Post: #51

(12-28-2014 04:36 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  I am not a doomsday believer, life will go on as always.

If you seriously think the dollar will be around in 40 years then I got a bridge to sell you.

The dollar probably won't be around (or at least a reserve currency) in 40 years, but it is hard to see the dollar losing its place in the monetary system in the near future (next 10 years).

The main reason is there is currently no alternative to the dollar other than going back to a gold-backed monetary system which no central bank in the world wants.

A lot of people talk about the Chinese Yuan being the next reserve currency. However, this leaves out that the Yuan doesn't have the bond market necessary to become a reserve currency yet. You realistically need a deep pool of liquidity in various maturities (from one month to 30 years) along with investor protections to have a real shot at being a reserve currency.

China is not there yet and won't be there for at least 10 years (if not more).

Thus, that leaves the dollar, flawed as it is, as the only real reserve currency for now.

Post: #52

(12-28-2014 04:46 PM)Tex Pro Wrote:  

(12-28-2014 04:36 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  I am not a doomsday believer, life will go on as always.

If you seriously think the dollar will be around in 40 years then I got a bridge to sell you.

The dollar probably won't be around (or at least a reserve currency) in 40 years, but it is hard to see the dollar losing its place in the monetary system in the near future (next 10 years).

The main reason is there is currently no alternative to the dollar other than going back to a gold-backed monetary system which no central bank in the world wants.

A lot of people talk about the Chinese Yuan being the next reserve currency. However, this leaves out that the Yuan doesn't have the bond market necessary to become a reserve currency yet. You realistically need a deep pool of liquidity in various maturities (from one month to 30 years) along with investor protections to have a real shot at being a reserve currency.

China is not there yet and won't be there for at least 10 years (if not more).

Thus, that leaves the dollar, flawed as it is, as the only real reserve currency for now.

Of course it will be around and a main currency also. As long as USA exists the currency is the same.

Post: #53

(12-28-2014 04:50 PM)jimukr104 Wrote:  

(12-28-2014 04:46 PM)Tex Pro Wrote:  

(12-28-2014 04:36 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  I am not a doomsday believer, life will go on as always.

If you seriously think the dollar will be around in 40 years then I got a bridge to sell you.

The dollar probably won't be around (or at least a reserve currency) in 40 years, but it is hard to see the dollar losing its place in the monetary system in the near future (next 10 years).

The main reason is there is currently no alternative to the dollar other than going back to a gold-backed monetary system which no central bank in the world wants.

A lot of people talk about the Chinese Yuan being the next reserve currency. However, this leaves out that the Yuan doesn't have the bond market necessary to become a reserve currency yet. You realistically need a deep pool of liquidity in various maturities (from one month to 30 years) along with investor protections to have a real shot at being a reserve currency.

China is not there yet and won't be there for at least 10 years (if not more).

Thus, that leaves the dollar, flawed as it is, as the only real reserve currency for now.

Of course it will be around and a main currency also. As long as USA exists the currency is the same.

I think rudeboy means it won't be a reserve currency in 40 years, which I do agree with.

It will continue to be around, but it will not be the global standard anymore.

Post: #54

For those that want to argue this point.

So what exactly is the AMERO?
For you mainstream media types, Lou Dobbs actually talked about this on CNN, I guess that is why he isn't there anymore.

Also the Chinese want a gold backed currency, they also want silver and gold adjusted to the price it should be. Of course America doesn't want this, they want to keep printing money out of thin air.

Post: #55

(12-28-2014 05:17 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  For those that want to argue this point.

So what exactly is the AMERO?
For you mainstream media types, Lou Dobbs actually talked about this on CNN, I guess that is why he isn't there anymore.

Also the Chinese want a gold backed currency, they also want silver and gold adjusted to the price it should be. Of course America doesn't want this, they want to keep printing money out of thin air.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/amerocoin.asp

You seem to have softened your position as the thread progressed, from "the USD will be dead/worthless in three years, buy gold" to "they won't be the sole reserve currency in 40 years".

Anyhow, an interesting topic to discuss at a potential January meetup.

Post: #56

(12-27-2014 11:43 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  Suits I am saying the dollar will be devalued or crash within the next year or two.

I am serious as well. I will buy you dinner next time you are in Toronto, if I lose the bet.

Like Samseau said the con game can't go on forever. In fact when you look at zero percent interest rate it actually works out to negative interest rate when you look at service charges you have to pay.

I also believe the chess game going on with Russia and America could lead into something bigger.

I think that I may have been a little confused by your post.

By "worthless," I was led to believe that you believed that the dollar would be "unable to buy anything of value" three years down the road.

As far as your further point about the economic system being unbalanced and beyond logic, I agree wholeheartedly.

On the other hand, I see the US and Canada containing enough innate value, that I'm not concerned about either turning into Somolia.

However, I could absolutely see a reduction of standard of living as a result of a currency crash.

But even if that does happen, farms in the US and Canada will still be producing food and people are going to use currency to buy that food, namely dollars.

A total loss of people's retirement savings in a lot of cases, however, is a reasonable assumption, since the stock market is based entirely on presumed value and we all know how that can go.

For myself, I'm all for a weakening dollar, in the US and/or Canada, so that I can get more value when I exchange the yuan I earn on a daily basis, for services and products in North America when I visit.

But for the good the global stability, I'm hoping that the people have hold the strings have the ability and desire to fix this. I'm not sure that they do on either count.

Thank you for your on-going forum contributions.

Post: #57

(12-28-2014 04:46 PM)Tex Pro Wrote:  

(12-28-2014 04:36 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  I am not a doomsday believer, life will go on as always.

