Post: #1

I thought I'd create a discussion on China for the sole purpose of intellectual/mental masturbation. Not sure if this is in the right forum (maybe lifestyle is better).

China has always fascinated me. Part of the reason is, I guess, because I'm a Chinese American (though you can surely find many ABCs who have no interest in the subject), but i think another part has to do with the fact that China is such a complex and interesting place. On the one hand, you have a society that is still a developing country with many "emerging market" problems/factors: it has yet to reach its maximum production potential, it still has significant poverty, lots of corruption, and more traditional/non-western mindsets outside of the megacities. On the other hand, China is experiencing some "developed country" problems: it is reaching max pollution levels, it is getting old faster than it is getting rich, and in the megacities, it has reached a level of cosmopolitan SWPL moral depravity that would make many playboys blush.

In any case, what are everyone's thoughts on China in terms of its future trajectory? Economically, socially, poon-wise - are things going to get better in terms of economic opportunities, social harmony/stability, and getting tail as a foreigner?

Post: #2

Some of the Zerohedge.com posts suggest that China is in the middle of a credit bubble. When it pops, there will be some serious fallout.

We can't really discuss the Chinese economy because the statistics are censored or fudged to suit the interests of the ruling party.

My personal, admittedly uninformed, bet is that China will be in recession in 2014 once loans start defaulting en mass.

Post: #3

China,despite the biggest resource grab since the British empire is still cash rich, they have good relations with the majority of the globe and are building up control of every type of resource including metals, energy , minerals, arable land and water. They will be the only remaining superpower in ten years if the yanks do not get some self awareness with regards to their chronic waste of resources.

Post: #4

I think one of the most understated problems is the demographic shift on two fronts: age and gender ratio. For reasons most seemingly explained by Mao's encouragement of population growth, followed by the one-child rule,Chinas average age is expected to shoot all the way up to 40 by 2025, according to the OECD. This means that social security will largely be a burden that falls on the limited amount children(most likely 1 child per household) relative to their much old parents and grandparents.

Fertiity rates in China are also insanely low with cities like Shangai being as low as .96 births per woman, way below the replacement rate at 2.1. This only exacerbates the ageing population problem.Also, as a game forum, I'm sure I don't need to explain to implications of a 118-110 male to female ratio amongst newborns in 2010, as cited by the Economist. Hell most guys on the forum freak out at a 2-1 male to female ratio at their local bar. Now imagine in China where some Males simply won't have access to women. No dates. No bangs. No marriage. Nothing. Since males have been the preferred gender historically in China for economic reasons its hard to see this trend changing in the near future.

Post: #5

The ageing population in China is not as serious as they make it out to be. Unlike the US the Chinese save for retirement so they are expected to be self sufficient in their old age with a 40 percent annual savings rate. Unlike America they know thd government will not support them on their old age

Post: #6

(11-27-2012 11:43 AM)iWin Wrote:  Now imagine in China where some Males simply won't have access to women. No dates. No bangs. No marriage. Nothing. Since males have been the preferred gender historically in China for economic reasons its hard to see this trend changing in the near future.

I guess we'll be seeing more Chinese in Thailand and the Philippines.

Who thinks they'll be major cockblocks?

Post: #7

I'm very bullish on it. It might face a small crisis due to the burst of its credit bubble in the future, but its fundamentals are very strong. Furthermore, even though suffering from serious corruption, its leadership is willing to make tough decisions and push through things like fiscal stimuli, that have become a hopeless effort in both Europe and USA.

As far as its demographic burden goes, I salute China. It has sacrificed a lot of future economic progress in order to ensure that population (both its and world's) doesn't balloon unsustainably, which certainly cannot be said for India or most of Africa. If it wanted to return to 2 children policy in the future, it would be totally understandable.

I can't comment on how the gender ratio will affect its economy, if any, but it's going to be interesting.

Post: #8

Bullish. Chinas population decline is a result of a direct government measure, and people do indeed save up. ChiCom can turn up the birth rate at a whim. Chinese companies are all over the world, most importantly staking out claims to Africa's resources. The Chinese are the most pragmatic people I know. Go to any american university library friday/saturday night. Who's there?

I don't think Western culture has much effect on China, since they realize they are going up and we are going down. This is the century of the dragon.

