As long as the governments keeps printing fiat, there will be plenty of ways into btc when there is a btc-atm on every corner...

bah i want in for 5kUSD at bottom, but where is it?!?

(03-31-2014 02:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 02:43 PM)brg444 Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 03:27 AM)T and A Man Wrote:  

(03-28-2014 04:56 AM)username Wrote:  Which got me thinking... as soon one of the big financial institutions like Citi, Chase, HSBC, etc launches a Bitcoin product this will legitimize Bitcoin and will send BTC values through the roof. My guess is that right now BTC is still easy for them to ignore and the US government is probably telling them to stay away from BTC.

It also happens to be the greatest risk to BTC.

I can see more upside to downside of what the concept of BTC is, but it's more to do with the crytpo-currency aspect of it, not so much the vendor.

Much like Netscape was the first powerful web browser.

The technology is now ubiquitious, but you didn't realise any value via Netscape.

The banks may want to bypass BTC proprietry if they feel they can get a bigger cut, or extract greater economic rents doing it themselves.

but they can't

I think T&A is correct, at least to the extent to project that some banks are going to attempt such competition with BTC and attempt to build a name and dilute the bitcoin space... ultimately, these sponsored competitors are going to have the problem of centralization and inability to give up sufficient control over their constructed currency in order to inspire public confidence... some of them may make considerable profits with such attempted solutions... yet in the end, they are likely NOT going to succeed without adequately creating or imitating something with such decentralization as bitcoin provides... and there remains little incentive for them to do this.. except from the ground up.. which BTC has already made considerable strides in such ground up direction...

So in that sense.. they cant... like brg444 asserted...

the number 1 reason why they can't IMO is security.

the BTC blockchain is robust and secure because of the scale of its network which the banks will NEVER be able to replicate

(03-31-2014 02:12 PM)username Wrote:  There is big money in cryptocurrency gambling games. Just-Dice had made 15,000 BTC ($6,800,000 USD) while Doge-Dice has made 504,743,681 DOGE ($252,000 USD). This is their profit before hosting/server cost. I'm My friend is considering throwing one together for an altcoin.

as an old poker pro who got fucked by black friday, I might be biased and mad but I feel there's guaranteed incoming harassment + regulations for these guys, if it hasn't already started yet... the live casino fuckers/moguls are pushing hard to ban all online gambling. Personally I wouldn't venture there.

Just bought some more today at $442

(03-31-2014 03:38 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  Just bought some more today at $442

Nice!

(03-31-2014 03:11 PM)brg444 Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 02:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 02:43 PM)brg444 Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 03:27 AM)T and A Man Wrote:  

(03-28-2014 04:56 AM)username Wrote:  Which got me thinking... as soon one of the big financial institutions like Citi, Chase, HSBC, etc launches a Bitcoin product this will legitimize Bitcoin and will send BTC values through the roof. My guess is that right now BTC is still easy for them to ignore and the US government is probably telling them to stay away from BTC.

It also happens to be the greatest risk to BTC.

I can see more upside to downside of what the concept of BTC is, but it's more to do with the crytpo-currency aspect of it, not so much the vendor.

Much like Netscape was the first powerful web browser.

The technology is now ubiquitious, but you didn't realise any value via Netscape.

The banks may want to bypass BTC proprietry if they feel they can get a bigger cut, or extract greater economic rents doing it themselves.

but they can't

I think T&A is correct, at least to the extent to project that some banks are going to attempt such competition with BTC and attempt to build a name and dilute the bitcoin space... ultimately, these sponsored competitors are going to have the problem of centralization and inability to give up sufficient control over their constructed currency in order to inspire public confidence... some of them may make considerable profits with such attempted solutions... yet in the end, they are likely NOT going to succeed without adequately creating or imitating something with such decentralization as bitcoin provides... and there remains little incentive for them to do this.. except from the ground up.. which BTC has already made considerable strides in such ground up direction...

