough, but I wonder if I can coax any more specifics out of you?

Would you put an upper end on your prediction in order that it is a range rather than claiming all territory above $1,825, because if the price ends up above $2,500, for example, which is possible, then I really doubt that your claim of being correct would be reasonable.

I personally think it terms of probabilities and ranges, and I have some difficulties, even in my own thinking of being specific, especially 12 months down the road.. but I in the past I have made various speculations on ranges.. and, like you, I remain pretty optimistic regarding the whole of the upcoming year, and I think that there is a decent chance that we will witness prices in the $3k to $5k range sometime during the year and a couple of decent corrections.... I also think that our next area of resistance in the coming week or so remains in the $1,060 to $1,180 arena.

That prediction of a million view for this thread is quite optimistic too, whoaza.....

JJG - people have been saying bitcoin is going to hit $5K for four years that I remember. It hasn't and I don't see it hitting that high this year. It's a favorite price that btc people love to say. I see bitcoin staying less than $3K this year and ending around $1825. Could be higher and lower at times.

(01-02-2017 10:31 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

(01-02-2017 08:13 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(05-29-2016 02:12 PM)SunW Wrote:  Thread has 371,817 views

Price was $517 then and now it has 461,416 views. Dayum.

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

Gots me a problem. I have too many bitcoins from purchases last year and this year.

I want to see if I can predict btc's price close again and make it 3 out of 3 years right. For 2017, btc will end above $1825. This thread will have over 1 million views.

(01-02-2017 05:25 PM)SunW Wrote:  JJG - people have been saying bitcoin is going to hit $5K for four years that I remember. It hasn't and I don't see it hitting that high this year. It's a favorite price that btc people love to say.

People including myself say all kinds of shit. Sure, $5k is a nice round number, yet there have been a whole hell of a lot of folks using $10k as their goal post.. that was a number thrown around a lot between 2011 and 2014 (and $10k was not discussed as much in 2015 or even early 2016, but it is kind of coming back into some of the vocabulary of various BTC predictions as a nice round number, I think).

I did not say $5,000 "will hit" or anything like that.

I said that I believe that there is a decent likelihood of between $3k and $5k during this 2017 calendar year... It could go higher or maybe it does not reach that price range exactly, and in that regard, I think that it is really difficult to predict in any kind of linear manner, because any subsequent performance is going to depend upon preceding events that have not yet occurred and those preceding events can change the trajectory and even change the predictions... and that is why I hate to pinpoint any exact specifics in my personal price projections because such a practice just seems too absolutist and/or fatalistical from my perspective and I don't see the world working like that... or the future or human behavior or outcomes being very knowable except in kind of ballparks. The unknowns that have not yet happened have a lot of variables, can change the trajectory and only become certain after they have happened.

Anyhow, your assertion that you don't believe that even $3k will happen in 2017 remains within reasonable. I give your reasonable a lower probability that you do, but whatever, we are each entitled to our own perceptions about what seems to be "reasonable"

Another point, along the same lines that I would like to make that I have already made several times, but I think that it bears some repeating and reiteration.

I am considerably surprised that BTC prices are in their current location at this particular time and with this level of seemingly lack of resistance and seemingly ongoing BTC buying pressures and an ongoing status of no meaningful price correction since the lower $600s.. but at the same time, this particular price rise (in comparison with past price rises and what is within the realm of possibilities) has been fairly gradual and seemingly supported because the rise from lower $600s to present status took place over 3 months.. and the slope upwards is increasingly steeper and steeper.. looking back all the way to the $200s

So yeah, there seems to be ongoing buying support here, at this price point, and if this upwardness continues past the upper end of my previous asserted resistance range ($1,180-ish), then it seems that we have a really decent chance to go past $2k in this run up... but the fact that we have not had any meaningful correction since lower $600s likely will also take away from some of the upside momentum (or fuel or support) which may not allow BTC prices to get into the $3k to $5k range without some kind of meaningful correction.

Sure I could be wrong about all of this, and BTC prices could still go into the $3k to $5k range and beyond. Such a rise beyond $5k is not outside of the realm of possibilities, even though it seems less likely of an occurrence - but currently it also seems much more reasonable to be predicting anything above $2k, or $3k or even $5k than it did to be attempting any of those kinds of predictions in the middle of 2015 or even in the early or middle part of 2016.

Times have change a bit.

The way that this whole matter has been playing out since about early October 2016 has caused a whole new level of possibilities that have only become more possible, probable and reasonable within expectations because of the way that October 2016 to present has played out in bitcoinlandia.

And, you should also admit (go on admit it SunW ) that your now seemingly "lame" prediction of $900 for the end of 2016 has turned out quite a bit more bullish than even you had anticipated.. I mean we were kind of biting our nails there for quite a while with any expectation of anything in the $900 territory for 2016, and it was a squeaker, no? The $900 really only become feasible in about the last week of December because we had spent almost the whole early parts of the month of December with questions about whether we were going to be able to get through resistance in the $700s. amirite?

