Post: #1

We all know this is a numbers game and none of us like that. I have spent years trying to reduce the numbers of approaches I have to do before I find an girl that's interested. And this is what I have learned. (Now, bear in mind, I am fairly decent in math and understand statistics. I am also a computer programmer so I understand how to reduce the complexity of a problem.) This is what I have found after years of testing all sorts of ideas.

The short answer is that while you can increase the probability of finding a girl that is interested in you you cannot reduce the number of tries it takes to do so. For example, lets say you believe that on average if you approached 5 Western European girls you will find one that is interested in you. This is just the likelihood of an outcome. On "average" or most of the time this may happen but there is no guarantee that it will happen on any given night. One night the first girl you approach could be interested. The next night you don't find one in the five girls you approach. The next night you could find one after approaching three girls. The important lesson here is that it is just a measure of the likelihood of something happening NOT the certainty of it. There is no certainty when it comes to women. Another way of thinking of it, is that an approach is the equivalent of buying a lottery ticket. It gives you a shot at winning a prize but it in no way guarantees that you will.

So while you can increase your chances of success by approaching within demographics that are favorable to you, you cannot decrease the number of approaches. This is why Roosh moved to Eastern Europe but you can also do it by just targeting different demographics within your city. I know from experience if I approach European girls I am twice as likely to find one that is interested in me vs Latin girls. But I can approach one European girl and one Latin girl and the European girl might not be interested and the Latin could be. There is no way to know if a specific girl will be one of the ones that will be interested in you or not.

Here is an example of what we (guys) do all the time, including me. I was at a car dealer yesterday when I saw this tall, model type latin girl working as a cashier there. Given the fact that I know my chances with Latin girls are about 20-1 plus that fact that this was a fairly attractive latin girl. I quickly talked myself out of approaching her by saying the probability of success was very low and mathematically it is. But since I have a rule that I have to approach any girl I find attractive in a decent situation. I forced myself to do it. Short version, the girl turned out to be very nice and was definitely interested, surprisingly so. I was actually taken back because when I walked up to her I was fully expecting a soft rejection. A lot of people in the dealer was looking at us because I ended up talking to her for about 15-20 minutes. The point is, she just happened to be one of the five percent BUT there was absolutely no way that I could have predicted that. Now, fast forward to the night, I was in a Latin club in Brickell. Saw two European girls dancing together, said to myself, nice this is a done deal, approached and suffered the only outright rejection that night.

While you can increase the odds of finding a girl who is interested in you by targeting different demographics or even locations you cannot predict with 100% certainty that any particular girl within that demographic or location will be one of them who is interested in you. So, you can reduce the average number of approaches but you still have to do the approaches because there is no way to know which one of the approaches will yield an interested girl.

Post: #2

Embrace rejection. Overcome probability.

Post: #3

Outright rejections are rare in my world but I would be lying if I said they don't bother me but I get over them fairly quickly.

Post: #4

yep, the number of approaches is the only thing you have 100% control over..

Post: #5

I look at every approach as a learning experience, I wouldn't give up the rejections for anything because it only makes my game tighter.

Post: #6

Every approach is a learning experience for sure, but you can increase your probability by looking for indicators of interest before the approach. I give this advice with a word of caution to not rely on these IOIs because you won't always get them, and if you use them as a crutch you might end up not approaching because there's no hot girls eyefucking you from across the bar, and that's a bad mentality to have. When I'm out, I'm approaching girls I'm interested in but I am also scanning the room every now and then to see if I can observe something that might be more promising. Don't go run off on a girl you're talking to just because another girl is looking at you, but if you feel the conversation hit a wall know where you're headed next. If you see a girl giving a real IOI, go and open and your success rate will go through the roof. Identifying IOIs is hugely helpful in reducing the amount of effort you expend hitting on girls that go nowhere.

Post: #7

Yes, IOI's can be of great help. Unfortunately, most guys, don't get them that often but it doesn't mean we shouldn't be on the lookout for them. Also to catch them consistently requires a great deal of experience - something most guys simply don't have.

Post: #8

At the end of the day, there are no short cuts. I can only identify IOIs because I've spent so much time out in bars over the last few years. You have to put your time in in the trenches before you can start streamlining your nights and screening girls well. Nobody should expect to walk into a bar, get the 'fuck me' eyes from the first girl they see and walk out. That won't happen. That might never happen. But if it does happen, and you're paying attention, the chances of missing it are a lot lower.

You need to spend time in the trenches. If you haven't gone out consistently for months/years, you probably have no idea what you're even going to be looking for. Eventually you get to a point where you can 'scan the room' and figure out your odds, but that doesn't happen overnight, and there are no shortcuts to get there.

Post: #9

This is an interesting breakdown. I need to steal that rule you have for yourself of approaching any girl you find attractive in a reasonable situation. Shit, I would even benefit from saying hey to every good looking girl that I pass by when I'm out and about.

