Post: #91701

(05-03-2019 07:02 AM)Easy_C Wrote:  ...
It's called the CIA.

How often does the Jornolist coordinate with them? Or John Kerrys on their treachery? Or even the entire leftist apparat back in the day?

There may indeed be a Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy going on, but not everything is coordinated through the CIA.

Post: #91702

(05-02-2019 05:59 PM)Bluto Wrote:  

(05-01-2019 12:20 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  Trump wont go on the offensive with Iran until after 2020. To blow that whole thing open means blowing the economy open.

You are making the assumption that the economy is going not be in the shitter by then? I need to preface this by the fact that I don't believe the numbers, but the US has had 10 years of Economic expansion.(According to the Fed) I have not looked at it recently but I think that we either have broken the record or are about to. If the economy limps along until 2021 it will be extraordinarily long in modern times. The odds are not in the favor of this economy lasting that long.

I tend to think that Trump will have a "what do we have to loose" moment over the next year and a half either with a war, tariffs, the border or all three. If an Iranian is foolish enough to sneak over the Rio Grande and lights a nuke made in China, than they will do all of the work for him politically.

Thats why he is leaning on the Fed. Its already the biggest expansion (their words) in history and to push it another 24 months is asking a lot.

Many economic indicators show it is alreadyreversing but the stock market height is fooling people.

Post: #91703

(05-03-2019 10:40 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

(05-02-2019 05:59 PM)Bluto Wrote:  

(05-01-2019 12:20 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  Trump wont go on the offensive with Iran until after 2020. To blow that whole thing open means blowing the economy open.

You are making the assumption that the economy is going not be in the shitter by then? I need to preface this by the fact that I don't believe the numbers, but the US has had 10 years of Economic expansion.(According to the Fed) I have not looked at it recently but I think that we either have broken the record or are about to. If the economy limps along until 2021 it will be extraordinarily long in modern times. The odds are not in the favor of this economy lasting that long.

I tend to think that Trump will have a "what do we have to loose" moment over the next year and a half either with a war, tariffs, the border or all three. If an Iranian is foolish enough to sneak over the Rio Grande and lights a nuke made in China, than they will do all of the work for him politically.

Thats why he is leaning on the Fed. Its already the biggest expansion (their words) in history and to push it another 24 months is asking a lot.

Many economic indicators show it is alreadyreversing but the stock market height is fooling people.

Exactly. I recall recently many Trump supporters here saying:

"He can't lose! The economy is doing great!"

Are you kidding me?

The entire world economy is juiced up beyond belief on cheap debt. This past fall was the real warning when the market had a nervous break down over increased rates that are still below 3 FUCKING PERCENT! The tech sector in particular really took a hit for a reason: Much of the tech sectors business models are:

1. never generate a profit
2. keep borrowing/raising funds to stay alive,
3. and hope to hell you get bought out eventually by bigger companies that will likely use cheap debt to make the purchase.

Guess what? When there is a slight increase in the cost of debt, that can bring the whole house down very quickly.

The big guys - What did they do with the cheap debt for the past decade? Bought back stock and bought out unprofitable companies. No money in research and development, no money into operations, no money in capital projects, no money in developing new PROFITABLE product segments. You know, the things that create good paying, long-lasting jobs.

When the cheap debt goes, the stock prices will take a major hit and the acquired unprofitable companies will be closed down. All that cheap debt and nothing to show for it; except a debt payment to the bank. The non-acquired unprofitable companies? Shut down as well.

Why do you all think all of these IPOs are happening right now?

They know the whole thing is about to blow up and they are cashing out ASAP.

I wouldn't be surprised at all is there was some sort of tacit agreement within the silicon valley world to get your IPO in now in 2019 because in 2020, they are on-board with crashing the economy to get Trump out of office. They will likely work their Deep State magic to get fed rates up and then it will all come crashing down pretty quickly.

It will be a miracle if Trump gets to November 2020 without a major negative economic event occurring.

Post: #91704

^ Yes that is why Trump keeps harping on keeping interest rates low. He knows the score.

Many companies have prime +x rates on their working capital facilities, any upticks come right off the bottom line.

Which reminds me, EBITDA is a scam.

Post: #91705

I follow a few decent channels about the economic situation in the US and the world. Retail, housing market, private debt and company debt is drowning consumers already.

Over here when people talk about the car industry closing up shop or new car sales slowing down they're blinded by Brexit when in fact it is global. People are out of juice, the stock is not being bought and is piling up. Manufacturers need to reduce output and sack people.

Same for retail.

