Post: #1

Quote:High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-cfb7-...z30M3S7yDk

For 2011, the report says: “The US remained the world’s largest economy, but it was closely followed by China when measured using PPPs”.
With the IMF expecting China’s economy to have grown 24 per cent between 2011 and 2014 while the US is expected to expand only 7.6 per cent, China is likely to overtake the US this year.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-...z30M2vMtIR

I thought this wasn't going to happen until the 2020's.

Post: #2

Enjoy the decline!

Post: #3

Largest GDP by PPP makes for a neat talking point and is an accomplishment (regardless of the size factor). I'm really not surprised that this milestone may be passed right about now given recent economic trends and China's size (4 times that of the USA), but this doesn't change much in the long term IMO. The PRC is already passing the Lewis Turning Point and its demographic dividend will soon quit paying out. China will still get old before it gets rich.

Post: #4

And all we hear about in the MSM is Don Sterling and the missing Airliner.

The thing that angers me is that despite America sinking, all of the negative aspects of America's power in being number one in GDP and economic influence (citizenship based taxation especially, combined with FATCA) are going to be still in existence.

Hopefully countries will start to laugh off FATCA. At least we can become like the citizens of other former powers (UK, France), able to internationalize with minimal problems.

I'm renouncing the first chance I get. May sound like a fair weather friend, but tell that to my ancestors who left their old countries for their own interest.

As Heartiste likes to tag posts, Goodbye, America!

Post: #5

(04-30-2014 03:23 AM)Excelsior Wrote:  Largest GDP by PPP makes for a neat talking point and is an accomplishment (regardless of the size factor). I'm really not surprised that this milestone may be passed right about now given recent economic trends and China's size (4 times that of the USA), but this doesn't change much in the long term IMO. The PRC is already passing the Lewis Turning Point and its demographic dividend will soon quit paying out. China will still get old before it gets rich.

Yeah but what does that turning point matter? America passed it's own Lewis Turning Point a long time ago. We've only made up for it with immigrants that have destroyed the culture and sucked the welfare system dry.

China can easily start taking in African immigrants or, instead of importing Africans, just create sweat-shops in Africa. They started doing this nearly a decade ago. So even if they don't have more of their own labor they will find it somewhere else, and since China has zero morals they will basically enslave the Africans for their own economic gain.

Meanwhile, the USA's economic continues to shrink every year. But most people are fooled into thinking that it's growing when they see positive GDP numbers, because these numbers do not account for inflation. If you take inflation into account, America's GDP has been negative for over a decade.

This is easiest to see when you evaluate America's GDP as a percentage of the world GDP:

http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/...-yourself/



Basically, America's elites are sucking all the wealth out of the middle class through home mortgages, student loans, and car loans. Meanwhile none of the money they take is reinvested into the American labor force, instead they find cheap third-world labor overseas to produce shit and sell back in America. This means America's money is slowly drained from two fronts.

On top of this, the immigrantion policy we have is retarded, claiming that we need "more labor to do the jobs American's won't do," when in reality our unemployment is at record levels so more immigrants has zero effect on reducing labor costs.

Everyone says immigration is to reduce labor costs in America and is therefore supported by big business, but this is a lie. America has more labor than it knows what to do with. Both educated and uneducated labor are at all time highs. College degrees at all time highs, and so is the population size.

The real reason immigrants are being let in is because it has become politically impossible to kick them out. Republicans know they cannot kick out the hispanics, because conservative whites are completely outnumbered. Thus liberal whites + immigrant hordes = more votes than conservative whites, so republicans are trying to pander to future immigrant votes by being pro-amnesty.

It won't work, of course, since all the new immigrants will vote democrat, but this is just one more step toward's America's next civil war.

Regardless America's economy is shit, and inflation is the only thing creating the appearance of a recovery. America is equally bad as China, probably much worse. China's demographic problem can easily be overcome with immigration or slave-labor sweat-shops in Africa, but America's problems can no longer be overcome by any political policy.

Once America goes bankrupt (i.e. hyperinflation), people are going to get very violent.

Post: #6

Time to start learning Mandarin.

Post: #7

The most important metric though is who is taking/posting the most selfies.

Post: #8

What about China's shadow banking system? I keep reading on zerohedge that there's a lot of angst going on regarding failed trust products.

