Post: #1

It's been just brutal. Market overall not that bad, down 10-15% overall, but my portfolio is way more than 2x that, what with margin and options...
Personally for me it's worse than 2008.

And funniest thing is, people are getting out of stocks and scrambling to buy T-bills for their perceived safety, accepting 2% yield on the 10-year note. This when the budget deficit is 25% and the printing presses are being warmed up. While stocks are in pretty decent shape actually, with corporate balance sheets way better than the government one, and the income statements showing record profits.

Post: #2

Hmm i was about to get into the market a few weeks back, glad i didnt! I think ill wait for it to get really bad so i can buy some stocks and sit on them until it comes back!

sucks that you lost some money man

Post: #3

Sitting pretty good with all my savings in the bank now.

My old man has me beat though. He got out early last week and now he's planning on buying in at 80% on the same stocks he dumped 10days ago.

Post: #4

I've always looked at things long-term because of the volatility.

Post: #5

Yesterdays drop in the Dow Jones is a sign of things to come, get out now while the going is good or you risk losing it all.

The Europe situation is worse than they are saying and the US market is not much better. I am off to buy more Silver today and maybe a 1/4 or 1/2 oz off Gold.

Post: #6

Quote:get out now while the going is good or you risk losing it all

People were saying the exact same thing when the DOW went down to 6500 in '09 and if you sold then you would have lost 50-75% of your investments. The market is not for short term investing and if you think it is you are, for all intents and purposes, a sucker. Over the long run, 20 years+, the market has returned 8-9%.

No one beats the market, that's why you should invest in index funds. If you can't beat the market you should just own the market.

If you look at gold and silver as an investment, in terms of real return, they have averaged about 1-2% since the early 1800's. They can't even beat inflation. Good luck with that.

Post: #7

Completely agree with Farmageddon. You haven't lost anything until you sell. The only way you could "lose it all" would be if the entire system crashed and then stocks would be the last of your worries.

Post: #8

(08-05-2011 01:16 PM)Farmageddon Wrote:  

Quote:get out now while the going is good or you risk losing it all

People were saying the exact same thing when the DOW went down to 6500 in '09 and if you sold then you would have lost 50-75% of your investments. The market is not for short term investing and if you think it is you are, for all intents and purposes, a sucker. Over the long run, 20 years+, the market has returned 8-9%.

No one beats the market, that's why you should invest in index funds. If you can't beat the market you should just own the market.

If you look at gold and silver as an investment, in terms of real return, they have averaged about 1-2% since the early 1800's. They can't even beat inflation. Good luck with that.

Good points.

The index recommendation makes sense. My personal recommendation is to invest in Canadian banks. Canada was and is the least effected by financial crisis. Reasons:

1) Canadian banking system is highly conservative. Canadian banking system does not accommodate sub-prime lending. It stayed away from asset-backed mortgages and collateralized debt obligations. Furthermore, it completely avoided credit default swaps/derivatives. Canadian banks are highly conservative and really do their due diligence in their investment banking.

2) Canadian banks naturally invest a lot in the Canadian economy, which is largely commodities based. Oil, natural gas, mining (gold, potash, etc.) will be in high demand in years to come. If prices do drop, commodities are easy to hedge against. Energy and mining are the backbone of Canada's economy.

Take a look at the stock performances of Canadian banks, such as TD, Scotiabank, Royal Bank of Canada, and Bank of Montreal. Canada was the only major country that did not have a bank go bankrupt during the financial crisis. Just my advice for whatever it's worth.

Post: #9

Yeah, I lost 20% this week, worse than 2008. I had some stocks that missed earnings, and I was chasing the bottom, I thought that today with the good employment data this was going to rebound but then it crashed again and right now is rebounding thanks to the European QE1

Post: #10

Opposite for me, I've been shorting US market for a short while, long on BRIC. Mostly through the ETFs like DXD and SKF

Gold will beat the REAL inflation figures, but the CPI is extremely skewed. If you look at alterantive inflation calculations, like shadow stats, etc, gold is doing very well, when we expect it too. Until they put energy and food back into the core CPI, the CPI will continue to be a joke.

I would caution against "you haven't lost until you sell". #1 rule to really make money in the markets is to cut your losses early. You can always buy back if you think you see good bargains. My own strategy is to take small gambles, accept my small losses, but be in good position to win big(relatively speaking) when I can. Out of every 10 trades I make, 7 are probably small losses, with 3 being decent winners, but with a bigger total combined spread.

