Post: #1

Silver at $19 an ounce right now, was as high as $48 about 3 years ago.

Anyone have a long term fundamental view?

It seems like institutional investors are getting out of gold and silver since the fall from all time highs and that the mainstream media are not hyping them anymore - might this be a good time to get in then?

Post: #2

I've been buying silver since 2010. To me it's a bad investment because of all of the volatility, but I use it as a savings plan. I'm paranoid as fuck and I don't trust banks, so I keep my metal secure someplace that I can get to. With interests rate as low as they are you won't make money holding it in savings.

Post: #3

See the silver thread!

Post: #4

Silver doesn't really trade on a fundamental value (even though there are some industrial uses for silver, as opposed to gold, which has very, very few productive uses). One of the biggest mistakes investors make is using historical prices as a some sort of benchmark. Blackberry (formerly Research In Motion) was trading at over $100 per share two years ago. AIG, on a split-adjusted value, was trading at over $1000 in 2008.

There was a spike in commodity prices from 2010 to 2012 because people were convinced that the Fed's Quantitative Easing would cause massive inflation (increased demand for gold jewelry from China and India also had an effect, but to a lessor extent). Well, despite the conspiracy theorists at ZeroHedge, inflation has been very tame, and Europe still faces the threat of deflation. The Fed's QE policies increased the monetary base not the money supply.

Long story, short: It's okay to buy some silver/gold, but makes sure it's not more than 2-3% of your total portfolio. For the long-run there is nothing better than equities.

Post: #5

I used to buy monster boxes of 500 coins and sell them sometimes coin by coin but more often than not get a box in the mail and run it right over to coinshop and make a quick 1500. I was paying about a buck over and they were paying 2 to 4 over depending. Worked for a while and then lost my ass on some dips. I see people saying silver going to 12. I think about 18 is bottom maybe float up to high 20. Dont see any big moves up or down comming but im just speculating dont know for sure

Post: #6

I read somewhere that too much silver is controlled by too few people for it to be a good major investment. For example if you buy too much silver, someone like Buffett can sell and basically kick your ass. Don't know if it's true.

Post: #7

(05-12-2014 01:21 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  I used to buy monster boxes of 500 coins and sell them sometimes coin by coin but more often than not get a box in the mail and run it right over to coinshop and make a quick 1500. I was paying about a buck over and they were paying 2 to 4 over depending. Worked for a while and then lost my ass on some dips. I see people saying silver going to 12. I think about 18 is bottom maybe float up to high 20. Dont see any big moves up or down comming but im just speculating dont know for sure

Where did you buy coins from?

Post: #8

(05-12-2014 01:58 PM)Sugar Wrote:  I read somewhere that too much silver is controlled by too few people for it to be a good major investment. For example if you buy too much silver, someone like Buffett can sell and basically kick your ass. Don't know if it's true.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/warren-buff...r-project/

Warren Buffett likes to tell people to buy stocks, not precious metals. Funny how is doesn't heed is own advice, he was forced to give up his silver.

Most of you probably don't remember "black monday", I do that is why i stick to precious metals.
I don't trust the banks, it has failed in other countries (Argentina). Who's to say it can't fail in America.

Post: #9

(05-09-2014 04:53 PM)centius Wrote:  Silver at $19 an ounce right now, was as high as $48 about 3 years ago.

Anyone have a long term fundamental view?

It seems like institutional investors are getting out of gold and silver since the fall from all time highs and that the mainstream media are not hyping them anymore - might this be a good time to get in then?

I'm a financial advisor. Work for a national firm. Here's my advice. As for silver....I own some. I'd make it no more than 10 - 15% of portfolio and store it somewhere secure. Hold long term in case the US dollar collapses.

Start a dollar cost averaging program where you add money to mutual funds every month until retirement. Fully fund your companies 401k if you have one. Invest at least....at least 10 % of your income. INvest in growth or blue chip mutual funds if you're an inexperienced investor.

Read 'the richest man in Babylon' also....build a savings account at the bank with 3 - 6 months living expenses so if times get tough you won't deplete your investment money. earlier you get started the better.