(01-02-2017 05:25 PM)SunW Wrote:  I see bitcoin staying less than $3K this year and ending around $1825. Could be higher and lower at times.

In my head, I will grant you 10% on either side of your end of 2017 prediction as being reasonable (that would make it reasonable within $1,825 +/-10% = ($1,642.50 to $2,007.50) - unless you prefer to take a smaller margin. hahahahahahaha

This guy, Clif High, seems to have a track record of conspiracy theories and predicting upcoming calamities.

He does seem to get a few things right, but I think that he is a bit of a nutjob.

He talks about bitcoin for about 5 minutes, starting around minute 25-ish


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GB2p-ShC_iw

This is a very short article giving a variety of factors regarding whether bitcoin will be challenging the ATH in the near future. I am actually kind of considering the upcoming challenge of the ATH in the coming weeks as a kind of given... (and that is $1,163 on Bitstamp). We are getting closer and closer, and more and more in reach of such $1,163 price point.


https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/will-bit...time-high/




Here's another article concerning bitcoin trade volume picking up in Mexico. Lot's of good mexico related info.



https://news.bitcoin.com/why-volume-is-e...ifications

(01-02-2017 01:34 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(01-02-2017 01:06 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  JJG, what's your take on the Chinese government trying to put up capital controls to keep people from transferring their yuan out of the country through bitcoin?

I understand that sometimes it is confusing and difficult to understand some of the specifics about what is going on in china, and there have been several misinterpretations and confusion in the past regarding China's stance in respect to bitcoin.

Regarding that specific currency controls issue that was announced within the past few days, I did not read anything that said that the restrictions were in any way aimed specifically at bitcoin, but instead seems to be ways to impose new restrictions on already existing channels of storage and transfer of value.

Sure those chinese efforts may also be attempts to apply to bitcoin, but no matter what bitcoin is a bit more difficult to monitor and control compared to various other traditional means and channels of value storage and/or transfer methods.

Accordingly when countries take some of these kinds of actions regarding traditional means, it could be bullish for bitcoin. That would not be the only thing affecting ongoing and upward price pressures on bitcoin, but additional controls in china may actually cause more chinese folks to discover bitcoin and then to attempt to use it (whether covertly or overtly).

Do you have something else in mind regarding the Chinese issue? Do you have some kind of link or description that actually says something about the recent discussion of controls in China being targeted specifically to bitcoin in some kind of way?

(01-02-2017 01:06 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  And if you're linking articles, please quote them here. If it's just a link, I tend to not read it.

I'm sorry that you don't read some of my links. I do attempt to put in links to articles that I believe are relevant and interesting, and I tend to make comments about what is in the link, if you were to click on the link.

I guess that I just have a different philosophy when it comes to posting links. I attempt to describe them accurately, or at least what I believe to be relevant to my own thinking about the article (to the extent that I have understood it or to potentially be of interest to RVF guys).

It is usually not my style to quote anything that I link, unless there is something that seems really important as a quote to some point that I am making. In sum, I figure that if RVF guys are sufficiently interested in my description then they can find more by clicking on the link.

Hey CleanSlate,

I just came across this article which could be a kind of supplement of my previous response to you.

The article seems to be somewhat consistent with my earlier response to you by indicating that the controls in china are kind of directed at traditional means rather than bitcoin, yet the article asserts that it could be possible that china flips some internet switches and is able to control bitcoin.. I personally doubt that controlling bitcoin is as easy as some may theorize it to be, even in china, and I am not even sure whether the chinese powers that be have any kind of motivating desire to attempt to focus specifically on controls related to bitcoin, but like I asserted earlier, it does seem that their attempts of controls of traditional financial means may continue to put upwards price pressures on bitcoin currently and potentially into the future.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-02...l-controls

I think that this below thread provides a decent talking point too, regarding bitcoin's price currently over $1,000 and "holding".



https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...s_history/


So, we will see how many days bitcoin can stay largely above $1,000. In the past day or so, there has been a few instances in which it has corrected below $1,000, so surely our status above $1,000 is in no way assured, and it is not assured that support is going to continue above $1k.. but we will find out in the coming days and in the coming weeks, no?

I personally think that there is a decent chance that we are going to stay above $1k and continue to move upwards.

This is it guys, Bitcoin can only go up from here. Some have predicted in the thousands and tens of thousands soon.

(01-03-2017 06:03 PM)Olav Wrote:  This is it guys, Bitcoin can only go up from here. Some have predicted in the thousands and tens of thousands soon.

Could be.

Getting within 10% of the previous dollar ATH is a good sign, even though bitcoin prices in other currencies and market cap in dollars has already passed previous ATHs