Has the market stopped responding to good news?

I often read good news in the media about bitcoin, people continue to invest in bitcoin related companties, but the price remains stable.

Why is this? Could it be that all the early adopters that were going to invest has already done it, the media has reach everyone who were interested in bitcoin, and a further increase in price will first happen when the broad masses actually start using it for practical reasons?

(03-21-2014 10:34 AM)pants Wrote:  Has the market stopped responding to good news?

I often read good news in the media about bitcoin, people continue to invest in bitcoin related companties, but the price remains stable.

Why is this? Could it be that all the early adopters that were going to invest has already done it, the media has reach everyone who were interested in bitcoin, and a further increase in price will first happen when the broad masses actually start using it for practical reasons?

I have been very puzzled by BTC prices, too.

I would NOT really characterize BTC prices as currently stable, but instead as a slow downtrend, and the slowness of such downtrend would depend upon from where a guy were to begin measuring it.


The cause of the BTC price downtrend seems to be another puzzle. I am beginning to suspect that the Gox news has caused considerably less money being held on exchanges..... and less confidence in holding money on exchanges.... accordingly, the whales who are left on the various exchanges need less money in order to be able to manipulate the btc prices and that manipulation of btc prices has been downward and continues to be downward to squeeze more and more BTC out of the holders at a lower and lower price for as long as they can get away with it.

I am anticipating, though, at some point, the BTC price is going to have to go up by quite a bit to a new ATH to account for the vast array of BTC infrastructure and BTC investments to which you refer. When that price surge will happen is another question.... .. whether it occurs in the coming weeks or maybe it will take several months before it occurs? Surely, I expect to have another ATH this calendar year, but maybe the new ATH will NOT occur until next year? I think predictions will vary quite a bit concerning anticipated BTC prices.

I suppose we should expect a few more bitcoin naysayers to chime in at some point on this thread to tell us "I told you so" and the other various affiliated assertions.

Of course, if we look at the longer term.. even over a course of a year, bitcoin is in a very good position, overall, and the current BTC price does NOT matter too much b/c the fundamentals, as you mentioned, seem to be getting stronger and stronger with the passage of time.

Actually, if there is governmental hostility to BTC, then that hostility remains behind the scenes and much less than I had anticipated, which should help when the prices do finally begin to reverse into an upward trend direction.

Didnt you hear the news about the 200,000 mtgox BTC coins being found?

In all likelihood they will be returned to the owners.

That's an extra 200,000 coins on the market that people thought were gone for good.

More coins on the market means lower price.

(03-21-2014 01:04 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  Didnt you hear the news about the 200,000 mtgox BTC coins being found?

In all likelihood they will be returned to the owners.

That's an extra 200,000 coins on the market that people thought were gone for good.

More coins on the market means lower price.

I think 200K being returned to owners is better for the market than 200K falling into the hackers that would likely sell them.

Some of the 200K will be sold by people disappointed with the whole mt.gox ordeal, others will be kept by people who still believe in bitcoin.

I would imagine that a lot of MT Gox bitcoins were early adopters, who are less likely to sell.

(03-21-2014 01:04 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  Didnt you hear the news about the 200,000 mtgox BTC coins being found?

In all likelihood they will be returned to the owners.

That's an extra 200,000 coins on the market that people thought were gone for good.

More coins on the market means lower price.

I hear what you are saying about the recent news with the 200K BTC being found, and personally, I had heard about that news before I wrote my earlier post. It has been a couple of days now for that news.

Surely, we can each come to our own conclusions about the meaning and the impact of the news. In the short term, there are kinds of crazy-ass and lame reasons that BTC price fluctuations have been taking place based on any BTC news (whether positive or negative).


Personally, I have the sense that the news of the "discovery" of 200k GOX coins is NOT material to the long-term prices of BTC. Otherwise, the BTC price should have gone up when it was discovered that 850K coins were gone. Price did NOT go up from that news.

Additionally, it is very unclear when these found 200K BTC are going to be available and how they are going to be distributed, and in the whole scheme of things, I doubt that that specific news really should have much an impact on BTC prices, except to the extent that any BTC news (whether positive or negative) is being used by BTC whale manipulators (that is big BTC fish) to drive the BTC prices in the direction that they want to drive it, and it does NOT take a lot of money to accomplish such manipulation in the BTC world.