If you seriously think the dollar will be around in 40 years then I got a bridge to sell you.

The dollar probably won't be around (or at least a reserve currency) in 40 years, but it is hard to see the dollar losing its place in the monetary system in the near future (next 10 years).

The main reason is there is currently no alternative to the dollar other than going back to a gold-backed monetary system which no central bank in the world wants.

A lot of people talk about the Chinese Yuan being the next reserve currency. However, this leaves out that the Yuan doesn't have the bond market necessary to become a reserve currency yet. You realistically need a deep pool of liquidity in various maturities (from one month to 30 years) along with investor protections to have a real shot at being a reserve currency.

China is not there yet and won't be there for at least 10 years (if not more).

Thus, that leaves the dollar, flawed as it is, as the only real reserve currency for now.

The yuan isn't even a freely traded currency. It's a hell of a lot easier to spend your yuan in China than to try to exchange it.

There are significant limits on how much a person can exchange. You have to show your ID, etc and they track how much. I think it's limited to $500 per day, which may seem like a lot more than many people earn, but that's a lot of trips to the bank, because if you don't exchange on a given day, you can't exchange $1000 the next day.

I give it many, many moons, because the yuan is even freely traded.

It basically is just glorified monopoly money now.

Post: #58

(12-29-2014 03:11 AM)Suits Wrote:  

(12-28-2014 04:46 PM)Tex Pro Wrote:  

(12-28-2014 04:36 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  I am not a doomsday believer, life will go on as always.

If you seriously think the dollar will be around in 40 years then I got a bridge to sell you.

The dollar probably won't be around (or at least a reserve currency) in 40 years, but it is hard to see the dollar losing its place in the monetary system in the near future (next 10 years).

The main reason is there is currently no alternative to the dollar other than going back to a gold-backed monetary system which no central bank in the world wants.

A lot of people talk about the Chinese Yuan being the next reserve currency. However, this leaves out that the Yuan doesn't have the bond market necessary to become a reserve currency yet. You realistically need a deep pool of liquidity in various maturities (from one month to 30 years) along with investor protections to have a real shot at being a reserve currency.

China is not there yet and won't be there for at least 10 years (if not more).

Thus, that leaves the dollar, flawed as it is, as the only real reserve currency for now.

The yuan isn't even a freely traded currency. It's a hell of a lot easier to spend your yuan in China than to try to exchange it.

There are significant limits on how much a person can exchange. You have to show your ID, etc and they track how much. I think it's limited to $500 per day, which may seem like a lot more than many people earn, but that's a lot of trips to the bank, because if you don't exchange on a given day, you can't exchange $1000 the next day.

I give it many, many moons, because the yuan is even freely traded.

It basically is just glorified monopoly money now.

Good point.

The Chinese leadership have said that they eventually want the Yuan to be free floating, but they haven't mentioned a date so I suspect that that is still a ways off. Right now they need extensive capital controls to prevent too much money from flowing out of China.

The Chinese government is, however, engaging in currency swap deals with lot of countries and they are allowing limited Yuan-denominated bond issuances in various financial markets around the world. The Chinese also have their own infrastructure development bank.

Thus, they are making the moves necessary to eventually build a reserve currency. They are smartly moving slowly since these sort of things take time and will not happen overnight. It could take as long as 20 years for the Chinese to build a monetary system to replace the dollar as the global standard. Nevertheless, the dollar will eventually lose its place, of that I am pretty damn sure.

Post: #59

Oil is another example of how QE fucks up the world. QE was stopped this September, and as the cheap money runs out the price of oil crashed because dollars are becoming more scarce and valuable. You can actually look at a chart of oil over the past six months and the price of oil started sinking back in June as QE purchases became smaller and smaller. When the QE spigot goes back on, the price of oil rises as investors buy hundreds of millions of call and put contracts.

In 2008, Oil crashed from 150 to below 50, and then when QE started the price of oil when shooting back up to 100.

Is there an buying opportunity to be made? Only if you're on the inside and know the FED's next move. Otherwise, by the time us peons hear the news of the next QE, the big investors have already bought all the put and call contracts they can handle and the price of oil jumps 20-40 bucks by the time you place an order on COMEX.

The fact that oil is so volatile relative to the supply of dollars shows just how fragile this system is. Since 2008 America has been facing extreme deflation, so the FED tries to fight it by printing trillions but it doesn't work. It's just pushing on a string. They've pumped over 4 trillion into the economy with QE, and the month QE ends oil prices come crashing back down to 2008 levels. It's like QE never existed at all. This is a shell game and the only question is who will be left holding the bag?

The reason none of the printed money is causing inflation, of course, is because the rich gobbled up all of it and you or I get scraps, if we're lucky to get anything at all. That's why money velocity is at all time lows. That's why income inequality is so damn high right now. So despite the market being flooded with extra dollars, the rich are all sitting on it waiting for the next big crash so they can further monopolize their power. The fact that the rich are getting so damn rich is a huge unintended consequence of QE.

Post: #60

There has also been, recently, a lot of commotion over the fact that the USA's GDP increased so far in 2014. Here's Peter Schiff to debunk all the claims of bulls and lay down some cold truth:





It's amazing at how Peter can see through the lies and find the most relevant stats:

- Housing starts at all time lows
- Most people with student loans are DROPOUTs, and do not even have a degree with which to make money and pay back the loans
- Most GDP increase (2/3rds) comes from Americans being forced to pay more for Obamacare
- Savings rate has declined this year
- The oil crash is going to cost a lot of jobs in the Bakken oil fields

Post: #61

" The fact that the rich are getting so damn rich is a huge unintended consequence of QE. "

You sure about the unintended bit?