So in that sense.. they cant... like brg444 asserted...

the number 1 reason why they can't IMO is security.

the BTC blockchain is robust and secure because of the scale of its network which the banks will NEVER be able to replicate

Personally, I believe that various kinds of sponsored alt cryptos can and will provide security and they will even provide money back guarantees to people to insure their user's from a large variety of losses. So, in the security and safety of investment realm, they are going to comfort and coo their potential customers.

ON the other hand, they are NOT going to comfort and coo their customers in terms of confidence that the company will NOT be skimming profits and self-dealing and inflating the currency to line their pockets. That is where bitcoin or some other non-centralized currency is going to inspire greater confidence in the long run.


Anyhow, we will see how these kinds of alt currencies and sponsored alt currencies will play out b/c it is certainly a longer term game to employ such mechanisms that is somewhat speculative at this point.

(03-31-2014 03:31 PM)FrenchCanadian Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 02:12 PM)username Wrote:  There is big money in cryptocurrency gambling games. Just-Dice had made 15,000 BTC ($6,800,000 USD) while Doge-Dice has made 504,743,681 DOGE ($252,000 USD). This is their profit before hosting/server cost. I'm My friend is considering throwing one together for an altcoin.

as an old poker pro who got fucked by black friday, I might be biased and mad but I feel there's guaranteed incoming harassment + regulations for these guys, if it hasn't already started yet... the live casino fuckers/moguls are pushing hard to ban all online gambling. Personally I wouldn't venture there.

REgarding poker. I believe that there remains a lot of potential for this in the crypto currency space - in spite of various government regulators who are going to continue to have trouble controlling this and these kinds of activities may become greater and greater excuses to attempt to squelch various crypto currencies, including bitcoin.

(03-31-2014 04:01 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 03:38 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  Just bought some more today at $442

Nice!

Welcome back to the BTC thread. I hope you are well rested from your time away.

During my large quantity of free time, I have been working out some speculation concerning the incentives that the wealthy BTC investors have to manipulate BTC prices downward on the BTC exchanges and then to profit from such price manipulation.

I think that the assumption here is that since the GOX situation, large amounts of capital has moved off of various exchanges out of fear that money will be lost or stolen, so that makes it easier for large institutions to manipulate prices on exchanges. They may likely NOT perform their large investments through exchanges; however, the exchange price affects how much they are going to pay per BTC when they agree off-line to acquire BTC from various sources.

Accordingly, maybe it is the paranoia in me, but I believe that BTC price manipulation is taking place on exchanges, even though I may NOT be able to clearly articulate the mechanics of how it is done, exactly.. or how much profits and or losses take place through such BTC price manipulations.....

For example, if an institutional investor into BTC can manipulate BTC prices downward on the exchanges, and it costs that institutional investor, let's say for argument sake $1 million to manipulate the BTC prices downward.. Thereafter, the institutional investor is able to acquire, 20,000 BTC for average of $500 per BTC rather than average of $650 per BTC, then that institutional investor has just saved $2 million, which is $3million saved from purchase of the BTC at lower price at $1million cost to manipulate the BTC market price downward = $2 million profits overall.

Surely the numbers work out differently with different quantities of BTC purchases. If an institutional investor wants to acquire 200,000 BTC, then multiply each of the categories of numbers by 10, and you get $30 million in savings from the downward manipulation and the institutional investor may be willing to take large losses on exchanges to keep the BTC prices down and to save and to get 200,000 BTC at $500 average rather than $650 average.

(03-31-2014 08:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  and greater excuses to attempt to squelch various crypto currencies, including bitcoin.

But that's the point. Bitcoin is not "squishable"

(03-31-2014 09:16 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  For example, if an institutional investor into BTC can manipulate BTC prices downward on the exchanges, and it costs that institutional investor, let's say for argument sake $1 million to manipulate the BTC prices downward.. Thereafter, the institutional investor is able to acquire, 20,000 BTC for average of $500 per BTC rather than average of $650 per BTC, then that institutional investor has just saved $2 million, which is $3million saved from purchase of the BTC at lower price at $1million cost to manipulate the BTC market price downward = $2 million profits overall.

This is not 'manipulation' it's called FX trading.

This is exactly what foreign currency traders in investment banks do for a living every single day.

I have a friend who used to do this for a living.

