Post: #26

Economic growth in the 00s was fake. It was based on massive lending and unhealthy economic principles - essentially a massive wealth transfer from the middle class to the upper class in this country (and others).

This was not for lack of political intervention, but because of it. For almost the whole 20th century, the degree to which politicians meddle, distort, and destroy the economy has taken on epic proportions, each new crisis justifying even greater degrees of centrally planned economy.

In any circumstance, the ECB and Fed have obviously decided the debt levels, both household as well as government levels, are simply unsustainably too high to be paid back in real terms.

I'd like to point out Romney understands this. The only real cure to what ails us is LESS government. Not more. Adam Smith said it long ago...

Post: #27

Does anyone in this thread believe the US faces hyperinflation? Or even inflation approaching 10% per annum?

Post: #28

At one point they will.... But first they have to get through the collapse of the shadow banking system which I am sure will cause deflation first. But as for inflation over 10% a year we have hit that once or twice already in the last 5 years.

Check out John Williams over at http://www.shadowstats.com. He is the only guy I know of who correctly tracks inflation. He is an economist and I believe he worked at the treasury at one point in his life. He knows his shit. The data is not manipulated unlike what the FED and treasury put out.

Post: #29

China and Russia are buying gold like crazy. The Chinese are encouraging their citizens to buy gold and silver. The only assets that you can trust right now are the metals. Everything else is dangerous, just look at Peregrine Financila, and MF Global. ALL of the banks are in the red because of derivatives.

Post: #30

BIGINJAPAN Wrote:Dude for being a red pill guy you are clearly still ignorant in finance.

Au contraire, just because red pill means seeing through a false image it doesn't mean we should assume everything else is false too. After all, the original "reality" about women and sexual market that some of us used to believe in is not a conspiracy theory. I see no reason to use it as a basis for studying other, unrelated fields.

Post: #31

(09-13-2012 01:52 PM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  Worldwide speaking, we've been off the gold standard for so long that fears about "printing money with no coverage" are very exaggerated - the entire world has been functioning that way for decades and look - no hyperinflation!

absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

also, 40 years is hardly a robust sample size.

lastly, Europeans are scared to death to let inflation rise because they can remember in their own lives and their parents/grandparents' lives the last time.

Post: #32

So I should switch all my shit to the euro immediately? Would that be a good idea? I'm not much of an economics guy.

Post: #33

Having the majority of your money in wrapped in mutual funds would be a some what safe bet on inflation?

Post: #34

(09-14-2012 07:56 AM)Hades Wrote:  So I should switch all my shit to the euro immediately? Would that be a good idea? I'm not much of an economics guy.

Not to sound glib, but you probably shouldn't make major financial decisions based on what someone on an anonymous internet forum tells you.

Every person's financial needs are different and you should be investing based on your own situation, not running back and forth to different assets every time some macro event happens.

Post: #35

(09-14-2012 07:56 AM)Hades Wrote:  So I should switch all my shit to the euro immediately? Would that be a good idea? I'm not much of an economics guy.

Not necessesarilly. Like others have said, the QE will most likely devalue the dollar, but it may have a ripple effect to other currencies. If you had some money, a good option would be to actually put a little down on a house. You could get a favorable interest rate right now and the devaluation of the currency/inflation of the dollar would make the mortgage "easier" to pay off. Even if you never lived there, within a few years, rent that you'd collect would more than likely greatly surpass your monthly costs, depending on the area/dmand/property taxes/insurance/etc. The point is, investments that involve YOU owing someone some money at a fixed interest rate could be the way to go at this point.

Post: #36

America has not seen legitimate growth in its economy since the 70's. Everything since then has been a bubble filed by debt. The tech boom of the 90s was fake, 90% of those companies are gone. The real ground work for tech was laid out by players in the 70s whom are still heavy hitters today. The 00s was housing fluff spurred on by Clinton and Bush. 70% of homeowners got taken to the cleaners on that. That morphed into a derivatives bubble in which nothing of reality is sold as something with value. The establishment has never let the economy naturally fix itself. The late 70s scared the hell out of the establishment and it has bubble and bust ever since then. The hole is to big now to fill, but people are chasing the wrong boogie man. Hyperinflation is not the problem.


