Post: #1

It's the goddamn Police State:

More people moved out of California in 2011 than moved in, according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau, signaling that the Democrat-run state’s economic woes continue to drive residents away.

Most statisticians attribute California’s net loss of 100,000 people last year to its high cost of living, increased population density and troubling unemployment rate.

The widening middle class in Mexico is also encouraging some immigrants to remain in that country instead of moving to California.

Texas — home to lower taxes, less regulation and what the Manhattan Institute calls a “labor pool with the right skills at the right price” — is one of the most attractive destinations for companies departing from California, according to the Census Bureau.

California has been hemorrhaging residents since 2005, but some experts say good news is on the horizon.

“We expect over the next couple of years that we will add jobs,” Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation chief economist Robert Kleinhenz told NBC News.

“This year, we’ve added jobs in California at a faster pace than in the nation as a whole. So, we are moving in right direction. As that happens, we’ll see the migration numbers turn around some.”

The Census Bureau reports that 468,428 people have moved to California from other states, and 269,772 have moved to the state from other countries


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/12/12/census...z2F8vFzinN

Post: #2

Part of the reason people are leaving California is jobs. California had very high unemployment until recently.

Another reason is taxes and/or regulation. For instance, Measure B that was passed in Los Angeles County is essentially driving out the porn industry from Los Angeles.

California, especially on the coast, is a cool place to live, but the taxes and regulation are getting to be too much. Hopefully things will change in the future.

Post: #3

Mass immigration, legal and illegal, and unskilled in particular, is the main factor here, but everyone is too cowardly or willfully blind to talk about it. So people just talk about the negative consequences of mass immigration, like traffic, higher population density, high tax rates, etc.

It's like a fat person complaining about how he is at risk of getting diabetes, how he can't make it up stairs, or how no cute girls want to sleep with him. So he decides to... take medications to stave off diabetes, get special orthotic shoes to ease his load, and pay prostitutes for sex. He's trying to address a thousand negative consequences of being fat, without addressing the root cause.

High tax rates: unskilled immigrants consume more in benefits than they pay in taxes (eg, ~$15-20k per student per year in public schools). Plus the left now has a super majority in California, so even more taxes are sure to come.
Traffic: Higher population density
Housing: Higher population density. Plus there are so many run-down areas full of poor people, that middle class people crowd into the remaining nice spots. White yuppies want to send their kids to majority white "good schools." South of Marina Del Rey, it's a total wasteland if you go more than two miles from the beach.

Also, restrictive land use laws that limit the addition of more housing exacerbates the cost of housing. And these are policies favored by the left - red states don't have this problem as much.

Post: #4

(12-15-2012 12:59 PM)The Texas Prophet Wrote:  Another reason is taxes and/or regulation.

Taxes were one of many reasons that California is in my rearview.

Plus, they just passed another law that raises taxes on $250,000 and above.

It is impossible to live there with the taxes. There is absolutely zero point in living there unless you are forced too.

Plus, I hate the Police State. The drinking laws, smoking laws suck.

Also, I hate how people are becoming so institutionalized there. No where as the anti-smoking thing taken such root.

Everyone is turning into mindless slaves in California and they don't even realize it.

Post: #5

I wonder what California is going to look like in 15 years. I'd like to see a number of how many high skilled folks are leaving the State and how many low-skilled folks are entering.

I was born there and have so many found memories, and American literature is abound with stories on how incredible a place California is/was - the best nature in the country, the most exciting cities, best climates, all climates, most progressive and open-minded people.

But there is so much negative news coming out of there it's impossible not become disheartened, to see one's homeland laid waste by the forces of post-modernism. When the masters in the Ivory Tower refuse to listen, what are the people to do?

@ Basil: you're usually pretty good at discerning random from representative. How do you think average people on the ground are taking this change?

@ Gmanifesto: I sympathize, but I can't help but laugh. Did you not argue rather vehemently in the run-up to the election (or was that MikeCF?) that more liberal places were cooler, either by causation or coincidence? And a 52 percent marginal tax rate on income is not bad at all, when considering certain European countries. Denmark has a marginal tax rate of 56 percent that kicks in at earnings above USD75,000 and consumption taxes come out at about 30%, assuming you don't buy cars or stuff like that. In total, the marginal tax rate for a lot of people is close to 70%.

Anyways, so much for free-thinking and pot-smoking hippies and their rebellion against bourgeoisie complacency.

