Post: #51

Tax evasion is a motivation in Greece.If you try to restrict tax evasion,economic activity declines(meaning the people do not work without motivation).Simple Ottoman economics the Westerners tend to ignore.

Post: #52

Obviously tax evasion doesn't work combined with creating a welfare state and hiding the tax evasion numbers (among others) from the books for almost a decade.

Same as it doesn't help that Italy has large spread corruption too, Spain has so much money tied up in property that no one wants to have, and Portugal has been poor for a long time already. And of course for each country there are more reasons why shit is hitting the fan now. Some cultural, some economic, some a combination. And don't count out history.

Fact is that the entirity of the EU wasn't ready for a shared currency yet. A currency which is a logical consequence of a shared political government. Something which is even further from being realized, but the EU parlement is stubborn and keeps pushing for political unification (wouldn't you be if your ezmoney, that you know is based on flighty ideals and hot air, is about to disappear). The mostly German dream (especially the former chancellor Kohl pushed tremendously for unification and the introduction of the Euro) of a final atonement for WW2 by peacefully unifying Europe and bringing everlasting peace is coming to an end as it was too premature. Somewhere it is ironic that what we thought was over almost exactly 100 years ago (World War 1 and the final tensions leftover from the 1700-1800's) is only wrapping up just now by (presumably) creating one last shockwave of (financial) destruction over the European continent. The so celebrated last 70 years of peace might have turned out to be a false peace. Even though we have our glorious EU, nation states still do not trust eachother because still they are so different.

The situation is a dire one, mostly for the debt ridden countries in the south of Europe, but also for the northern countries that did not dare to cut their losses when they should have 3 years ago. Now everyone is in over their head. Where will this go? No one knows, but time will tell.

Post: #53

(11-20-2012 11:53 AM)Greek kamaki Wrote:  Tax evasion is a motivation in Greece.If you try to restrict tax evasion,economic activity declines(meaning the people do not work without motivation).Simple Ottoman economics the Westerners tend to ignore.

This is true Kamaki, but you can't have a welfare state if your government doesnt make any income in tax.

Post: #54

In Greece the circle is as follows:
1.Introduction of euro leads to ridiculous low interest rates in Greek bonds
2.Greek government borrows massively and spends the money on a.personal property increase of government members,b.property increase of their friends(by contracts etc),c.increase of salaries(this is key point for the elites to be able to get foreign borrowed cash they should give lots of cash to their friends and the folk in order to be accepted-that is why had for example 200000 fake blinds in Greece who got pensions as blind or the largest number of incompetent(eg 50% of population in some regions etc)
3.The private sector develops dependant on the state loans in the sense that the civil servants who get salary increases spend their incomes on consuming
4.The government feels that no matter the level of incompetence is they can put any person they favor in any position they wish since the growth and the inflow of money is supposed to continue forever(they suppose they are safe by having joined the euro).
Here is a big mistake of the economists.They thought that by combining incompetent sectors and incompetent people they would get zero risk since everything was guaranteed by the danger of bilateral collapse(a massive eurozone collapse would never be permitted so they felt free to do whatever they wished with supposedely no danger.In fact by these methods they became even more vulnerable).

So what happens:
1.The interest rates go to sky high levels when there is estimation Greece can no longer pay its debts.
2.The flow of money stops and the money gets out of Greece to northern safer countries.
3.The whole political system gets exposed as being corrupted and unreliable.The social benefits(to fake blinds etc) get cut off.People lose trust to the government and the political system as a whole.
4.By pressure of the Germans (as a prerequisite of bail out) the salaries and pensions get considerably decreased
5.Since there is no extra income by the civil servants they do not have money to spend on shops like in the past so the private sector contracts and the unemployment increases(it reaches 50% for the private sector)

More important:
6.The incompetent people having taken their permanent positions before by the government while it was thought this would not have consequences remain in position because it is not possible to be removed legally.They clearly cannot comprehend the situation.The performance as a whole is decreased as more and more of them got added and the older more competent ones gradually get pensions.This means that the problems has become structural so the situation is irreversible.
7.The people as a whole do not respond well to austerity measures.The northern protestants thought the Greeks would respond like Westerners that is by facing their salaries cut off they would increase their work load.Opposite to that the Greeks respond to the measures as Balkan herds and they reduce their workload when their salaries get reduced.Moreover the reduction of work is more than the reduction in salary.This has a result a serious decrease in performance.
The above decrease in performance means that every forecast about Greek economy during the first bail out fails.The Westerners had not estimated:
1.The gradual decrease in performance by the increased number of incompetent servants put there during the times of growth.This decrease was accelerated year by year
2.The decrease in performance by people who saw their salaries cut off(Balkan reaction).
So they made very foreseeably totally wrong estimations(they had estimated increase of GDP by 2011 already or a debt reduced to 120% of GDP by 2012 which has in fact now increased to 190% of GDP).

