Post: #51

Trade of the year was shorting Netflix when it was at ~$300.

For next year, I would look to be heavily invested in oil. When the US pulls out of Iraq at the end of the year leaving only a couple thousand troops behind, that country is going to erupt into civil war. You have Iran fomenting discontent among the Shia in southern Iraq. You have the the Turks and Kurds on the brink of war in northern Iraq. Without US bribes to warlords and boots on the ground to keep the peace, it's all going to hell.

Post: #52

Any thoughts on the direction of the market in Dec? I am at a 0% return for the period 2008-2012. Sadly, this is a significant outperformance of the market.

Post: #53

One of the best books ever written on trading is "The Logical Trader" by Mark Fisher.

http://www.amazon.com/Logical-Trader-Mar...375&sr=1-1


Also, to wet the appetite, if you want to see someone trading futures and making gains of up to 200k a day , you've got to check out the following site...

http://www.tradeitdontdateit.com and then go to his livestream. This guy trades live during US market hours, you can watch his charts and see his order entries and exits... and his account balancefor the day. I was skeptical at first but I've been following him for quite a while and I'm 100 % sure he's not a fake although his website is a bit hyped up. It's free.

That being said, trading is one of the hardest things one can ever master.

Post: #54

word.
i've unfortunately given my share back to the market(for tuition)...and used practically every indicator and system know to man....only to settle on basic price action/naked chart reading.

(12-04-2011 06:07 PM)sheesh Wrote:  One of the best books ever written on trading is "The Logical Trader" by Mark Fisher.

http://www.amazon.com/Logical-Trader-Mar...375&sr=1-1


Also, to wet the appetite, if you want to see someone trading futures and making gains of up to 200k a day , you've got to check out the following site...

http://www.tradeitdontdateit.com and then go to his livestream. This guy trades live during US market hours, you can watch his charts and see his order entries and exits... and his account balancefor the day. I was skeptical at first but I've been following him for quite a while and I'm 100 % sure he's not a fake although his website is a bit hyped up. It's free.

That being said, trading is one of the hardest things one can ever master.

Post: #55

I'm inclined to go short after Friday on the assumption the market will slowly realize the European plan is not a magic bullet, China is slowing, Europe is contracting and Japan and the US remain stagnant. I'm not seeing much reason for optimism over the next quarter.

Post: #56

Looks like I was one day too late to short the market.

Post: #57

Fuck that

I am on commodities and building up my 401K to take out a loan for my Real Estate investments. The returns are abysmal and CDs and savings accounts are even worse.

Post: #58

Shorting equities since Friday has worked OK. I would have been much better off waiting until yesterday to get in but have avoided damage by averaging down.

Post: #59

Just short the euro until it goes under

Post: #60

(01-07-2010 11:45 PM)kerouac Wrote:  
Got your attention didn't I?

Are any of you successful stock traders by any chance? If so, are there any trading literature recommendations you can make?

I haven't read this entire thread, but I work at a Macro Hedge Fund as an analyst/trader. My advice on trading is that it is one of the few things that you can't really fly by the seat of your pants and expect to be succesful.

There are a lot of different things that drive markets and understanding them all takes a lot of time, effort and intelligence. For example, right now (over the last few months) with the Euro debt crisis, the markets for nearly everything have been trading on technicals and have been very range bound. A succesful trader was moving in and out of long/short positions every week or so during this period.

The Euro debt crisis will continue to dictate market movements until we figure out what the endstate will look like. At this point it seems as though Italy is going to be a huge problem. They are such a large player in Europe and if they can't get a handle on their debt the Euro will likely go kaput. The Greeks are still an issue as well, how much relief are they going to get and are they trying to slow play and then drop the Euro and re-adopt the drachma once they have enough relief to go it alone?

As far as literature, here are a few reccomendations:

Soros: The Alchemy of Finance - Great book details his trading and gives you a good idea how traders think.

Illmanen: Expected Returns

Mandelbrot: The Misbehavior of Financial Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence - Not as math heavy as the title suggests

Taleb: The Black Swan

And of course there are the seminal papers on Modern Portfolio Theory and the Fama-French framework that every investor should be familiar with.

Edit: I forgot to mention that you should read Frank Fabozzi's Fixed Income book, just buy an older edition... it will serve to familiarize you with all sorts of FI instruments and also Hull's Options Futures and Derivatives is essential if you want to use these instruments to trade or for hedging.

Post: #61

Get the market wizards books by Jack Schwagger

Reminiscence of a stock operator

How to make money in stocks by william o'neil

One up on wallstreet

Getting started in technical analysis

Getting started in fundamental analysis

Day trading the currency market

google "babypips" website.

these are introductory, after you've developed familiarity with these...then...there are more books and methodology and refinement to handle.