(03-31-2014 09:25 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 09:16 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  For example, if an institutional investor into BTC can manipulate BTC prices downward on the exchanges, and it costs that institutional investor, let's say for argument sake $1 million to manipulate the BTC prices downward.. Thereafter, the institutional investor is able to acquire, 20,000 BTC for average of $500 per BTC rather than average of $650 per BTC, then that institutional investor has just saved $2 million, which is $3million saved from purchase of the BTC at lower price at $1million cost to manipulate the BTC market price downward = $2 million profits overall.

This is not 'manipulation' it's called FX trading.

This is exactly what foreign currency traders in investment banks do for a living every single day.

I have a friend who used to do this for a living.

Whether we call it manipulation or "a living," my point, in part, is that it is much easier to accomplish this kind of downward price manipulation with bitcoin and with a lot less capital than with various currencies or other commodities. Yes we know that silver tends to be more manipulated than gold b/c the market cap is smaller... - and even easier to accomplish this kind of price manipulation on the BTC exchanges since a lot of money seems to have moved off of the exchanges after some of the GOX fear factor(s) in recent months.

Accordingly, it takes much less money to manipulate BTC prices downwards... but it takes a hell of a lot more money to manipulate than what I can imagine having as an individual with my 45 BTC.... I think to accomplish really effective manipulation, a guy would need to have several million in fiat... maybe in the $20 million range (40,000 BTC)... and that money would be used for manipulation, possibly on a few of the exchanges.. and some of that money may be purposefully lost on the exchanges in order to earn the money back outside of the exchanges.

I am NOT suggesting that I am coming up with any novel theory... but sometimes people newer to BTC may wonder why BTC prices move downward the way that they do... and sometimes manipulators will have nearly impossible difficulties manipulating BTC prices when volume and momentum picks up and then they have to go with the flow of the volume and the new price direction,, before they can begin to manipulate the prices again.

(03-31-2014 09:22 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  

(03-31-2014 08:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  and greater excuses to attempt to squelch various crypto currencies, including bitcoin.

But that's the point. Bitcoin is not "squishable"

Agreed... NOT squishable.. but we are still going to see various kinds of tactics in the coming years to control it and to regulate it in various ways and maybe divide and conquer and sometimes prosecute people through ambiguities... I would prefer NOT to be a target... look what they are doing to Schrem... and if you have ever heard him speak, he is a fairly young and naive BTC idealist, who got caught in the let's make an example out of him target group.

I posted this in the other thread but this truly belong here.

I have a theory that the next bubble is sort of the point of no return.

I am expecting unseen momentum upward.

It feels like everyone on the institutional and corporate side is standing on the sideline waiting to see who is going to make the first big move.

When this kind of money start investing, no one is gonna want the other to have an edge. Thus, most are gonna want to have more token in the system than the other, more bitcoins in the balance.

Quote:The bitcoin is the only thing where the complete definition of ownership is the entry on the ledger. It has to be a native and new currency because the definition of the object is the ledger entry. That doesn’t correspond to a dollar or a piece of gold or something else. It is what it is. The entry on a ledger of a bitcoin is a fundamental unit whose value can be moved electronically through the security protocol.

Quote:One way to think about the transaction volume and the intrinsic value is that, at any moment in time, there’s a fixed number of bitcoins, and suppose you want to run half a billion dollars-worth of transactions through the system in a day.

There’s a fixed number of bitcoins, and a dollar value of transactions that needs to be supported on them, and each bitcoin can only be used once in a day, then the market cap of the bitcoins would have to rise to support the dollar value of transactions. There’s a market price for access to the bitcoins.

http://www.coindesk.com/professor-susan-...sic-value/

Quote:There’s a market price for access to the bitcoins.

This is a quote that resonates a lot with me. Once people have gotten a grasp of the power of the technology, they are often lead to wonder how is it we can quantify and store value in the system. With bitcoins. This is what they are : unit, entries, tokens for the ledger.

As more people realize this, they are gonna want to hold as many as possible. Especially the banks.

I see a correlation with the "hundredth monkey effect".