So everyone is right:
1.The elites say it is mainly fault of the IMF and the ECB who failed to make right estimations
2.The IMF says it is fault of the Germans(they refuse to let the ECB print money to give to indebted states and they refuse haircut of the state given loans)
3.The Germans blame the Greeks(as incompetent,corrupted,lazy)
4.The incompetent Greek civil servants put there during growth blame the rest of civil servants for not increasing their performance to compensate.They also blame the private sector for lack of innovation and incapability of producing worthy products for exports/
5.The competent civil servants blame the state which reduced their salaries regardless of any competence or merit thus making them indifferent
6.The communists blame the market(crisis is considered to be inherent in capitalism,it is just a matter of time when it appears)
7.The capitalists blame the leftist state in Greece(state is expensive,state is the source of every problem)
8.The nationalists blame the slave to foreign interests government and the immigrants who have come in millions,taken jobs gtom Greeks who remain unemployed and destroying the social strcuture and natinal cohesion by bringing foreign elements
9.The internationalists blame the nationalists for creating tension and hindering the economy
10.The Europhiles blame the Eurosceptics for sabotage and suspicious motivations(''they want the drachma back in order to be able to buy all property and commodities in Greece with the euros they exported to Swiss banks'')
11.The Eurosceptics blame the euro for everything(it has increased prices of goods and labor costs thus making economy uncompetitive.It cannot be sustained without a central European government and a central European economic policy and unity of banking system-relative disadvantages of EU to the US)
12.The drachmophils blame the euro(with a devaluation of drachma we would become competitive in one night-people do not accept internal devaluation,reduction of salaries as they accept currency devaluation)
13.The conspiracy theorists blame the Germans,the Jews or the big corporations for having conceived a mega plan for enslaving Greece(what is more many people have adopted the conspiracy theories)
14.The liberalists blame the state for employing so many civil servants while the private sector and the exports are in crisis
15.The statephils blame the businessmen and free traders who avoid paying taxes

What is more they talk and talk and talk and what they mostly get is a sea of arguments without any clear objective.The only one who has clear picture of the situation is Dr Schauble and he will follow his plan till the end.

Post: #55

(11-20-2012 09:33 AM)Greek kamaki Wrote:  What I wrote was about the situation 5 monts ago when the Greek ruling class had a last chance to reverse the situation.Now they are doomed for sure they have no chance.The conflict between Germany and IMF regarded whether Greece should declare bankruptcy now after US elections or it should be delayed till after German elections.

OK, I have to give you credit because you are describing a fairly specific time frame.

And I love the analysis of blaming-- the fascinating thing is that all these people think they are right!!

However, doomsayers always resort to this "push back" tactic in their discussions. "Oh, it didn't happen yet, but it still will..."

Among the vague predictions time frames made here, that can't be wrong so they can't really be right either:

"wrapping up now", "shit is hitting the fan", "about to disappear", "one last shockwave", "situation is a dire one",

But what is "doomed"? Everyone is doomed. In the broad sense, in the long term, we are all dead. Saying this adds no value without specifics.

They've already restructured debt by borrowing more which is sort of like bankruptcy in USA terms.

When? And what, specifically, in physically observable terms, will happen?

So what, in observable terms we can look for in a newspaper and say "You were right" or "you missed" about your prediction.

1) When the country re-issues a new Drachma?
2) When more than 100 people are killed in a month in riots? ( Of course I hope this will not happen, I am just trying to pin down what is the "doomed" people always discuss)

What exactly, observably, mutually confirmably will happen to show you are right? Or will NOT happen, and show you were wrong?

Post: #56

I will tell you some examples to show how complicated things are and how massively they got out in their estimations:
1.Greece was the only country in history to do a 80% restructure of debt in 2011 after which it debt was increased and not decreased!(how is it possible to explain that)
2.Greece is the first country in the world which needs a second massive haircut in the same year!
3.Greece has taken the biggest bail out from any other country in the world(even bigger than the Marshall plan in 1947-1950)
4.Despite that huge bail out the situation deteriorates rapidly instead of improving
5.The Germans and the IMF have repeatedly failed to reach any sort of agreement for absolute solution to the Greek problem.
All these controversies show that there is sth not mentioned which causes the development and the surprises.So many controversies cannot be explained.It is what I call the devil's economics.

Post: #57

(11-20-2012 04:28 PM)deepcov3r Wrote:  

(11-20-2012 09:33 AM)Greek kamaki Wrote:  What I wrote was about the situation 5 monts ago when the Greek ruling class had a last chance to reverse the situation.Now they are doomed for sure they have no chance.The conflict between Germany and IMF regarded whether Greece should declare bankruptcy now after US elections or it should be delayed till after German elections.

