Post: #1

So they've paid their foreign debts but are running the country into the ground to do it.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/argenti...61684.html

Where's it headed?

Post: #2

The more barriers to entry they impose on foreign investment the worse the state of the country will be.

They fucked over Repsol with the forced takeover of YPF, the state oil company.

Repsol was one of the few Western oil companies with the knowledge and expertise to mine the shale fields.

This will not encourage any foreign direct investment.

Now they are placing sanctions on British merchant ships docking in Buenos Aires.

They are also locked out of debt capital markets because they defaulted on their payments during the early 2000's which they still haven't paid back.

If their aim of running the country into the ground with no way of financing it, they're doing a great job.

Post: #3

So down the road, Argentina is gonna get CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP! What's the timeline? 1 year, 2 years?

How terrible is the government capable of becoming. The less a problem they have institutine socialist dictatorship, the longer they'll hold onto power, the worse the problem will get. Sometimes the leaders get deposed before it goes that far.

Post: #4

(08-07-2012 01:21 AM)ElJefe Wrote:  So down the road, Argentina is gonna get CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP! What's the timeline? 1 year, 2 years?

How terrible is the government capable of becoming. The less a problem they have institutine socialist dictatorship, the longer they'll hold onto power, the worse the problem will get. Sometimes the leaders get deposed before it goes that far.

Argentina has done this in a cycle within 2 or 3 years it will be cheap again. Argentina even has a museo de la deuda externa. It is just a way to rub it in that they aren't going to pay what they owe. By the time her term is done Argentina will be a buy and when the next president's term is up argentina will be a sell. But it could be a good few years for an adventurous person

Post: #5

Argentina is already in the process of heavy devaluation. I've posted about this before, and about arbitrage opportunities here. Protectionist policies guarantee that no imported products will be cheap as long as Mercosul tariffs are in effect. Internally, things are already cheap if you can get dollars or take advantage of blue chip swaps.

The government will indeed be in big trouble if soy prices drop significantly. If that happens there will be a big crash here. Otherwise, it's unlikely, but devaluation can continue for a while.

(08-08-2012 07:59 PM)johnw28 Wrote:  

(08-07-2012 01:21 AM)ElJefe Wrote:  So down the road, Argentina is gonna get CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP! What's the timeline? 1 year, 2 years?

How terrible is the government capable of becoming. The less a problem they have institutine socialist dictatorship, the longer they'll hold onto power, the worse the problem will get. Sometimes the leaders get deposed before it goes that far.

Argentina has done this in a cycle within 2 or 3 years it will be cheap again. Argentina even has a museo de la deuda externa. It is just a way to rub it in that they aren't going to pay what they owe. By the time her term is done Argentina will be a buy and when the next president's term is up argentina will be a sell. But it could be a good few years for an adventurous person

Post: #6

read your posts, portofmanteau. I keep on getting stalled, but I'm betting on a stay in Argetina next fall, will be bringing euros. Now that the bonds have been repaid, how are the cuevos doing? Is the rate still 7 ~ 1 or is it going back down?

Post: #7

(08-09-2012 07:40 AM)ElJefe Wrote:  read your posts, portofmanteau. I keep on getting stalled, but I'm betting on a stay in Argetina next fall, will be bringing euros. Now that the bonds have been repaid, how are the cuevos doing? Is the rate still 7 ~ 1 or is it going back down?

It fluctuates a little, but it should be above 7 - the cueva dollar rate for large volume is the "informal" rate shown here:

http://www.ambito.com/economia/mercados/dolar.asp

A slightly less current version tracking that, and showing the euro rate, is here:

http://dolarblue.net/

Real 100-peso bills have some fluorescent ink, so you might want to bring something like this:

http://www.amazon.com/LEDwholesalers-Vio...flashlight


Anyone who has a US bank account, for now, can be using xoom.com to get something very near the cueva rate, and not have to deal with bringing cash.

Post: #8

(08-09-2012 11:50 AM)portofmanteau Wrote:  Anyone who has a US bank account, for now, can be using xoom.com to get something very near the cueva rate, and not have to deal with bringing cash.

sorry, I am a bit illiterate financially, but is it the same thing with an account in Europe (and in Euros).

