(04-03-2012 04:18 PM)choichoi Wrote: Happy hunting Entropy. I've been getting banged by USD/ZAR alot mostly cause I've been just jumping in and not coming up with a solid entry plan. This time, stepped back and studied the mistakes I've been making: bad entry nnd placing stops to close (this pair is hella volatile). I spent hours setting this up and it paid off, well:
3/30
usd-zar
long-7.61460
stop-7.54621
limit-7.717
r/r: 1/1.5
explanation:
USD/ZAR is still in uptrend and I have identfied a very consistent uptrend channel on the 4hr.
Fib levels drawn from
A:03/27/2012 5:00:00 to B 03/29/2012 9:00:00
Plan to buy at convergence of trendline and s1 level 7.61460
Stop will be at s2 level 7.54621 (-683pips)
Limit will be 7.717 (+1024)
Results
+861 pips
sold at 7.00750; 163pips short of limit order - got nervous because it seemed like previous candle 04/03-12:00 slipped past my limit -glitch maybe -decided I was happy making back my losses and then some. May get back in once market bounces of r/s level.
I see what you did. You hybridize FIB levels(30, 50, 61) + pivot levels + SR; all confluenced with TL.
More confluence is not a bad thing. Did you use the standard way to calculate your pivot or did you use a modified formulae?
I need to head out now...i will come back later to further look at your chart and offer a more detailed study.
Yes, USD/ZAR is very volatile. Oh yes, usd/zar has reached your originally intended price target of 7.717. See? If only.....trading is never easy for anybody...the psychology pressures alone. Trust me, i deeply know what you are going through.
anyways, i have attached two charts below. one is your USD/ZAR...the other was the daily AUD/USD channel that i took. I like channels.
Like i said, i am not into any bank...including goldman sachs. This toxic derivative shit makes me allergic to all of them.
I think ACA is bearish to neutral. That is, if you look on the 3 year chart you will notice a consolidation between the levels of 4 and 6. I expect resistance at 6. Basically, it looks like the stocks is moving back and forth between those two price points: direction neutral.
Now, if you go to the YTD chart...you can see the double top formation + the trendline break to the downside...this technically indicates a bearish condition.
Mr. JULIO26,
I like doing followups....FR:ACA is now at 4.50...resting on support...will it bounce or break down through support? only time will tell. Of course, i was bearish on this from 5.01, technically speaking. Now, new decision, how will it handle 4.50? i dont know.
Last time it was at 5.011...now...it is at 4.50. that is a 10% gain in the short direction. chart update attached:
Like i said, i am not into any bank...including goldman sachs. This toxic derivative shit makes me allergic to all of them.
I think ACA is bearish to neutral. That is, if you look on the 3 year chart you will notice a consolidation between the levels of 4 and 6. I expect resistance at 6. Basically, it looks like the stocks is moving back and forth between those two price points: direction neutral.
Now, if you go to the YTD chart...you can see the double top formation + the trendline break to the downside...this technically indicates a bearish condition.
Mr. JULIO26,
I like doing followups....FR:ACA is now at 4.50...resting on support...will it bounce or break down through support? only time will tell. Of course, i was bearish on this from 5.01, technically speaking. Now, new decision, how will it handle 4.50? i dont know.
Last time it was at 5.011...now...it is at 4.50. that is a 10% gain in the short direction. chart update attached:
new update charts with annotations attached below:
Thanks Entropy, welcome back...
Well Im still waiting the right moment for ACA... I think there is still a strong upside potential when the picture will be less darker.
But with the current situation in Europe (Spain about to be the new Greece) Im a bit pessimistic right now.
(04-04-2012 06:47 AM)choichoi Wrote: Great breakdown man, and thank you for it. I'll refer to it for developing more solid trading plans.
I am glad i could help.
(04-04-2012 07:20 AM)julio26 Wrote: Thanks Entropy, welcome back...
Well Im still waiting the right moment for ACA... I think there is still a strong upside potential when the picture will be less darker.
But with the current situation in Europe (Spain about to be the new Greece) Im a bit pessimistic right now.