OK, I have to give you credit because you are describing a fairly specific time frame.

And I love the analysis of blaming-- the fascinating thing is that all these people think they are right!!

However, doomsayers always resort to this "push back" tactic in their discussions. "Oh, it didn't happen yet, but it still will..."

Among the vague predictions time frames made here, that can't be wrong so they can't really be right either:

"wrapping up now", "shit is hitting the fan", "about to disappear", "one last shockwave", "situation is a dire one",

But what is "doomed"? Everyone is doomed. In the broad sense, in the long term, we are all dead. Saying this adds no value without specifics.

They've already restructured debt by borrowing more which is sort of like bankruptcy in USA terms.

When? And what, specifically, in physically observable terms, will happen?

So what, in observable terms we can look for in a newspaper and say "You were right" or "you missed" about your prediction.

1) When the country re-issues a new Drachma?
2) When more than 100 people are killed in a month in riots? ( Of course I hope this will not happen, I am just trying to pin down what is the "doomed" people always discuss)

What exactly, observably, mutually confirmably will happen to show you are right? Or will NOT happen, and show you were wrong?

These are very good questions.The answers depend completely on German attitude and Germans keep their cards closed.We can only make assumptions of what is being discussed behind closed doors.They also have very good information about Balkans(traditionally).
So the ruling class of Greece after its complete failure and facing the real danger of overthrowal(aka Libya,Egypt etc) has been left with two options both very bad:
1.Handing all power to Germans-Greece becoming an EU protectorate or more accurately a German protectorate
2.Being replaced by the extremist nationalists of Golden Dawn.Golden Dawn can solve the economic problem but it will impose dictatorship,censorship with mass imprisonments of politicians.It will throw out all immigrants and turn Greece to a state more like Turkey with alliances to Russia rather than the West.

Between the aforementioned alternatives it is clear that the ruling class has already decided to handle all power to Germans.Germans will govern Greece directly by delegates in key positions.All the money collected by taxes in Greece will go to a bank account controlled by Germans who will decide how to use it(most will be spent on securing debt interests pay).
Secretly it is very likely that they have conceeded to all the above and it is matter of time before everything gets implemented and Greece becomes a German protectorate.(there are actually people in Greece who greet this development saying Germans will make us better and they know how to organize and govern,they are fair etc).
So Greece has already lost its national independance as Merkel has already said(heavily indebted states cannot keep their national independance intact).

Of course people will react to German control,I predict the nationalists to give some battles.
The communists will also try to get advantage of and they will reign for a short period of time to cause total collapse and give opportunity to Germans to impose absolute control.

So to answer your questions:
1.The new drachma will be issued one month after the German elections
2.People will be killed in riots in one year or maybe in 1-2 years.(it has to do with how fast the power of nationalists increases now they stand at 15%,they got 7% in elections 5 months ago,these guys are basically neonazis,they have no hesitation to use force and they use the surprise element).

Post: #58

(11-20-2012 04:21 PM)Greek kamaki Wrote:  In Greece the circle is as follows:
1.Introduction of euro leads to ridiculous low interest rates in Greek bonds
2.Greek government borrows massively and spends the money on a.personal property increase of government members,b.property increase of their friends(by contracts etc),c.increase of salaries(this is key point for the elites to be able to get foreign borrowed cash they should give lots of cash to their friends and the folk in order to be accepted-that is why had for example 200000 fake blinds in Greece who got pensions as blind or the largest number of incompetent(eg 50% of population in some regions etc)
3.The private sector develops dependant on the state loans in the sense that the civil servants who get salary increases spend their incomes on consuming
4.The government feels that no matter the level of incompetence is they can put any person they favor in any position they wish since the growth and the inflow of money is supposed to continue forever(they suppose they are safe by having joined the euro).
Here is a big mistake of the economists.They thought that by combining incompetent sectors and incompetent people they would get zero risk since everything was guaranteed by the danger of bilateral collapse(a massive eurozone collapse would never be permitted so they felt free to do whatever they wished with supposedely no danger.In fact by these methods they became even more vulnerable).

So what happens:
1.The interest rates go to sky high levels when there is estimation Greece can no longer pay its debts.
2.The flow of money stops and the money gets out of Greece to northern safer countries.
3.The whole political system gets exposed as being corrupted and unreliable.The social benefits(to fake blinds etc) get cut off.People lose trust to the government and the political system as a whole.
4.By pressure of the Germans (as a prerequisite of bail out) the salaries and pensions get considerably decreased
5.Since there is no extra income by the civil servants they do not have money to spend on shops like in the past so the private sector contracts and the unemployment increases(it reaches 50% for the private sector)