Post: #10

mutual funds are one of the greatest financial frauds of the baby boom generation. They only reason some of them made money is because there was a 30 year bull run in stocks and bonds. Cant wait to see how they do after fees and inflation over the next 20 years with all the debt that is around.

If you want to invest in stocks than educate yourself and do it yourself

No one gives a fuck about your money except you.

As for silver or gold, buy some every so often or once a month and just hide it and hope you never have to use it. Personally I have a lot of money invested in precious metals and I am as bullish as peter schiff. I hope it makes me a fortune one day but I sure wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Post: #11

(05-13-2014 08:40 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  mutual funds are one of the greatest financial frauds of the baby boom generation. They only reason some of them made money is because there was a 30 year bull run in stocks and bonds. Cant wait to see how they do after fees and inflation over the next 20 years with all the debt that is around.

If you want to invest in stocks than educate yourself and do it yourself

No one gives a fuck about your money except you.

As for silver or gold, buy some every so often or once a month and just hide it and hope you never have to use it. Personally I have a lot of money invested in precious metals and I am as bullish as peter schiff. I hope it makes me a fortune one day but I sure wouldn't bet the farm on it.

No they're not. I do agree with you that it is much much better to educate yourself on individual stock selection and do that. There are several great books I could recommend to get people started.

However, in the real world...most people that invest in individual stocks have losing or under market performing results. The vast majority that is. Just getting set up on an auto invest plan in growth mutual funds is a pretty proven way to outperform the markets. By the way during periods of high and/or hyperinflation...stock markets tend to perform very well. It's cash that doesn't. Deflation is what kills stocks in general.

One can do research and still find fund managers who have beaten the market even during this 14 year relatively lackluster .....albeit positive....period we've had in the stock market. So pick good funds or a very low fee index fund.

Sure, it may be a while before we have another huge bull run like we did from 80 - 2000.....but mutual funds are still probably going to beat the hell out of inflation going forward....ie, grow wealth.

Post: #12

The guy at Phil's Stock World says silver doesn't have enough industrial consumer use to be a good hedge. I.e., it's a paranoia/currency collapse bet.

He recommended FCX, a large American copper mining stock if you're scared of inflation. However it's lost about 40% since he recommended it a few years ago. 50 to 30 roughly.

I read up on it and every new car has something like 100 pound or more of copper in it, as well as all the widgets and iPhones in the world, apparently aluminum and other conductors don't work quite as well.

So since every mofo in the world wants more cars and more iPhones, you've got something that's hard to get out of the ground and will go up in price if there's inflation. This strategy is based on what's happened for the last 1000 years, which is continuous increase in consumerism and living standards except for decades long disruptions like the Plague and WWII and the Bolshevik revolution. But still, I bet more people in Russia had refrigerators in 1950 than in 1920. So even big weird events don't totally stop living standard increase.

They have government tax, and labor problems in Indonesian mines however. I think they pay the poor bastards less than 10 dollars a day, fuck it, raise the prices on the iPhones and the Lexuses I say.

Phil is also anti-apocalypse as am I, the malls and theaters are full, the streets are smooth as glass in the better suburbs of Cali, and everyone's buying 30k cars and is fat as shit. If that's apocalypse, I don't mind as long as I can fly to a country with thinner women. Our problem is TOO MUCH shit that's too easy to get, so that it leads to infighting ( between men and women) when there is no need for it.

Yeah yeah yeah "But it's all debt-based and it's going to end soon... " tell me how that doom-based silver investing paid off over the last four years....

Post: #13

(05-13-2014 11:51 PM)iknowexactly Wrote:  Phil is also anti-apocalypse as am I, the malls and theaters are full, the streets are smooth as glass in the better suburbs of Cali, and everyone's buying 30k cars and is fat as shit. If that's apocalypse, I don't mind as long as I can fly to a country with thinner women. Our problem is TOO MUCH shit that's too easy to get, so that it leads to infighting ( between men and women) when there is no need for it.