Post: #6

I wish I could disagree. I was born and raised here, and I've seen my hometown go to absolute shit. I have fond memories of a relatively quiet town where both my parents had their own businesses and were quite successful. It was safe (still is), the schools were great, there were orange groves everywhere and it was more or less a pretty awesome place to grow up.

I go back there every few years and it blows me away how developed it's gotten. Thousands of acres of old agricultural land, all the beautiful orange and avocado orchards, has been bulldozed and rezoned for residential use and it's nothing but horrible looking tract housing now so more lower-and-middle-income people can pile into the city. The city counsel literally sold the town out to outside developers. Of course none of those people actual work in the city; they all use it as a commuting point to get to L.A., so they literally contribute nothing.

There are still some beautiful places to live in California. It's a huge state and there are some nice remote areas still. But from a financial standpoint it makes absolutely zero sense to move here.

Post: #7

(12-15-2012 01:39 PM)ElJefe Wrote:  But there is so much negative news coming out of there it's impossible not become disheartened, to see one's homeland laid waste by the forces of post-modernism.

Are there French lit-crit theorists raping and pillaging San Francisco or something? What does that even mean, 'the forces of post-modernism?' Why not just outright say what you really mean?

As for the police state, the left and right don't really differ on it. You'll have people who question it, but they're not consistently right or left. Also, the higher the crime rate, the more people will vote for a police state to protect themselves. So importing groups of immigrants with higher than white crime rates will probably just work to bolster the police state. Or you have the places that hate the cops AND have low-crime, and they inevitably become a morass of corruption and lawlessness, eg Compton. But good rap.

LA is hard to generalize about - you always have to break it down to groups. Whites and Latinos, for instance, tend to occupy such different worlds here in LA that talking about an average is meaningless. It'd be like lumping football players and marathon runners together and asking their average weight. One big effect on the middle class is that to cope with the cost of living, people delay marriage and childbearing, live in distant suburbs once married with kids, or move out of California altogether, which is what you're seeing here.

Post: #8

(12-15-2012 01:44 PM)basilransom Wrote:  

(12-15-2012 01:39 PM)ElJefe Wrote:  But there is so much negative news coming out of there it's impossible not become disheartened, to see one's homeland laid waste by the forces of post-modernism.

Are there French lit-crit theorists raping and pillaging San Francisco or something? What does that even mean, 'the forces of post-modernism?' Why not just outright say what you really mean?

Because I wanted to avoid getting Athlone to come in here thumping his chest as long as possible in the spirit of forum harmony, and I already used the word progressive once in my post, so... but anyways, check this out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postmodernism

But I mean minority-rights groups, yeah...

Post: #9

(12-15-2012 01:23 PM)basilransom Wrote:  Mass immigration, legal and illegal, and unskilled in particular, is the main factor here, but everyone is too cowardly or willfully blind to talk about it. So people just talk about the negative consequences of mass immigration, like traffic, higher population density, high tax rates, etc.

It's like a fat person complaining about how he is at risk of getting diabetes, how he can't make it up stairs, or how no cute girls want to sleep with him. So he decides to... take medications to stave off diabetes, get special orthotic shoes to ease his load, and pay prostitutes for sex. He's trying to address a thousand negative consequences of being fat, without addressing the root cause.

High tax rates: unskilled immigrants consume more in benefits than they pay in taxes (eg, ~$15-20k per student per year in public schools). Plus the left now has a super majority in California, so even more taxes are sure to come.
Traffic: Higher population density
Housing: Higher population density. Plus there are so many run-down areas full of poor people, that middle class people crowd into the remaining nice spots. White yuppies want to send their kids to majority white "good schools." South of Marina Del Rey, it's a total wasteland if you go more than two miles from the beach.

Also, restrictive land use laws that limit the addition of more housing exacerbates the cost of housing. And these are policies favored by the left - red states don't have this problem as much.

Net immigration from Mexico has come down to zero. Also, with the Dems in complete control the legislature and governership, there are aren't going to be any deportations or other draconian laws passed.

The current problem is California has a lot of obligations ($$$$$) to schools, universities, public sector unions, etc., during a time that businesses are leaving California in droves.

Not a good mixture--> Shrinking tax base and increasing taxes and regulation.