Quote:The hundredth monkey effect is a studied phenomenon[1] in which a new behavior or idea is claimed to spread rapidly by unexplained, even supernatural, means from one group to all related groups once a critical number of members of one group exhibit the new behavior or acknowledge the new idea.

The CEO of BMO came out positive of bitcoin, first major NA bank to come out and do so.

I agree with brg444, the last bubble was done by China, the next one will be Wall St.

(04-02-2014 10:25 AM)brg444 Wrote:  I posted this in the other thread but this truly belong here.

I have a theory that the next bubble is sort of the point of no return.

I am expecting unseen momentum upward.

It feels like everyone on the institutional and corporate side is standing on the sideline waiting to see who is going to make the first big move.

When this kind of money start investing, no one is gonna want the other to have an edge. Thus, most are gonna want to have more token in the system than the other, more bitcoins in the balance.

Quote:The bitcoin is the only thing where the complete definition of ownership is the entry on the ledger. It has to be a native and new currency because the definition of the object is the ledger entry. That doesn’t correspond to a dollar or a piece of gold or something else. It is what it is. The entry on a ledger of a bitcoin is a fundamental unit whose value can be moved electronically through the security protocol.

Quote:One way to think about the transaction volume and the intrinsic value is that, at any moment in time, there’s a fixed number of bitcoins, and suppose you want to run half a billion dollars-worth of transactions through the system in a day.

There’s a fixed number of bitcoins, and a dollar value of transactions that needs to be supported on them, and each bitcoin can only be used once in a day, then the market cap of the bitcoins would have to rise to support the dollar value of transactions. There’s a market price for access to the bitcoins.

http://www.coindesk.com/professor-susan-...sic-value/

Quote:There’s a market price for access to the bitcoins.

This is a quote that resonates a lot with me. Once people have gotten a grasp of the power of the technology, they are often lead to wonder how is it we can quantify and store value in the system. With bitcoins. This is what they are : unit, entries, tokens for the ledger.

As more people realize this, they are gonna want to hold as many as possible. Especially the banks.

I see a correlation with the "hundredth monkey effect".

Quote:The hundredth monkey effect is a studied phenomenon[1] in which a new behavior or idea is claimed to spread rapidly by unexplained, even supernatural, means from one group to all related groups once a critical number of members of one group exhibit the new behavior or acknowledge the new idea.

BRG444:

I agree with everything that you are saying in the above post, and in my thinking as well, there seems a fairly good likelihood that something like this exponential growth is going to happen - even from our current standpoint... and even going much beyond the all time high. ...

Accordingly, we have NOT yet seen that amazing exponential growth.. even though we have seen several incredible upswings in BTC prices and even though several bitcoin naysayers continue to assert that bitcoin prices are in a bubble or overvalued...etc etc....

Part of the reason that I had some confidence to begin to invest my fiat into BTC at $1200 per btw was because I recognized that exponential potential in bitcoin in November 2013... and I have become even more confident in my about 4 months study of bitcoin and other cryptos that some exponential value phenomenon like you explain is going to occur in the very near future b/c more and more big wigs are getting acquainted with the btc concept... and probably during 2014 we are going to see this jumping onboard snowballing b/c once the jumping on the bandwagon starts to happen, there will likely be a sort of rippling effect on an upward trajectory - likely to take us much past $10,000 per BTC...

Before we get there though... we will have to get through a few of these various manipulations from governments, etc... whether real news or NOT... that cause negative price trajectories... like we are currently in.


There are two parts of your post that I would like to point out:

1st the easy one is that the link that you provided regarding professor susan does not work.

Second: I am NOT really clear about your reference that a bit coin can only be used once in a day. I know that there are some issues with confirmations taking some time; however, I did NOT know about any issues in spending bitcoins more than once in a day. On the contrary. I thought that as soon as there are confirmations, possibly six confirmations that the transaction has taken place, then a guy would be free to spend (or transfer) that bitcoin again. Can you explain or point out your source regarding the only once in a day theory, regarding the spending/transferring of a bitcoin?

Hahah!


Anyone seen the latest max keiser show?