Post: #9

As a student of Macro Economics I will say this..GDP measures ONLY the market value of the goods and services a nation produces. It should come as no surprise to you all that China has a rising GDP. The GDP cannot account for the quality of life, standard of living or happiness of a nation's citizens. There is no cost benefit analysis that is included in the GDP equation that accounts for the nation's smog, pollution or environmental problems. And thus CHina has an inflated score. Other than the obesity epidemic, broken immigration and healthcare US nationals have very little to complain about. If you worked hard to build a career, applied game to choose the right kind of women, you still have it better than over 90% of the world out there. IMO still the land of dreams

Post: #10

Meh. I'm not worried. China has its fair share of problems in the years ahead. Anyone remember the hype around Japan pre-90's?

Post: #11

I'm worried. That thread about the baby showers for men really got me thinking that we are in a downward spiral.

Post: #12

说实话，我认为这已经发生了。

Post: #13

(04-30-2014 03:12 AM)2Wycked Wrote:  Enjoy the decline!

Make the decline work for you. There are over 1,000,000 dollar millionaire households in China and that is going to grow. As a chinese online marketing guy told at a convention I was at, the Chinese LOVE all things foreign now. If it is foreign, it will sell. Producing cheap in China to sell in the west is the game of yesterday, producing high quality goods/highly branded goods in the west and selling to China is the next level.

This is a serious opportunity for the traveler with an understanding of local culture. The things the Chinese and Japanese think are awesome could be very cheap in your own country and something you take for granted.

A famous example from Scandinavia is a fabric shopping bag from a high end chain:



These are selling crazy in Japan, due to cultural factors, such as the Kawaii of the mascot girl and because of the quality of the fabric.

Lots and lots of billion dollar companies fail in exporting to Asia because they don't understand the culture, but the guy who exported these shopping bags has made a nice income, probably didn't become a millionaire but still.

The opportunities for moving into developing markets like Thailand, Indonesia etc are also there. I've heard some Thai startup people saying you should basically just copy western ideas and implement with a Thai twist and there is plenty of opportunity as ecommerce is still in its infancy here, but won't be in 10 yeas.

The real problem for our own countries is that our politicians and interest groups are morons who are stuck in an arrogant view of the world and thinks that the world should continue to flow from east to west, while the real money to be made could soon be from west to east. Let them deal with that, I'll be taking a beginners Mandarin course soon enough.

Post: #14

(04-30-2014 08:31 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 03:23 AM)Excelsior Wrote:  Largest GDP by PPP makes for a neat talking point and is an accomplishment (regardless of the size factor). I'm really not surprised that this milestone may be passed right about now given recent economic trends and China's size (4 times that of the USA), but this doesn't change much in the long term IMO. The PRC is already passing the Lewis Turning Point and its demographic dividend will soon quit paying out. China will still get old before it gets rich.

Yeah but what does that turning point matter? America passed it's own Lewis Turning Point a long time ago. We've only made up for it with immigrants that have destroyed the culture and sucked the welfare system dry.

America has just about passed its turning point as well, but we were already rich when we did so. China is not rich. They will need to face the challenges of a post-Demogrphic Dividend/Lewis Turning point society without the benefit of western affluence to smooth the transition. Perhaps they'll find a way, but it will not be easy.

America has its share of problems, but I would not bet against the USA just yet. There are reason for cautious optimism, IMO.

Post: #15

still would rather be american than chinese

Post: #16

(04-30-2014 11:44 AM)Excelsior Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 08:31 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 03:23 AM)Excelsior Wrote:  Largest GDP by PPP makes for a neat talking point and is an accomplishment (regardless of the size factor). I'm really not surprised that this milestone may be passed right about now given recent economic trends and China's size (4 times that of the USA), but this doesn't change much in the long term IMO. The PRC is already passing the Lewis Turning Point and its demographic dividend will soon quit paying out. China will still get old before it gets rich.

Yeah but what does that turning point matter? America passed it's own Lewis Turning Point a long time ago. We've only made up for it with immigrants that have destroyed the culture and sucked the welfare system dry.

America has just about passed its turning point as well, but we were already rich when we did so. China is not rich. They will need to face the challenges of a post-Demogrphic Dividend/Lewis Turning point society without the benefit of western affluence to smooth the transition. Perhaps they'll find a way, but it will not be easy.

America has its share of problems, but I would not bet against the USA just yet. There are reason for cautious optimism, IMO.

If China is not rich, then why do they have more GDP than us?

How will a demographic collapse effect a population of 1 Billion strong? They can feed on the corpses of their citizens and make GDP if they need to. There's no worry for China. Even if China loses half of its population, they've still got 200 million more citizens than America does.

America, meanwhile, is losing it's productive white population at a breakneck pace and replacing it with cheap immigrants that do not speak the same language or pay even half of the taxes white people do.