Post: #10

(12-15-2012 01:39 PM)ElJefe Wrote:  I wonder what California is going to look like in 15 years. I'd like to see a number of how many high skilled folks are leaving the State and how many low-skilled folks are entering.

I was born there and have so many found memories, and American literature is abound with stories on how incredible a place California is/was - the best nature in the country, the most exciting cities, best climates, all climates, most progressive and open-minded people.

But there is so much negative news coming out of there it's impossible not become disheartened, to see one's homeland laid waste by the forces of post-modernism. When the masters in the Ivory Tower refuse to listen, what are the people to do?

@ Basil: you're usually pretty good at discerning random from representative. How do you think average people on the ground are taking this change?

@ Gmanifesto: I sympathize, but I can't help but laugh. Did you not argue rather vehemently in the run-up to the election (or was that MikeCF?) that more liberal places were cooler, either by causation or coincidence? And a 52 percent marginal tax rate on income is not bad at all, when considering certain European countries. Denmark has a marginal tax rate of 56 percent that kicks in at earnings above USD75,000 and consumption taxes come out at about 30%, assuming you don't buy cars or stuff like that. In total, the marginal tax rate for a lot of people is close to 70%.

Anyways, so much for free-thinking and pot-smoking hippies and their rebellion against bourgeoisie complacency.

Let's not get carried away here. California is not burning to the ground. It has its problems, but it is still a cool place to visit and there isn't another state in the USA quite like it.

The main problem is that Californians are going to have to make some hard choices in the future regarding their finances when it sets in that just "raising taxes" is not the solution.

Post: #11

(12-15-2012 01:49 PM)The Texas Prophet Wrote:  Net immigration from Mexico has come down to zero. Also, with the Dems in complete control the legislature and governership, there are aren't going to be any deportations or other draconian laws passed.

The current problem is California has a lot of obligations ($$$$$) to schools, universities, public sector unions, etc., during a time that businesses are leaving California in droves.

Not a good mixture--> Shrinking tax base and increasing taxes and regulation.

Immigration may have dropped, but you still have the 'backlog' from the past 30-50 years. The people who immigrated in 2000 don't just disappear.

I don't have any ill will towards immigrants. Most are probably hardworking, decent people. But that doesn't mean their presence en masse will benefit native residents.

Yeah, California has some amazing places to live, no doubt. The best spots aren't really in decline, as big money is getting bigger, and can keep things in their favor. More middle of the road places are definitely sliding. My dad told me how the local high school he went to is now a terrible school, that neither he nor his classmates would go to if they were teens now.

Post: #12

Though it doubt it will swing hard right, I think the state has reached peak progressivism. The best example I can cite is that every liberal prop passed in the last election EXCEPT the one for labeling genetically engineered foods. Every year there are fewer Northern European liberals and more Mexican liberals who don't exactly fit the bill of your average American Democrat or Republican.

Post: #13

The state is very divided regionally. Politically, the 9-county Bay Area is distinct from the rest of the state. I don't think the progressive and liberal nature of that region will ever really change. Southern California is more unpredictable politically. San Diego County and Orange County lean more Republican and LA has a fondness for actors regardless of political stripe. I think the police state effect is very strong in Socal. I also know that people who end up moving out of there tend not to return. Much of the interior of the state is more conservative but also sparsely populated so its significance is irrelevant for the most part.

Post: #14

(12-15-2012 02:17 PM)EisenBarde Wrote:  Though it doubt it will swing hard right, I think the state has reached peak progressivism. The best example I can cite is that every liberal prop passed in the last election EXCEPT the one for labeling genetically engineered foods. Every year there are fewer Northern European liberals and more Mexican liberals who don't exactly fit the bill of your average American Democrat or Republican.

Prop 34 (death penalty) and Prop 38 (sliding scale tax increase) didn't pass as well.

I agree that the increase in Mexican-American population in California means that it won't be as left wing (at least on social issues) in the future.

Post: #15

38 was just the red-headed stepbrother of prop 30, nobody really supported it because it was a bit contradictory.

(12-15-2012 02:23 PM)Hencredible Casanova Wrote:  Much of the interior of the state is more conservative but also sparsely populated so its significance is irrelevant for the most part.

Don't count out the Central Valley. Tech and Film can be moved nearly anywhere the infrastructure suits them, but Ag will remain in California as long as there is water and arable land.