Post: #11

(08-05-2011 02:43 PM)Sh0t Wrote:  I would caution against "you haven't lost until you sell". #1 rule to really make money in the markets is to cut your losses early.

If you're daytrading, sure!

If you have long time savings in stock, not so much.

Post: #12

I'm making a killing with CEF (gold fund). I bought 400 shares in 2008. It has doubled in price since then.

The rest of my money is in cash or government bond ETFs, which have been pretty flat this year. I have a lot of cash sitting in my accounts earning no interest and I'm find with that.

Post: #13

Quote:get out now while the going is good or you risk losing it all

If you're in it for the long term, and have kept reserves on the side, buying the dips would be the best option. The markets will not go to 0. If we have a couple more down days, Bernanke will come to the rescue with QE3... I can smell it already...

If your day trading, be careful... it's really volatile out there, stop losses will get taken out quick in markets like this.

(08-05-2011 01:16 PM)Farmageddon Wrote:  If you look at gold and silver as an investment, in terms of real return, they have averaged about 1-2% since the early 1800's. They can't even beat inflation. Good luck with that.

I'm not planning on holding gold and silver for 200 years, just for the next 5-10, maybe a bit longer... Have you seen the appreciation on gold and silver over the past 10 years?



Doesn't look like 1 - 2 % to me.... More like 500-600%...

Your right, Gold is not an investment... it's hard money... It should be seen a such, that's why all central banks in the world hold it in reserves... and it's the only alternative right now to governments who are debasing their currencies all over the world. Good luck not owning any...

Post: #14

(08-05-2011 05:08 PM)Roosh Wrote:  I'm making a killing with CEF (gold fund). I bought 400 shares in 2008. It has doubled in price since then.

The rest of my money is in cash or government bond ETFs, which have been pretty flat this year. I have a lot of cash sitting in my accounts earning no interest and I'm find with that.

Roosh,

I know you recently reviewed Harry Browne's one book, but did you ever read any of this personal finance ones? His best one is "Fail Safe Investing" where he details his permanent portfolio (25% cash, 25% Long Term Bonds, 25% stocks, 25% gold). There's also a website that discusses it in depth, google "Crawling Road Investing."

The portfolio has averaged around 9.5% since 1972, with only 3-4 down years. In 2008, I think it made around 1-2% and it's up around 5% this year. I'm only mentioning it b/c it's very close to your current portfolio, and you liked HB's other book.

(08-05-2011 01:16 PM)Farmageddon Wrote:  If you look at gold and silver as an investment, in terms of real return, they have averaged about 1-2% since the early 1800's. They can't even beat inflation. Good luck with that.

You can't compare any investment in gold or silver before 1972. Before that, both metals were fixed at a price set by the govt since the founding of the US, so it really screws up any type of comparisons against asset classes (see the book Pieces of Eight).

Personally, I'm currently sitting 50% gold and 50% cash. I had a lot of silver, but sold out back in late April. In early May, I figured that all the debt ceiling talk was BS, and when the debt ceiling passed, the market would be flooded with new bonds and really drive down the rates. I bought TMF (the 3x Bull Treasury Bond ETF). Went up around 30 something percent and sold out of it yesterday because I didn't want to risk any loss due to a "good" jobs report.

I'm going to see what the market does on Mon, b/c I'm thinking of buying some 3x bear S&P funds.

Post: #15

If you guys are into gold, silver, etc...you should pay attention to Jim Rogers. Generally regarded as the world's foremost expert on such commodities. I remember him saying in 2008, gold will near or reach $2000. At the moment, he is saying it is not a good time to get into gold.

Post: #16

(08-05-2011 04:31 PM)Vicious Wrote:  

(08-05-2011 02:43 PM)Sh0t Wrote:  I would caution against "you haven't lost until you sell". #1 rule to really make money in the markets is to cut your losses early.

If you're daytrading, sure!

If you have long time savings in stock, not so much.

Long term saving in stock is just asking to get reamed, especially these days. Blue chips are a myth, and even index funds are going to under perform even mild active management.

It's also a gamble on the ENTIRE economy, which I'm bearish on.

I'm very bearish on the long term potential of the US market, but bullish in spurts. ESPECIALLY for stocks. For commodities, I'm the opposite. Bullish in the long run, but I occasionally get the balls to short them.

