Post: #51

(01-24-2014 02:42 PM)BIGBOY Wrote:  Real estate is the one asset class in Argentina that is fairly stable. It is priced in dollars and Argentines place their savings in real estate since it is more stable than the currency. I don't really see the real estate prices crashing too hard, even as this financial mess plays itself out here. In some of the upper class neighborhoods like Palermo Chico, real estate prices barely budged in 2001/2002.

Bummer. I mean good for the locals (I don't want to see people suffer) but for an opportunity investment - darn...

Post: #52

(01-24-2014 02:42 PM)BIGBOY Wrote:  @Fisto - If you want to take advantage of the black market you can't use the formal banking system here. You just need bring cash with you or take a trip to Uruguay and withdraw cash there.

Pretty much everyone misunderstood what Fisto was saying. He wants to go to Uruguay and do a cash advance at a bank there - not in Buenos Aires. This was possible in 2012, but may not be anymore.

Post: #53

(01-24-2014 03:13 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  

(01-24-2014 02:42 PM)BIGBOY Wrote:  @Fisto - If you want to take advantage of the black market you can't use the formal banking system here. You just need bring cash with you or take a trip to Uruguay and withdraw cash there.

Pretty much everyone misunderstood what Fisto was saying. He wants to go to Uruguay and do a cash advance at a bank there - not in Buenos Aires. This was possible in 2012, but may not be anymore.

Thanks Portofmaneau, I didn't want to press the issue.

Post: #54

Hey Fisto......you walked around the Dominican Republic w 4k in your pocket?

How nerve racking would going back into Argentina with 5-10K in your bag?

Wow, I don't know if I could handle that stress. Then you have to change it and hope you don't get jacked or get counterfeit cash. Anyone have any ideas? I have never crossed a border with more than $1K with me.

Post: #55

I notice a lot of misinformation and shitty links in this thread. It's understandable - if you aren't in Buenos Aires right now, it's really hard to know what's going on.

The exchange rate that matters is what you can actually get on the ground i.e. walking into a cueva. The only way you know this is by doing it yourself or talking to someone who did it *that same day*. Things change on a daily (currently hourly) basis here.

If you aren't in Buenos Aires, you can get a rough idea of exchange rates looking at ambito:

http://ambito.com/economia/mercados/monedas/dolar/

The "Informal" rate is a rough approximation of the average cueva rate. If you're exchanging cash, you should get near this. On wire transfers, cuevas currently charge a percentage (3-5%) depending on volume *that day*. Why is there a 20% spread? Because the laws changed today, volume is non-existent, and everyone is waiting until next week to see how it plays out.

A worse, but still useful website is:

http://dolarblue.net

The information there is less reliable. However, it also gives you rough approximation for the euro rate, and approximations for rates Argentines get using various methods (credit card charges, ATM withdrawals, tourist packages, etc.).

For people who are counting on the real estate market to crash:

Real estate prices have already dropped significantly since 2009. The crash of the peso doesn't have much to do with this, because all real estate purchases are denominated and paid in dollars, and always have been. If there is a 2001 style crash and you're able to find a hardship seller in a sell-or-starve situation, you can find a predatory deal - but in general, Argentines value real estate as the only stable long-term investment, and in the case of a crash, they just hold onto it until the market recovers. The market volume will dry up (as prices drop, there's less on the market in general).

That said, prices are already low here by US standards. It's worth stressing that Argentina is not the US, or Europe, or even Colombia. Things just don't work here - there have been multi-week power outages, import restrictions mean you can mostly only get shoddy locally made products, currency restrictions mean you have to do high-confidence wire transfers to offshore bank accounts to get money into the country, there have been police strikes and subsequent riots in the past month, etc. If you're a tourist, none of this stuff affects you that much and it's interesting for a few weeks or a few months, but if you're invested in the country it's a different story. Real estate transactions are all cash, no mortgages, no electronic transfer - you literally sit around a table and count 150K dollars at the closing. Due to currency restrictions, the closing price will be in pesos and will be a totally different price than you actually pay - money brought in from outside the country must be brought in via blue-chip swaps to legally show that it entered, then exchanged for USD on the black market, unless you want to be audited by the tax authority. It's a complicated time to do a purchase and unless the restrictions ease up it will only get worse - there are literally new laws on a weekly basis governing this stuff.