Post: #62

Dude, seriously?

these are much more advance stuff. Especially HULL's books on option and other derivatives. What is the point of a beginner immersing themselves in that...heck, what is his mathematical knowledge level like to grasp/understand those books?

He is better off with preliminaries. Not books like HULL's or Penman financial statement analysis and security valuations. Let him start with something simple like "reminiscence" or william o'neill "how to make money in stocks".

(12-31-2011 03:49 PM)CGS Wrote:  

(01-07-2010 11:45 PM)kerouac Wrote:  
Got your attention didn't I?

Are any of you successful stock traders by any chance? If so, are there any trading literature recommendations you can make?

I haven't read this entire thread, but I work at a Macro Hedge Fund as an analyst/trader. My advice on trading is that it is one of the few things that you can't really fly by the seat of your pants and expect to be succesful.

There are a lot of different things that drive markets and understanding them all takes a lot of time, effort and intelligence. For example, right now (over the last few months) with the Euro debt crisis, the markets for nearly everything have been trading on technicals and have been very range bound. A succesful trader was moving in and out of long/short positions every week or so during this period.

The Euro debt crisis will continue to dictate market movements until we figure out what the endstate will look like. At this point it seems as though Italy is going to be a huge problem. They are such a large player in Europe and if they can't get a handle on their debt the Euro will likely go kaput. The Greeks are still an issue as well, how much relief are they going to get and are they trying to slow play and then drop the Euro and re-adopt the drachma once they have enough relief to go it alone?

As far as literature, here are a few reccomendations:

Soros: The Alchemy of Finance - Great book details his trading and gives you a good idea how traders think.

Illmanen: Expected Returns

Mandelbrot: The Misbehavior of Financial Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence - Not as math heavy as the title suggests

Taleb: The Black Swan

And of course there are the seminal papers on Modern Portfolio Theory and the Fama-French framework that every investor should be familiar with.

Edit: I forgot to mention that you should read Frank Fabozzi's Fixed Income book, just buy an older edition... it will serve to familiarize you with all sorts of FI instruments and also Hull's Options Futures and Derivatives is essential if you want to use these instruments to trade or for hedging.

Post: #63

Any people here actually know if this guy is legit or just creating a fan following?

http://www.timothysykes.com/2013/08/intr...tock-2013/

Post: #64

The best trading forum is "Big Mike's Trading Forum". The website has a download section where you can get free indicators and software for trading.

https://www.bigmiketrading.com/

Post: #65

(09-20-2013 09:18 AM)xmlenigma Wrote:  Any people here actually know if this guy is legit or just creating a fan following?

http://www.timothysykes.com/2013/08/intr...tock-2013/

yeah his strategy is sound despite his annoying personality.

He's shorting pumps with defined risk/reward...often 1-10 or 1-20 which is outstanding.

Biggest challenge is getting borrows on the shorts so you need to setup a bunch of accounts to lock in shares to short.

Post: #66

(09-20-2013 09:18 AM)xmlenigma Wrote:  Any people here actually know if this guy is legit or just creating a fan following?

http://www.timothysykes.com/2013/08/intr...tock-2013/

I dont even think he trades anymore. IIRC he just sells books now.

Post: #67

Where is a good place to start learning about trading and the market?

Seems pretty straight forward, but I'd like to have a better idea about some of the tricks and traps to watch out for.

Also, do micro/penny stocks behave in similar ways to the more valuable ones or is it a different world?

Post: #68

Stay away from penny stocks, it's a gamble.

I'd recommend Brian Marber's book - Marber on Markets: How to Make Money from Charts. The guy has years of experience with technical analysis and outlines what has worked for him and what hasn't. He cuts through all the bullshit and keeps it relatively simple. He uses only a few technical analysis indicators and talks about how to identify trends and when trends have been broken. One of the best books I've read on technical analysis.

If you get into trading from the charts my advice would be to keep it simple. A lot of people start out using loads of technical indicators and over complicating things. I know I did, but what worked for me was keeping it simple. Looking for support/resistance, trends, breakouts and maybe using one technical indicator like the RSI.

Post: #69

If you are a complete newbie watch bloomberg tv (free to watch online) or CNBC for a while just to get a feel for the markets and the terms that are used.

Once you get into trading though switch that stuff off. It messes with your mind and makes you deviate from you trading strategy

Post: #70

(09-24-2013 07:18 AM)RonnieB Wrote:  Stay away from penny stocks, it's a gamble.