Skip to 15 minutes

Just bought my first bitcoin, partly due to the info here on the forum for which I thank all of you and with help from my brother who is a bitcoin fan since early times (and who lost 37 BTC with Mount Gox.. OUCH). At my young age, it is also my first investment sort of so I am eager to see how this will play out. I am already tempted to buy more to be honest.

Great site for sleep timing:

http://sleepyti.me/

(04-02-2014 05:10 PM)rottenapple Wrote:  Just bought my first bitcoin, partly due to the info here on the forum for which I thank all of you and with help from my brother who is a bitcoin fan since early times (and who lost 37 BTC with Mount Gox.. OUCH). At my young age, it is also my first investment sort of so I am eager to see how this will play out. I am already tempted to buy more to be honest.

Even though bitcoin seems to be at a real good price right now, you may want to consider buying BTC in increments as your budget permits.... I personally believe that prices are NOT going to become much cheaper..... Maybe we might get into the upper $300s, but who really knows?

Also, depending through whom you buy can affect your buying incentive. I buy through coinbase, so the entry fee is 1% plus 15 cents per transaction.. .so there is a pretty decent incentive to buy in small increments.

I do NOT know your buy options b/c coinbase is only in the united states, to my understanding.

(04-02-2014 05:43 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-02-2014 05:10 PM)rottenapple Wrote:  Just bought my first bitcoin, partly due to the info here on the forum for which I thank all of you and with help from my brother who is a bitcoin fan since early times (and who lost 37 BTC with Mount Gox.. OUCH). At my young age, it is also my first investment sort of so I am eager to see how this will play out. I am already tempted to buy more to be honest.

Even though bitcoin seems to be at a real good price right now, you may want to consider buying BTC in increments as your budget permits.... I personally believe that prices are NOT going to become much cheaper..... Maybe we might get into the upper $300s, but who really knows?

Also, depending through whom you buy can affect your buying incentive. I buy through coinbase, so the entry fee is 1% plus 15 cents per transaction.. .so there is a pretty decent incentive to buy in small increments.

I do NOT know your buy options b/c coinbase is only in the united states, to my understanding.

I used Bitcoin Central this time, which suited me well. I agree on the price, I don't think it will get much lower. The question then is, what percentage of my personal capital am I willing to risk on this? Not an easy question to answer.

(04-02-2014 05:58 PM)rottenapple Wrote:  I used Bitcoin Central this time, which suited me well. I agree on the price, I don't think it will get much lower. The question then is, what percentage of my personal capital am I willing to risk on this? Not an easy question to answer.

Yeah, that tends to be a very personal question that depends on a variety of factors including age, risk tolerance, income, how diversified you are in other investments. People often say don't bet more than you are willing to lose; however, we know that sometimes people will leverage their investment.. which is really betting the farm on their investment, which could cause you to become very rich if you bet correct or potentially live a life of poverty if you lose....

I tend to make sure that I am diversified in my investments, including my BTC investment, but as you may have noticed, there are other philosophies and perspectives that have contributed to this thread.

(04-02-2014 06:22 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-02-2014 05:58 PM)rottenapple Wrote:  I used Bitcoin Central this time, which suited me well. I agree on the price, I don't think it will get much lower. The question then is, what percentage of my personal capital am I willing to risk on this? Not an easy question to answer.

Yeah, that tends to be a very personal question that depends on a variety of factors including age, risk tolerance, income, how diversified you are in other investments. People often say don't bet more than you are willing to lose; however, we know that sometimes people will leverage their investment.. which is really betting the farm on their investment, which could cause you to become very rich if you bet correct or potentially live a life of poverty if you lose....

I tend to make sure that I am diversified in my investments, including my BTC investment, but as you may have noticed, there are other philosophies and perspectives that have contributed to this thread.

here is the link

http://www.coindesk.com/professor-susan-...sic-value/

in regard to the one bitcoin a day thing. I was as surprised as you were reading that and I'm not certain of the validity of this information. in that sense, I tend to agree with you.

everyone should watch this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iir5J6Z3Z1Q#t=1805

Marc Andreessen and Balaji Srinivasan of Andreessen Horowitz

(04-02-2014 08:58 PM)brg444 Wrote:  everyone should watch this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iir5J6Z3Z1Q#t=1805

Marc Andreessen and Balaji Srinivasan of Andreessen Horowitz

Seen it.