More important:
6.The incompetent people having taken their permanent positions before by the government while it was thought this would not have consequences remain in position because it is not possible to be removed legally.They clearly cannot comprehend the situation.The performance as a whole is decreased as more and more of them got added and the older more competent ones gradually get pensions.This means that the problems has become structural so the situation is irreversible.
7.The people as a whole do not respond well to austerity measures.The northern protestants thought the Greeks would respond like Westerners that is by facing their salaries cut off they would increase their work load.Opposite to that the Greeks respond to the measures as Balkan herds and they reduce their workload when their salaries get reduced.Moreover the reduction of work is more than the reduction in salary.This has a result a serious decrease in performance.
The above decrease in performance means that every forecast about Greek economy during the first bail out fails.The Westerners had not estimated:
1.The gradual decrease in performance by the increased number of incompetent servants put there during the times of growth.This decrease was accelerated year by year
2.The decrease in performance by people who saw their salaries cut off(Balkan reaction).
So they made very foreseeably totally wrong estimations(they had estimated increase of GDP by 2011 already or a debt reduced to 120% of GDP by 2012 which has in fact now increased to 190% of GDP).

So everyone is right:
1.The elites say it is mainly fault of the IMF and the ECB who failed to make right estimations
2.The IMF says it is fault of the Germans(they refuse to let the ECB print money to give to indebted states and they refuse haircut of the state given loans)
3.The Germans blame the Greeks(as incompetent,corrupted,lazy)
4.The incompetent Greek civil servants put there during growth blame the rest of civil servants for not increasing their performance to compensate.They also blame the private sector for lack of innovation and incapability of producing worthy products for exports/
5.The competent civil servants blame the state which reduced their salaries regardless of any competence or merit thus making them indifferent
6.The communists blame the market(crisis is considered to be inherent in capitalism,it is just a matter of time when it appears)
7.The capitalists blame the leftist state in Greece(state is expensive,state is the source of every problem)
8.The nationalists blame the slave to foreign interests government
9.The internationalists blame the nationalists for creating tension and hindering the economy
10.The Europhiles blame the Eurosceptics for sabotage and suspicious motivations(''they want the drachma back in order to be able to buy all property and commodities in Greece with the euros they exported to Swiss banks'')
11.The Eurosceptics blame the euro for everything(it has increased prices of goods and labor costs thus making economy uncompetitive.It cannot be sustained without a central European government and a central European economic policy and unity of banking system-relative disadvantages of EU to the US)
12.The drachmophils blame the euro(with a devaluation of drachma we would become competitive in one night-people do not accept internal devaluation,reduction of salaries as they accept currency devaluation)
13.The conspiracy theorists blame the Germans,the Jews or the big corporations for having conceived a mega plan for enslaving Greece(what is more many people have adopted the conspiracy theories)
14.The liberalists blame the state for employing so many civil servants while the private sector and the exports are in crisis
15.The statephils blame the businessmen and free traders who avoid paying taxes

What is more they talk and talk and talk and what they mostly get is a sea of arguments without any clear objective.The only one who has clear picture of the situation is Dr Schauble and he will follow his plan till the end.

+1 for awesome breakdown !!!

Post: #59

The unsolved enigmas or false dilemmas:
1.Euro or drachma?If we keep the euro we remain uncompetitive in constant misery status and constant need for foreign aid.If we adopt the drachma we face imminent collapse as drachma will be devalued at least 300% in the first day of introduction and as a result salaries,bank deposits and properties will be reduced by the same amount.We will not have enough euro to repay the debts and we will not have euro to buy expensive machinery to make us competitive.
2.To be bailed out or not to be bailed out?If we get bailed out,we have to concede to austerity measures which contract economy even further.We accumulate debt and remain enslaved forever.If we refuse to be bailed out we find ourselves without cash to pay wages,pensions etc.
3.Agree with the Germans or oppose the Germans?If we agree with them,they take us for granted thus imposing even more intolerable measures and beneficial for them.If we oppose them we risk to lose their support with collapse as a result.

Generally it is all about balance.The elites have lost the balance and the Germans press ruthlessly.They are so to say with a pistole on their heads constantly and have to take fast decisions under severe pressure thus being risking continuous mistakes.The Germans on the other hand give themselves the comfort of time.

Post: #60

(11-20-2012 04:28 PM)deepcov3r Wrote:  

(11-20-2012 09:33 AM)Greek kamaki Wrote:  What I wrote was about the situation 5 monts ago when the Greek ruling class had a last chance to reverse the situation.Now they are doomed for sure they have no chance.The conflict between Germany and IMF regarded whether Greece should declare bankruptcy now after US elections or it should be delayed till after German elections.

OK, I have to give you credit because you are describing a fairly specific time frame.

And I love the analysis of blaming-- the fascinating thing is that all these people think they are right!!

However, doomsayers always resort to this "push back" tactic in their discussions. "Oh, it didn't happen yet, but it still will..."