The same goes for California & NYC. I believe people are blinded by the fact retail and home sales are dying in Cali because of the taxes, now whilst true in a way consumers are not spending. California, like London (also suffering), is at the top of the curve and everywhere else in its respective hemisphere is behind and coasting on the slipstream.

What is happening in those areas will happen further along and Trump leaning on the Fed is an attempt to stem this potential disastrous recession until he gets in. No POTUS wants the economy blowing up just as voters head for the polls.

Post: #91706

People are drowning in debt. If they had any brains they would sell their homes, pay off that shit and start over. When then housing market tanks in the next recession people will be jumping off of bridges.

Post: #91707

(05-03-2019 01:14 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  The same goes for California & NYC. I believe people are blinded by the fact retail and home sales are dying in Cali because of the taxes, now whilst true in a way consumers are not spending. California, like London (also suffering), is at the top of the curve and everywhere else in its respective hemisphere is behind and coasting on the slipstream.

I'd disagree with you as someone whose lived here in California my entire life and as someone looking for property and as someone whose best friend is a major player in our counties real estate market.

The real estate market here is booming - however, there was a slight pullback in home prices just this last week or so.

It's still a strong market here and house prices are higher than ever.

While I'd say yeah there's a housing crisis with the ridiculous rent and mortgages out here, which of course is forcing people in an exodus out of California.

Now how long will this last? Who knows, but as friend from the forum told me, a man should be stacking and investing his warchest right now.

ALWAYS be prepared.

On retail, I managed a retail store for over a decade and can tell you, retail is pretty strong in this state, in niche and in general. I still keep tabs with the owners and friends in the industry.

Vendors are still giving good terms to retail stores (in the past it was straight up COD fuck you pay me).

I currently work in the manufacturing/building technology sector, it's been an absolute monster year and half for us. Matter of fact the last 3 months have been our biggest in our companies decades long history.

We get calls fielded by investment/capital market researchers trying to get a feel for how the market is doing and we also get feedback about their feeling in general and competitors.

They see what we're seeing, the industry is strong, the unemployment rate is low, however there IS some question about some company debt.

(This relates to some marketing/sales campaigns by said tech companies to bring in money early and at a higher rate with customers having incentive to do so)

Now I'm not as educated as Black Night when being informed on the stock market or interest rates, so I'm sure he's right about alot.

I'm just talking about my boots being on the ground and see what's around me everyday.

I'm debt free, I'm making and saving a ton of money and hardly spending shit, and I'm killing it at work and lining up for a raise and bonuses.

I'd personally say shit's pretty good right now for me, I really hope the economy doesn't take a shit, even if we're due for one.

Post: #91708

Edit. "Action" please, not "monitoring".

Edit II.

Post: #91709

Now if the Trump / MAGA crew setup their own Twitter type platform...

Trumper?

Post: #91710

That sounds like how when guys get banned here they go over to naughtynomad

Post: #91711

(05-03-2019 07:47 AM)MOVSM Wrote:  

(05-03-2019 07:02 AM)Easy_C Wrote:  ...
It's called the CIA.

How often does the Jornolist coordinate with them? Or John Kerrys on their treachery? Or even the entire leftist apparat back in the day?

There may indeed be a Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy going on, but not everything is coordinated through the CIA.

We're not talking about "everything". We're talking about the party bosses and major outlets like CNN and NBC (both of whom employ a huge number of "former" intelligence officials in key positions).

Post: #91712

Via NickMonre1112

Post: #91713

(05-03-2019 05:55 PM)kaotic Wrote:  I'm just talking about my boots being on the ground and see what's around me everyday.

I'm debt free, I'm making and saving a ton of money and hardly spending shit, and I'm killing it at work and lining up for a raise and bonuses.

I'd personally say shit's pretty good right now for me, I really hope the economy doesn't take a shit, even if we're due for one.

Look - the economy will do relatively good so long as the government keeps on borrowing money and millions of illegals keep on streaming into the US.

The majority of them are getting some form of state benefits and thus the property market gets inflated by simple demographics. It's not a crazy property boom of the 2007-8 era, it's just that massive immigration lets property owners sleep better. Mind you - not only low-tier properties are high, but the rest is being pushed up as well - people are moving away from diversity whenever they can, picking better school districts etc. Thus all segments of the markets go up when there is such a huge pressure at the bottom. So long as there are still some jobs left to suppor that and the government keeps on paying social security, then it works.

This situation can continue for years, though one day the debt has to be paid back - and the US is in no position to pay it back. That is when you have to start to worry, because there are two options for this - long depression or major major war.