Finally the GOX announcement had some additional and amorphous language asserting that more coins could be found... woopiee... and whatever... Surely, those kinds of developments are important for individuals affected by GOX but they are NOT really big in the whole scheme of things in the bitcoin space, except to the extent that they may be used to manipulate by trying to make some thing to be bigger than it is...

The other main story was a false story circulating in China :

A false report published on a financial news feed run by Chinese microblogging site Sina Weibo was responsible for the sharp decline in bitcoin prices across China’s biggest exchanges today (21st March).

At 10:22 am GMT, Sina’s financial live feed issued a now-retracted news report indicating that China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), would move to halt all bitcoin transactions in the country effective 15th April.

If true, the news would have interrupted a period of improved relations between the burgeoning bitcoin ecosystem and the nation’s lawmakers, but coincided with the PBOC’s temporary ban on QR codes issued last week.

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-de...tcoin-ban/

(03-21-2014 02:41 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  The other main story was a false story circulating in China :

A false report published on a financial news feed run by Chinese microblogging site Sina Weibo was responsible for the sharp decline in bitcoin prices across China’s biggest exchanges today (21st March).

At 10:22 am GMT, Sina’s financial live feed issued a now-retracted news report indicating that China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), would move to halt all bitcoin transactions in the country effective 15th April.

If true, the news would have interrupted a period of improved relations between the burgeoning bitcoin ecosystem and the nation’s lawmakers, but coincided with the PBOC’s temporary ban on QR codes issued last week.

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-de...tcoin-ban/

WE had a couple of weeks of NOT too much action on the bitcoin prices. Then various news pieces, included the fake news that you mentioned seems to have been the most recent piece to cause today's volatility.... and fairly short term volatility - but caused prices to fluctuate by $50 or near 9%... well and even more fluctuation on the chinese exchanges... The chinese exchanges seemed to have been driving the exchanges with the false news, and surely some whales or bitcoin insiders were able to profit off of the fake new pieces.

These days some series of events can cause bitcoin prices to be very sensitive and to fluctuate quite a bit in a short period of time.... and I cannot foresee the disappearance of such volatility for some time.. maybe NOT until we get a higher market cap... like in the 80 billion range.. ... and skeptics project that BTC will never get there... ..

We will.

That's only half the value of whatsapp

(03-21-2014 04:57 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  We will.

That's only half the value of whatsapp

this is one of the reason I believe Bitcoin is currently WAY undervalued.

compared to other technologies IPOs and acquisitions value, we still have ways to go.

most people have bought into it ( the technology )

once the infrastructures are ready for mainstream acquisitions, it will explose

(03-21-2014 08:06 PM)brg444 Wrote:  

(03-21-2014 04:57 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  We will.

That's only half the value of whatsapp

this is one of the reason I believe Bitcoin is currently WAY undervalued.

compared to other technologies IPOs and acquisitions value, we still have ways to go.

most people have bought into it ( the technology )

once the infrastructures are ready for mainstream acquisitions, it will explose

I hope that you guys are correct about Bitcoin's medium to long term future... and generally I am of similar thinking.

I still continue to wonder by when Bitcoin will get to such a stature? This year? Next year?

I am thinking that bitcoin's infrastructure is already mostly in place to justify at least a $30 billion market cap.... and there certainly exists potential for building bitcoin's market cap up to $80 billion, $800 billion, $8 trillion or more...

Seems to be just a matter of patience... regarding when and how high BTC's market cap will go...

It is also possible that we will linger in the $400 to $600 range for a while - maybe a few months - with suppressed prices... Actually, I thought that lingering in the $800 range was more likely to happen... but the extent and duration of this current downward pressure has got me thinking that it is possible that BTC prices could remain down a little lower and for a little longer than I had expected..

(03-21-2014 08:38 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-21-2014 08:06 PM)brg444 Wrote:  

(03-21-2014 04:57 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  We will.

That's only half the value of whatsapp

this is one of the reason I believe Bitcoin is currently WAY undervalued.

compared to other technologies IPOs and acquisitions value, we still have ways to go.

most people have bought into it ( the technology )

once the infrastructures are ready for mainstream acquisitions, it will explose

I hope that you guys are correct about Bitcoin's medium to long term future... and generally I am of similar thinking.

I still continue to wonder by when Bitcoin will get to such a stature? This year? Next year?