It's deflation not inflation. Yes prices in commodities will shoot up because your dollar is worth less but overall in a macro scale things are still regressing.

There is a 1.5 QUADRILLION DOLLAR black hole of debt the USA and world is trying to fill. All the FED is doing is funneling dirt into a bottomless pit. The establishment wants inflation. I'll say it again... ESTABLISHMENT WANTS INFLATION. because as others have noted debts are more easy to pay and your can spur bubbles way more easy. So because of this I don't buy the hyperinflation talk. The USD is already almost worthless and it won't be the FED that breaks Americas back...

People say its China. But not at all...

Japan will soon/is be the largest holders of USA debt after the USA itself. Japan... By far is the most fucked up and crapped out economy on the globe. Debt to GDP ratios which are off the charts and make no sense. They have deflated for 20+ years and have forced all their people to cycle their savings into worthless Govt bonds. And now with Fukashima and the Govt offloading nuclear power and having to get energy on the pricy global markets, and with their well known demographic issues they are fucked.

America has lent money to the crack junkie downtown basically, while its battling alcohol and hopping the crack junkie can hold on to it's cash.

Post: #37

(09-14-2012 07:56 AM)Hades Wrote:  So I should switch all my shit to the euro immediately? Would that be a good idea? I'm not much of an economics guy.

NO ! Every single currency is be debased. It is a race to the bottom and the government and banks are trying to make it so we all get there at the same time. Holding any currency is risky at this point, but if you had to hold a couple over the other I would be buying the loonie, francs, Norwegian Kroner. Not huge amounts either, but I would open an account where you could hold money denominated in those currencies.

I agree with an above comment about you shouldn't base your decisions on something on a message board. My career revolves around finance and I may know more about this particular topic than some but I don't know your situation. You should allows look into things on your own and study it up. But one piece of advice I can give and I will know that will work for you is DO NOT PUT ALL YOUR MONEY INTO ONE INVESTMENT. That includes gold and silver.

Post: #38

(09-14-2012 08:21 AM)AWOLNomad Wrote:  Having the majority of your money in wrapped in mutual funds would be a some what safe bet on inflation?

Mutual funds are the greatest finance scam of the 20th century. I would not recommend you hold them at any particular point in your life. Also the fact is that most of these managers and hedge fund guys got lucky over the course of 25-30 years. If you bought any stock in the 80's and 90's it went up. Now that times are tough and you actually just can't buy and hold the " smart money " is getting creamed. Barely any hedge funds are out performing the S&P.

Another piece of advice you can live by: NO ONE gives a fuck about your money except you. Mutual fund managers are not paid off performance, they are paid on commission and trades made.

All that being said, in a high inflation environment stocks are the 3rd best place to be, so they will go up nominally. But that doesn't mean you will see a real return. I encourage everyone to manage their own portfolio. It is not hard at all, you can literally do it with 5 minutes a week. If you can't do that then you are better off putting the money under the mattress and not mutual funds.

Post: #39

(09-14-2012 04:27 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

BIGINJAPAN Wrote:Dude for being a red pill guy you are clearly still ignorant in finance.

Au contraire, just because red pill means seeing through a false image it doesn't mean we should assume everything else is false too. After all, the original "reality" about women and sexual market that some of us used to believe in is not a conspiracy theory. I see no reason to use it as a basis for studying other, unrelated fields.

This isn't even close to a conspiracy theory... the FED chairman announces he's buying $40 billion per month plus Operation Twist (buying 10-year bonds) = $85 billion of new cash. This happened on live TV. Not a conspiracy.

Read more:

http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/QE3C.html

Quote:It's deflation not inflation. Yes prices in commodities will shoot up because your dollar is worth less but overall in a macro scale things are still regressing.

Kosko: It's called biflation.

Post: #40

(09-14-2012 11:13 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(09-14-2012 04:27 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

BIGINJAPAN Wrote:Dude for being a red pill guy you are clearly still ignorant in finance.

Au contraire, just because red pill means seeing through a false image it doesn't mean we should assume everything else is false too. After all, the original "reality" about women and sexual market that some of us used to believe in is not a conspiracy theory. I see no reason to use it as a basis for studying other, unrelated fields.