As for interest rates - the times for high interests are not coming back. It would mean a total collapse if the Fed raised rates like in the 1970s. This would instantly bankrupt not only the US, but also countless consumers and even students. The countries will uphold a low-interest policy maybe even at one time go below zero (something which has happened in some markets - essentially you pay money for the bank to keep your cash.)

=---------------

As for Iran - it's the logical choice. Every president in the last decades had at least one big conflict going on since Bush sr. Trump will have to attack someone - maybe they will make up another fake gas or fake nuke attack with Assad. By this time there aren't that many "enemies" left. Iran sounds like a good bet aside from some insane attack against Assad and the Syrians who fight the Jihadi-secret-services coalition.

So it will be the finishing off of Syria which is admittedly hard to do, because the people generally are not believing the fake news brigade enough or they come up with something on Iran. Iran is a tricky thing for the globalists frankly since a secular modern Persia is a worse enemy to them than a backwards Mullah dominated one. They would have to destroy it well.

Post: #91714

(05-03-2019 05:55 PM)kaotic Wrote:  illing it at work and lining up for a raise and bonuses.

I'd personally say shit's pretty good right now for me, I really hope the economy doesn't take a shit, even if we're due for one.

Plenty of indicators show housing is doing good in 1 light but going down in others. New homes arent going as fast and consumers are struggling with their money.

Second hand homes are having price cuts and have fallen from this time last year.

Things were pretty good in 2006/07 right until the lights were turned off. Over in britain I saw the lenders start loosening requirements last year for mortgages because they were running out of customers to sell to, which is how the sub-prime lending problem started in the USA, which i believe was never solved.

This is on top of other pressures such as auto repos going up and up. If people cannot afford their cars the mortgage is the next in line.

Post: #91715

(05-04-2019 03:36 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

(05-03-2019 05:55 PM)kaotic Wrote:  illing it at work and lining up for a raise and bonuses.

I'd personally say shit's pretty good right now for me, I really hope the economy doesn't take a shit, even if we're due for one.

Plenty of indicators show housing is doing good in 1 light but going down in others. New homes arent going as fast and consumers are struggling with their money.

Second hand homes are having price cuts and have fallen from this time last year.

Things were pretty good in 2006/07 right until the lights were turned off. Over in britain I saw the lenders start loosening requirements last year for mortgages because they were running out of customers to sell to, which is how the sub-prime lending problem started in the USA, which i believe was never solved.

This is on top of other pressures such as auto repos going up and up. If people cannot afford their cars the mortgage is the next in line.

The majority of boomers who retire using real estate gains to do so. At least the ones I know.

Who is buying these properties at inflated prices, and assuming the massive 30-year debt burden to pay those prices? The children and grandchildren of the boomers.

They are saddled with mortgage payments or rent that is 2-3X higher than their parents had, adjusting for inflation.

So the net result of home price appreciation in the USA is simple and horrible: Boomers are funding their retirements by selling their children and grandchildren into massive debt. I'm not even talking about national debt or student loans, those are even worse.

Of course nobody wants to admit this.

Post: #91716

The question is who will pull the plug. Or shall I use another metaphor, when will the dominoes fall.

Like others aforementioned, it will either be a war or crazy inflation. Stagflation is what some economists are predicting. I sadly predict the former as they will be able to steal the goodies and kick the can down the road. Nobody wants to be the “unpopular” person and implement prudent fiscal responsibility.

Post: #91717

The question is who will pull the plug. Or shall I use another metaphor, when will the dominoes fall.

Like others aforementioned, it will either be a war or crazy inflation. Stagflation is what some economists are predicting. I sadly predict the former as they will be able to steal the goodies and kick the can down the road. Nobody wants to be the “unpopular” person and implement prudent fiscal responsibility.

Post: #91718

(05-04-2019 05:32 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  

(05-04-2019 03:36 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

(05-03-2019 05:55 PM)kaotic Wrote:  illing it at work and lining up for a raise and bonuses.

I'd personally say shit's pretty good right now for me, I really hope the economy doesn't take a shit, even if we're due for one.

Plenty of indicators show housing is doing good in 1 light but going down in others. New homes arent going as fast and consumers are struggling with their money.

Second hand homes are having price cuts and have fallen from this time last year.

Things were pretty good in 2006/07 right until the lights were turned off. Over in britain I saw the lenders start loosening requirements last year for mortgages because they were running out of customers to sell to, which is how the sub-prime lending problem started in the USA, which i believe was never solved.

This is on top of other pressures such as auto repos going up and up. If people cannot afford their cars the mortgage is the next in line.

The majority of boomers who retire using real estate gains to do so. At least the ones I know.

