Post: #1

Yes. It is not an exaggeration. There is now a permanent cure for hepatitis c.

The name of the drug is Sovaldi (sofosbuvir). It has extremely minimal side effects. Treatment will last 12 weeks for a total cure. Cure rate has been above 90% in all cases so far. It is now FDA approved.

Here is the FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION(FDA) report about it: http://www.fda.gov/forconsumers/byaudien...377920.htm

The company that has the drug is GILEAD. They bought a smaller company that was doing the research on the drug for $11 billion. Now, sofosbuvir belongs to GILEAD.

Before i get into the cost of the drug, etc... let us discuss the science:

I couldnt find much about the science of the drug functionality beside one line where the FDA mention that the drug is a nucleotide analog polymerase inhibitor... they refer to the active metabolite as GS-331007. Hahaha. Bunch of fucks. I understand GILEAD spent $11 billion and they need to make money, as such, they keep things a secret. anyways....

The drug is a nucleotide analog polymerase inhibitor... from this i can surmise that it attaches complimenting, synthetic, modified nucleotide strands to the Hepatitis C virus nucleotide sequence thereby stopping the replication process of the virus.

Let me try and break it down further:

Nucleotides are basic building blocks of DNA or RNA, which is needed by all living, breeding things on this planet..including viruses. These building blocks of DNA and RNA that are called nucleotides are basically sugar, more precisely, sugar-acids.

And they join to each other like chain links...like a twisting ladder.

Now, if you modify a little bit one of this sugar building block... you can turn it from nucleotides into nucleosides... What is the difference between the two? Imagine that one can shake hands(nucleotides) and the other has one of his arm amputated(nucleoside). This modified sugar-block(nucleoside), the one-arm amputee, will not be able to attach to the next sugar building block in line because his arm is gone.... a wrench has been thrown into the link... thereby stopping the replicating(coping)process. the organism dies.

what is necessary to create a nucleoside? enzymes group called phosphorylating kinases.

I just mentioned above replicating/copying of nucleotides. so what does this? an enzyme called polymerase. Polymerase is the enzyme that helps assemble these sugar-blocks... which means that if you introduce a nucleoside(a modified nucleotide-- the amputee); the polyguy(polymerase) wont be able to attach the next nucleotide to continue the sequence of sugar blocks to build the ladder...you basically throw a wrench into the chain...that means that replication stops.

So, based on the little, one line description in that FDA report of sofosbuvir being a nucleotide analog polymerase inhibitor... that is the best i can extrapolate about how sofosbuvir performs its function.

That is for the science, now, lets discuss the business side of things:

GILEAD, decides that they will sell this drug, sofosbuvir, for $1000 per pill. Yes, you are reading that correctly. A $1,000 per pill. The estimated total cost for the 12 weeks it takes to complete a treatment cycle is $84,000.

What a bunch of greedy arseholes! (but...will redound nicely for the stocks price. speaking of Gilead stock(ticker: GILD)...I will get to that in a second...)

The actual cost of these treatment should be around $150 to $250 max per person because the economy of scale for these drugs....not the current $84,000 price tag. Especially, since it only cost comparative antiviral drugs $1 per gram to manufacture; even more so, since 3 million americans and 170 million people worldwide are affected by hepatitis C ...a virus that will fucking destroy your liver.

Gilead, however, are not showing any mercy. Free market capitalism, baby!

They clearly want to milk this for all its worth. They obviously see it as 3million X $48,000 = $144,000,000,000 at very, very least when you look at it globally. Governments across the planet will just have to subsidizes what they need to subsidies for their citizens.

When the VP of Gilead was asked about these facts: that GILEAD only need 150,000 people at $1,000 per pill to recover the cost of $11billion; afterwards, will GILEAD be so kind as to lower the price of the drug to make it affordable for millions of people... the V.P of GILEAD, Gregg Alton said, and i quote "That's very unlikely that we would do that." Translation: pay us or fuck off!

Again, to re-iterate: To give a comparison, it only cost $1 per gram to make antiviral drugs for HIV or other Hepatitis drugs...so, sofosbuvir will probably be in that range too....but..once you've cornered the market, you can pretty much make everybody your bitch.

So, what are you going to do?

Well... you can take a look at the fundamental stock valuation of GILEAD(GILD) and decide for yourself maybe you should buy their stocks or stock options...
Also, i have taken the liberty of attaching the stock chart of GILD below:

Post: #2

Was reading an article on this earlier. Just the kind of small stock one invests in and makes it big...

Post: #3

good post bro

Post: #4

It's not really a cure yet because the response rates are well short of 100% for some subtypes -- as low as 60% for subtype 3.