If you're interested in buying in Argentina, your best hope is waiting until the 2015 elections and hoping a business-friendly neoliberal/conservative is elected who overturns all of the laws of the past 7 years, to make it easier/possible for you to purchase. This would be a nightmare for the country itself, as the biggest reason Argentina jumps from one crisis to another every 10-15 years is because there is no political continuity, they veer from one extreme (demagogue peronist) to another (neoliberal corporatist). If there is a massive sudden crash here, it's not going to be attractive for you to buy - there will be much higher probability of expropriation. The current devaluation does make Argentina a cheap and interesting travel destination.

Post: #56

(01-24-2014 03:30 PM)MichaelCorleone Wrote:  And you walked around the Dominican Republic w 4k in your pocket?

How nerve racking would going back into Argentina with 5-10K in your bag?

Wow, I don't know if I could handle that stress. Then you have to change it and hope you don't get jacked or get counterfeit cash. Anyone have any ideas? I have never crossed a border with more than $1K with me.

Every foreign resident I know comes back into Argentina with as close as they can get to $10K USD in cash on their person.

If you're serious about purchasing real estate you'll be walking around with $100K US in your bag or whatever your purchase price is.

Post: #57

(01-24-2014 03:30 PM)MichaelCorleone Wrote:  Hey Fisto......you walked around the Dominican Republic w 4k in your pocket?

How nerve racking would going back into Argentina with 5-10K in your bag?

Wow, I don't know if I could handle that stress. Then you have to change it and hope you don't get jacked or get counterfeit cash. Anyone have any ideas? I have never crossed a border with more than $1K with me.

I get the impression Fisto looks like this. Never met the guy, and would prefer not to meet him in a dark alley.

And that he likes cats.

Post: #58

(01-24-2014 03:39 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  I notice a lot of misinformation and shitty links in this thread. It's understandable - if you aren't in Buenos Aires right now, it's really hard to know what's going on.

The exchange rate that matters is what you can actually get on the ground i.e. walking into a cueva. The only way you know this is by doing it yourself or talking to someone who did it *that same day*. Things change on a daily (currently hourly) basis here.

If you aren't in Buenos Aires, you can get a rough idea of exchange rates looking at ambito:

http://ambito.com/economia/mercados/monedas/dolar/

The "Informal" rate is a rough approximation of the average cueva rate. If you're exchanging cash, you should get near this. On wire transfers, cuevas currently charge a percentage (3-5%) depending on volume *that day*. Why is there a 20% spread? Because the laws changed today, volume is non-existent, and everyone is waiting until next week to see how it plays out.

A worse, but still useful website is:

http://dolarblue.net

The information there is less reliable. However, it also gives you rough approximation for the euro rate, and approximations for rates Argentines get using various methods (credit card charges, ATM withdrawals, tourist packages, etc.).

For people who are counting on the real estate market to crash:

Real estate prices have already dropped significantly since 2009. The crash of the peso doesn't have much to do with this, because all real estate purchases are denominated and paid in dollars, and always have been. If there is a 2001 style crash and you're able to find a hardship seller in a sell-or-starve situation, you can find a predatory deal - but in general, Argentines value real estate as the only stable long-term investment, and in the case of a crash, they just hold onto it until the market recovers. The market volume will dry up (as prices drop, there's less on the market in general).

That said, prices are already low here by US standards. It's worth stressing that Argentina is not the US, or Europe, or even Colombia. Things just don't work here - there have been multi-week power outages, import restrictions mean you can mostly only get shoddy locally made products, currency restrictions mean you have to do high-confidence wire transfers to offshore bank accounts to get money into the country, there have been police strikes and subsequent riots in the past month, etc. If you're a tourist, none of this stuff affects you that much and it's interesting for a few weeks or a few months, but if you're invested in the country it's a different story. Real estate transactions are all cash, no mortgages, no electronic transfer - you literally sit around a table and count 150K dollars at the closing. Due to currency restrictions, the closing price will be in pesos and will be a totally different price than you actually pay - money brought in from outside the country must be brought in via blue-chip swaps to legally show that it entered, then exchanged for USD on the black market, unless you want to be audited by the tax authority. It's a complicated time to do a purchase and unless the restrictions ease up it will only get worse - there are literally new laws on a weekly basis governing this stuff.