Also, I live in argentina and need to buy a plane ticket urgently. Do you know of a local travel agency that offers good prices for iunternational flights, so what i might earn in conversion doesn t get washed up because of the difference in prices with online comparators?

Post: #9

(08-09-2012 01:37 PM)TheShiningOne Wrote:  sorry, I am a bit illiterate financially, but is it the same thing with an account in Europe (and in Euros).

Also, I live in argentina and need to buy a plane ticket urgently. Do you know of a local travel agency that offers good prices for iunternational flights, so what i might earn in conversion doesn t get washed up because of the difference in prices with online comparators?

1. If you have bills, you can trade euros in a cueva, or likely through arbolitos (guys hanging around av. Florida saying "cambio?"). I have no experience with this, but Argentines do it all the time. They will likely take you into an off-street business to do the actual change. If you're worried about counterfeits, a handheld blacklight should detect the fluorescent ink on bills. Alternatively, ask to sell your euros in a chinese supermarket. Currently you should get around 7 pesos to the euro using this method. I do not know of a similar service to xoom for European account holders, although I know of a Briton who used "Ria Financial Services" in London for a money transfer to a BA local partner, Argenprep, for a favorable exchange rate. If you're living here long-term, you should look into setting up a brokerage account for blue chip swap transfers, as you'll get a significantly better rate that way (closer to 6.7 ARS:USD). I think the minimum for this to make it worth the Argentine broker's time is ~$10k USD per transfer, they won't do it for less as their margins will be too low.

2. If you find a price on kayak.com or some other website with a major airline listed in USD, you can either buy that flight directly using an Argentine credit card denominated in pesos (which I'm guess you don't have) to get the official 4.6 exchange rate, or you can buy the same ticket from an Argentine travel agent in cash (pesos), with something near that official rate. WTS travel gives a 4.7 conversion, slightly worse than the official rate, but if you're getting 7 pesos to the euro (or 6.2 to the dollar), that's still a ~25% discount on flights. It's only about 2% off of what you'd be getting with 4.6, so you're still getting a massive discount. However, if you walk down Florida, there are a hundred travel agents that will do this for you.

You can buy tickets in other people's names as well, so if some enterprising and trustworthy forum member feels like starting a small business here for some pocket money, until this loophole is closed, there you go. Large volume on this would probably get you audited by multiple tax authorities and expose you to having airlines cancel tickets, etc. - it's strictly a small-time deal, I'd say.

Post: #10

Argentina Freezes Supermarket Prices To Halt Soaring Inflation; Chaos To Follow

Up until now, Argentina's descent into a hyperinflationary basket case, with a crashing currency and loss of outside funding was relatively moderate and controlled. All this is about to change. Today, in a futile attempt to halt inflation, the government of Cristina Kirchner announced a two-month price freeze on supermarket products. The price freeze applies to every product in all of the nation’s largest supermarkets — a group including Walmart, Carrefour, Coto, Jumbo, Disco and other large chains. The companies’ trade group, representing 70 percent of the Argentine supermarket sector, reached the accord with Commerce Secretary Guillermo Moreno, the government’s news agency Telam reported. As AP reports, "The commerce ministry wants consumers to keep receipts and complain to a hotline about any price hikes they see before April 1."

Perhaps they will. What consumers will certainly do is scramble into local stores to take advantage of artificially-controlled prices knowing very well they have two short months to stock up on perishable goods at today's prices, before the country's inflation comes soaring back, only this time many of the local stores will not be around as their profit margins implode and as owners, especially of foreign-based chains, make the prudent decision to get out of Dodge while the getting's good and before the next steps, including such measures as nationalization, in the escalation into a full out hyperinflationary collapse, are taken by Argentina's female ruler

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-04...os-follow.

Post: #11

Lots of interesting and sane input here. My 2 cents.

Populist-clepto-pseudo-socialist governments are specialized in bankrupting their respective countries (venezuela & co). If that doesn't change in Argentina I foresee a lot of trouble still lying ahead.

For me, one of the striking features of Argentina is their love of messianic leaders and governments. "The princess of the poor", "The Father of the Nation", "The National Widow" and other forms of idolatry-marketing seem to enjoy a strong, consistent following in their tradition.

