Post: #301

Via witnessing parts of the Shale Boom in the US, peak oil is a myth. Keep in mind they were pushing peak oil before US energy production ramped up, but that was likely a ruse to push 6 dollar a gallon prices, hybrids, hydrogen cars (forgot of them), electric cars, and the scam that is renewables (which hasn't treated Germany and others that well because of high prices and subsidies).

Post: #302

(02-19-2019 05:52 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  This guy claims...

Opinions are like assholes. Everyone's got one and most of them stink. In other words, appealing to authority by itself doesn't count for much.

Post: #303

(02-20-2019 08:06 PM)TheMost Wrote:  

(02-19-2019 05:52 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  This guy claims that there will be no return in a foreseeable future from an ice age after it sets , since Sun is downshifting in a more general way:

http://www.ice-age-ahead-iaa.ca/scrp_ice_45/pisa000.htm

I'll be doing coffee with him next week. His info on the Ulysses probe is good. He doesn't yet realize that the whole "miles thick ice sheets" part of the ice age story is bunk and been debunked for a long time. I think his timelines are too optimistic in the near term, and way too pessimistic in the long term.

Coffee after...? Is he coming with a lecture ? He definitely seems to have some kind of missionary streak. His idea of building 6000 floating basalt cities along Equator is completely fantastic. None of other guys has such grand designs.

Clearly the main problem for the ice age theory is to put together a lot of heat you need for a steam with a lot of cold you need for a lot of snow. So in the end you get either massive volcano eruptions or nova explosion of Sun.

Long term pessimism makes preparations pointless. But Maunder minimum cannot be truly named an ice age.

Post: #304

(02-20-2019 08:12 PM)Heuristics Wrote:  Via witnessing parts of the Shale Boom in the US, peak oil is a myth. Keep in mind they were pushing peak oil before US energy production ramped up, but that was likely a ruse to push 6 dollar a gallon prices, hybrids, hydrogen cars (forgot of them), electric cars, and the scam that is renewables (which hasn't treated Germany and others that well because of high prices and subsidies).

That would explain all the extreme weirdness with Elon Musk and Tesla over the last year. Well, that, and having a crack-head girlfriend. Never seen a man who wasn't dragged down by a drug addict girlfriend. But why would he pick this time to indulge in a drug addict girlfriend. Something already had him demoralized and off-kilter. The numerological symbolism and unlikely footage surrounding his rocket plans have also been sky-high (heh).

Post: #305

(02-21-2019 07:23 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  

(02-20-2019 08:06 PM)TheMost Wrote:  

(02-19-2019 05:52 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  This guy claims that there will be no return in a foreseeable future from an ice age after it sets , since Sun is downshifting in a more general way:

http://www.ice-age-ahead-iaa.ca/scrp_ice_45/pisa000.htm

I'll be doing coffee with him next week. His info on the Ulysses probe is good. He doesn't yet realize that the whole "miles thick ice sheets" part of the ice age story is bunk and been debunked for a long time. I think his timelines are too optimistic in the near term, and way too pessimistic in the long term.

He definitely seems to have some kind of missionary streak. His idea of building 6000 floating basalt cities along Equator is completely fantastic. None of other guys has such grand designs.

[/quote]

Actually a few years ago Jim Bowery (rocket scientist) posted a detailed blog post about doing exactly this, and how to make it happen. Short paper, but had all the right details. Sounds very doable for a reasonable initial input.

Quote:Clearly the main problem for the ice age theory is to put together a lot of heat you need for a steam with a lot of cold you need for a lot of snow. So in the end you get either massive volcano eruptions or nova explosion of Sun.

Yes, this is the first time I've heard of regular mini-nova in our own Sun. I think the Sun and volcanism is linked somehow; both are intense electromagnetic events.

Quote:Long term pessimism makes preparations pointless. But Maunder minimum cannot be truly named an ice age.

Look up Kurt Johman. The "Ice Age" with whole continents covered with miles thick ice sheets, never happened, and won't happen. It is bunkum. Actual ice ages are like the Maunder Minimum, but more intense.