Yeah yeah yeah "But it's all debt-based and it's going to end soon... " tell me how that doom-based silver investing paid off over the last four years....

Of course people are buying cars like crazy. There is money being thrown all over the place. The Feds balance sheet has increased by TRILLIONS of Dollars in a few short years. I know so many people who don't even have jobs yet still have 20-30k cars lol. Don't tell me that is a good thing.

Why cherry pick dates on silver? Why didn't you mention silver in the last 6, 8, 10, 15 years? Because it doesn't support your opinion, that's why.

Post: #14

(05-14-2014 12:05 AM)Jaydublin Wrote:  [quote='iknowexactly' pid='726181' dateline='1400043071']


Why cherry pick dates on silver? Why didn't you mention silver in the last 6, 8, 10, 15 years? Because it doesn't support your opinion, that's why.

I'm open to longer time analysis, how does it play out at say 20, 30, 50 versus the total stock market? I have no idea and no money to invest anyway lolls...

Don't want to be argumentative, but when I'm driving around the gorgeous smooth roads of northern cali, I don't care about the fed's balance sheet. Neither do other regular people.

I think the people running the fed know a lot more than me about money supply, if that's what at issue.

Maybe you have equal/better qualifications in finance, 10 years in banking or the like? Please let us know...professional experience please.. not reading doom and gloom marketers...

I guess I do think all this concern about macro-economics and politics seems misplaced when there's a 100% chance we'll be old in 40 years and dead in 95.

Isn't that fairly extreme certainty more relevant to our lives?

Post: #15

(05-14-2014 12:16 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  

(05-14-2014 12:05 AM)Jaydublin Wrote:  [quote='iknowexactly' pid='726181' dateline='1400043071']


Why cherry pick dates on silver? Why didn't you mention silver in the last 6, 8, 10, 15 years? Because it doesn't support your opinion, that's why.

I'm open to longer time analysis, how does it play out at say 20, 30, 50 versus the total stock market? I have no idea and no money to invest anyway lolls...

Don't want to be argumentative, but when I'm driving around the gorgeous smooth roads of northern cali, I don't care about the fed's balance sheet. Neither do other regular people.

I think the people running the fed know a lot more than me about money supply, if that's what at issue.

Maybe you have equal/better qualifications in finance, 10 years in banking or the like? Please let us know...professional experience please.. not reading doom and gloom marketers...

I guess I do think all this concern about macro-economics and politics seems misplaced when there's a 100% chance we'll be old in 40 years and dead in 95.

Isn't that fairly extreme certainty more relevant to our lives?

Who is comparing silver to the overall stock market over the long term? There are time periods to buy these commodities just like there are time periods to buy stocks. You cherry picked the worst possible dates in the last 30 years for silver.

Thats great that you have such nice roads in Cali... Since you guys are so rich maybe the feds should redistribute more of your money to West Virginia where they can't even dodge the potholes. I know your in support of wealth redistribution, so let's even it out a little.

As far as the fed, yea I don't disagree they know what they are doing, but are the intentions good? Do you really believe politicians and the unelected board members of the fed, all or even half, have good intentions? It would probably be the first time in history so many people in power had good intentions for the public.

We have probably had this talk before but The reason we disagree on so much when it comes to economics and politics is that you believe powerful people in general have good intentions and I believe that power/money corrupts them.

Post: #16

1 ton of gold is worth more than a ton of silver. If the government ever decides to seize your gold (like FDR in the 1900's), which are they more likely to take- your gold or silver?

Post: #17

(05-14-2014 12:41 AM)Jaydublin Wrote:  [quote='iknowexactly' pid='726206' dateline='1400044575']
[quote='Jaydublin' pid='726200' dateline='1400043958']
[quote='iknowexactly' pid='726181' dateline='1400043071']

...The reason we disagree on so much when it comes to economics and politics is that you believe powerful people in general have good intentions and I believe that power/money corrupts them.

I believe too the rich are corrupt, but they, I guess more than anybody else want things to remain much the same as they are. because they get the pick of everything.