That won't help any rational debate for sure, although it makes Argentina, along with its dramatic passions and its intensely theatrical manifestations, a very interesting place from a cultural perspective.

One of their main strengths, however, which is the export of valuable agricultural and primary commodities, is still largely there. As long as they don't fuck up that there is still hope.

Post: #12

Quote:Where's Argentina headed now?

OP, the answer is easy, down the drain.

Cristina Fernandez de Kirchnner populist goverment have some blinders in their head, and dont see (or want to see) the growing inflation and social unrest, unrest that gets worse and worse with their hegemonic actitude in all the levels of the State and Society. The Escrache, a kind of protest were you arras someone you dont like politically (a facist method, used by CFK and her husband) is now used against them and their minions. I dont see anything serious like a civil war, but there is a lot of polarization around here.

Post: #13

Interesting info on this thread regarding Argentina.

I wonder if there will be a huge crash of the economy?

Argentina could be a cheap location to visit post-crash.

Post: #14

i have shares in a mining company that operates out of brazil and argentina. all shareholders are worried about what argentina might do with the company's mine. on one hand, it gets paid for mined gold and silver is USD and it has the very strong support of the province. if it were seized, it would cost the govt more in lost taxes and profitability. on the other hand, no one has any idea what the govt will do as the nationalisation of repsol shows. the govt could add on various crippling taxes, it could do something really illogical, who knows.

Post: #15

Dont worry about that babababalot. Mining interest are very good friends with Cristina, and they are not bothered...yet.

Post: #16

Quote:Where's Argentina headed now?

p00n paradise ?

Post: #17

For Argentines, Cristina is a disaster as all extreme socialists are. Problem for Argentina is they worship the Perons and they can't move forward until they are repudiated. Same thing for Americans and FDR.

For us, this can only be good news.

Post: #18

(02-07-2013 04:58 PM)GameTheory Wrote:  

Quote:Where's Argentina headed now?

p00n paradise ?

Or Mexico? Poosy paradise too dangerous to visit because it's almost a failed state.

Post: #19

met some venezuelan chicas far, far from home the other night. asked them what they thought about hugo chavez. 'that's why we're here and not there' one of them replied. 'guy is crazy'. i asked about argentina. 'they love him over there. their president she's crazy too'.

these girls were alright. knew what was going on.

Post: #20

Most of the Lef-Wing zombies loves Chavez, Most of population either didnt care, or despise the guy.

Post: #21

(02-08-2013 12:28 PM)Mekorig Wrote:  Most of the Lef-Wing zombies loves Chavez, Most of population either didnt care, or despise the guy.

Argentina is headed to this: The country will lose its european heritage. Hordes of indians from bolivia, peru, paraguay, asians from corea and china, blacks from africa will fuck the white argentinean females and argentina will become another mestizo country like the rest of latin america..

Post: #22

Dont think so Scarecr0w. People is very upset with all this populist shits, and Cristina is not evita, she will loose this year Legislative elections, and her power base will began to crumble. As per the inmigrant hordes, now that the economic situation is not so good, paraguayans, bolivians and peruvians tend to migrate to other places, like Brasil or Chile. Funny thing, there is an small yet steady flow of spaniards (and other europeans) coming to live here in Argentina.

Post: #23

Scarecrow: 7 day ban for race trolling

Post: #24

(02-08-2013 12:33 PM)Scarecr0w Wrote:  

(02-08-2013 12:28 PM)Mekorig Wrote:  Most of the Lef-Wing zombies loves Chavez, Most of population either didnt care, or despise the guy.

Argentina is headed to this: The country will lose its european heritage. Hordes of indians from bolivia, peru, paraguay, asians from corea and china, blacks from africa will fuck the white argentinean females and argentina will become another mestizo country like the rest of latin america..

Simon bolivar would probably have agreed with you. haha.

Post: #25

(02-08-2013 06:58 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

(02-07-2013 04:58 PM)GameTheory Wrote:  

Quote:Where's Argentina headed now?

p00n paradise ?

Or Mexico? Poosy paradise too dangerous to visit because it's almost a failed state.

but the prob w/ MEX is that drugs flow through it (north) heading for USA with assault rifles going south to MEX.
not a prob with ARG