But it's clearly a major advance and a big step closer to a cure.

Post: #5

Time to raw-dogging with impunity:

Post: #6

Can we get a Hep primer?

Hep C is purely the one from sex and transfusions? While the others (A and B) come from contaminants but aren't a lifelong illness?

Post: #7

Good post, you a bio major as well?

Although to be fair to big pharma, when you pay for a blockbuster drug you're not just paying for the R&D spending it took to develop that one drug, but also for the RD spent on the 100 drugs that failed before they struck gold. Less than 1 out of 100 compounds makes it from the lab to the pharmacy shelves, so when you buy those pills you're not paying for 1 but for 100.

Post: #8

(01-06-2014 11:30 PM)CaliforniaSupreme Wrote:  Was reading an article on this earlier. Just the kind of small stock one invests in and makes it big...

indeed. It is a throw of the dice though. it could be a hero or a zero.

(01-06-2014 11:36 PM)elabayarde Wrote:  good post bro

Thanks, man.

(01-06-2014 11:52 PM)The Lizard of Oz Wrote:  It's not really a cure yet because the response rates are well short of 100% for some subtypes -- as low as 60% for subtype 3.

But it's clearly a major advance and a big step closer to a cure.

They did a phase 3 test on the viral genotype 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 and take the test subjects SVR(sustained virological response: which means they look to see if there is still any trace of Hepatitis C virus after 6 months.)

In the case of 1, 4, 5 or 6. ... their SVR clocks in at 89%, 92%, 82% and 96% of test subjects do not have any virus anymore.(neutrino study) The overall SVR is 90%. That is a pretty good number, if you ask me.

In phase 3 study of genotype 2 and 3. the SVR results were 95% of subtype 2, and 56% for subtype 3. (fission study).

So, i guess, pray that you dont get genotype 3 hepatitis C. How many subtype 3 are in the population?

To me these are ridiculously good numbers.

Even analgesic like aspirin never hits 100%....it is ineffective in some people, and some other people the effects are worse, causing analgesic nephropathy.

Sofosbuvir have very negligible side-effects. just nausea, headache, fatigue,etc. nothing to write home about.

(01-07-2014 12:04 AM)Tuthmosis Wrote:  Time to raw-dogging with impunity:

Can you transmit Hepatitis C through shagging? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hepatitis_C...ntercourse

(01-07-2014 12:14 AM)kosko Wrote:  Can we get a Hep primer?

Hep C is purely the one from sex and transfusions? While the others (A and B) come from contaminants but aren't a lifelong illness?

A primer? I will try and get to it later... in the meantime: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hepatitis_C...ntercourse (through bleeding anal sex. because it is generally transmitted through blood. that is why it was originally seen as "the butt-fucking gay disease")

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hepatitis_A (Hep A you can get it from contaminated food and shite-stained water in dirty countries or dirty hippies home. hehehehe)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hepatitis_B ( Hep B you can get it from pure, regular fucking. but the good news is that your body destroy this Hep B bitch likes its nothing.)

(01-07-2014 12:21 AM)rekruler Wrote:  Good post, you a bio major as well?

Although to be fair to big pharma, when you pay for a blockbuster drug you're not just paying for the R&D spending it took to develop that one drug, but also for the RD spent on the 100 drugs that failed before they struck gold. Less than 1 out of 100 compounds makes it from the lab to the pharmacy shelves, so when you buy those pills you're not paying for 1 but for 100.

Yes, i studied biochemistry.

on big pharma. you are completely right. another case is the orphan drug status research.

regards,

Nemencine

Post: #9

Does it still make sense to invest in the stock? Does not look overpriced at the moment

Post: #10

I would think by now people have heard of something called "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news." Apparently not. If you're buying GILD because of the news of Hep C treatment being effective, you're buying on the news, not buying on the rumor.

Disclosure: I already cashed out of my GILD position. Biotech has been the place to be for 2012 and 2013. I will continue riding the biotech wave into 2014. When I see signs of too many people piling in, I will be out.

DavidZRH

Post: #11

Looks like I'll be able to solve my little problem now.

Post: #12

Sorry to hijack the thread...but...

If you're trying to get ahead of the news cycle, you might want to check out MNKD. They have an inhalable insulin product (potential blockbuster) that just finished phase III trials, and they're waiting on approval (which seems likely at this point). It's not without a good deal of risk. They have no sales/marketing infrastructure, so they'll likely have to rely on a partnership for that part of the equation; and they have a problem with debt and cash on hand, so it's not certain that they'll be able to stay out of bankruptcy long enough to get their product to market. On the other hand, this seems to be Alfred Mann's pet project so there's a school of thought that the Mann Group will simply pump in whatever money is needed to keep it afloat (via a revolving debt facility). Next market catalyst will be the announcement of the FDA decision expected by Q2. Even if their product never makes it to market, there will likely be a nice bump in the price immediately following any positive announcement by the FDA.