I'd recommend Brian Marber's book - Marber on Markets: How to Make Money from Charts. The guy has years of experience with technical analysis and outlines what has worked for him and what hasn't. He cuts through all the bullshit and keeps it relatively simple. He uses only a few technical analysis indicators and talks about how to identify trends and when trends have been broken. One of the best books I've read on technical analysis.

If you get into trading from the charts my advice would be to keep it simple. A lot of people start out using loads of technical indicators and over complicating things. I know I did, but what worked for me was keeping it simple. Looking for support/resistance, trends, breakouts and maybe using one technical indicator like the RSI.

Thought it may have been like that - I'm assuming every beginner and their dog would rather jump on low cost/risk - really making the risk higher since you're basically trading with people who have no idea wtf they're doing. Could be a decent market to exploit, though, if you feel like playing roulette?

I've done a lot of math and statistics work, so I'm pretty good with numbers/trends. I'm going to keep it simple until I've got the funds to experiment though (even then, if it don't need fixing..).

I'll check out that book soon, cheers for the recommendation

Post: #71

@RONNIE and @ ARCHITEKT.

I wont recommend CNBC or bloomberg. In my humble opinion, reading a good stocks book will suffice.

There was a time when CNBC had "fast money" with dylan ratigan. That was the only good financial show...you have five active traders giving reasons and rationales as to why they plan to take a trade...with dylan ratigan regulating and moderating the discussions...and you get to see the thought process of these 5 people....Also, when they get it wrong, dylan ratigan will air their stock failures.

On penny stocks....i will send you, architekt, a PM....let me just say that penny stocks are difficult/dangerous/addictive. scottrade is the best broker for penny stocks...T/S and level 2 is also important in reading penny stocks....the spread can be as wide as the grand canyon. The liquidity is sporadic....and of course, an insane amount of manipulation by individuals, pump-and-dumpers, and marketmarkers. I can show you where all the bodies are buried.

Fundamentals and Technical analysis are both required(in my humble opinion) to trade stocks(micro, macro, bigcaps or blue chips). Are there people that trade successfully based on technicals alone? yes. I have done it before....But ignoring the larger macro picture will limit your potential gain, in my view. However, for beginners, i will recommend technical analysis familiarity, first.

And there are people that focused on just one or two stocks and live and breath them. They develop an unconscious rhythm for it....shootanappleofmyhead is such a lad. He scalps AAPL and sometimes RIMM....in and out...the downside is the limited diversifications and of course, it will only work on highly liquid stocks like AAPL.

Timothy sykes is annoying....American hedgefund? wtf? not sure he just wasnt a one-hit wonder. In certain countries, you cannot short stocks under $5, if you are retail trader...i dont think timothy sykes registers himself as such, that is why he is able to borrow funds and short stocks under $5. In europe, you may be able to CFD(contract for difference).

Anyways, on how to get started in stocks/trading....

Here is a repost:
______________

Reading materials. I will recommend these(below). Curled from my own personal experience(these are books that i have actually read and applied to my own personal trading) :

Level 1:

Market Wizards Books by Jack d schwager.(3 series of books)

Reminiscence of a stock operator by edwin lefevre.

(i will recommend you start here first...it will give you a taste of what is to come. of what lies ahead of you. the failures and triumphs.)

Level 2:

How to make money in the stocks market by william o'neal(also subscribe to IBD)

One up on wallstreet by peter lynch

methods of a wallsteet master by victor sperandeo

Trading in the zone by mark douglas

Level 3:

Fire your stock analyst by harry domash

you can be a stock market genius by joel greenblatt (silly title, brilliant book)

Options made easy by Guy Cohen

The Bible of Options strategies by Guy Cohen

Level 3b:

for technical analysis: Getting started in technical analysis by jack schwager; Encyclopedia of chart patterns by Thomas Bulkowski; candlesticks by steven nison.

Level 4:

Handbook of Fixed Income securities by Frank J. Fabozzi

Options, Futures, and Other derivatives by John C Hull.

Post: #72

Watching a couple of youtube vids... This literally seems like the easiest way to make money ever conceived

Post: #73

Anyways, i will try and provide some links here...these are far from comprehensive...but it should get anybody going. Some of the sites are multi-functional: You can search for news and also do stocks screens and also do dividend search, etc...