I like Marc's comment about how this is the best late beta opportunity of our lifetimes.

That's pretty much how I feel about it and describing the stage we are at as "late beta" is a good assessment.

(04-02-2014 06:22 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-02-2014 05:58 PM)rottenapple Wrote:  I used Bitcoin Central this time, which suited me well. I agree on the price, I don't think it will get much lower. The question then is, what percentage of my personal capital am I willing to risk on this? Not an easy question to answer.

Yeah, that tends to be a very personal question that depends on a variety of factors including age, risk tolerance, income, how diversified you are in other investments. People often say don't bet more than you are willing to lose; however, we know that sometimes people will leverage their investment.. which is really betting the farm on their investment, which could cause you to become very rich if you bet correct or potentially live a life of poverty if you lose....

I tend to make sure that I am diversified in my investments, including my BTC investment, but as you may have noticed, there are other philosophies and perspectives that have contributed to this thread.

I want to supplement my above answer to add one additional perspective to describe my own investment strategy.


Certainly, I have a little bit of a problem with my investment strategy into BTC b/c I got in after a bull run that had increased bitcoin by about 6 times within a month (from about $200 per BTC to about $1200 per BTC). So I understood that I was entering the BTC sphere at the end of a recent and extensive bull run and that affected my initial plan and strategy.

I wanted to get in right away and to get some skin in the game (even though I was somewhat concerned about the most recent BTC performance), but I did NOT want to go all in b/c of that recent performance.

Accordingly, I figured that in about 6 months, my BTC investment budget was going to be $30k, and I planned to stretch that out through the period, and in the first month, I ended up investing about $10K. By the time, I had invested 10K, I felt comfortable about having fairly decent skin in the game - though my average price per BTC, at that point, was about $760.

At that point towards the beginning of January 2014, I began to consider ways that I could strive to buy on the lows, which to date, I have already invested my $30k initial investment, and I have an average of $648 per BTC (Not the greatest in the world, but NOT so bad considering that I started out at $1200 per BTC).

If I had come into BTC today, on the same kind of 6 month budget of $30k, probably, probably would front load 50 to 75% of my six month budget within the first week or so, and then spread out the investment thereafter with a dollar cost averaging strategy. Accordingly, if I invested 75% that would be about $22,500 and then $7,500 to spread over the next six months, which is about $288 per week. That kind of investment style is in line with my risk tolerance and historical past practice.

Of course, the above kind of plan is scalable and adaptable to your own particular budget, investment style and/or risk tolerance. And, of course, even if you have a plan, you can readjust it to the extent that you feel that circumstances may have changed.

Hopefully, this makes sense... and if any guy reading this thread wants to run any ideas by me via PM, I am receptive to such.

(04-02-2014 08:58 PM)brg444 Wrote:  everyone should watch this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iir5J6Z3Z1Q#t=1805

Marc Andreessen and Balaji Srinivasan of Andreessen Horowitz

Great video. Learned some new concepts which I hadn't considered before. Blockchain / Bitcoin technology can change the world a lot.


If you look at the Bitcoin price since the January, Bitcoin has been a TERRIBLE investment this year but that is reasonable due to the huge bubble of November. I bought half of my coins at 750 $, and have been buying at every 'low', this one included. As a student haven't been able to afford as much Jay but nearly every extra penny I have earned has gone to Bitcoins.

I don't think it is very productive to think in terms of 'if I had...'. Buying at 800$ to 1200$ could have been a great investment if the price continued to rise, there were reasons to thinks so.

It is funny that when browsing threads on reddit/bitcointalk 1-2 years back, people are worrying about the exact same things as now and very afraid of the price fluctuations. Maybe next year we look back - happy - that we didn't lose our minds on this rocky road.

Quote:Didn't you hear the CEO of Bitcoin (trademark) has banned China.
It was confirmed by the CEO of the Internet himself.