My approach numbers are way lower than they should be, and that's something I've been working on lately.

At the end of the day, the guys who do the best are those who chat up every girl they find attractive.

Post: #10

I don't like the numbers game mentality. For me, the point is to be able to get what I want, not to want what I am able to get.

Post: #11

You'll miss 100% of the approaches you don't make.

Get out of your head.

Your rule is a good one: approach every pretty girl. Keep it moving.

Who cares if they reject you? It's part of the GAME.

Last night I think I approached around 4 girls and pulled 1 for the ONS. But I've developed a 6th sense for who's down and who's not. When I first got started I was doing tons of approaches. Now I'm more picky but a much higher success rate based on experience.

The only approach I've ever regretted is the one I didn't take.

Post: #12

(06-02-2014 01:01 AM)Christian McQueen Wrote:  The only approach I've ever regretted is the one I didn't take.

Very true and I have had many regrets of this nature in my life.

Post: #13

(06-02-2014 12:36 AM)polymath Wrote:  I don't like the numbers game mentality. For me, the point is to be able to get what I want, not to want what I am able to get.

None of us do but you may want to follow the advice of the song: take what you can get until you can get what you want.

Post: #14

(06-02-2014 01:01 AM)Christian McQueen Wrote:  The only approach I've ever regretted is the one I didn't take.

Same here, and personal story. I'm standing in the main room of my frat house, last party of the year. This girl is with her friends, but not paying any attention to them. She's staring at me with the eyes. You know what I mean by "the eyes."

I start walking up to her. I get pulled away because some idiot needs me to refill the bucket. I leave to refill it. I go to Wawa to buy more Solo cups. I come back and she's gone. I was pissed at myself for not making the approach with a girl who was clearly interested. And my roommate wasn't there, so the hook up was a real possibility.

And I'm still irritated with myself about it. Fortunately, I go to a small college. I'll see her again. If that happened in a large setting where I know I wouldn't see her again, I would've been more pissed.

Post: #15

(06-02-2014 12:36 AM)polymath Wrote:  I don't like the numbers game mentality. For me, the point is to be able to get what I want, not to want what I am able to get.

It is and it isn't a numbers game, in my opinion. Yes, the more women you approach, the more likely you are to succeed. However, you have to have a certain degree of skill to succeed, and if you don't have that certain degree of skill, then you can approach hundreds without seeing any actual results.

Post: #16

Even with some top notch skills you still have do a high number of approaches and the more girls you want the more approaches you will have to do UNLESS you are one good looking guy or famous in some way.

Post: #17

Think of it this way, if you want to understand my perspective.

Let's say you have a probability P, between 0 and 1 inclusive, of hooking up with a girl after you approach her. Assume that P is a function of your social skills, not of the specific woman that you pursue (yeah some are easier, some are more difficult, but stay with me). Now, if you do k approaches, you have a probability 1 - (1 - P)^k of smashing at least once. This means that you can either improve your odds by increasing P (the probability of fucking a given girl), or by increasing k (the number of approaches).

This isn't exact because in reality, your distribution is hypergeometric because you draw without replacement, although it approximates reality since the pool of women is so big. But anyway, the point is that I would rather increase P than k.

Or if that doesn't make sense: Someone else might go run the same shitty game on 8000000000 girls to ensure that he fucks, but I'll just go back to the drawing board every time I fuck up and get better. At the end of the day, I want to be a master of social interaction, and not just some sperm cannon.

Post: #18

I think we all can agree that increasing either your value or game skills will yield better results for any given number of approaches and by all means do so but unless you are very attractive or famous you are still going to have do N number of approaches for each positive outcome. And the more girls you want the more approaches you will have to do. Also, once your sample space is comprised of mostly 8+ girls, your social skills won't help as much because it won't be enough to overcome their relationships. So you have to approach an even higher number to find the ones that are temporarily single, separated, or exiting a relationship.

Post: #19

(06-02-2014 02:02 AM)polymath Wrote:  Think of it this way, if you want to understand my perspective.

Let's say you have a probability P, between 0 and 1 inclusive, of hooking up with a girl after you approach her. Assume that P is a function of your social skills, not of the specific woman that you pursue (yeah some are easier, some are more difficult, but stay with me). Now, if you do k approaches, you have a probability 1 - (1 - P)^k of smashing at least once. This means that you can either improve your odds by increasing P (the probability of fucking a given girl), or by increasing k (the number of approaches).

This isn't exact because in reality, your distribution is hypergeometric because you draw without replacement, although it approximates reality since the pool of women is so big. But anyway, the point is that I would rather increase P than k.

Or if that doesn't make sense: Someone else might go run the same shitty game on 8000000000 girls to ensure that he fucks, but I'll just go back to the drawing board every time I fuck up and get better. At the end of the day, I want to be a master of social interaction, and not just some sperm cannon.

ha that is so true. all other things equal, mathematically speaking, you increase your chances of success with each approach.