If you're interested in buying in Argentina, your best hope is waiting until the 2015 elections and hoping a business-friendly neoliberal/conservative is elected who overturns all of the laws of the past 7 years, to make it easier/possible for you to purchase. This would be a nightmare for the country itself, as the biggest reason Argentina jumps from one crisis to another every 10-15 years is because there is no political continuity, they veer from one extreme (demagogue peronist) to another (neoliberal corporatist). If there is a massive sudden crash here, it's not going to be attractive for you to buy - there will be much higher probability of expropriation. The current devaluation does make Argentina a cheap and interesting travel destination.

Wow, that sounds like how things are done in a 3rd world country or a banana republic not how a modern country conducts financial transactions. Unreal.....You mentioned assets being seized by the government aka expropriation, that is what I would fear the most. I would never purchase any property if thats how financial transactions were run.

Post: #59

(01-24-2014 03:43 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  [quote='MichaelCorleone' pid='636734' dateline='1390595454']
Hey Fisto......you walked around the Dominican Republic w 4k in your pocket?

How nerve racking would going back into Argentina with 5-10K in your bag?

Wow, I don't know if I could handle that stress. Then you have to change it and hope you don't get jacked or get counterfeit cash. Anyone have any ideas? I have never crossed a border with more than $1K with me.

I get the impression Fisto looks like this. Never met the guy, and would prefer not to meet him in a dark alley.

And that he likes cats.

I don't look like that at all haha

Post: #60

(01-24-2014 03:30 PM)MichaelCorleone Wrote:  Hey Fisto......you walked around the Dominican Republic w 4k in your pocket?

How nerve racking would going back into Argentina with 5-10K in your bag?

Wow, I don't know if I could handle that stress. Then you have to change it and hope you don't get jacked or get counterfeit cash. Anyone have any ideas? I have never crossed a border with more than $1K with me.

Split it up in your bag, so even if in the unlikely event that it gets razored you wouldn't lose it all - keep it on you at all times, with a strap around your arm or foot if snoozing (on a plane or bus or something). Be ready to fight for your bag if it comes down to it; when you have the thought in your mind and mean it, people pick up on the vibe that you're not victim material.

You can also get a moneybelt for your waist and one for your leg if you want to keep some closer to your person. I feel like the calf belt is particularly incognito, so put as much as possible there.

If you'll be keeping it in your room, read this post: /thread-20433-...#pid374579

Beyond All Seas

"The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe.
To be your own man is a hard business. If you try it, you'll be lonely often, and sometimes
frightened. But no price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself." - Kipling

Post: #61

(01-24-2014 03:39 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  I notice a lot of misinformation and shitty links in this thread. It's understandable - if you aren't in Buenos Aires right now, it's really hard to know what's going on.

The exchange rate that matters is what you can actually get on the ground i.e. walking into a cueva. The only way you know this is by doing it yourself or talking to someone who did it *that same day*. Things change on a daily (currently hourly) basis here.

If you aren't in Buenos Aires, you can get a rough idea of exchange rates looking at ambito:

http://ambito.com/economia/mercados/monedas/dolar/

The "Informal" rate is a rough approximation of the average cueva rate. If you're exchanging cash, you should get near this. On wire transfers, cuevas currently charge a percentage (3-5%) depending on volume *that day*. Why is there a 20% spread? Because the laws changed today, volume is non-existent, and everyone is waiting until next week to see how it plays out.

A worse, but still useful website is:

http://dolarblue.net

The information there is less reliable. However, it also gives you rough approximation for the euro rate, and approximations for rates Argentines get using various methods (credit card charges, ATM withdrawals, tourist packages, etc.).

For people who are counting on the real estate market to crash:

Real estate prices have already dropped significantly since 2009. The crash of the peso doesn't have much to do with this, because all real estate purchases are denominated and paid in dollars, and always have been. If there is a 2001 style crash and you're able to find a hardship seller in a sell-or-starve situation, you can find a predatory deal - but in general, Argentines value real estate as the only stable long-term investment, and in the case of a crash, they just hold onto it until the market recovers. The market volume will dry up (as prices drop, there's less on the market in general).