Post: #17

I can't see how you can argue with the performance of index funds in the long term. At least if you have the discipline to NOT manage them.

Granted I'm speaking on this from a Scandinavian which are far more solid than the US economy. Up to the recent default talks however US index funds have been a very good long term investment. It's a moot point that managing savings in index funds will have them perform better since 99% of the population do not want (or have the insight) to do monthly or even yearly fine tuning.

Post: #18

S&P has just degraded the US from AAA rating to AA+

Post: #19

(08-06-2011 01:34 AM)bars Wrote:  S&P has just degraded the US from AAA rating to AA+

Just saw that. It's the first time this has ever happened. If I had my wage paid in dollars I'd exchange it to swiss franc this instance at least until wednesday when the worst panic has settled.

Post: #20

(08-06-2011 01:34 AM)bars Wrote:  S&P has just degraded the US from AAA rating to AA+

American rating agencies have no credibility in my view. They had AAA rating on sub prime and other debt that went to zero. U.S. credit should be lower then AA+...

S&P is just trying to save some face, too little to late.

I'm waiting for a dip in Gold to accumulate some more... But this time I'm looking at something like SGOL: Physical Swiss Gold Trust ETF

Roosh, CEF is a good choice, you get exposure to Gold and Silver in one shot.

Post: #21

(08-05-2011 09:11 PM)Sh0t Wrote:  

(08-05-2011 04:31 PM)Vicious Wrote:  

(08-05-2011 02:43 PM)Sh0t Wrote:  I would caution against "you haven't lost until you sell". #1 rule to really make money in the markets is to cut your losses early.

If you're daytrading, sure!

If you have long time savings in stock, not so much.

Long term saving in stock is just asking to get reamed, especially these days. Blue chips are a myth, and even index funds are going to under perform even mild active management.

It's also a gamble on the ENTIRE economy, which I'm bearish on.

I'm very bearish on the long term potential of the US market, but bullish in spurts. ESPECIALLY for stocks. For commodities, I'm the opposite. Bullish in the long run, but I occasionally get the balls to short them.

This is what I meant earlier, keeping long term stocks is suicide. About two month ago I bought HZU.TO which is a silver fund and I have already lost 50%.

Any thoughts on 401ks?
My old company has the option for me to get a lump sum on my Pension or wait until I retire to get the monthly payments, I am thinking of taking the lump sum!

Post: #22

I just do the long term index fund thing, I'm not skilled or knowledgeable enough to deal with individual stocks. If you're looking at a long term investment look at index funds.

Post: #23

I'm all about commodities and futures. Right now I'm just waiting for QE3, then I'll probably buy some silver and oil calls.

Post: #24

(08-05-2011 05:45 PM)DanDeLaCruz Wrote:  

Quote:get out now while the going is good or you risk losing it all

If you're in it for the long term, and have kept reserves on the side, buying the dips would be the best option. The markets will not go to 0. If we have a couple more down days, Bernanke will come to the rescue with QE3... I can smell it already...

If your day trading, be careful... it's really volatile out there, stop losses will get taken out quick in markets like this.

(08-05-2011 01:16 PM)Farmageddon Wrote:  If you look at gold and silver as an investment, in terms of real return, they have averaged about 1-2% since the early 1800's. They can't even beat inflation. Good luck with that.

I'm not planning on holding gold and silver for 200 years, just for the next 5-10, maybe a bit longer... Have you seen the appreciation on gold and silver over the past 10 years?



Doesn't look like 1 - 2 % to me.... More like 500-600%...

Your right, Gold is not an investment... it's hard money... It should be seen a such, that's why all central banks in the world hold it in reserves... and it's the only alternative right now to governments who are debasing their currencies all over the world. Good luck not owning any...

Agreed, gold and silver are great investments, especially silver now. Most banks don't even have the gold to back their reserves anymore. When our economy goes to shambles, it would be nice to have some gold, it never looses value. My uncle made a killing investing in gold as well.

Post: #25

(08-06-2011 12:19 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  This is what I meant earlier, keeping long term stocks is suicide. About two month ago I bought HZU.TO which is a silver fund and I have already lost 50%.

Two months is hardly long term. I'm talking about years. I owned Ericsson shares from 1996-2004. During that time the stock split something like 4 times.