Post: #176

I think B Hop hit it right on the head with his comments on AB.

Post: #177

I said I didn't like Broner, so this result made me very happy indeed!

Post: #178

Here are my thoughts on Broner. First off, the guy who had the fight 115-110 couldn't have been watching the fight. With the two knockdowns and the point taken away from Maidana for the headbutt, 115-110 would mean that he gave four rounds to Broner. There is no way Broner won four rounds in that fight. A shutout for Maidana would have been 119-109 with the knockdowns and the headbutt. If you wanted to be generous and give Broner two rounds, the score would be 117-111. One of the three judges was close to that score. The guy who scored the fight 115-110 has made at least two bad decisions in the past that I know about, so watch for him. His name is Stanley Christodoulou. I can't say that he is another C.J. Ross, but I could definitely see him screwing some people over.

Broner's problem, among other things, is that he took a huge jump from 135 to 147 without even having one fight at 140. He was pretty effective, though not an elite boxer, at 135, 130, and weights below 130. The reason why he was pretty effective is that his power was much better against smaller guys. He was able to use this power to overcompensate for the fact that he does not throw a lot of punches and he is not great defensively. Months ago, when I saw that Broner had signed to fight Paulie Malignaggi at 147, I thought it was some kind of joke. He was jumping up two weight classes and very recently had been fighting at even lower weights, 130 and 126. When he fought Malignaggi, it was clear that his power would not be effective at 147 and that he shouldn't be fighting in that weight class. I'm 100% sure he could make 140, but he may also struggle there, although it is a much less competitive division than 147. What he needs to do is go back down to 135 or even 130. The only guy who has a really good chance at beating him at 130 is Mikey Garcia. I would actually bet on Garcia in that one. He was making 130 and even 126 not so long ago, so I believe he could go down two or even three weight classes. If he stays at 147, he is screwed.

Broner did say after the fight that he wants a rematch with Maidana. I see no different result if they were to have a rematch, except that Maidana may be able to knock him out next time.

Post: #179

Post: #180

His handlers messed him over. Why such the big jump so soon. Did they see Maidana as an easy mark? Stupid stupid decision. I doubt he clears 2M for the fight so what is the point. Clean out the lighter weights before you move up.

What weight would you give Broner naturally?

Post: #181

^ Excellent analysis mate.

I'm so happy that Broner has been exposed. I've had so many arguments with friends about him, and I've been vindicated. Truth is though, that even if he was the best thing since sliced bread, I've hated his personality since day one - even if it is just a persona to sell tickets.

He didn't do it with a tongue in his cheek like a Naz Hamed or Eubank, nor does he have talent to do it like Mayweather...and even Mayweather didn't literally throw money down the toilet like Broner. A thoroughly unlikable chap and I'm hoping he comes back more humble. Maybe it's a British thing, but I don't like the brash, overly arrogant type fighters.

I'm not sure a Ricky Hatton type personality (not persona, he's very 'real') would have been such a success in the States, he was too humble and not flashy enough. I say that because Brits (and I think Europeans too, although to a lesser extent depending on the country) hate on 'displayed' success, and prefer the plucky try-hard. Therefore, when we do have a winner, we expect humbleness. I'm not saying whether that's not a good thing or a bad thing, it's just a fact.

Post: #182

(12-15-2013 05:28 PM)TexasMade Wrote:  His handlers messed him over. Why such the big jump so soon. Did they see Maidana as an easy mark? Stupid stupid decision. I doubt he clears 2M for the fight so what is the point. Clean out the lighter weights before you move up.

What weight would you give Broner naturally?

He seems to be 126 naturally. He was able to make that weight until pretty recently. He had a fight, I believe last year, when he was supposed to fight at 126 and couldn't make weight. I believe that all the hype was about his expectations at 126, 130, and maybe 135. He obviously can't handle himself at 147 for the reasons I said above. If he goes back down, he has a future, although he will never be a Mayweather or even an Alvarez. If he stays at 147, he is completely screwed. I can name 15 guys who can definitely beat him at 147. Last night wasn't even close and Maidana may not even be in my top 5 at 147. Mayweather, Bradley, Marquez, and Pacquiao are all better and several guys are argueably better.

Did you guys see Alvarez's brother, Ricardo, on the undercard last night? He won a questionable majority decision on his U.S. debut. He should win a fair number of fights at 154, but I don't see him being a contender.

Post: #183

The plot thickens...