Who is buying these properties at inflated prices, and assuming the massive 30-year debt burden to pay those prices? The children and grandchildren of the boomers.

They are saddled with mortgage payments or rent that is 2-3X higher than their parents had, adjusting for inflation.

So the net result of home price appreciation in the USA is simple and horrible: Boomers are funding their retirements by selling their children and grandchildren into massive debt. I'm not even talking about national debt or student loans, those are even worse.

Of course nobody wants to admit this.

The thing is that nobody is going to be rushing to by these homes. Millennials have no money and the suburbs where most of where these Boomer homes are located is not as desirable as they used to be. Many Boomers will have their homes rot away on the market or they will take deep discounts to push a sale. There simply is a limit towards how much debt can be piled on further and Millennials, who are already drowning, won't want to add any more water into their swimming tank.

This will become a major friction point down the road as Boomers will cling on to these albatrosses as they will be unable to move them.

Post: #91719

(05-05-2019 12:21 AM)kosko Wrote:  

(05-04-2019 05:32 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  

(05-04-2019 03:36 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

(05-03-2019 05:55 PM)kaotic Wrote:  illing it at work and lining up for a raise and bonuses.

I'd personally say shit's pretty good right now for me, I really hope the economy doesn't take a shit, even if we're due for one.

Plenty of indicators show housing is doing good in 1 light but going down in others. New homes arent going as fast and consumers are struggling with their money.

Second hand homes are having price cuts and have fallen from this time last year.

Things were pretty good in 2006/07 right until the lights were turned off. Over in britain I saw the lenders start loosening requirements last year for mortgages because they were running out of customers to sell to, which is how the sub-prime lending problem started in the USA, which i believe was never solved.

This is on top of other pressures such as auto repos going up and up. If people cannot afford their cars the mortgage is the next in line.

The majority of boomers who retire using real estate gains to do so. At least the ones I know.

Who is buying these properties at inflated prices, and assuming the massive 30-year debt burden to pay those prices? The children and grandchildren of the boomers.

They are saddled with mortgage payments or rent that is 2-3X higher than their parents had, adjusting for inflation.

So the net result of home price appreciation in the USA is simple and horrible: Boomers are funding their retirements by selling their children and grandchildren into massive debt. I'm not even talking about national debt or student loans, those are even worse.

Of course nobody wants to admit this.

The thing is that nobody is going to be rushing to by these homes. Millennials have no money and the suburbs where most of where these Boomer homes are located is not as desirable as they used to be. Many Boomers will have their homes rot away on the market or they will take deep discounts to push a sale. There simply is a limit towards how much debt can be piled on further and Millennials, who are already drowning, won't want to add any more water into their swimming tank.

This will become a major friction point down the road as Boomers will cling on to these albatrosses as they will be unable to move them.

Yep. Look at the prices of mega mansions, already in steep decline, and the quoted reason? "Young folks just aren't interested in such huge houses".

Post: #91720

< Yeah - when the middle class is shrinking, then there is no market out there that can pay them. Centrally located houses have the option of being converted into condos, but the suburbs?

Post: #91721

(05-04-2019 05:32 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  ...


The majority of boomers who retire using real estate gains to do so. At least the ones I know.

Who is buying these properties at inflated prices, and assuming the massive 30-year debt burden to pay those prices? The children and grandchildren of the boomers.

They are saddled with mortgage payments or rent that is 2-3X higher than their parents had, adjusting for inflation.

So the net result of home price appreciation in the USA is simple and horrible: Boomers are funding their retirements by selling their children and grandchildren into massive debt. I'm not even talking about national debt or student loans, those are even worse.

Of course nobody wants to admit this.

Household incomes have also grown 2-3X higher. Not so much in absolute terms, as median income growth has lagged behind inflation, but due to the fact that a lot more women are working. While this is a fairly bad outcome from a societal viewpoint, it means that there won't be any collapse in housing prices.

The worst kind of boomers are feminists who have barely worked, have been able to get married and raise their kids, and still think that this was some kind of patriarchal hell.

And the worst kind of millennials are their young women counterparts who think that their mothers were enslaved by the patriarchy, that they are now liberated because they have equal or better access to the cubicle farms, where they will have to work as hard as their fathers, pair up with someone who works as hard as them just so they can afford a lifestyle that's barely as good as their parents'.

Post: #91722

< You are kidding right?

Household income just went up due to everyone in the household working. Real median wages haven't risen since the 1970s.

A steel mill worker - uneducated - in the 1960s made enough money to buy a house that he paid off under a decade, could afford 2 cars, a non-working wife and the education of 3 kids. A Starbucks regional manager does not make that kind of money in real terms.