I am thinking that bitcoin's infrastructure is already mostly in place to justify at least a $30 billion market cap.... and there certainly exists potential for building bitcoin's market cap up to $80 billion, $800 billion, $8 trillion or more...

Seems to be just a matter of patience... regarding when and how high BTC's market cap will go...

It is also possible that we will linger in the $400 to $600 range for a while - maybe a few months - with suppressed prices... Actually, I thought that lingering in the $800 range was more likely to happen... but the extent and duration of this current downward pressure has got me thinking that it is possible that BTC prices could remain down a little lower and for a little longer than I had expected..

I personally have been buying everytime it goes under 600$

(03-21-2014 02:41 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  The other main story was a false story circulating in China :

A false report published on a financial news feed run by Chinese microblogging site Sina Weibo was responsible for the sharp decline in bitcoin prices across China’s biggest exchanges today (21st March).

At 10:22 am GMT, Sina’s financial live feed issued a now-retracted news report indicating that China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), would move to halt all bitcoin transactions in the country effective 15th April.

If true, the news would have interrupted a period of improved relations between the burgeoning bitcoin ecosystem and the nation’s lawmakers, but coincided with the PBOC’s temporary ban on QR codes issued last week.

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-de...tcoin-ban/

Those Chinese paniced pretty hard and sold all the way down to 1yen/LTC! Lucky those who had buy orders that low that's a 100x profit, not to bad.

I was also pretty scared just seeing the price falling that hard as I was looking at the order book as it started. My liquidation price is $425 and I rather not see that happening. Trading on bitfinex is very good IMO however it does involve a bit off stress too. Got sell orders at $490 right now but I don't think the ever will be triggred. Looking at the charts it's possible to point out where the bad news has come, China ban, MtGox problems, MtGox bankrupt and yesterday false China ban LOL. There is not really many bad news regarding BTC however the ones that are does create major movement.. And to me it seems that the worse things that could happen already did.

Also to keep a price there needs to be a constant flow off buyers.. There is a 3600BTC mined every day and some of that needs to be used to pay electricity. Traffic over all exchanges has been really low the last two weeks, except yesterday and I guess many people looking to invest right now is just observing and waiting for things to move.

Not to mention that early adopters (earlier than most of us) might already been living off their BTC and/or already sold some of their part for a fiat back-up. The leader of the Swedish pirate party bought in 2011 and should be pretty loaded by now check this from 2011: http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-p...o-bitcoin/

I see new ATH whit in three or maximum six months. This market is not logical and price start rising buying power will be much stronger.

MtGox found some BTC but they should also have some USD left as well? Or did they manage to lose that too?? I don't think so. A possible decrease in price is of sure if MtGox will give back 200.000BTC to the market, however holders of those coins were already BTC investors and I guess most of them would be holding since they bought in from the first place, and lost a part of their stake. If they have some USD as well that's a different story since some off that might be used to buy BTC again. However I make another guess, that no USD nor BTC will be sent back to the MtGox costumer until all trials are over.

Hope next week gets interesting,.

(03-22-2014 03:25 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  Not to mention that early adopters (earlier than most of us) might already been living off their BTC and/or already sold some of their part for a fiat back-up. The leader of the Swedish pirate party bought in 2011 and should be pretty loaded by now check this from 2011: http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-p...o-bitcoin/

Satoshi.... (are you Japanese? he he he ; For some strange reason, I kind of get that feeling from your name. Aregato!!!)

Yes, it is very interesting that your cited article from May 29, 2011 is very accurate, even today. The article contains a lot of good information about bitcoin in speculating about its future value. And that speculation about an additional 1000 fold increase nearly came true... if an investor were lucky and strategic. In late 2011, an investor could have bought for nearly $2 per BTC, and in late 2013 could have sold for more than $1200 per BTC... Surely, that is only a 600 times increase in value, but I doubt that we are done yet with such increases in BTC value.

And, even today, the fundamentals of bitcoin are as similarly undervalued as they were during the time of that May 29, 2011 article writing, which at the moment of his writing, the BTC price was about $8.30.

So today, we still have BTC fundamentals that could cause for an additional 1,000 fold increase in BTC value... (wiht a price of around $550 and a market cap of about $7 billion) but more likely in the short term that we would see a 10 fold increase.. and we would need to have considerable increased development and BTC adoption if we were to see another 1,000 fold increase with today's prices (certainly this is possible and doable within the next 5 years?)