Post: #184

(12-15-2013 05:36 PM)Teedub Wrote:  The plot thickens...

I just read about that. Alex Ariza was also Brandon Rios' strength and conditioning coach and Rios just tested positive for some illegal substance for the Pacquiao fight. If he gave Maidana the same stuff before this fight, or even during the fight, the unanimous decision could be changed to a no contest. Maybe the joke's on us.

You guys can imagine what I'm going through right now as I did not get on that plane to Las Vegas two days ago to place five figures on Maidana. My understanding is that the odds were between +300 and +400 for people betting on Maidana. I still made a decent amount of money from betting on fights in 2013, but that extra $30,000, $40,000, or $50,000 would have been nice. As I said before, I just couldn't bet on a guy who is that poor defensively. I guess his opponent actually has to throw punches in order to capitalize on his poor defense.

Post: #185

Boys from Argentina are always UNDER-estimated!

Sergio Martinez was greatly under-estimated during his rise.

People think they are soft because they are white. That's why Broner's team thought they could easily beat Madiano. They are from the hood so its hard of them to conceptualize how a "spanish-white" guy could be harder than them..

What they failed to realize is...

Argentina has worse hoods than America.

Argentina boys fight for their lives!

Broner is rich. Madriano is/was poor.

A rich man should always be careful when fighting a poor man. The poor man has more to lose.

Post: #186

(12-16-2013 01:06 PM)Giovonny Wrote:  Boys from Argentina are always UNDER-estimated!

Sergio Martinez was greatly under-estimated during his rise.

People think they are soft because they are white. That's why Broner's team thought they could easily beat Madiano. They are from the hood so its hard of them to conceptualize how a "spanish-white" guy could be harder than them..

What they failed to realize is...

Argentina has worse hoods than America.

Argentina boys fight for their lives!

Broner is rich. Madriano is/was poor.

A rich man should always be careful when fighting a poor man. The poor man has more to lose.

A lot of boxing people think that in ten or fifteen years, the sport will be completely flooded with Argentines. The sport is supposedly becoming huge there and boxing gyms are filling up thanks in large part to the success of Martinez, Matthysse, and Maidana.

Post: #187

(12-15-2013 03:43 PM)Intl_Rasta Wrote:  I think B Hop hit it right on the head with his comments on AB.

when you said it was bhop commenting I was figuring it'd be at least 20 minutes long

Post: #188

There is a lot of rumors going around that Amir Khan will be Floyd's next opponent.

Post: #189

(12-16-2013 05:11 PM)Justice Beaver Wrote:  There is a lot of rumors going around that Amir Khan will be Floyd's next opponent.

The consensus is that those two will be fighting in early May. It makes absolutely no sense. Danny Garcia may very well have been offered the Mayweather fight and declined it. I think it's a smart move. I don't see much good coming out of him fighting a guy who is argueably the best boxer ever at a brand new weight class. The rumor is that Garcia will be fighting Victor Ortiz at 147 sometime in 2014, then possibly Mayweather in September 2014.

Post: #190

(12-16-2013 05:22 PM)Merenguero Wrote:  

(12-16-2013 05:11 PM)Justice Beaver Wrote:  There is a lot of rumors going around that Amir Khan will be Floyd's next opponent.

The consensus is that those two will be fighting in early May. It makes absolutely no sense. Danny Garcia may very well have been offered the Mayweather fight and declined it. I think it's a smart move. I don't see much good coming out of him fighting a guy who is argueably the best boxer ever at a brand new weight class. The rumor is that Garcia will be fighting Victor Ortiz at 147 sometime in 2014, then possibly Mayweather in September 2014.

Danny Garcia vs Mayweather would be a very interesting fight, but as I said in the other page, Bradley vs Mayweather would be the super fight of the year. I think most boxing fans would love to see that.

Just adding to the Amir Khan thing, does he really think he has the ability to beat Mayweather? I think this fight is ridiculous, Khan has a glass chin, and his last two fights were against journey men, before that, he got knocked out by Garcia! Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see him do well if he fights Mayweather, but I think he will get his ass handed to him come May, and he is nowhere near ready to challenge someone of Mayweather's technique and ability.

Post: #191

(12-16-2013 05:29 PM)Justice Beaver Wrote:  

(12-16-2013 05:22 PM)Merenguero Wrote:  

(12-16-2013 05:11 PM)Justice Beaver Wrote:  There is a lot of rumors going around that Amir Khan will be Floyd's next opponent.