That said, prices are already low here by US standards. It's worth stressing that Argentina is not the US, or Europe, or even Colombia. Things just don't work here - there have been multi-week power outages, import restrictions mean you can mostly only get shoddy locally made products, currency restrictions mean you have to do high-confidence wire transfers to offshore bank accounts to get money into the country, there have been police strikes and subsequent riots in the past month, etc. If you're a tourist, none of this stuff affects you that much and it's interesting for a few weeks or a few months, but if you're invested in the country it's a different story. Real estate transactions are all cash, no mortgages, no electronic transfer - you literally sit around a table and count 150K dollars at the closing. Due to currency restrictions, the closing price will be in pesos and will be a totally different price than you actually pay - money brought in from outside the country must be brought in via blue-chip swaps to legally show that it entered, then exchanged for USD on the black market, unless you want to be audited by the tax authority. It's a complicated time to do a purchase and unless the restrictions ease up it will only get worse - there are literally new laws on a weekly basis governing this stuff.

If you're interested in buying in Argentina, your best hope is waiting until the 2015 elections and hoping a business-friendly neoliberal/conservative is elected who overturns all of the laws of the past 7 years, to make it easier/possible for you to purchase. This would be a nightmare for the country itself, as the biggest reason Argentina jumps from one crisis to another every 10-15 years is because there is no political continuity, they veer from one extreme (demagogue peronist) to another (neoliberal corporatist). If there is a massive sudden crash here, it's not going to be attractive for you to buy - there will be much higher probability of expropriation. The current devaluation does make Argentina a cheap and interesting travel destination.

1. Real estate fell everywhere during the 01-02 crisis just in
different amounts.

2. RE increased a TON from 2002 to today. It def has room to fall.

3. The people in BA have a Ph.D in protecting themselves from
crisis and getting thru them. Most people don't realize that
all banks were shut down there for months and locals were limited
as to how much of their money they could access. Total screwjob.

4. They are going to collapse harder than people think. Its just
what they do.

Post: #62

(01-24-2014 05:55 PM)Fisto Wrote:  

(01-24-2014 03:43 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  [quote='MichaelCorleone' pid='636734' dateline='1390595454']
Hey Fisto......you walked around the Dominican Republic w 4k in your pocket?

How nerve racking would going back into Argentina with 5-10K in your bag?

Wow, I don't know if I could handle that stress. Then you have to change it and hope you don't get jacked or get counterfeit cash. Anyone have any ideas? I have never crossed a border with more than $1K with me.

I get the impression Fisto looks like this. Never met the guy, and would prefer not to meet him in a dark alley.

And that he likes cats.

I don't look like that at all haha

LOL, I know, don't think anyone looks like that in real life. But I have gathered that you can handle yourself.

Post: #63

(01-24-2014 05:26 PM)MichaelCorleone Wrote:  You mentioned assets being seized by the government aka expropriation, that is what I would fear the most. I would never purchase any property if thats how financial transactions were run.

To be clear: expropriation of individuals' assets has never been an issue in Argentina. However, YPF was expropriated (nominally for breach of contract) in 2012, which I believe was a first in Argentina. I don't think this government will start rounding up foreigners' property; but it's really hard to say who a government will scapegoat and what options are on the table in the event of a devastating crash (either this one, or the next one in another 10-15 years, or the one after that).

Post: #64

Best to buy real estate in punta del este and other parts of Uruguay. While Urugay will take a hit in valuations from the dearth of peso inflows, that market is at least predictable, free of socialist intervention and liquid sans currency restrictions

Post: #65

Does anyone who knows Argentina really think crime will get too bad there? I mean their murder rate is basically the same as the U.S. People here regularly travel to MUCH more "dangerous" places and come out fine. I can't see worrying about ArgentIna really

Post: #66

I think I'll be there around May. Hopefully enough time for the dollar to be strong with most of the crime adjusting to normalcy but not completely

Post: #67

(01-24-2014 08:52 PM)El_gato Wrote:  Best to buy real estate in punta del este and other parts of Uruguay. While Urugay will take a hit in valuations from the dearth of peso inflows, that market is at least predictable, free of socialist intervention and liquid sans currency restrictions

Uruguay is also headed in the wrong direction.