Who isnt pessimistic about old europe? What will happen there? It is anybody's guess. Who honestly know what the bloody fuck is going on? I certainly dont. Europe is a bleeding mess.
Of course, since price has gained roughly 20% to the short position from 5.01. The question now is: what is next? I have attached a new chart below outlining what i think could potentially happen and why.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2012 06:45 AM by Entropy.)
I will post some potential setups, of course, CHINA inflation data and JPY current account are coming out later during day..both very important....especially the role that CHINA plays as major engine of global demand to AUD and NZD specifically.
Anyways, to start things off...i present:
AND a little of Baroque music piece from George Frideric Handel's.
Later, i will do some posts on commodities/futures and stocks indexes around the world.....i will subsequently expand things to include individual stocks too.
Of course, fundamental analysis will be mixed in.
a little bit of johannes sebastian bach's Brandenburg Concerto No. 3.
(04-08-2012 03:54 PM)whitenoise Wrote: i'm reading a great book at the moment. finding alpha by eric falkenstein. i recommend anyone considering a sideline in punting read it first....
thanks for the recommendation on risk. i will look into the book by eric.
from a cursory read, he seems that he went after CAPM really hard, hey?
MBA lecturers wont like that.
this is the book that i learned security valuations/analysis from:
Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation by stephen penman.
reading Taleb's book on risk was an eye opener.
are you familiar with "The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities, by Frank J. Fabozzi" and "Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives by John Hull " ??
very, very, very good infos Entropy! I wish you had posted this a few years ago...
I m focusing on the ES right now and I dont use Fibonacci, but I'm trying to see how it could help my trading...I find those videos you referenced very interesting, especially Yaguex...props bro!
ES, YM, NQ, ER: Trading the american stock indexes
(04-08-2012 07:23 PM)Pacman Wrote: very, very, very good infos Entropy! I wish you had posted this a few years ago...
I m focusing on the ES right now and I dont use Fibonacci, but I'm trying to see how it could help my trading...I find those videos you referenced very interesting, especially Yaguex...props bro!
No problemo, pacman. We all do the best that we can do. Yaguex is solid. One of the things that nudge me towards confluence of TL and S/R was looking at yaguex best trades...they tends to be a confluence of TL and S/R.
You trade the ES? Cool stuff. I guess i could start there: posting setups on the ES, the YM(dow), the NQ(nasdaq), and the ER(russell).
What are your thoughts on market profile as a tool?
RE: ES, YM, NQ, ER: Trading the american stock indexes
Quote:You trade the ES? Cool stuff. I guess i could start there: posting setups on the ES, the YM(dow), the NQ(nasdaq), and the ER(russell).
What are your thoughts on market profile as a tool?
Well I am focusing full time on trading but I am still on paper trading mode....as you said it's very hard work and I will go with real money only in 1-2 months from now
Although I do use market profile all the time, the bottom line is: I trade what I see: eg trendline breaks or range breaks most of the time, especially on report publications.
RE: ES, YM, NQ, ER: Trading the american stock indexes
Hey entropy! I dont know why the fuck you've been banned but I want to keep in touch with you...what you've showed here has been invaluable to me!
please write me to this mailbox: [email protected]
04-11-2012 09:08 AM
The following 1 user Likes Pacman's post:1 user Likes Pacman's post choichoi
I just got a job working with somebody that runs a day trading room with a live stream every morning. It is interesting but I no close to nothing about the markets. I am hoping to learn more as I go, but it seems like he makes a very interesting and profitable living. I am open to talking/skyping with anyone who is also interested in learning more about the day trading lifestyle.
(04-05-2015 05:27 PM)JoeyKhmer Wrote: I just got a job working with somebody that runs a day trading room with a live stream every morning. It is interesting but I no close to nothing about the markets. I am hoping to learn more as I go, but it seems like he makes a very interesting and profitable living. I am open to talking/skyping with anyone who is also interested in learning more about the day trading lifestyle.
Why would you need to talk/Skype with someone about your new gig that you "no" nothing about when you have this forum? I'm smelling a
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