Post: #306

(02-20-2019 08:06 PM)TheMost Wrote:  

(02-19-2019 05:52 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  This guy claims that there will be no return in a foreseeable future from an ice age after it sets , since Sun is downshifting in a more general way:

http://www.ice-age-ahead-iaa.ca/scrp_ice_45/pisa000.htm

I'll be doing coffee with him next week. His info on the Ulysses probe is good. He doesn't yet realize that the whole "miles thick ice sheets" part of the ice age story is bunk and been debunked for a long time. I think his timelines are too optimistic in the near term, and way too pessimistic in the long term.

Ask the guy whether does he think that dark matter in the universe (allegedly 85% of the entire matter) is actually plasma...?
This is the fundamental question if his theory be true.

Post: #307

(02-22-2019 07:04 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  Ask the guy whether does he think that dark matter in the universe (allegedly 85% of the entire matter) is actually plasma...?
This is the fundamental question if his theory be true.

He's an Electric Universe guy, so the answer is most likely yes. As far as predictions go, the Electric Universe is performing impressively compared to standard theory.

Post: #308

Guess I'm not the only one who sees a strong connection between the coming Ice Age and the Peak Oil stuff.

Post: #309

I can't catch what the peak oil - ice age connection is from this interview. He just speaks about increasing US oil production. But this production is not being stored, so this does not look like the preparation for something.

Post: #310

He does not even utter the words "peak oil". Thus, he may be spinning his narrative towards an ice age, trying to present something which is the result of peak oil (shale oil revolution) as the result of the coming ice age.

I think an ice age will be never made "official", because an ice age would obviously require more fossil fuels. Global warming is the covert peak oil narration, since it is so obsessively focused on reducing carbon print. Even if the global warming was true, there are many other solutions, like mass tree planting and general greening. But you never really heard about them in a serious way.

Global cooling will be interpreted as a side effect of the global warming-driven "climate change".

Post: #311

(02-23-2019 04:31 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  I think an ice age will be never made "official", because an ice age would obviously require more fossil fuels. Global warming is the covert peak oil narration, since it is so obsessively focused on reducing carbon print. Even if the global warming was true, there are many other solutions, like mass tree planting and general greening. But you never really heard about them in a serious way.

Global cooling will be interpreted as a side effect of the global warming-driven "climate change".

Yep. A Maunder Minimum is a terrible time for Peak Oil to hit. But it is also a confounding variable, which is why I bring it up. Are we REALLY in peak oil, or is it an artefact of the cold bottom of the 400 year cycle? It could mean the difference between a 25% population drop by 2028, vs a 90% drop. 800 years ago, China experienced a 90% drop. 400 years ago North America had a 90% drop. 600 years ago there was a 30% drop worldwide.

Post: #312

The greatest irony will be if the new darling of globalists, China, will go down together with West. The connection of Maunder Minimum with sunspots was proposed only in the 70ties, and I believe the globalists did not factor an ice age in.

Post: #313

(02-23-2019 02:23 PM)TheMost Wrote:  

(02-23-2019 04:31 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  I think an ice age will be never made "official", because an ice age would obviously require more fossil fuels. Global warming is the covert peak oil narration, since it is so obsessively focused on reducing carbon print. Even if the global warming was true, there are many other solutions, like mass tree planting and general greening. But you never really heard about them in a serious way.

Global cooling will be interpreted as a side effect of the global warming-driven "climate change".

Yep. A Maunder Minimum is a terrible time for Peak Oil to hit. But it is also a confounding variable, which is why I bring it up. Are we REALLY in peak oil, or is it an artefact of the cold bottom of the 400 year cycle? It could mean the difference between a 25% population drop by 2028, vs a 90% drop. 800 years ago, China experienced a 90% drop. 400 years ago North America had a 90% drop. 600 years ago there was a 30% drop worldwide.

Cough...smallpox, Mongol invasions/genocides...cough cough

Post: #314

(02-25-2019 10:53 AM)911 Wrote:  

Quote:Yep. A Maunder Minimum is a terrible time for Peak Oil to hit. But it is also a confounding variable, which is why I bring it up. Are we REALLY in peak oil, or is it an artefact of the cold bottom of the 400 year cycle? It could mean the difference between a 25% population drop by 2028, vs a 90% drop. 800 years ago, China experienced a 90% drop. 400 years ago North America had a 90% drop. 600 years ago there was a 30% drop worldwide.