Post: #16

(12-15-2012 02:32 PM)EisenBarde Wrote:  38 was just the red-headed stepbrother of prop 30, nobody really supported it because it was a bit contradictory.

(12-15-2012 02:23 PM)Hencredible Casanova Wrote:  Much of the interior of the state is more conservative but also sparsely populated so its significance is irrelevant for the most part.

Don't count out the Central Valley. Tech and Film can be moved nearly anywhere the infrastructure suits them, but Ag will remain in California as long as there is water and arable land.

Agreed. The Central Valley is probably the most agriculturally rich place in the world. Just about anything grows on that land. California's vino industry is also big business.

Post: #17

(12-15-2012 02:27 PM)The Texas Prophet Wrote:  

(12-15-2012 02:17 PM)EisenBarde Wrote:  Though it doubt it will swing hard right, I think the state has reached peak progressivism. The best example I can cite is that every liberal prop passed in the last election EXCEPT the one for labeling genetically engineered foods. Every year there are fewer Northern European liberals and more Mexican liberals who don't exactly fit the bill of your average American Democrat or Republican.

Prop 34 (death penalty) and Prop 38 (sliding scale tax increase) didn't pass as well.

I agree that the increase in Mexican-American population in California means that it won't be as left wing (at least on social issues) in the future.

I kind of doubt that. I think it will remain reliably liberal. Mestizos are acculturating to liberal social norms, and, due to their relative poverty and political apathy, probably don't contribute much of campaign donations. As long as the whites on the left are for the welfare state, I don't see any fracture in this coalition. Aside from say, gay marriage propositions being shot down, and barring any radical population shifts, the Mestizos will remain supportive of the liberal establishment.

Post: #18

Not only will anything grow, but they can also farm for more seasons out of the year because of the temperate climate and the fact that most of the soil used to be under a swamp until a couple hundred years ago.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if California resembled Mexico socioeconomically in the next decade. For all the "La Raza" solidarity nonsense white people pay white mexicans to say on tv, a lot of folk still don't like Oaxacans wah-halkin' near their neighborhoods.

Post: #19

(12-15-2012 01:59 PM)The Texas Prophet Wrote:  

(12-15-2012 01:39 PM)ElJefe Wrote:  I wonder what California is going to look like in 15 years. I'd like to see a number of how many high skilled folks are leaving the State and how many low-skilled folks are entering.

I was born there and have so many found memories, and American literature is abound with stories on how incredible a place California is/was - the best nature in the country, the most exciting cities, best climates, all climates, most progressive and open-minded people.

But there is so much negative news coming out of there it's impossible not become disheartened, to see one's homeland laid waste by the forces of post-modernism. When the masters in the Ivory Tower refuse to listen, what are the people to do?

@ Basil: you're usually pretty good at discerning random from representative. How do you think average people on the ground are taking this change?

@ Gmanifesto: I sympathize, but I can't help but laugh. Did you not argue rather vehemently in the run-up to the election (or was that MikeCF?) that more liberal places were cooler, either by causation or coincidence? And a 52 percent marginal tax rate on income is not bad at all, when considering certain European countries. Denmark has a marginal tax rate of 56 percent that kicks in at earnings above USD75,000 and consumption taxes come out at about 30%, assuming you don't buy cars or stuff like that. In total, the marginal tax rate for a lot of people is close to 70%.

Anyways, so much for free-thinking and pot-smoking hippies and their rebellion against bourgeoisie complacency.

Let's not get carried away here. California is not burning to the ground. It has its problems, but it is still a cool place to visit and there isn't another state in the USA quite like it.

The main problem is that Californians are going to have to make some hard choices in the future regarding their finances when it sets in that just "raising taxes" is not the solution.

Yeah, I bet in 15 years certain parts won't change. Rich communities are relatively unaffected by anything.

Quote: Did you not argue rather vehemently in the run-up to the election (or was that MikeCF?) that more liberal places were cooler, either by causation or coincidence?

Well yeah.

I mean where do you think a foreign person would rather visit?

New York and California?

Or Mississippi and Kansas?

(12-15-2012 02:23 PM)Hencredible Casanova Wrote:  Southern California is more unpredictable politically. San Diego County and Orange County lean more Republican and LA has a fondness for actors regardless of political stripe. I think the police state effect is very strong in Socal. I also know that people who end up moving out of there tend not to return. Much of the interior of the state is more conservative but also sparsely populated so its significance is irrelevant for the most part.

