(09-23-2011 06:21 PM)Pusscrook Wrote: (09-22-2011 11:29 PM)oldnemesis Wrote: (09-22-2011 08:21 AM)Pusscrook Wrote: There's also the Norwegian family in that report who seemed to have been infected earlier than 1971 but had similar viral sequence to the plasma sample. I can post more examples of others who were not in the Congo but had HIV like symptoms and died rapidly.
So what is your point here? I don't get it, are you trying to say HIV transmission happened early? Later?
Quote:The question you posted concerning "it takes some time for a person to become infected", is a burning one. In my opinion it has never really been quantified, since there is wild and varying evidence that the potency of the infection and its rate, affect each person differently. Some die in months, some in years.
My statement wasn't about being dead, it was about that it takes time (sometime years) after the infection when the virus load in the person's bodily fluids reaches the threshold where the infection would be possible at all. Note that the most prevalent transmission routes nowadays (butt sex and IV drugs) weren't probably as widespread in Africa in 1950s as they're now in West. Probably blood transfusion wasn't either. So it was quite possible that people did get infected before, but had no chance to pass the infection to someone else before they died. Assume a straight, married African male gets infected at some age. The only person who he can pass it to is his wife. His kids may be born infected too, but in this case they won't survive long enough to be able to have sex. The infection chain ends here, and the infection is contained. To become an epidemic it had to be introduced to a community which would catalyst the spread.
Quote:Let's say we wanted to call this Ground zero , my question is how much of the population in such a dense area should have been wiped out considering the rate of infection now?
If the Congo population was like Ancient Rome, with everyone fucking everyone, then it would be a pretty realistic scenario, and they probably would not survive. Same if one could get HIV through more common means like coughing. But within the traditional style population it is self-contained quite easily.
Quote:Even if we factor in heterosexual transmission,which seems to be the most likely mode of transmission in this region, what happened to the monkeys? Did they stop producing SIV in their system?
SIV infections from monkeys to humans are still very common. However SIV is not a problem for a human body. It took several reinfections with a mutation within to get to HIV. And the one who got it was unlucky enough to be able to spread it to just more than his spouse.
Quote:Having said all of that, your last paragraph/statement "it remains unexplained why all epidemic HIV groups emerged in humans simultaneously" is the fucking missile that breaks the theory to shit. This was a powerful thing you wrote there.
This was a quite from Wiki article.
Quote:This is the burning question. THis tells me that perhaps you too don't buy into this "monkey gave me HIV" theory. I could be wrong on what you think and you could clarify that for me.We know its here, we know it kills, but how did it get here?
Honestly I don't care too much about it, so this theory is good enough for me - all alternative theories I've seen so far quite sucked. But I'll listen to yours.
I've tried on numerous occasions to post something to you, but nothing appears.
I was trying to quantify time with the previous posts but its cool. I don't have a theory at all , as I believe the answer lies somewhere in the middle of everything you, I , and everyone else has heard/read.
I did find some research quite interesting though. It does , once again, deal with time/opportunity so at the least its thought provoking and may not suck.
From what I understand the first set of gay men with AIDS like symptoms started showing up in New York in 1979, which is a few years prior to the "epidemic" first getting coined as such in Africa. THis has nothing to do with gay men being the cause of HIV , but rather serving as a conduit.
How this came to be has always been a mystery to me and has never been explained in terms of cross-atlantic viruses spreading only to a sub group of men in New York from Africa. That's quite an exclusive club for two "African Jumping Species" to set apart from the entire population. Smart shit I guess.
NOw, Coincidentally, there was an HEP-B/HERPES-8 (virus that causes kaposi Sarcoma in gay men) trial in 1970 by Merck and the NIH for 65 weeks. 13,000 men and 6 chimps were chosen. This seemed important because prior to this , apparently, there was no blood in the U.S. that tested positive for HIV or KS that caused "opportunistic ailments" in gay men. Now, according to published reports, when Robert Gallo came out with his test for HIV in the 80'S, all these stored blood samples somehow came back to be HIV positive when he tested them in the 80's. That's a quote from him in is book. This is about one year or so before the disease even was declared a worldwide epidemic. Two things had jumped out at me .
1. No one explained how the gay men somehow got this virus which originally came from Cameroon/COngo via monkeys. The study shows these men who signed up for the clinical trials,(SEE NIH report) were not well traveled sex tourist that were going to Africa in such alarming numbers, but regular men, some of whom were homeless. Why weren't other samples used from across the globe? THey were other men suffering from the same exact symptoms.
2. WHy were they having such a higher incident rate that those in the birthplace of the said virus?
Shifting gears a little, Merck and this same outfit (NIH) had established several chimp lab to research viral vaccines in West AFrica in the 70's. It is well documented as the "VLABI-II "of West AFrica. Oddly enough, it was to develop a HEP-B/KS VIRUS vaccine in chimps which just happens to be the same virus the gay men in New YOrk were suffering from. Even prior to that, MERCK and NIH, had developed the virus cancer program(VCP) in 1968 which attempted to show viruses cause cancer in humans. THis program was specifically designed to show that HEP-B and HERP-8 could cause the new "KS" virus which lead to "opportunistic' ailments( to me and you, a deficiency in the immune system). Strange though , this kind of cancer causing virus(HIV) only started showing up in gay men after the trials, and there was not one blood sample to support that prior. I mean , men had been fucking men way before that I think. I could be wrong.
Luc Montagnier who I believe the scientific community credits with the discovery of the HIV virus, was searching for revers transcriptase activity from the same plasma samples from gay men in New York and his story is that he found traces of what we now know as HIV in most of the samples. These were the only samples on record with the combination of viruses in the U.S. at that time.
Another little nugget of info in terms of time. there is a JAMA report from 1986 that shows that in 1981 20% of the men were infected, but by 1984, 40% became infected. THere are other examples, but it's useless to post it here at this time. If you wanted to check though, you can check out the full report on testing gay man in Holland at that same time.
This KS virus is unique to the scientist who is researching it, it seems.. THe virus supposedly had been documented as far back as 1872 but was never considered part of any "opportunistic or communicable disease . How it was showing up in hoards of gay men in New York and subsequently in other U.S. cities and in clinical participants of the Cancer Virus Program(VCP), has never been answered. Even more interesting is that this new "kS' virus is very closely related to a monkey virus knows as Herpes virus Saimiri. Though related to other cancers such as lymphoma, this virus was showing up in gay men 3-4 more times. I think it has been well established that HIV is a cancer causing virus that ends with "opportunistic" ailments that cause cellular death.
Furthermore, this "ks" virus is ten fold in gay men who have died than the general population suffering from any other form of cancer caused by HIV.
I went a step further to look up t-lymphotropic viruses that may have similarities to Simian viruses yet are only present in humans. Interestingly , Merck and the NIH had been researching and developing vaccines for the same retrovirus prototypes knows as (I,II,III,IV) as far back as 1979. These names are no longer used when referring to the retro virus HIV, however , the pioneers of this research in Africa, during the same time the trials were going on is Merck and the NIH. Just a coincidence , I guess. What was odd though is that "wiki" states this about those" t lympho" types previously mentioned. " These viruses were discovered in rural Cameroon in 2005, and were, it is presumed, transmitted from monkeys to hunters of monkeys, through bites and scratches. Strange they would say that these viruses were discovered in 2005 in Cameroon and was transmitted to humans when they were already being studied , 30 something years ago.