Preliminary stocks education:
http://www.informedtrades.com/f114/
http://www.investopedia.com/?viewed=1
(preferably, get some of these books...start reading from level 1)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS/CHARTS:
http://www.freestockcharts.com
http://www.bigcharts.com
http://www.barchart.com
http://www.stockcharts.com
http://www.stockta.com/
http://thepatternsite.com/studies.html
http://www.chartpatterns.com

CANDLESTICKS:
http://www.candlesticker.com

COMPANY'S FINANCIALS/FUNDAMENTALS/SEC FILINGS:
http://www.financials.morningstar.com
http://www.portfolio123.com
http://www.10kwizard.com/main.php
http://www.secform4.com/sec-filings.htm
http://www.secfilings.com/
http://www.hoovers.com
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks
http://www.smartmoney.com
(All the fundamental links you will need you will find it in APPENDIX A of harry domash "fire your stock analyst" book. That list is exhaustive.)

EARNINGS/EARNING CALENDER:
http://www.rttnews.com/Calendar/Earnings.aspx
http://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar.asp

CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY NEWS/RECORDS SEARCH/ DOCUMENTS SEARCH:
http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/bankrupt.htm
http://www.coordinatedlegal.com/SecretaryOfState.html

DIVIDENDS:
http://www.dividenddetective.com/

STOCK SEARCH/SCREENER:
http://www.stockhouse.com/Portfolio/Stock-Screener
http://financials.morningstar.com
http://www.portfolio123.com
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/most-active.aspx
https://usequities.nyx.com/markets/nyse-mkt-equities

SHORT LIST/SHORT SQUEEZE:
http://www.finra.org/
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/aspx/regsho.aspx
http://www.highshortinterest.com/all/
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/

LOW FLOAT STOCKS:
http://www.lowfloat.com/

LEVEL 2 VIDEO:
http://stockhideout.com/images/flash/level.html

BUSINESS NEWS/PRESS RELEASES:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/
http://news.google.com/?ned=us&topic=b
http://home.businesswire.com
http://www.bloomberg.com
http://www.reuters.com
http://www.financialtimes.com
http://www.wsj.com
http://www.investors.com
http://online.barrons.com/public/main

WORLD NEWS AGGREGRATE:
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/World+News

BIOTECH/CLINICAL TRIAL NEWS:
http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/
http://www.biomedreports.com/
http://biohealthinvestor.com/
http://www.biospace.com
http://www.eyeonfda.com/

STOCK MARKET HOLIDAY:
http://www.allstocks.com/html/stock_mark...idays.html

anyways, this list should cover a few bases.... I clearly didnt include anything on the bond market, commodity futures, forex or any global macro stuff....the list above is just for stocks(and i have tried to avoid resource links to penny stocks.)...anyways, hopefully, people find these useful.

(09-24-2013 09:45 AM)Architekt Wrote:  Watching a couple of youtube vids... This literally seems like the easiest way to make money ever conceived

With all due respect...it is one of the most DIFFICULT WAY to make money. You will see. Remember that i warned you. Best of luck on your journey. It is possible, but challenging and difficult.

Post: #74

Certainly, I'm no expert, yet it seems that for anyone who may not want to invest more than an hour or so a week into researching and staying on top of his stock market investments (and or trading) then mutual funds or various kinds of index funds would be potentially better vehicles for dollar cost averaging - meaning just putting in a small amount of money into a diversified set of various index funds on a periodic basis, maybe once or twice a month.

Maybe it is more difficult to become rich with these kinds of index and/or mutual funds (b/c someone is taking a cut, especially if it is a mutual fund), but at least, we do not have to become too technically sophisticated or to spend a lot of time trying to figure out which stocks and when to trade... we just rebalance from time to time, maybe 2-3 times a year, at most.

I just noticed that my Capital One - online account allows me to add an additional investment account and thereafter I can make stock trades for $6.95 a pop or I could buy no load, no transaction costs mutual funds without any transaction fees or another possibility is that there are some mutual funds that do have transaction fees - looks like $19.95 trading fee. In reviewing the various investment options, I still think that there are so many mutual funds available within the no cost, no fee arena that it could take some time just figuring out which ones of the funds to go with. Let's just say to pick several funds and then invest maybe $1,000 to $10,000 per fund and then invest $10-$500 per month dollar cost averaging into each funds - I believe they allow automated bi-weekly investments with the no load mutual funds, but I am not sure if that can be done with the stock funds? Maybe start out with 5-10 of various mutual funds that allow for no cost dollar cost averaging investing, and then adjust the quantity of funds as needed or as the newbie investor learns more about the funds?

Why not just do something like this? Can still make good money and that money would be fairly passive money, no? With my stock market investments, I seem to be striving for a certain level of passive money, personally, if possible.

Post: #75

Not to try to take this of course, but would you guys be staying the market long term? Or time to get out? Unless you are day trading/short investment windows. I am long in the market and just wondering if I should be taking the profit and run? Thanks.