Currently, some BTC skeptics believe that BTC is overvalued with its $550 price; however, the fact that very reasonable and thoughtful presentations can be made to suggest that BTC can serve nearly all of the functions of gold and also can serve a multitude of other complementary functions (money transmission, currency, store of value, hedge against fiat, public ledger and other functions), suggest that the upside potential of BTC is at least 1,000 times its current value...

Think about the current situation.... today, with a 7 billion dollar btc market cap x 1,000 is 7 trillion... which is nearly exactly the equivalent of gold's current market cap - and gold is MERELY ONE storage of value asset.



Svenski7:

I believe that there are NO real faults in making various comparisons and contrasts of the BTC market with the stock market b/c there are quite a few similarities, merely on a different scale that definitely affects the dynamics and volatility of one as compared with another. Maybe it would be a closer analogy to pick one or two stocks or an index fund, yet in the end, bitcoin is NOT going to compare with any exact precision to either one stock, a group of stocks or the stock market as a whole b/c bitcoin has its own peculiarities that are affecting its price... including the fact that there are quite a few love/hate relationships with bitcoin on a broader level with various governments, institutions and even individuals - who seem to perceive that they have a stake in the success or failure of bitcoin - which affects the news, the lawmaking, law suits, the technical attacks at the bitcoin network, and the attempts at price manipulation based on any hype regarding these matters. Surely, the fact that BTC prices are declining, yet holding pretty considerable value in spite of these dynamics demonstrates considerable BTC resilience and technical competence and confidence regarding its future potential contributions.

So even as BRG444 mentions in post 1488 that he continues to buy while the price is under $600 - you never know about how long we are going to end up with BTC prices under $600 and we may go down to $400 or so... So, in that regard, us guys who are bullish about BTC's long-term future need to save some of our fiat in order that we can continue to buy while the BTC prices are going down to the extent that it continues to go down.

And, we do NOT really know how long or how far it could go down... but us bullish about the future of BTC are betting that it will end up returning to prices far and beyond our average BTC buy in price (mine currently is about $685 - surely I wished it were lower, but it is what it is.. based on when I got into BTC and some of my buy/sell decisions along the way).

I've been making a killing recently with Vertcoin.

Well, I've been a miner for a few months now, and to understand what's going on you have to know a bit about that I think.

The scrypt ASICs are here, have been announced this week. So you can watch the market cap move between coins, and I believe Vertcoin will get more popular as people move to it for proper decentralization.

cheers

aka this

http://coinmarketcap.com/vtc_30.html

ASIC scrpyt mining hardware is a game changer for the altcoins and it will drive out all the regular people out of mining. Not only is it bad for coin adaptation it also leaves them venerable for a 51% attack. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

(03-23-2014 02:27 AM)username Wrote:  ASIC scrpyt mining hardware is a game changer for the altcoins and it will drive out all the regular people out of mining. Not only is it bad for coin adaptation it also leaves them venerable for a 51% attack. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

GPU/CPU mining will me left to Vertcoin and Execoin and similar. Litecoin and clones will get a stronger network. I see your point with 51% attack risk but there should be but that should require LOTS of cash to buy enough power and since you probleby would have a hard time selling them later I don't think that's gonna happen.

Edit: Anyone who could help me with a task? Should take about 20min and must be native English speaker. Award 0.01BTC.

(03-05-2014 05:26 PM)brg444 Wrote:  http://www.coinsumm.it/

Just stumbled upon that.

2 day conference with tons of high profile Silicon Valley people on March 25-26. Looking forward to hear some of their speech. Impressive to see the growth of the cryptocurrency community

http://new.livestream.com/coinsummit/eve...s/46138058

First day videos.

Some fantastic discussions and very, very interesting insights on the growing Bitcoin industry and technology

Just sold my first every copy of Sex 3.0 with bitcoin.

Only started accepting BTC yesterday, put the notice up on the site and - boom! - first bitcoin book sale.

Has anyone else every actually sold anything that they create (like a product) using bitcoin?

Bought 7 btc yesterday. Hope this convention will spread some hype =]

No one commented on irs ruling of bitcoin being a commodity? For me it dose not mather. Bitcoim is my tax heaven.