Orange County is super Republican.

San Diego was a conservative bastion, but now is actually liberal.

Well, the city of San Diego and South are liberal.

East San Diego and North County San Diego (the lame parts) are conservative.

Obama carried San Diego the last two elections.

Post: #20

No offense to you guys living there but fuck California (figuratively). The open border, citizen of the world mentality is really naive and requires totalitarianism to achieve. It will take all your money and then some to pay for and still won't be enough to please all the different social and political groups. On top of that you have an entitled political class just raping the citizens for their own benefit. They would rather you have zero freedom, 100% taxation, and if they could take away your freedom to think for yourself they would have that too. These political geniuses consistently kick all the fiscal problems down the road while lining their pockets resulting in the wave of municipal bankruptcies going on now.

This is what happens when you try to do to everything humanly possible besides performing the basics of representative government. There's nothing wrong with this either, each state is allowed to govern itself however it wants. We get the government we vote for and deserve what we get.

I say fuck California because they set the trends for the entire country, what happens there first eventually happens everywhere else in the country. I live in New York, we're already fucked like you guys, except our weather sucks. But once every state becomes like California you can put a fork in the great experiment that was America.

Post: #21

Yeah. I know the City of SD is much different than East and North County, which is why I said lean (overall). I spent a summer out there a few years ago. I think in state and local politics SD leans right.

OC is republican as a whole, though cities like Santa Ana are more democratic. The rich parts of OC are def right wing no doubt.

Post: #22

(12-15-2012 05:04 PM)painter Wrote:  The open border, citizen of the world mentality is really naive and requires totalitarianism to achieve.

You lost me here, and therefor makes the impossible to take the rest of your post seriously.

Totalitarianism? Are you really comparing California to a fascist government? Are you implying that, in some weird conspiracy theory, the Californian government is trying to exert a dictatorship on its people?

The reason this place is ridiculously expensive and restrictive is because left-wing "high-quality-of-life" policies have gone too far. Our overhead is way too expensive, due to the ridiculous pandering to extremely liberal environmental, labor, and business policies. You might hire a migrant labor but you better be paying them 10 bucks an hour, health insurance, and a retirement package or else you've got a class action flying at you.

But this isn't the 4th Reich for fuck's sake.

Post: #23

(12-15-2012 05:31 PM)thedude3737 Wrote:  You might hire a migrant labor but you better be paying them 10 bucks an hour, health insurance, and a retirement package or else you've got a class action flying at you.

This doesn't happen, ever. A big reason our enterprising compadres from the south are relatively thriving in the US is because they operate almost exclusively in cash under the table.

A big reason that tax revenues are down in the state is because a lot of stuff is now traded in the gray market

Post: #24

(12-15-2012 05:42 PM)EisenBarde Wrote:  

(12-15-2012 05:31 PM)thedude3737 Wrote:  You might hire a migrant labor but you better be paying them 10 bucks an hour, health insurance, and a retirement package or else you've got a class action flying at you.

This doesn't happen, ever. A big reason our enterprising compadres from the south are relatively thriving in the US is because they operate almost exclusively in cash under the table.

A big reason that tax revenues are down in the state is because a lot of stuff is now traded in the gray market

Are you saying my scenario doesn't happen, ever? I know from first hand experience that it does, and on a regular basis. The scenario I laid out is VERY simplified but the fact is that California labor laws lean heavily on the employee's side of affairs. I've been dealing with HR departments for the last 10 years and have seen the most ridiculous rulings and handouts in favor of over-privileged workers.

Post: #25

It seems that's the way it's headed. To get citizens to comply more freedom will be taken away until it gets to the point where you'll have to pee into a cup just to get on a bus. Call it a benevolent dictatorship. I can't stand the thought of people who think they're superior to me doing everything they can to protect me from myself.

We have the same thing here. The anti-smoke Nazis now want to make it illegal for me to smoke inside anywhere including my own house. They ban smoking outside in public. A pack costs over $10 here. It's no longer a free society and it sucks that the only way to really be free now is to head out to the backwoods.

Maybe "open border, citizen of the world" was a little too broad. I like the way you put it better: "left wing "high quality of life" policies and extremely liberal environmental, labor, and business policies". We have the same thing here, you can't do anything without permission or dealing with a 1000 bureaucracies and no matter what you try to do someone's going to get pissed off and make a mountain out of a molehill.