Uruguay's president is a former socialist guerrilla fighter who was shot by the police six times and served 14 years in prison.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Mujica

Post: #68

You sure Tail Gunner? Mujica, even if you take in count his curriculum, have done a fairly good work in Uruguay, and did not pushed for extremist left wing policies, or populist shit like the Kirchners. Sure, people complain about things (fuel price for example), but most of the uruguayans are happy with his administration.

Post: #69

(01-26-2014 12:02 AM)Mekorig Wrote:  You sure Tail Gunner? Mujica, even if you take in count his curriculum, have done a fairly good work in Uruguay, and did not pushed for extremist left wing policies, or populist shit like the Kirchners. Sure, people complain about things (fuel price for example), but most of the uruguayans are happy with his administration.

Yes, I am sure. Absolutely positive. If Uruguayans are happy with his administration then it says a great deal about the Uruguayans. I am glad that they are happy with their ordinary left wing policies instead of any "extremist left wing policies."

Obama and Kirchner were both re-elected. That also says a great about Americans and Argentinos.

I have no plan to jump from the frying pan into the fire.

Post: #70

(01-26-2014 12:10 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(01-26-2014 12:02 AM)Mekorig Wrote:  You sure Tail Gunner? Mujica, even if you take in count his curriculum, have done a fairly good work in Uruguay, and did not pushed for extremist left wing policies, or populist shit like the Kirchners. Sure, people complain about things (fuel price for example), but most of the uruguayans are happy with his administration.

Yes, I am sure. Absolutely positive. If Uruguayans are happy with his administration then it says a great deal about the Uruguayans.

Obama and Kirchner were both re-elected. That also says a great about Americans and Argentinos.

I have no plan to jump from the frying pan into the fire.

Margaret Tatcher was also reelected, so was dubya.

Post: #71

(01-26-2014 12:12 AM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  

(01-26-2014 12:10 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(01-26-2014 12:02 AM)Mekorig Wrote:  You sure Tail Gunner? Mujica, even if you take in count his curriculum, have done a fairly good work in Uruguay, and did not pushed for extremist left wing policies, or populist shit like the Kirchners. Sure, people complain about things (fuel price for example), but most of the uruguayans are happy with his administration.

Yes, I am sure. Absolutely positive. If Uruguayans are happy with his administration then it says a great deal about the Uruguayans.

Obama and Kirchner were both re-elected. That also says a great about Americans and Argentinos.

I have no plan to jump from the frying pan into the fire.

Margaret Tatcher was also reelected, so was dubya.

I do not see your point. Thatcher was one of the great statesmen of the last century, re-vitalized a moribund UK economy, and helped Reagan win the Cold War. The UK would be a total economic basket case without Thatcher's stewardship.

But I do not want to derail the thread. Not sure about your point.

Post: #72

If I was going to buy property in Latin America, I would do it in Chile. It is expensive but the government is pretty honest, the economy is stable, and the threat of expropriation of assets by the government is low.

http://www.internationalman.com/78-globa...-in-the-us

Post: #73

(01-26-2014 12:25 AM)The Texas Prophet Wrote:  If I was going to buy property in Latin America, I would do it in Chile. It is expensive but the government is pretty honest, the economy is stable, and the threat of expropriation of assets by the government is low.

http://www.internationalman.com/78-globa...-in-the-us

There are many snake oil salesmen pushing land in Chile, while forgoing any discussion of the rampant socialism in Chile. The small amount of capitalism in Chile will most likely be gone within a generation.

My choices would be Peru and Paraguay because the governments are so inept that they tend to leave people alone, but those governments are not psychotically inept like Argentina.

In Peru, to be elected by the people the politicians have to acquiesce to a market based society even if they really want to eliminate it. In Chile, the people demand that capitalism be eliminated and the politicians compete over how fast and how completely.

Columbia is also an up-and-comer. I would also invest in property in BA under the right conditions because of the well-established boom-and-bust cycles.

I know people who live in Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Peru, and Paraguay. They are mostly libertarian-oriented, so I get good information from the perspective of logical thinkers.

Post: #74

Next week will be interesting, like in the chinese curse "interesting". I can see the Kirchner administration bailing out like rats from a sinking ship.

Post: #75

This is from a financial blog I follow and it has some good analysis on Argentina

http://soberlook.com/2014/01/argentinas-...fires.html

His conclusion, "Argentina is not Zimbabwe just yet, but it's only a matter of time."