America is between a rock and a hard place. China has plenty of options still open to them, including the immigration option. China can print money. China can do all the things Western countries already have in the past 50 years to stave off collapse. China can delay for a long ass time but America's day of reckoning is no longer preventable.

Post: #17

chinas biggest problem (mot.that its huge) is civil.unrest. the government has to keep growth high or people (most of whom are still rather poor) will get a little rowdy

Post: #18

(04-30-2014 03:06 PM)clever alias Wrote:  chinas biggest problem (mot.that its huge) is civil.unrest. the government has to keep growth high or people (most of whom are still rather poor) will get a little rowdy

And what if they do? Chinese soldiers have no compunction with mowing down their own. They've proven they can do it before in the Communist days and they will do it again.

China also has control over their own internet. They can stop resistance movements from forming.

Post: #19

An another thread gets turned into a race thread....

Post: #20

they have less control than youd think

edit: this is not a race.thread. a race thread would be "chinese are too retarded to ever overtake america"

Post: #21

This is a joke. US economy is far bigger than China's.

Post: #22

(04-30-2014 04:53 PM)Que enspastic Wrote:  This is a joke. US economy is far bigger than China's.

How so?

Post: #23

(04-30-2014 05:35 PM)kosko Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 04:53 PM)Que enspastic Wrote:  This is a joke. US economy is far bigger than China's.

How so?

All that healthcare boosts the hell out of our GDP

Post: #24

(04-30-2014 05:45 PM)Hotwheels Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 05:35 PM)kosko Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 04:53 PM)Que enspastic Wrote:  This is a joke. US economy is far bigger than China's.

How so?

All that healthcare boosts the hell out of our GDP

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-30...e-negative

Quote:Here is a shocker: for all the damnation Obamacare, which according to poll after poll is loathed by a majority of the US population, has gotten if it wasn't for the (government-mandated) spending surge resulting from Obamacare, which resulted in the biggest jump in Healthcare Services spending in the past quarter in history and added 1.1% to GDP ...

... real Q1 GDP (in chained 2009 dollars), which rose only $4.3 billion sequentially to $15,947 billion, would have been a negative 1.0%!

Quote:It's curious how the weather impacted (or rather is used as an excuse to explain) everything but government-mandated healthcare spending in the first quarter.

And of course, for all those who correctly point out that mandatory spending on healthcare, also known as malinvestment, took away from spending on every other discretionary item possible, well... you are right.

So basically all US GDP growth is based on how much debt we can take and spend.

Good times ahead boys

Post: #25

(04-30-2014 07:36 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 05:45 PM)Hotwheels Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 05:35 PM)kosko Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 04:53 PM)Que enspastic Wrote:  This is a joke. US economy is far bigger than China's.

How so?

All that healthcare boosts the hell out of our GDP

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-30...e-negative

Quote:Here is a shocker: for all the damnation Obamacare, which according to poll after poll is loathed by a majority of the US population, has gotten if it wasn't for the (government-mandated) spending surge resulting from Obamacare, which resulted in the biggest jump in Healthcare Services spending in the past quarter in history and added 1.1% to GDP ...

... real Q1 GDP (in chained 2009 dollars), which rose only $4.3 billion sequentially to $15,947 billion, would have been a negative 1.0%!

Quote:It's curious how the weather impacted (or rather is used as an excuse to explain) everything but government-mandated healthcare spending in the first quarter.

And of course, for all those who correctly point out that mandatory spending on healthcare, also known as malinvestment, took away from spending on every other discretionary item possible, well... you are right.

So basically all US GDP growth is based on how much debt we can take and spend.

Good times ahead boys

USA is running on fumes. This is why I am on the deflation side of the arguments vs hyperinflation that you side on Samseau. USA has to spend $100 in debt to just get a penny of growth. There isn't any real growth going on in America, the real economy is so far down hole that the only thing keeping things up is fumes from debt. Obamacare literally was the last bullet the Govt could dream up to pump gas into the tank, the only thing left is to go after citizens actual wealth/savings which is why the Govt and IRS are starting to roll out capital restrictions and controls on overseas flows of cash for this vary reason. For all of China's issues it still has real wealth stockpiled to burn through if SHTF. Plus, it still has the largest labour pool to exploit/slave if SHTF.


The markets still view an American Treasury as having some safety, I guess its the guns/bombs that protect that safety. Also, as long as oil is priced in $USD forcing nations to take small haircuts any time they trade a barrel the USA will keep on chugging along. But neither of those two situations are forever and could go belly up at any time because they only help one side (USA) and nobody else (global economy as a whole).