   

Note the gimmicks they use in terms of calculation of average wages - those include the previously non-working women. There are other gimmicks that economists use.

Post: #91723

(05-05-2019 12:21 AM)kosko Wrote:  

(05-04-2019 05:32 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  

(05-04-2019 03:36 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

(05-03-2019 05:55 PM)kaotic Wrote:  illing it at work and lining up for a raise and bonuses.

I'd personally say shit's pretty good right now for me, I really hope the economy doesn't take a shit, even if we're due for one.

Plenty of indicators show housing is doing good in 1 light but going down in others. New homes arent going as fast and consumers are struggling with their money.

Second hand homes are having price cuts and have fallen from this time last year.

Things were pretty good in 2006/07 right until the lights were turned off. Over in britain I saw the lenders start loosening requirements last year for mortgages because they were running out of customers to sell to, which is how the sub-prime lending problem started in the USA, which i believe was never solved.

This is on top of other pressures such as auto repos going up and up. If people cannot afford their cars the mortgage is the next in line.

The majority of boomers who retire using real estate gains to do so. At least the ones I know.

Who is buying these properties at inflated prices, and assuming the massive 30-year debt burden to pay those prices? The children and grandchildren of the boomers.

They are saddled with mortgage payments or rent that is 2-3X higher than their parents had, adjusting for inflation.

So the net result of home price appreciation in the USA is simple and horrible: Boomers are funding their retirements by selling their children and grandchildren into massive debt. I'm not even talking about national debt or student loans, those are even worse.

Of course nobody wants to admit this.

The thing is that nobody is going to be rushing to by these homes. Millennials have no money and the suburbs where most of where these Boomer homes are located is not as desirable as they used to be. Many Boomers will have their homes rot away on the market or they will take deep discounts to push a sale. There simply is a limit towards how much debt can be piled on further and Millennials, who are already drowning, won't want to add any more water into their swimming tank.

This will become a major friction point down the road as Boomers will cling on to these albatrosses as they will be unable to move them.

Vancouver seems to be the bellwether of real estate in Canada. Perhaps even the west (except for the US). Many of these boomers are actually swapping their suburban homes for millennials urban condos. Talking with realtor friends, there has been a noticeable increase in family flight from urban cores to the suburban cities. Its something I have notices first hand by visiting friends in these outer cities. And I gotta say, they have a lot to offer. As long as you don't require downtown Van as a daily commute, life is pretty damn good.

Its been a bit frustrating for my family recently though as friends from downtown here flee to those markets. So if the middle class drain continues in my neighborhood, I might end up fleeing too. Demographics will mean welfare kids and rich kids only, where the rich are in the private schools tucked into highrise buildings and the welfare kids are left to destroy the public schools. Sound familiar?

Post: #91724

(05-05-2019 11:24 AM)911 Wrote:  

(05-04-2019 05:32 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  ...


The majority of boomers who retire using real estate gains to do so. At least the ones I know.

Who is buying these properties at inflated prices, and assuming the massive 30-year debt burden to pay those prices? The children and grandchildren of the boomers.

They are saddled with mortgage payments or rent that is 2-3X higher than their parents had, adjusting for inflation.

So the net result of home price appreciation in the USA is simple and horrible: Boomers are funding their retirements by selling their children and grandchildren into massive debt. I'm not even talking about national debt or student loans, those are even worse.

Of course nobody wants to admit this.

Household incomes have also grown 2-3X higher. Not so much in absolute terms, as median income growth has lagged behind inflation, but due to the fact that a lot more women are working. While this is a fairly bad outcome from a societal viewpoint, it means that there won't be any collapse in housing prices.

The worst kind of boomers are feminists who have barely worked, have been able to get married and raise their kids, and still think that this was some kind of patriarchal hell.

And the worst kind of millennials are their young women counterparts who think that their mothers were enslaved by the patriarchy, that they are now liberated because they have equal or better access to the cubicle farms, where they will have to work as hard as their fathers, pair up with someone who works as hard as them just so they can afford a lifestyle that's barely as good as their parents'.

Then you have the female Gen Xers who embraced the degeneracy rebellion of their teens and never grew out of that and cover that up with saying "I earned it because daddy abused me."

Post: #91725

Now that we can conclude that Trump has been a massive failure at best and a deliberate betrayal at worst, we can also look at who will be president after Bernie Sanders. Or leader of the resistance and secession movement.

Tucker does seem to be setting himself up to look more and more presidential. This video here, as an example, shows him as the one being interviewed and wearing heavy "presidential" makeup. A trial run?