Among the vague predictions time frames made here, that can't be wrong so they can't really be right either:

"wrapping up now", "shit is hitting the fan", "about to disappear", "one last shockwave", "situation is a dire one",

But what is "doomed"? Everyone is doomed. In the broad sense, in the long term, we are all dead. Saying this adds no value without specifics.

They've already restructured debt by borrowing more which is sort of like bankruptcy in USA terms.

When? And what, specifically, in physically observable terms, will happen?

So what, in observable terms we can look for in a newspaper and say "You were right" or "you missed" about your prediction.

1) When the country re-issues a new Drachma?
2) When more than 100 people are killed in a month in riots? ( Of course I hope this will not happen, I am just trying to pin down what is the "doomed" people always discuss)

What exactly, observably, mutually confirmably will happen to show you are right? Or will NOT happen, and show you were wrong?

Right now the ministers of finance of the euro nations are having a meeting on the latest Trojka report. The most likely outcome, one that the IMF is pushing for and the northern European countries do not want, is that part of the Greek debt will be cut. The effect of this will be that money disappears from the system and that the economic recesion all across Europe will continue/get deeper, but Greece might be able to stay in the Euro. This recesion might also spread to outside Europe. In Europe the effect will be that Spain/Italy/Portugal/Ireland will have even more trouble reducing their budget deficit. That is what currently is happening. And most economists agree that it is the best solution for the current situation.

If Greece goes bankrupt, the recession will be deeper and it's a wait and see game if Italy/Spain/Portugal/Ireland can keep their pants up. Also France will go into a deep recession, as their economy is marginally better than that of the PIIGS countries.

Those will be the measurable effects for the short future: 1-2-3 years. With the recession lasting till the end of this decade or into the 2020's.

An economic recession is not a bad thing per se. It's just a 'natural' way for the system to self correct the overspending that has been happening over the last 20-30 years and it creates large business opportunities for starters. The problem for Europe, however, is that the recession will probably be so deep that for most nations the welfare system, which is so integrated into society, will be non sustainable. That is a huge culture shock and 'doomsday' scenario for the Northern European countries. Especially if your pension becomes worthless or disappears (people have been saving for that for 40+ years and this money is involved in all those bonds and securities), and since the babyboom generation is about to retire that are a lot of people.

Whatever happens in the populace per country is not to say beyond speculation.

Post: #61

@Greek Kamaki

Those are some good points and a nice breakdown of what is currently happening in Greece.
I think your focus on the Germans is a bit unfair though. Although I can understand that is how the Greek population understands the situation, with Germany being the strongest economy in Europe with the largest weight to throw around.

All of the Northern European countries, including France, but mostly Germany, The Netherlands and Finland, do not want to cut the Greek debt. This is mostly because these countries own much of the Greek debt and stand to lose a lot of money, especially Germany. So it the least in their favour if Greece gets a cut, or even worse goes bankrupt.

Another problem is that amongst the population of the Northern European countries the notion of 'those lazy Southern Europeans better repay every cent of our hard earned money we borrow them with interest' is becoming stronger by the day. So the politicians also have to appease their voters. And the media and indecisiveness of the politicians is telling them that they will not get their money back. Hence, the people are becoming disgruntled.

This is also partly where my earlier reference to European history and its tensions that stem from the 1700-1800's comes from. Due to all the cultural differences, which are normal for Europe, there are still tensions when it comes to these (financial) matters that will not allow for a unified Europe. These tensions used to cause war. Regularly. And that is partly why many people are also afraid of such a 'doom' scenario. WW3.

Post: #62

The Germans and the French have spent this bailout money in Greece mostly in order to gain time and create a firewall so they will not be afflicted severely in case of Greek bankruptcy.They want to keep the consequences within limits.By the time the German middle class estimates that keeping Greece in euro is more costly than letting Greece collapse they will let Greece collapse.They estimate this point using complex mathematical tools.Some Germans already believe that the point has come but the experts estimate that still a Grexit is more costly than an aid to keep Greece in eurozone though by a narrow margin(cost of Grexit=1 trillion euro,cost of keeping Greece in eurozone=300+100-200 billion euro).
What cannot be accurately estimated is the collateral damage to Spain,Italy in case of Greek exit.The reason is that Germans do not trust the numbers provided by Italians(which show there is no danger) and their position is difficult since they cannot say to Modi's face they do not trust him.(he is advertised as reliable etc and serves the purpose of stability).

Post: #63

(11-20-2012 05:45 PM)Greek kamaki Wrote:  The Germans and the French have spent this bailout money in Greece mostly in order to create a firewall so they will not be afflicted severely in case of Greek bankruptcy.They want to keep the consequences within limits.By the time the German middle class estimates that keeping Greece in euro is more costly than letting Greece collapse they will let Greece collapse.They estimate this point using complex mathematical tools.Some Germans already believe that the point has come but the experts estimate that still a Grexit is more costly than an aid to keep Greece in eurozone though by a narrow margin(cost if Grexit=1 trillion euro,cost of keeping Greece in eurozone=300+100-200 billion euro).

do u actually live in greece?