The consensus is that those two will be fighting in early May. It makes absolutely no sense. Danny Garcia may very well have been offered the Mayweather fight and declined it. I think it's a smart move. I don't see much good coming out of him fighting a guy who is argueably the best boxer ever at a brand new weight class. The rumor is that Garcia will be fighting Victor Ortiz at 147 sometime in 2014, then possibly Mayweather in September 2014.

Danny Garcia vs Mayweather would be a very interesting fight, but as I said in the other page, Bradley vs Mayweather would be the super fight of the year. I think most boxing fans would love to see that.

Just adding to the Amir Khan thing, does he really think he has the ability to beat Mayweather? I think this fight is ridiculous, Khan has a glass chin, and his last two fights were against journey men, before that, he got knocked out by Garcia! Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see him do well if he fights Mayweather, but I think he will get his ass handed to him come May, and he is nowhere near ready to challenge someone of Mayweather's technique and ability.

Khan is a good offensive boxer and has heart, but he is pretty bad defensively and can't take a punch. I'm almost 100% sure that he can't last twelve full rounds with Mayweather. The odds with regard to the duration of the fight will likely be over/under either 8 1/2 or 9 1/2 rounds. Even though Mayweather is a slow starter, I think the under 9 1/2 rounds is a pretty safe bet. I rarely say that in any fight, but if Mayweather fights a guy who is really prone go getting hit (i.e. Gatti, Angel Manfredy), he tends to end things early. On a side note, I don't think the Manfredy fight should have been stopped when it was. That guy had a ton of potential, but I think he got tired of boxing or something.

Post: #192

(12-15-2013 05:19 PM)Merenguero Wrote:  Here are my thoughts on Broner. First off, the guy who had the fight 115-110 couldn't have been watching the fight. With the two knockdowns and the point taken away from Maidana for the headbutt, 115-110 would mean that he gave four rounds to Broner. There is no way Broner won four rounds in that fight. A shutout for Maidana would have been 119-109 with the knockdowns and the headbutt. If you wanted to be generous and give Broner two rounds, the score would be 117-111. One of the three judges was close to that score. The guy who scored the fight 115-110 has made at least two bad decisions in the past that I know about, so watch for him. His name is Stanley Christodoulou. I can't say that he is another C.J. Ross, but I could definitely see him screwing some people over.

Broner's problem, among other things, is that he took a huge jump from 135 to 147 without even having one fight at 140. He was pretty effective, though not an elite boxer, at 135, 130, and weights below 130. The reason why he was pretty effective is that his power was much better against smaller guys. He was able to use this power to overcompensate for the fact that he does not throw a lot of punches and he is not great defensively. Months ago, when I saw that Broner had signed to fight Paulie Malignaggi at 147, I thought it was some kind of joke. He was jumping up two weight classes and very recently had been fighting at even lower weights, 130 and 126. When he fought Malignaggi, it was clear that his power would not be effective at 147 and that he shouldn't be fighting in that weight class. I'm 100% sure he could make 140, but he may also struggle there, although it is a much less competitive division than 147. What he needs to do is go back down to 135 or even 130. The only guy who has a really good chance at beating him at 130 is Mikey Garcia. I would actually bet on Garcia in that one. He was making 130 and even 126 not so long ago, so I believe he could go down two or even three weight classes. If he stays at 147, he is screwed.

Broner did say after the fight that he wants a rematch with Maidana. I see no different result if they were to have a rematch, except that Maidana may be able to knock him out next time.

I agree with most of this, but I don't think it's a scandal that one judge gave Broner four rounds. One of Maidana's knockdowns occurred in the same round where he heat butted Broner, thus cancelling the knockdown. There were a few rounds where even though Maidana wasn't being dominated, Broner would keep him at bay with a stiff jab and a few clean punches with the right hand.

However, I think the ref was way too lenient on Broner, and should have deducted points for Broner doing the same shit he was being warned about over and over again.

I agree about the weight class thing. Broner struggled against Malignaggi (who is not even elite) to where if the latter got the W that night, it wouldn't really have surprised anyone. A case could have been made for him actually winning most of those rounds. It's just neither side could damage the other convincingly enough.

I also agree there being no reason for a rematch with Maidana. Maidana unanimously won that night, without question or controversy, so there's really no reason for a rematch. There's no money in in either. Broner has to ask for one because his career is at stake, but Maidana can take on other promising fighters and eventually Mayweather for a big payday that he has rightfully earned. In fact, since Mayweather calls Broner his little brother, they could frame the fight as "Big Brother's Revenge" or something.