BTC down 10% on some more fake news circulating in China.

More FUD = more chance to buy cheaper BTC

(03-27-2014 04:48 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  BTC down 10% on some more fake news circulating in China.

More FUD = more chance to buy cheaper BTC

I agree and I try to view these rumor mill bad news situations as BTC buying opportunities, as well, even though it is a little bit concerning when the value of a guy's whole BTC investment portfolio is going down in value with the drop in prices....

I keep buying BTC and the price keeps going down. My number of BTCs keeps going up and my average BTC buy-in price keeps going down. In the end, BTC prices have got to reverse and to go back up again otherwise, my BTC investment portfolio is lingering in the red.

Who would have thunk? I could have made a killin, had I known we would be back at this price, again.

I am currently thinking that it is very unlikely that I will sell any BTC under $700... absent some sporadic small sales or absent some real news.. rather than unverifiable tidbits that may NOT really matter too much materially anyhow, when it comes to long term BTC viability.

(03-27-2014 05:39 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I am currently thinking that it is very unlikely that I will sell any BTC under $700... absent some sporadic small sales or absent some real news.. rather than unverifiable tidbits that may NOT really matter too much materially anyhow, when it comes to long term BTC viability.

Right now the floor for BTC prices seems to be around $500 and the ceiling $1,000.

It think It will drift back upwards (or maybe even shoot up if there is a major piece of positive news) but I think a lot of speculators will take profits once gets to or nears $1,000

(03-27-2014 05:44 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  

(03-27-2014 05:39 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I am currently thinking that it is very unlikely that I will sell any BTC under $700... absent some sporadic small sales or absent some real news.. rather than unverifiable tidbits that may NOT really matter too much materially anyhow, when it comes to long term BTC viability.

Right now the floor for BTC prices seems to be around $500 and the ceiling $1,000.

It think It will drift back upwards (or maybe even shoot up if there is a major piece of positive news) but I think a lot of speculators will take profits once gets to or nears $1,000

Surely there is fairly decent potential that BTC prices will go below $450.. especially now that the price is floating between $475 and $500 ( on BitStamp within the past 15 minutes as I type). Surely we cannot anticipate these BTC price manipulations, and gosh I am getting eager to buy more. I just bought 1 BTC at $485 (on Coinbase), but I do NOT have an infinite amount of fiat to be throwing at this situation. I am NOT really sure about my next buy point... maybe $460, if it gets there?

Getting the BTC price to anywhere near $1,000 seems pie in the sky, at this moment; though I do anticipate that a near $1000 price will happen fairly soon. I am just NOT sure about how soon (whether within the next 2 months or 2 years).

A large number of BTC investors - especially those knowledgeable about BTC have little to no doubt that BTC will be going to the $10K territory in the next few years.... I just become a little more doubtful about the price getting to that point anytime soon when we are having these intense negative price swings and the lingering in these relatively low $500 price territories.

(03-27-2014 06:22 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Surely there is fairly decent potential that BTC prices will go below $450.. especially now that the price is floating between $475 and $500 ( on BitStamp within the past 15 minutes as I type). Surely we cannot anticipate these BTC price manipulations, and gosh I am getting eager to buy more. I just bought 1 BTC at $485 (on Coinbase), but I do NOT have an infinite amount of fiat to be throwing at this situation. I am NOT really sure about my next buy point... maybe $460, if it gets there?

Hard to say. Will be very interested to see where the price ends up at the end of today. BTC has not closed at below $500 USD this year.

If you take a look at the chart, BTC spent almost no time between 250 and 500 in the run up to $1,200 - literally only a few days.

(03-27-2014 06:22 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Getting the BTC price to anywhere near $1,000 seems pie in the sky, at this moment; though I do anticipate that a near $1000 price will happen fairly soon. I am just NOT sure about how soon (whether within the next 2 months or 2 years).

Don't see that happening in the next 2 months personally but I think very probably before the end of the year.

(03-27-2014 06:22 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  A large number of BTC investors - especially those knowledgeable about BTC have little to no doubt that BTC will be going to the $10K territory in the next few years.... I just become a little more doubtful about the price getting to that point anytime soon when we are having these intense negative price swings and the lingering in these relatively low $500 price territories.

Welcome to the volatility of BTC!

Buy when there is panic selling and sell when there is greed buying.