When I was young in the 60s, the big panic subject was the Bomb-- would USA and Russia launch their nukes?

I thought about it, and decided, fuck no, if I was a rich guy with a vacation house in Nantucket, I'd want things to stay just as they were.

And things essentially stayed the same for the upper class, but even more: the same people are in the same places, it's just they have computers now.

And I think the same non-events are going to happen now, not because people are nice, but because the people that have it nice don't want anything to really change. If you're educated so you can get into the middle class, you should be all right. I think it's true the working class is getting stomped on, there's no money to made from them.

But is there anyone here with a real marketable skill that can't get work in the USA at at least $20 per hour?

Post: #18

I own a bunch of these, an easy way to purchase silver ounce by ounce.

Post: #19

Wow IKE, your response is shocking.
Smooth highways, $30k cars and the good life maybe the norm in NorCal but what about the rest of the country.

Post: #20

(05-12-2014 01:58 PM)Sugar Wrote:  I read somewhere that too much silver is controlled by too few people for it to be a good major investment. For example if you buy too much silver, someone like Buffett can sell and basically kick your ass. Don't know if it's true.

Back when silver went from 28 to like 18 quickly I heard that some bank was manipulating silver. I have also heard this and agree.

Post: #21

(05-12-2014 02:53 PM)redbeard Wrote:  

(05-12-2014 01:21 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  I used to buy monster boxes of 500 coins and sell them sometimes coin by coin but more often than not get a box in the mail and run it right over to coinshop and make a quick 1500. I was paying about a buck over and they were paying 2 to 4 over depending. Worked for a while and then lost my ass on some dips. I see people saying silver going to 12. I think about 18 is bottom maybe float up to high 20. Dont see any big moves up or down comming but im just speculating dont know for sure

Where did you buy coins from?

I had a hookup for coins at .95 cents. I guess to get them from the mint there's only a handful of people who are hooked up, I think you need like 10 mill liquid to even be considered. The mint only has a few dealers actually hooked up with them, even big coin shops and companies all buy from a handful of like authorized brokers. I heard even the people straight from mint are paying like $2 over.

I was getting them for cheap, lady I was buying from lied to me about where she got them, she told me she was hooked up with mint, in reality she owned a coinshop and was selling to me what she bough from her customers which is why I was getting such good pricing. The downside was she would oversell so on my last box from her it took almost 3 weeks to get all while she was sitting on like 13k of my money, by the time I got the coins silver had dropped from like 28 to 22 and then continued to drop to 19 so i lost most of my gains.

While it was working though it was nice, I'd buy a box of eagles at .95 over, then I'd run over to the coinshop who was paying $3 to $4 over spot and collect a nice check, desposit wire this lady money adn do it again. I was making some nice money and not even having to sell coins one by one it was basically go to po box and head over to coinshop. in the end i wound up getting screwed tho

As far as where to buy coins, you can put ads on cl and try to find deals but for a reliable source best prices are going to be tulving, ampx or gainsville coins.

Post: #22

(05-14-2014 11:33 AM)rudebwoy Wrote:  Wow IKE, your response is shocking.
Smooth highways, $30k cars and the good life maybe the norm in NorCal but what about the rest of the country.

Does the rest of the country really matter? Northern California is one of the most prosperous areas on the planet. Nice roads, tech wealth everywhere, top universities, water independent. If you subscribe to the whole doomsday scenario of a country wide meltdown you should move to a self sufficient prosperous area. The companies located in Norcal are so powerful and have so much money that if it is at all possible they will make sure that their backyard is taken care of.

I don't understand all of this hubub about dumb people spending money they don't have. If they can't pay, the market will correct itself and they will be left in the dust. Besides it seems to me that the world is experiencing a number of huge changes, we are seeing increasing globalization of business, and there are large numbers of people flocking to that. These people have educations, speak another language, and generally have a grasp on the driving factors behind world politics. These people will be able to move from place to place if a country becomes undesirable.