Broner should have chilled and dominated the smaller weight classes for a few years before moving up. He's still young and has plenty of time. Shouldn't have let his ego get the best of him.

Post: #193

I have this weird gut feeling that Khan will beat Mayweather.

A bit like those two defeats in a row (including one of the worse KO's I have seen) that Pacquiao took. Nobody was expecting that until it happened.

I dunno' just one of those weird hunches. Anything can happen in boxing.

Post: #194

(12-16-2013 05:54 PM)cardguy Wrote:  I have this weird gut feeling that Khan will beat Mayweather.

A bit like those two defeats in a row (including one of the worse KO's I have seen) that pacquiao took. Nobody was expecting that until it happened.

I dunno' just one of those weird hunches. Anything can happen in boxing.

The odds will be greatly in your favor, so if you could afford to go to Las Vegas and put even a couple thousand on Khan, you could make some serious money if you are right. I just don't see it. Khan isn't nearly as bad as some people are making him out to be, but I really don't think he is even in Mayweather's league. After seeing that last Mayweather fight, it is very clear to me that there is no guy from 140 to 154 who even stands a remote chance at beating Mayweather and even less of a chance now that C.J. Ross is out of the picture.

Post: #195

It is legal to bet in the UK. So - I could bet from here.

Your opinion is only as valid as the money you are prepared to bet. So I will think about it.

Post: #196

(12-16-2013 06:07 PM)cardguy Wrote:  It is legal to bet in the UK. So - I could bet from here.

Your opinion is only as valid as the money you are prepared to bet. So I will think about it.

When I was picking up my money at the MGM Grand following the last Mayweather fight, I said to the lady at the sportsbook, who knows me on a first name basis, "I'll see again you in December. I'll be putting $10,000 on Maidana. I'm betting on the underdog for once." After thinking about it, I wasn't 100% sure and didn't take that flight. Sometimes we just need to trust our instincts.

Post: #197

Yeah - I need to write a post on this.

It is all about risk and reward. You can only have one with the other.

If there isn't a part of you that thinks you are making a stupid decision - then you are wasting your time. The only way to make money is to scare yourself.

Alot of hedge-fund managers have said the same thing. They said their best trades have all being the ones they sweated over for weeks on end, convincing themselves they were making a stupid decision.

------------------

There are 4 things you need to make money.

RISK, LUCK, WORK, SKILL.

If you are not using alot of at least one of those options - then you will never hit it big.

Go big or go home.

Post: #198

@Merenguero - Do you bet alot? and do you make money from it? Equally - do you know of other guys who make alot of money from betting?

Post: #199

(12-16-2013 06:20 PM)cardguy Wrote:  @Merenguero - Do you bet alot? and do you make money from it? Equally - do you know of other guys who make alot of money from betting?

I don't bet a lot. I only bet on boxing and only in Las Vegas. Las Vegas is presently the only place in the United States where you can legally bet on boxing. My home state, New Jersey, is seriously pushing to legalize sportsbooks, but everybody seems to be screwing them over. I believe the issue is now in the hands of the United States Supreme Court. If sportsbooks are legalized there, I can just drive to the casinos and stay at home. I just started doing this last year, which the first time I ever set foot in Las Vegas. So far I have not lost a dime and have made a decent amount of money. Last October, I paid the last debt which I had in the world from the money I made betting on the Sergio Martinez/Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. fight. Since then, I have been completely debt-free. I try to watch as many boxing videos on youtube as I can in order to understand each boxer's strengths and weaknesses and how they may fair against other boxers. I read all that I can on the sport and always try to learn more. I would never place a bet unless I had a thorough knowledge of the fighters involved and were very confident that the person on whom I were betting would win the fight. I have never met anyone who has made any money gambling and I would never think about betting on another sport. The only other sport I understand is tennis and you would have to be a complete idiot to bet on tennis. There are way too many upsets. All players (i.e. Agassi, Sampras, Federer) have lost to no-name opponents many times.

Post: #200

The way I look at betting is to 'wait for the bet to come to you.'

You don't have to be out betting all the time. But every once in awhile something pops up and you go for it.

You can bet on anything here in the UK - personally I think politics is one of the easier fields to bet on. But is annoying since you can mostly only bet every 4 years or so.