Cough...smallpox, Mongol invasions/genocides...cough cough

Follow the chain of causation. The things you mention are side effects, not root causes. First comes the cold snap. Then comes the crop failures. Then comes the hunger and compromised immune systems. THEN come the wars and plagues as direct result of the foregoing. When a population is otherwise warm and well fed and have good social organization, they can fight off most plagues and invasions.

When people have AIDS, is it the HIV that killed them, or the pneumonia? Does it matter? Ever wonder why Ebola dies out so quickly and never really gets traction in Africa? Warm, well fed population, strong immune systems. If Ebola got started during a cold snap after a long drought and crop failures I bet it would kill a lot more people than it has so far.

Post: #315

Smallpox in the western hemisphere spread like wildfire not because the natives weren't eating well as a result of crop failure, it wiped them out because they had never been exposed to anything like that kind of virus before. It affected Indians from the Andes through the boreal forests of Canada.

And I'm not sure what kind of diet could save someone who's getting his head chopped off by a Mongol herd...

Post: #316

Peak oil is not a concern. Exxon and the other oil majors invested heavily in renewable energy in the 70s when their business models were actually threatened by turmoil in the Middle East. Now, they are not throwing money into solar and wind or even battery tech.
Technological advancements in fracking and biofuels as well as massive discoveries of crude in Venezuela and the Permian basin in Texas defy this entire thread.
This technical report from the National Renewable Energy Institute provides a minimum selling price of $4.00 USD per gallon of gasoline equivalent of biomass-derived fuel. The report is from 2015. That is cheaper than gas normally is in California from what I've heard. In the event of a serious oil production crash sending oil prices well above $100 USD per barrel, the oil majors will be hopping all over these alternatives and ramping up their own biofuel initiatives.
It's often wise to follow the money on these issues. Do the majors show any sign of worry or unreasonable focus on replacing oil? They exist solely to make money from extracting oil and gas from anywhere they possibly can.
Speculation that the sun is some unknown type of star heading us toward an ice age in the next decade is completely unfounded and against the basic scientific consensus, like claiming that sickness is caused by ill humors rather than viruses.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/62498.pdf

Post: #317

Well, no, if oil prices hit $100 then the majors are just going to rake it in and monetize the investments they've made in oil production, but you're right, should oil ever become scarce (not likely in our lifetime), then biofuel derived from cellulose and agricultural biomass waste is a major alternative, as are fuels derived from coal (which powered the German war machine and jets in the 1940s).

Post: #318

(01-30-2019 10:23 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  From "World Energy Outlook 2018" by International Energy Agency

/thread-33831...pid1931453

To give you some more insights on the graph:

In 2030, with 70% less oil, the world would be at the level of Cuba from 'Special Period' time, i.e. before Chavez came to rescue Cuba with Venezulean oil.

In 2040, with 90 % less oil, we are reaching the level of North Korea after 1989. Many people lack a crucial piece of information to understand N.K. In 1989 Russia reduced its oil exports there by 90%. There was no hunger there before, it was heavily mechanized agriculture. It is no more, and there is no coal-to-liquids fuel abundance there, despite N.K. having a lot of coal.
I sometimes think that N.K. is a laboratory for globalists how to run a desolate society with a powerful army.

Post: #319

'Special Period' redux coming to Cuba:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Cu...mbles.html

Post: #320

Cuba is going the way of China as its isolation dissolves. It doesn't need to face a "special period".

It really would be nice if this thread is going to continue that more people with different viewpoints weigh in because this is fast becoming a useless echo-chamber.

Post: #321

(03-18-2019 12:16 PM)questor70 Wrote:  Cuba is going the way of China as its isolation dissolves. It doesn't need to face a "special period".

It really would be nice if this thread is going to continue that more people with different viewpoints weigh in because this is fast becoming a useless echo-chamber.

'Truth has no temperature.'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZLDWFywljo

Nor shade, I would add.
Nor it is useless.