Post: #64

(11-20-2012 05:42 PM)Grayham Wrote:  @Greek Kamaki

Those are some good points and a nice breakdown of what is currently happening in Greece.
I think your focus on the Germans is a bit unfair though. Although I can understand that is how the Greek population understands the situation, with Germany being the strongest economy in Europe with the largest weight to throw around.

All of the Northern European countries, including France, but mostly Germany, The Netherlands and Finland, do not want to cut the Greek debt. This is mostly because these countries own much of the Greek debt and stand to lose a lot of money, especially Germany. So it the least in their favour if Greece gets a cut, or even worse goes bankrupt.

Another problem is that amongst the population of the Northern European countries the notion of 'those lazy Southern Europeans better repay every cent of our hard earned money we borrow them with interest' is becoming stronger by the day. So the politicians also have to appease their voters. And the media and indecisiveness of the politicians is telling them that they will not get their money back. Hence, the people are becoming disgruntled.

This is also partly where my earlier reference to European history and its tensions that stem from the 1700-1800's comes from. Due to all the cultural differences, which are normal for Europe, there are still tensions when it comes to these (financial) matters that will not allow for a unified Europe. These tensions used to cause war. Regularly. And that is partly why many people are also afraid of such a 'doom' scenario. WW3.

The Germans play serious ball in this crisis.They saw a huge chance to get benefited and strenthen their position to the point of becoming Caesars in a unified Europe.You already saw what happened to the French rating now when Holland tried for a while to doubt German policy while his predecessor Sarkozy agreed in everything with Merkel.(and was rewarded for that)
The Germans simply use the Finns and Dutch as the bad cops in order to make themselves appear more moderate(good cops).For example ''look at what the Finns want,we want less from you.(of course they have come in communication with Finns before that).All this is known of course.The problem is that southern countries cannot form a similar front as Northerners because of incompetence,fear and some conflicting interests and of course the direct intervention of Northerners who do not wish a southern axis to develop(all regulations are discussed separetly with interested parts not as a package.).That is why you see a different package for Spain,a different for Portugal and another one for Greece.(other terms).
Northenerns view each case as separate and impose their terms on each nation separately.

Post: #65

The confusion of denials and red lines.The main denials in the centre of this crisis are:
1.Denial of young generation to pay for the debts accumulated by former generations.This is reflected in passive resistance and lower performance(so the elder get less pensions since the pensions are calculated as a part of GDP which goes down)
2.Denial of old guard to resign from their priviledges secured in former times in different terms and as a result of supposedely social struggles
3.Denial of Balkan mentality folks in central positions to europeanize.They promote,continue and expand the Ottoman ways of administration(corruption,favoritism,nepotism)
4.Denial of Westerners to accept the Balkan nature of Greece and take the Ottoman ways into account(they view Greece with western hypocrisy as a nation similar to theirs and expect the same performance and reactions,the same appliance of law etc although they know this is not true)
5.Denial of high income folks used to a luxury lifestyle to abandon it.So the contrast and provocaton to the poor masses becomes more and more obvious and the rage increases.(the upper class just send the money abroad to avoid a devaluation of their assets by drachma hoping to bring them back when property prices fall).

The results of the denials:
1.Common folks thinking:Why should I contribute to the saviour of the country since the rich ones are engaged in tax evasion and keep their rights intact?
2.Rich thinking:Why should I stay and keep my property in a country in the danger of collapse and with a future destabilization very likely?
3.General consesus:Why should I be affected by crisis and increase my performance when the guys responsible for that(political and business status quo) have not been punished for their actions having led to crisis?(false,cooked logistical data,excess spending by them and their friends,enrichment by big army contracts etc).
Actually now the folks want heads on table.As long as the ruling class is not in place to deliver(big heads on table),the people tend to resort to extremists who promise exactly that(we will build new prisons to imprison all the responsible for the crisis,we will reintroduce the death penalty to execute the ones who stole state money etc).People applaud greatly the idea of imprisonment,executions and violence.As long as violence from the left increases,violence from the right increases as well.
The elites are with their backs on the wall and the Germans make the situation more and more suffocating as they keep a pistole on their heads constantly(if you refuse to take our orders we will pull the plug of finance and you will collapse).The Germans think that by this method the constant blackmail they serve their interests while the Greek elites warn them that the limits of tolerance in Greece have already been surpassed and a social breakdown is imminent.The Germans on the other hand estimate the situation is still relatively stable in Greece and they can continue their pressure till Greece gets really to the bottom of the barrel and reaches its limits.