The interesting question is if China will attempt military expansions, or just set up enclaves in foreign countries (Chinatowns x100). I.e. have Chinese male expats working for chinese firms in foreign countries marry foreign (Asian) women (the Han Chinese are racist, but they are also pragmatic - avoiding revolution by males unable to find wives is more important).

Post: #9

(11-27-2012 01:21 AM)Thomas the Rhymer Wrote:  Some of the Zerohedge.com posts suggest that China is in the middle of a credit bubble. When it pops, there will be some serious fallout.

We can't really discuss the Chinese economy because the statistics are censored or fudged to suit the interests of the ruling party.

My personal, admittedly uninformed, bet is that China will be in recession in 2014 once loans start defaulting en mass.

Agreed.

Short term on China: Bearish.

Quote:I'm very bullish on it. It might face a small crisis due to the burst of its credit bubble in the future, but its fundamentals are very strong. Furthermore, even though suffering from serious corruption, its leadership is willing to make tough decisions and push through things like fiscal stimuli, that have become a hopeless effort in both Europe and USA.

Also agreed.

Long term on China: Bullish.

Post: #10

(11-28-2012 03:57 AM)Norset Wrote:  The interesting question is if China will attempt military expansions, or just set up enclaves in foreign countries (Chinatowns x100). I.e. have Chinese male expats working for chinese firms in foreign countries marry foreign (Asian) women (the Han Chinese are racist, but they are also pragmatic - avoiding revolution by males unable to find wives is more important).

If we go to go by history, China has traditionally not be an imperialistic nation like the Europeans and Americans have been. Even when they were at the peak of their power and capable of colonizing other nations, they chose not to. America has been in more foreign conflicts in it's less then 300 year history then China has been in it's 5000 year history. Look at the way China is dealing with Africa right now. They aren't barging in and overthrowing governments and setting up puppet regimes like the US has done in South and Central America nor are they sending in the gunboats like the British did to them in the 19th century and what the Europeans did to the Africans in the same century. Instead they are working with the governments of these African nations and investing money into the infrastructure of these countries. This has led to some criticism from Western nations that China is somehow violating human rights by working with governments known for corruption and abuse of their citizens even though said Western nations have brought forth more misery through their interference with other civilizations. The criticism from the west is just further fueling Chinese nationalism and the sense that the West is out to keep them down in the dirt - just like they did when China was being carved up by the West and Japan in the 19th century.

And Chinese have already been immigrating to South-East Asian countries for a while now. In Thailand and Vietnam, the upper-class of these countries tend to come from Chinese blood. The Chinese, especially those of Cantonese extract have been very successful when it comes to moving to these countries and setting up businesses. Outside of Anglos and Jews I would say that Chinese are the best and most natural capitalists - they love making money more then most other peoples do. Communism is pretty much totally contrary to the Chinese spirit and you can see how despite mainland China being Communist in name the people are very much capitalists. What two places on earth have the most economic freedom and unabashed capitalism? Hong Kong and Singapore, both of which are made up of mostly Chinese.

Post: #11

Short Term Bearish ( Real Estate Bubble, Ghost City's ) Long Term Bullish massive Growth potential, savers.

Post: #12

(11-28-2012 05:44 AM)Wutang Wrote:  

(11-28-2012 03:57 AM)Norset Wrote:  The interesting question is if China will attempt military expansions, or just set up enclaves in foreign countries (Chinatowns x100). I.e. have Chinese male expats working for chinese firms in foreign countries marry foreign (Asian) women (the Han Chinese are racist, but they are also pragmatic - avoiding revolution by males unable to find wives is more important).

If we go to go by history, China has traditionally not be an imperialistic nation like the Europeans and Americans have been. Even when they were at the peak of their power and capable of colonizing other nations, they chose not to. America has been in more foreign conflicts in it's less then 300 year history then China has been in it's 5000 year history. Look at the way China is dealing with Africa right now. They aren't barging in and overthrowing governments and setting up puppet regimes like the US has done in South and Central America nor are they sending in the gunboats like the British did to them in the 19th century and what the Europeans did to the Africans in the same century. Instead they are working with the governments of these African nations and investing money into the infrastructure of these countries. This has led to some criticism from Western nations that China is somehow violating human rights by working with governments known for corruption and abuse of their citizens even though said Western nations have brought forth more misery through their interference with other civilizations. The criticism from the west is just further fueling Chinese nationalism and the sense that the West is out to keep them down in the dirt - just like they did when China was being carved up by the West and Japan in the 19th century.