This is not a composition exercise, questor70, and speaking as your emperor: Maybe you should be demoted to a military tribune...?! Many more composition exercises in that position. Soldiers need convincing to die for our empire. Soldiers need believing that they do not live in a useless echo-chamber. That we are a republic, as our name says, SPQR, Senate and the People of Rome, and not a private property of one, Julio-Claudian, dynasty. That they can choose two consuls every year, even though one of them, year after year, is always me, the emperor. But they will notice another name, so thoughtfully always put before mine, every year someone else, and so they will believe that something changes and we are not the useless echo-chamber. They need to believe that in order to live, to serve, and to die. Polybius said that Rome is the most perfect state, so stable is Roma Aeterna.
I see you need to believe in our glorious future, too. You are not capax imperii. You will not a stage a sucessful rebellion, just a motion at the People's Assembly. You believe in a glorious future, not a future of spoils. Go. Go and enjoy your hopium, even though hopium is worse than lions at the arena. I, Caligula, the God-Emperor of Rome, the Sacred Trinity of Mercury, Apollo and Venus in One, bless you on this way. In the name of Rome, questor70, go!


As for Cuba:
Why do you say China? Because everyone repeats 'China'? Because you like silk?
Cuba economy is actually build on European machinery, since USA cut them off from American trade. Cuba is a kind of European island in Americas. This is why they now seek a relationship with Russia much more than with China - their airplane fleet are Russian designs, for example. Their agricultural machinery comes from Poland. And so on.

Post: #322

A more important metric than peak production is peak net Energy Returned on Energy Invested. We experienced peak net energy aproximately between 2005 and 2008. The lack of growing net energy creates an inability to service debt as the interest must be paid via growth. Growth is thermodynamicly impossible without expanding net energy to conduct work. Shale oil and fracking increased total production but the oil comes at a high cost which means a lower net to conduct work. The fact that most shale producers have never made a profit is a symptom of the peak net energy situation.

The oil industry cannot produce usable energy at a price that modern industrial civilization consumers can afford. Even with finance wizardry like NIRP, QE, Bailins etc the world economy is stalling.

The nexus of the grand solar minimum and peak net energy occurring at the same time presents quite a challenge to modern industrial civilization.

The concept of Energy Deflation is what we can expect to occurr over the next months. Oil prices will spike to a price that economies cannot afford, deflation will take root and reduce demand governments wil be forced to implement QE, NIRP. Oil prices will crash and the cycle will continue a race to the bottom. Currencies will fall like dominos. Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey are the first examplea, next will come India, EU and China etc. The USD will be the last domino. Russia will likely fair the best of all after the smoke clears

I am buying privacy coins like Monero, Dash, PIVX, ZCASH as I believe that as the fiat currencies experience sovereighn debt crisis due to energy deflation governments will implement capital controls to prevent flight of wealth. Cryptocurrency that provide anonymous transactions will fill the need nicely. My research indicates Monero to be the best option, but time will tell.

I am also buying 1 oz silver bullion coins. I think silver will be a way to transact in person. Also gold for larger sums. Russia is considering issuing silver coin pegged to a floating spot price.

I am training Jiu Jitsu, Krav Maga, lifting to be physically ready for a chaotic world..

I have a few 5 gallon buckets of rice and beans and salt stored as an insurance policy.

After the above i compartmentalize what I know and go about my life as if I am wrong. I am building a business that will likely fail if I am right.... But thats ok as my investments will hold me in good stead should I be right. I dont worry or stay awake at night worrying. What happens is outside of my control.

Post: #323

I spoke to a friend yesterday. His family is high up in the oil industry. When I asked him a week ago about peak oil, he said that with all the smoke and mirrors it is hard to tell one way or the other. Yesterday he said he did some digging, and it is definitely peak oil now, even with frakking. Given his family status, this could be accurate... or it could be the narrative that the big families want pushed right now.

Post: #324

Peak Oil is happenjng now or very soon.

Peak, Net Energy EROEI happenned in 2005.

When the reset or collapse starts there will be trillions of barrells of oil in the ground that will be to expensive to recover.

Post: #325

(03-18-2019 03:20 PM)TheMost Wrote:  I spoke to a friend yesterday. His family is high up in the oil industry. When I asked him a week ago about peak oil, he said that with all the smoke and mirrors it is hard to tell one way or the other. Yesterday he said he did some digging, and it is definitely peak oil now, even with frakking. Given his family status, this could be accurate... or it could be the narrative that the big families want pushed right now.

Peak oil narration is not being pushed now, in fact, a cover narration of 'peak demand' has been set up.
Peak demand can have different reasons, currently electric autos are pushed ( positive, namely, progressive, spin), but an economic collapse is also a 'peak demand' if needed.
Truth will not be made official.