Post: #66

(11-20-2012 04:28 PM)deepcov3r Wrote:  

(11-20-2012 09:33 AM)Greek kamaki Wrote:  So what, in observable terms we can look for in a newspaper and say "You were right" or "you missed" about your prediction.



What exactly, observably, mutually confirmably will happen to show you are right? Or will NOT happen, and show you were wrong?

...recession will be deeper and it's a wait and see game........France will go into a deep recession,...

....measurable effects for the short future: 1-2-3 years. With the recession lasting till the end of this decade or into the 2020's.

Not trying to be argumentative but "deeper" is not at all specific.

Now if you say "Unemployment will be more than 50% by Jan 2014 in Spain, we've got a testable assertion.

Post: #67

My predictions:
1.Greek GDP/capita in the end of 2013 to Slovak levels(PPP=23500$)(now at 25000$)
2.Unemployment in Greece 30% in 2013(now at 25%)
3.6-7% recession(7% in 2012)
4.Budget deficit at 7 billion euro(now at 2 billion)
5.Debt/GDP=200%(now at 190%)

For me it is quite obvious what happens.The problem is that the mainstream refuses to see or aknowledge the reality.To put it differently they refuse to listen to us.They always refused.Even when the whole Athens burns down they refuse to listen.It is like ''I do not accept what you are telling me and you will never manage to convince me,case closed.''

Post: #68

The ways Germans use Greece:
1.As an experimental field for austerity measures which are supposed to strengthen EU economy as a whole
2.To see how far they can get with intervention and appliance of economic policy and then try the same in other countries(to judge the level of population resistance and the strength of the local elites)
3.To give a negative exemplar as a fearsome ending to other countries so they will avoid asking for bail outs(eg if you dare to ask us for more money you will end like Greece,do you want that?)
4.To gather all the money invested to the South in previous years so they will have a cheap finance for the German industry(investors are so afraid they prefer to buy German bonds although they get zero interest or even negative interest instead of risking buying Italian or Spanish bonds despite the latter giving over 7% interest)
5.To ask a constant pressure on the Anglosaxon axis on the possibility of collapse if they continue to force newly printed dollars to get bought when ECB follows antiinflation policy refusing to print new euros.The real motivation is to slow down the global economy as a whole so that Germany will come out stronger since they will remain stable while the rest will suffer recession.
6.They hope to achieve decreases in global speculation activities against euro and crash the speculators who bet on EU dissolution and collapse
7.They want to keep other EU members like France under fear what will may happen to them if they lose the German support and their vulnerabilities get exposed as they are
8.What Germans really want to do is a deflation of the global economy to achieve natural levels.An axis will be formed between Germany as a means for production producer-Russia as a raw material producer and China as a consumerist goods producer.That is Russia will sell the raw material to Germany to build machinery to sell it to China so that the latter produces competitive goods and sells them to the US and global market achieving even more dependance of the rest on them.

Since Germans use a lot of bluff and real blackmail depending on their opponents weaknesses(which they know inside out) they achieve their purposes gradually.Greece has become a battlefield for them and it will suffer the fate of all battlefields.

Relative advantages of Germany:Strongest export country,keeping wages artificially lower than suggested in order to achieve increased competitiveness compared to southern European countries
Advantages of Russia:Big raw material producer
Advantages of China:Central government pressing wages down to keep the products of the country competitive.Currency connected artificially to dollar to be independant of dollar fluctuations regarding trade with the US.Also strengthened by the weakness of dollar
Advantages of the US:Dollar connected to oil,meaning no matter how many dollars they print they get value out of paper since they exchange them with oil.All their debt is in dollars which they print.Also big military power which can cause destabilization and severe consequences to any country not following its orders

Post: #69

The mistake with the Euro was a single currency based on the power of the German economy which is the biggest contributer into the EU (in total would have been the UK if not for the special rebate, Denmark being the larget as a % of GDP).

The ideal system would have been two euro currencies, one for the teutonics and one for the southern states. Spain, Greece, Italy and even Ireland would have fared well with their own Euro2 currency, whilst Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Austria should have had the Euro. There's no benefit now for this to happen, the breakup of the eurozone would be deadly for all involved.

Post: #70

(11-21-2012 03:48 AM)deepcov3r Wrote:  

(11-20-2012 04:28 PM)deepcov3r Wrote:  

(11-20-2012 09:33 AM)Greek kamaki Wrote:  So what, in observable terms we can look for in a newspaper and say "You were right" or "you missed" about your prediction.



What exactly, observably, mutually confirmably will happen to show you are right? Or will NOT happen, and show you were wrong?

...recession will be deeper and it's a wait and see game........France will go into a deep recession,...

....measurable effects for the short future: 1-2-3 years. With the recession lasting till the end of this decade or into the 2020's.

Not trying to be argumentative but "deeper" is not at all specific.