And Chinese have already been immigrating to South-East Asian countries for a while now. In Thailand and Vietnam, the upper-class of these countries tend to come from Chinese blood. The Chinese, especially those of Cantonese extract have been very successful when it comes to moving to these countries and setting up businesses. Outside of Anglos and Jews I would say that Chinese are the best and most natural capitalists - they love making money more then most other peoples do. Communism is pretty much totally contrary to the Chinese spirit and you can see how despite mainland China being Communist in name the people are very much capitalists. What two places on earth have the most economic freedom and unabashed capitalism? Hong Kong and Singapore, both of which are made up of mostly Chinese.

Thank you for your insights. Ok so my "prediction" is already happening; top Chinese men moving to other asian countries and forming new (powerful) families there. I assume you have some form of direct link to Chinese culture (user name?).

As far as Westerners condemning Chinas' capitalist expansion actions, I agree that it's hypocrisy at its finest.

Post: #13

The migration of men to other countries is already happening - ChinaSmack did a piece on Chinese men buying brides in Vietnam for dirty cheap prices. And these are not rich men in China.

Post: #14

(11-27-2012 11:13 PM)clever alias Wrote:  The ageing population in China is not as serious as they make it out to be. Unlike the US the Chinese save for retirement so they are expected to be self sufficient in their old age with a 40 percent annual savings rate. Unlike America they know thd government will not support them on their old age

The Chinese government certainly thinks it's serious and is seriously considering reversing the infamous one -child policy to compensate as cited here.

Furthermore, China's booming working age population is due to plummet meaning more dependent citizens in relation to working citizens.Obviously, without the same volume of new workers entering the workforce especially in relation to the past when there was a ton, the only logical conclusion is that growth will drastically slow or even come to a halt completely. This would e a situation similar to Japan when you also account for the aforementioned bubbles forming. Productivity will plummet as well. Another consequence could see investment capital flow out of China and into countries with much younger populations, who are able to be more productive and perhaps add more value. Consequently, China will have to look to immigration to fulfill labor needs, while also importing more commodities due to capital flowing out and insufficient labor supply.

Although China does not social welfare programs for the elderly quite to the extent that occurs in the US, their current pension system will come under even more pressure, due to sheer number of increasing beneficiaries, shrinking cash flow.In any event its hard to see how a 4(2 sets of grandparents)-2(a married couple)-1(one-child) structure can be a good thing in the long run for the health of the economy or not at least generate serious concern.

Post: #15

I'm cautious on the stability of China. More and more capitalist are taking their money and settling overseas.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/201...eing-china

If you also look at the History of China, the majority of the time it's had a tough time staying unified - and controlling a Billion+ people is no fucking joke. Who gives a fuck about expansion when you can barely control what you got? A big reason why you have many Overseas Chinese (I'm one myself - My lineage came from the Ming Dynasty into Vietnam and then to the US) is because constant strife throughout history. They don't even trust themselves to run their own Government.

Good times may be rolling economically now but what's going to happen when the business cycle goes on a recession? or even a depression after tasting growth for the past several decades? That's a tough test to follow up on. I'm in Hong Kong right now and while HK has it's own government from the Mainland now - most of the locals here are considering getting out once the 50 years is up due to uncertainty.

Post: #16

(11-27-2012 01:21 AM)Thomas the Rhymer Wrote:  Some of the Zerohedge.com posts suggest that China is in the middle of a credit bubble. When it pops, there will be some serious fallout.

We can't really discuss the Chinese economy because the statistics are censored or fudged to suit the interests of the ruling party.

My personal, admittedly uninformed, bet is that China will be in recession in 2014 once loans start defaulting en mass.

This.

China cannot sustain growth like it has. Massive property bubble, issues with the ruling party, lack of domestic consumption, political issues still continuing, little room, aging population even worse than the US, dependence on lukewarm trade agreements, etc. It's gonna pop and go down long term, no question at all.