This isn't even close to a conspiracy theory... the FED chairman announces he's buying $40 billion per month plus Operation Twist (buying 10-year bonds) = $85 billion of new cash. This happened on live TV. Not a conspiracy.

Read more:

http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/QE3C.html

Quote:It's deflation not inflation. Yes prices in commodities will shoot up because your dollar is worth less but overall in a macro scale things are still regressing.

Kosko: It's called biflation.

Thanks for that. I did not know what the term would be. The end result isn't good though. Inflation only helps you if you own stuff, this is why rich people get so horny over it. But mega rich people are hedged up and love collapsing prices as it means fire sale prices on assets. the general public gets fucked each way in it though.

So does this mean helicopter Ben and the oligarchs whom are shareholders in the private FED Bank are selling Romney?

For a long time many viewed Ben sitting on his hands as a diss to Obama since QE3 would provide that minor dead cat bounce to the economy that would be enough to tide people over until the election. Many viewed this stall as a notion that Ben and the FED preferred Romney as they continued to let credit stall and the economy slug along.

So now we wait until Congress has to raise the debt cap again in December with the new Super committee. the circus and theater of last time was a gimmick. This Super committee can now swell up a new large ceiling with little to any scrutiny. This will probably be Congress's last swindle before the floor drops.

Post: #41

(09-14-2012 11:13 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(09-14-2012 04:27 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

BIGINJAPAN Wrote:Dude for being a red pill guy you are clearly still ignorant in finance.

Au contraire, just because red pill means seeing through a false image it doesn't mean we should assume everything else is false too. After all, the original "reality" about women and sexual market that some of us used to believe in is not a conspiracy theory. I see no reason to use it as a basis for studying other, unrelated fields.

This isn't even close to a conspiracy theory... the FED chairman announces he's buying $40 billion per month plus Operation Twist (buying 10-year bonds) = $85 billion of new cash. This happened on live TV. Not a conspiracy.

Read more:

http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/QE3C.html

Quote:It's deflation not inflation. Yes prices in commodities will shoot up because your dollar is worth less but overall in a macro scale things are still regressing.

Kosko: It's called biflation.

Money is used to control everything on this planet. Absolutely everything. You think there is no conspiracy here ? Who do think this benefits ?

Let's look at some facts: Before QE3 which is actually QE5 (operation twist 1 and 2 are samething) The stock market just hit a 4 year high, Unemployment is down from the high( if you believe that number ) and all interest rates are at all time record lows ( except our credit cards and lines of credit). So why now to launch QE3 ? Who does it benefit ? Obama ? perhaps. But most likely the banks are collapsing again behind the scenes and they need a backdoor bailout. This is speculation of course for the time being. But what I can tell you is this is a conspiracy and 99% of population will not benefit from this.

Post: #42

(09-14-2012 01:52 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

(09-14-2012 11:13 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(09-14-2012 04:27 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

BIGINJAPAN Wrote:Dude for being a red pill guy you are clearly still ignorant in finance.

Au contraire, just because red pill means seeing through a false image it doesn't mean we should assume everything else is false too. After all, the original "reality" about women and sexual market that some of us used to believe in is not a conspiracy theory. I see no reason to use it as a basis for studying other, unrelated fields.

This isn't even close to a conspiracy theory... the FED chairman announces he's buying $40 billion per month plus Operation Twist (buying 10-year bonds) = $85 billion of new cash. This happened on live TV. Not a conspiracy.

Read more:

http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/QE3C.html

Quote:It's deflation not inflation. Yes prices in commodities will shoot up because your dollar is worth less but overall in a macro scale things are still regressing.

Kosko: It's called biflation.

Money is used to control everything on this planet. Absolutely everything. You think there is no conspiracy here ? Who do think this benefits ?

Let's look at some facts: Before QE3 which is actually QE5 (operation twist 1 and 2 are samething) The stock market just hit a 4 year high, Unemployment is down from the high( if you believe that number ) and all interest rates are at all time record lows ( except our credit cards and lines of credit). So why now to launch QE3 ? Who does it benefit ? Obama ? perhaps. But most likely the banks are collapsing again behind the scenes and they need a backdoor bailout. This is speculation of course for the time being. But what I can tell you is this is a conspiracy and 99% of population will not benefit from this.