Now if you say "Unemployment will be more than 50% by Jan 2014 in Spain, we've got a testable assertion.

Your point is true, 'deeper' is not specific at all. But one can not be specific when it comes to these kind of issues. Only a direction can be predicted, and whether that ends up as only -1% or -2% or total collapse is all on the same playing field.

No economist will even consider touching upon specifiying an unemployment percentage or anything else for the future apart from general projections and directions, such is the minefield and unpredictability of the situation.

On a different note, talks failed last night at around 5am. More on Monday.

Post: #71

This is an example of why (specific) predictions in this situation are very hard to make:


(I know the source says zerohedge, but only for the OOPS edit, the actual graph is from the Trojka report)

And this is also the reason why negotiations are at such an impasse right now. Because predictions have proven to be wrong for the past couple of years; how do you guarantee that the current agreement won't follow this trend, and how do you guarantee that the future agreements will improve or break the trend?

Post: #72

Exactly.They are totally unable to predict the Greek GDP decline rate or the GDP/debt growth rate because they do not use the right formulas taking important factors into account.
They are 100% based on empirical data which are:
1.Old or
2.Too recent or
3.Represent average of experiences of countries very different to Greece where IMF measures were also taken.
Greek economists are even worse(mass incompetence).Only the Germans have become realists by continuous exposure(trial and error) and make some right estimations(hidden in their drawyers they do not want to reveal their tools).

For example the IMF experts have estimated the Greek debt as non sustainable and press for haircut.The Germans in order to avoid to lose the money they gave for the first bail out(120 billion in total by EU which the IMF wants to restructure) claim the Greek debt is sustainable.So what happens?
First possibility:The Germans know the Greek debt is non sustainable but press the economists to cook the evidence so they can avoid haircut till the German elections
Second possibility:The IMF is not sure if the debt is sustainable or not(grey area) but wants to pull out of the problem thus throwing the responsibility to Germans as to find an excuse to pull out(''we estimated the Greek debt is non sustainable,the Germans refused the restructuring,we do not want to lose money so we pull out of the third bail out package'')
Third possibility:The Germans truly believe the Greek debt is sustainable especially if they manage to get the Greek oil and gas reserves exploitation which are supposedely to be found in the Aegean sea in the foreseeable future(close to Cyprus resources).
Fourth possibility:The IMF truly regards Greek debt as non sustainable.They get pressed by the US and other countries to ask pressure on Germans so that the Germans spend more to stablize the euro and the world economy as a result.

The Greek representatives have strict orders to not participate in any discussion regarding sustainability of debt and or future haircut.They are forbidden to take the one or the other side(obviously the IMF side serves the Greek interests but ours do not want to enrage the Germans,the latter know this very well.This makes the position of the Greek government very vulnerable in the interior as they get accused of lethargy,fear,slave status to Germans,lack of boldness,objectives etc.They will likely be accused as traitors if things go wrong(the Germans bought you,they had you in hand by former cases where they bribed you etc).

Post: #73

Greek Kamaki - how has your life changed over the last few years, living through this mess?

Post: #74

(11-21-2012 04:36 AM)Greek kamaki Wrote:  My predictions:
1.Greek GDP/capita in the end of 2013 to Slovak levels(PPP=23500$)(now at 25000$)
2.Unemployment in Greece 30% in 2013(now at 25%)
3.6-7% recession(7% in 2012)
4.Budget deficit at 7 billion euro(now at 2 billion)
5.Debt/GDP=200%(now at 190%)

This sounds like it means incremental reduction of quality of life for Greeks, not any kind of catastrophe. (Of couse, the vague future argument VFA could follow "It will mean disaster in the future! -- then we're back to mere doom-saying and speculation.)

Post: #75

(11-21-2012 06:12 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  Greek Kamaki - how has your life changed over the last few years, living through this mess?

The worst were the tax increases in property and income.They made us bleed.This also reduced my capability of travelling often abroad as most disposable income went to new and newer taxes.When you think about the mass tax evasion of the others you become mad.
Personally I witnessed here a great reduction of living standars in the last 4 years.I would say the fall of the living standards is around 40%.For example 4 years ago 30-50% of cars were new and of relatively good brands now only 5-10% of cars in the streets are new and a 50% and over of cars are 15-20 years old.
4 years ago most people were good dressed now most wear cheap clothes and shoes.The beggars and the narcomans have multiplied.Homeless are everywhere to be seen.Prostitution has hugely increased some streets are only filled with narcomans,dealers,prostitutes and beggars.I can shoot photos to show you drug dealing in the open while police some meters away do not care.

A 20% of shops have closed and the rest has drastically reduced their items for sale.In the good resorts in the summer there are very few Greeks to be seen while their numbers in cheap resorts have been disproportionally increased.I saw very few Greeks abroad lately while in the past you saw quite a few Greek tourists in places like Prague etc.