Post: #13

I think i need to point this out.

There is a difference between CURE and TREATMENT.

This drug, sofosbuvir, is a cure...not a treatment.

Will it work for everybody? roughly 90% of people. There is hardly anything that is 100%. The same way that aspirin or fosinopril(an ace inhibitor) will not work on every person. Like i said, if you contacted genotype 3 hepatitis C... your odds dropped to 56%.

Let me re-iterate, there is a difference between CURE and TREATMENT.

CURE: is total. the Hepatitis C studies shows a sustained virological response for subtype 1,2,4,5 or 6 of 90% average with a 9% relapse. That means that roughly 80% of infected individuals in the study were cured. the traces of the virus, gone. destroyed. eliminated. forever. they will not need the medication afterwards. that is what being cured means.

On the other hand,

TREATMENT: Is basically a bandage, a palliative. if you are taking medication like warfarin for myocardial infarction problems... you are not cured... you are on treatment. If you are taking levothyroxine for your thyroid, you are on treatment; you are not cured.

Of course, a treatment can lead to a cure.

I hope that help clarifies the difference between a cure and a treatment.

That been said, here is a fun fact for all the black members of RVF:

This medication, sofosbuvir, has a SVF of 87% for Blacks and 91% for non-Blacks(hispanics, whites,asians, firstnations,etc). Basically, 87% of blacks will be cured of hepatitis C, if they take this drug... while the number is 91% for anybody that is not black.

Why? The research doesnt say... but my guess is that it must be the allele distribution of cytochrome P450 in Blacks. There are some drugs that shows greater efficacy in Blacks than it does in other races...and there are some drugs that display better efficacy in other races than it does in blacks.

Even more fascinating are drugs that will work equally well, in say, Kenyans and swedish but functions less in British and Russian. It may do well in Japanese and Congolese and Italians...but does less well in German and Korean.

Allele distribution of metabolic enzymes plays a huge role.

regards,

Nemencine

p.s. i am not saying you should buy or not buy GILD... i am saying you should make up your mind. If you want to see a statistical analysis of how stocks tends to perform after FDA positive phase 3 announcement... check out "encyclopedia of chart patterns" by thomas bulkowski. i have forgotten the page number.

Post: #14

As a college student interested in virology and genetics, this breakthrough is pretty inspiring.

Makes me want to reconsider my career plans...

Post: #15

I may have had this disease, diagnosed by a Chinese hospital but after 8 months went to a Western hospital and found out the virus was either, never present or had been completely eliminated.

Here is what I did while I was sitting around for 8 months:

Cut out ALL alcohol consumption

Started working out and walking at least 3 times daily. I went out break dancing in clubs 3 times a week either by myself or with my best friend, very high intensity.

Completely eliminated ALL Fat content and ALL fast foods from my diet.

Stopped drinking or eating ANYTHING with sugar

Drank a protien shake in the morning, in the afternoon and one at night. (I found this from another site, this may be the ONE thing that inhibits Hep C production)

Ate a ton of vegetables, fruits, Garlic, Ginger and Spices.

Drank ALOT of water daily, at least 2 litres

Cut down on my red meat consumption.

Took ALOT of vitamins and supplements daily including:

Vitamin C, Vitamin E, Vitamin A, Vitamin D, Blueberry Extract (pill form), Milk Thistle (3 Pills per day), Ginseng (at least once per day)

Took welding and truck driving courses (looked for jobs where I wouldn't have to work with others or ever have accidental blood 2 blood contact)

Researched real estate in Mexico near Puerto Vallarta, 6 months working and 6 months vacation for the rest of my life was the plan.

Started praying to god and asking for forgiveness for whatever it was I had done to deserve this. Initially, I was so pissed off at that mutherfvker for cursing me with it but you get over it. I was crying when I thought about having children or even finding another mate, thought about suicide a few times, the isolation can get to you especially when you tell others about it. People don't know about Hep C AND it is highly contagious and fairly easy to contract so most of your friends will drop off. Eventually the hurting and self pity give way to anger and motivation to do something with the remaining time on Earth. I thank god for doing it for me, it was a wake up call to get my ass in gear and get going on all the things that I really wanted to accomplish in life. After having accepted my place in life and my eventual death, I was a walking terminator, like a rock you couldn't break me. Was convinced I was going to tank in 10 years so I wanted to lengthen my life as much as possible and at the same time I wasn't taking shit from ANYBODY. It was like being invincible.