The other group of people are those that can't, or won't get educated or acquire skills. They are fit to work menial jobs that will soon be replaced with automation, and even before then they are being out competed by people in china. Just because you were born an American and the minimum wage is 8ish dollars an hour doesn't mean your labor is actually worth that.

It's the basic Ricardian model from econ 101 at work.

Post: #23

(05-14-2014 02:11 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  

(05-14-2014 12:41 AM)Jaydublin Wrote:  [quote='iknowexactly' pid='726206' dateline='1400044575']
[quote='Jaydublin' pid='726200' dateline='1400043958']
[quote='iknowexactly' pid='726181' dateline='1400043071']

...The reason we disagree on so much when it comes to economics and politics is that you believe powerful people in general have good intentions and I believe that power/money corrupts them.

I believe too the rich are corrupt, but they, I guess more than anybody else want things to remain much the same as they are. because they get the pick of everything.

When I was young in the 60s, the big panic subject was the Bomb-- would USA and Russia launch their nukes?

I thought about it, and decided, fuck no, if I was a rich guy with a vacation house in Nantucket, I'd want things to stay just as they were.

And things essentially stayed the same for the upper class, but even more: the same people are in the same places, it's just they have computers now.

And I think the same non-events are going to happen now, not because people are nice, but because the people that have it nice don't want anything to really change. If you're educated so you can get into the middle class, you should be all right. I think it's true the working class is getting stomped on, there's no money to made from them.

But is there anyone here with a real marketable skill that can't get work in the USA at at least $20 per hour?

IKE I apologize for being a complete ass last night. I have a hard time having a normal conversation online with people I generally disagree with, though I do enjoy your travel posts a lot.

Anyway, dont think its all doomsdayers who buy silver. Silver should do well for the same reason you think copper will do well.

I assume you will be a bit skeptical of this but IMO there is a very good chance that precious metals prices are being manipulated. Anyone who looks into the evidence will believe it. Besides, they manipulate about everything anyway, why wouldn't they manipulate what has been money for thousands of years.

Post: #24

(05-13-2014 10:27 PM)robreke Wrote:  

(05-13-2014 08:40 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  mutual funds are one of the greatest financial frauds of the baby boom generation. They only reason some of them made money is because there was a 30 year bull run in stocks and bonds. Cant wait to see how they do after fees and inflation over the next 20 years with all the debt that is around.

If you want to invest in stocks than educate yourself and do it yourself

No one gives a fuck about your money except you.

As for silver or gold, buy some every so often or once a month and just hide it and hope you never have to use it. Personally I have a lot of money invested in precious metals and I am as bullish as peter schiff. I hope it makes me a fortune one day but I sure wouldn't bet the farm on it.

No they're not. I do agree with you that it is much much better to educate yourself on individual stock selection and do that. There are several great books I could recommend to get people started.

However, in the real world...most people that invest in individual stocks have losing or under market performing results. The vast majority that is. Just getting set up on an auto invest plan in growth mutual funds is a pretty proven way to outperform the markets. By the way during periods of high and/or hyperinflation...stock markets tend to perform very well. It's cash that doesn't. Deflation is what kills stocks in general.

One can do research and still find fund managers who have beaten the market even during this 14 year relatively lackluster .....albeit positive....period we've had in the stock market. So pick good funds or a very low fee index fund.

Sure, it may be a while before we have another huge bull run like we did from 80 - 2000.....but mutual funds are still probably going to beat the hell out of inflation going forward....ie, grow wealth.

What are your qualifications to be a financial advisor ? Do you actively trade and manage money ? Or do you just sit down with people and talk them into putting money into mutual funds that you receive a commission off regardless of how the fund does ? Do you even execute the trade or is it passed down the line to a guy sitting in a completely different state ?

Post: #25

Please google 3 index fund portfolio and "Vanguard" forget about trusting your money with actively managed funds or precious metal gimmicks.

Most fund managers are out to make money for themselves first and foremost. There are good ones out there but they are hard to find and the list of those that can outperform even a basic index like the S&P 500 over a long period of time is tiny. Most underperform or give market average index like performance while you pay high expense ratios.