The banks are running in fumes and largely all broke. All they do is swap numbers with each other, none of the big players have any legit assets, all paper. They are Quadrillions deep in debt via CDS and Derivatives and will continue to loot us until they cover all of their spreads.

Post: #43

(09-13-2012 02:50 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  No doubt the Great depression was exacerbated by the contraction of the money supply. But it was the inflation of the 20's that led to crash and the great depression.

Incorrect.

Post: #44

(09-14-2012 09:59 PM)Gmac Wrote:  

(09-13-2012 02:50 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  No doubt the Great depression was exacerbated by the contraction of the money supply. But it was the inflation of the 20's that led to crash and the great depression.

Incorrect.

Well that changed my opinion.

Post: #45

I've always thought that Obama and his cronies were pulling out all the stops to prop things up long enough for him to get reelected. In his second term expect all hell to break loose economically and in foreign policy.

Post: #46

(09-14-2012 10:53 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

(09-14-2012 09:59 PM)Gmac Wrote:  

(09-13-2012 02:50 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  No doubt the Great depression was exacerbated by the contraction of the money supply. But it was the inflation of the 20's that led to crash and the great depression.

Incorrect.

Well that changed my opinion.

He's right though

Post: #47

(09-14-2012 11:19 PM)j r Wrote:  

(09-14-2012 10:53 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

(09-14-2012 09:59 PM)Gmac Wrote:  

(09-13-2012 02:50 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  No doubt the Great depression was exacerbated by the contraction of the money supply. But it was the inflation of the 20's that led to crash and the great depression.

Incorrect.

Well that changed my opinion.

He's right though

No he isn't. The increase of the money supply is well documented by the Federal Reserve. Guys like Peter Schiff and Ron Paul have exposed this fact time and time again. I honestly don't even know how this could be argued. The FED increased the money supply by 60% to devalue the dollar against the pound. They blew a huge real estate bubble that popped and a stock market bubble that popped. You can't blew bubbles if you don't have inflation.

Post: #48

I'll give you that big banks together (with their own investment funds, stock exchanges, markets, lobbies, bought politicians, judges and regulatory agencies) are fast on their way to becoming a character out of a conspiracy theory though. Their level of organization is far higher and more farsighted than ever before in history.

Whether this move by the government has anything to do with it I don't know. But that is an entirely separate issue from hyperinflation.

Post: #49

(09-13-2012 02:07 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

(09-13-2012 01:52 PM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  You are vastly overestimating the Fed's power. And besides, a little inflation is not a bad thing to spur thing forward (seeing how the central bank's obsession with keeping inflation at 1% has prevented recovery - at least in the EU). Worldwide speaking, we've been off the gold standard for so long that fears about "printing money with no coverage" are very exaggerated - the entire world has been functioning that way for decades and look - no hyperinflation!

I'll admit that I'm biased because I have no respect for whomever is behind that zerohedge thingy. And I'll also grant that, while I support printing money in this situation, it shouldn't be the giant vulture banks (I'm looking at you, Goldman Sachs) that pump it into the economy, it should be the direct action of the government.

Dude for being a red pill guy you are clearly still ignorant in finance. Inflation no matter what percentage is a bad thing. And if you think we have had an inflation rate of anywhere near 1-2%/year in the last 40 years you are so wrong. Name me one commodity that hasn't doubled in the last 10 years ? Nevermind in the last 40 years.

There is a huge difference between inflation and assest appreciation and by your comments you do not understand the difference.

The US hasn't experienced hyper inflation yet because you export your inflation all over the world. But one day cheques will be cashed and the chickens will come home to roost.

Commodities can increase for a slew of reasons. Considering in 2009 or 2010 the money supply contracted and food and oil prices still rose indicates increased global demand as the catalyst

Post: #50

This isn't about inflation per se, but this article provides a fine explanation for the rapid changes in food and oil prices that took place at that time. The demand was supposed to be falling due to both the onset of financial crisis slowing down almost all economies in the world and the increased supply.