This diet may or may not have eliminated it from my system completely.

Post: #16

(01-06-2014 11:17 PM)Nemencine Wrote:  Yes. It is not an exaggeration. There is now a permanent cure for hepatitis c.
..... The company that has the drug is GILEAD.... you can take a look at the fundamental stock valuation of GILEAD(GILD) and decide for yourself maybe you should buy their stocks or stock options...

GILD was at $73 at the time of posting. Now? It is up by roughly +10% gain at $83.
That aside, there are a few thingst that worries me: the average P/B for the entire biotechnology sector is 7.88. GILD at P/B of 10.58 is clearly overpriced. However, i think since GILD is the only game in town with sofosbuvir(the only known medical cure for hepatitis C.) i think there is room for increase PPS.

Besides, their return on asset is at 13.70%. No small feat.

Another thing that bothers me: something that i really, really dont like is the super-heavy institutional ownership at 93.80%. Jeezus!

anyways, On the positive: clearly no debt. Which is strikingly unusual for a biotech. So, that is a big plus. Solid EPS all across the board.

On the technical side, it breaks and hold the $75/$76 support and resistance level with gusto. To me that is the rubicon line. That is the line in the sand. If GILD closes below that line($75 per share) i am dumping my cargo and saying bye bye to GILD.

anyways, i have attached updated chart and fundie below:

Post: #17

(01-07-2014 01:42 AM)Nemencine Wrote:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hepatitis_B ( Hep B you can get it from pure, regular fucking. but the good news is that your body destroy this Hep B bitch likes its nothing.)

Some people infected with Hep B will get chronic Hep B infection, and some of those will develop Hep B liver disease, which can be fatal or at least disabling.

Prevention is best - make sure you've had your Hep B shots and get a booster every 5 - 10 years.

There is no cure yet for Hep B, and it's estimated to be 50 - 100 times more infectious than HIV.

Post: #18

(01-06-2014 11:17 PM)Nemencine Wrote:  Yes. It is not an exaggeration. There is now a permanent cure for hepatitis c. ....The name of the drug is Sovaldi (sofosbuvir).... It is now FDA approved....The company that has the drug is GILEAD....GILEAD, decides that they will sell this drug, sofosbuvir, for $1000 per pill. Yes, you are reading that correctly. A $1,000 per pill. The estimated total cost for the 12 weeks it takes to complete a treatment cycle is $84,000. ..So, what are you going to do?

Well... you can take a look at the fundamental stock valuation of GILEAD(GILD) and decide for yourself maybe you should buy their stocks or stock options...
Also, i have taken the liberty of attaching the stock chart of GILD below:

BELOW IS THE UPDATE ON THE STOCK GILEAD. It has went up from $73.24 (when i first did that post on 7th of Jan, 2014), to now $90.46.


For me,.... this already happened.

Anyways, i have attached the current GILD chart below:

Post: #19

84,000 is actually pretty cheap when compared to previous treatments, liver transplants can be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars and that's assuming you ever get off the waiting list

Post: #20

Quote:Sovaldi costs $84,000 for a course of treatment. Add in other therapies that supplement Sovaldi, and now you’re talking about $100,000 or so to treat a single patient. To use Sovaldi to treat each of the 3 million hepatitis C patients in the United States, it would cost around $300 billion, or about the same amount we annually spend for all other drugs combined.

Gilead deserves a reasonable return on their investment. Gilead did not invent Sovaldi, but it bought the company that did for $11 billion. That took insight and the willingness to accept risk. It also took a complete lack of self-awareness — and unmitigated gall — to price Sovaldi the way Gilead has.

Hepatitis C patients in the U.S. are mostly uninsured, underinsured and/or incarcerated. Medicaid, the VA and our prison system bear the brunt of the cost impact, and by extension so do all of us as taxpayers. Sure, we could ask these patients to pay more, but coming up with a 10% copay is already tough enough for drugs that cost hundreds of dollars, let alone $1,000 per pill.

Sovaldi costs about $130 to manufacture, reinforcing how outrageous its pricing is. Gilead claims that the pricing reflects the value of Sovaldi and it deserves a premium because of downstream health savings. Following that logic, all antibiotics have been vastly underpriced since the introduction of penicillin some 60 years ago.

In Germany, the cost for Sovaldi is around $67,000 for a course of therapy. In Canada and the U.K., it’s about $55,000. While these are no India or Egypt cut-rate deals, these prices still represent a significant discount to what we’re being asked to shoulder in the U.S.

I heard it took 300M to develop. Interesting the pricing differences. I think the primary difference is national healthcare vs what the US has. Wowza...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecar...ns-to-pay/