Post: #26

(02-14-2019 08:13 PM)Aurini Wrote:  On the one hand, I enjoy his content; in precisely the same way I like reading about the politics and history of Dungeons and Dragons settings. "Cool story, bro."

On the other hand, I question what's being done about all of this. Watching youtube videos? Discussing political philosophy? I did that for ten years. Made a bit of coin, got laid a few times, but at the end of the day what changed?

The problem is, people don't want to change. They want to complain - but they don't want to do anything to fix it. They've got their marvel movies, their vidya, the Internet porn, and their fast food. Sure, they'll bitch about all of them - but the moment you try and do a thing to change it, they'll tell you they're too busy.

The number of us who actually give enough of a damn to try and build a better world are less than 1% of the population - and 1% isn't big enough to change the system. We're better off working on changing our immediate circumstances, than trying to resurrect a failed system. Let the thing crash and burn; put yourself into a better position for tomorrow.

Yes indeed.
Humans are not perfect, & as such, no human system will ever be perfect.
Resulting in the dilemna of whether to attempt to stall the fall or not...

Post: #27

Martin Armstrong has covered that. People don't want to change UNTIL the pain is too greatm

For those who follows him Martin's model is targeting 2020 to be the most violent election in US history. We will see how that pans out but in the meantime I have identified two potential relocation options, which are easy to move to because my work is largely location independent at least as far as my primary residence goes.

Post: #28

He has some interesting takes. But what makes him so sure that right wing gun owners will rise up after the democrats begin their 1000 year rule? It's possible I suppose, that after Trump, the democrats with their superior numbers of 3rd world shocktroops will punish the voters of Trump and white men in general at a velocity that breaks even the kindest of whiteys tolerance, but I suspect they aren't that stupid. They know where the guns are and who has the expertise to use them. I figure it's much more likely that it will be a slow drip of ever continual laws/measures that are ever more totalitarian, as the white man slowly disappears into demographic obscurity and into short-term pleasures. The left works in decades and generations, or at least they have so far.

I do believe if big changes aren't made, that starting with the 2024 presidential election, the right wing will never win a national election again. But it might take till the 2030s for cuckservatives and christcucks to realize that. By the 2030s most white men, even millennial whites like myself will be old and gray. Mark doesn't talk about how few whites there are in the 1-25 range. A majority of aged 50-60 plus men with guns aint goin win shit even with said guns.

Post: #29

(02-15-2019 10:53 AM)uncledick Wrote:  He has some interesting takes. But what makes him so sure that right wing gun owners will rise up after the democrats begin their 1000 year rule? It's possible I suppose, that after Trump, the democrats with their superior numbers of 3rd world shocktroops will punish the voters of Trump and white men in general at a velocity that breaks even the kindest of whiteys tolerance, but I suspect they aren't that stupid. They know where the guns are and who has the expertise to use them. I figure it's much more likely that it will be a slow drip of ever continual laws/measures that are ever more totalitarian, as the white man slowly disappears into demographic obscurity and into short-term pleasures. The left works in decades and generations, or at least they have so far.

I do believe if big changes aren't made, that starting with the 2024 presidential election, the right wing will never win a national election again. But it might take till the 2030s for cuckservatives and christcucks to realize that. By the 2030s most white men, even millennial whites like myself will be old and gray. Mark doesn't talk about how few whites there are in the 1-25 range. A majority of aged 50-60 plus men with guns aint goin win shit even with said guns.

as much for the avatar as the comment

Post: #30

It doesn't matter if the "Right" wins an election ever again. They've won plenty in the last 50 years and it hasn't achieved jack shit. The entire system in all our nations is compromised on both sides of the aisle.

France is already in a state of open rebellion. America is getting there even though Trump is still in the big seat.

The demographics are irrelevant once the shooting starts. At that point the economy shits itself and we all get to find out what rat tastes like. Immigration ceases overnight and Mexicans start heading back to Mexico "where things are safe".

Trump was democracy's swansong. I used to say his greatest achievement was simply getting elected but I don't believe that now. His greatest achievement was proving that democracy is a lie and that the only solution is torches and pitchforks.

Post: #31

Maybe. There’s twos factors I am considering


Number 1 is that Armstrong’s Socrates system is calling a sharp rise in violence here in the US starting 2020. The AI forecasts are worth paying attention to because it successfully called several major economic dates as well as that 2016 would see a huge third party wave.

Number 2 is an observation I’m making similar to how I (correctly) predicted GamerGate was a culturall turning point marking the rise of an activist right. I believe Covington and the abortion stuff were a similar landmark because I’ve noticed the right lose the tolerance attitude and switch to a general mood of “let’s wreck these shits”. Us matching their focus on winnings instead of plating nice is an important step

Post: #32

Armstrong is an idiot and there's no reason to listen to him.

Post: #33

That's about the response I expected from you.

Besides I'm more interested in what Socrates says than what he says. The difference is that I don't judge analysts/forecasters by "He's an idiot" or "He's super smart", I judge them by accuracy of forecasts. In that regard he's been head and shoulders above most of the rest of the crowd. My experience has generally been precisely the opposite of "he's an idiot and there's no reason to listen to him". Generally taking your advice and not listening to him has cost me a lot of cash (like when I bought gold ignoring his warning it was going to collapse to $1200) and listening to him has made me money (such as buying index investments near the start of 2016). Where you get into trouble is reading too much into events. That 2015.75 date was EXTREMELY significant because it marked the start of this entire Russia conflict but it wasn't significant in the way he thought.

Example of "being an idiot" was his look ahead for 2016 posted Jan. 1: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/futur...big-shift/

Post: #34

The guy throws out calls the way Kona throws out casual racism against white people. He makes tons and tons of them.
Then the misses get forgotten and the hits get remembered. Nothing new or interesting there, just another internet guru.

EDIT: Also, what was in that link that was even remotely insightful or interesting? What possible trades could you have made based off it? You can't possibly have made any trades off of this basement-grade technical analysis.

Post: #35

Oh God...those trendlines make me want to vomit

Post: #36

Giving it some more thought, I think what John Mark really wants is that a legion of well-organized armed men take out the establishment and impose a strong order. From his tone of voice alone you can tell that he wishes someone like Pinochet were in power. And for better or worse, that may be where we're headed, the other choice being globalist totalitarianism.

Post: #37

(02-15-2019 06:43 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  The guy throws out calls the way Kona throws out casual racism against white people. He makes tons and tons of them.
Then the misses get forgotten and the hits get remembered. Nothing new or interesting there, just another internet guru.

EDIT: Also, what was in that link that was even remotely insightful or interesting? What possible trades could you have made based off it? You can't possibly have made any trades off of this basement-grade technical analysis.

I'll focus on a few that were divergent from general consensus. Keep in mind that due to work reasons I'm generally fairly well plugged into both mainstream (CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg) and non-mainstream (e.g. ZeroHedge) market talk.

Quote:We are more likely than not going to see some trends conclude in 2016 and others perform a false move to scare the hell out of everyone. Nevertheless, the stars may not be aligning, but the markets appear to be setting the stage to align for the BIG SHIFT.

The first part of 2016 saw a mini-correction in major US equities indexes. The general consensus from financial media then was that everything was a complete disaster and we were FINALLY in the next crash which was overdue. None of that happened. It was just a dip immediately followed a breakout that saw DJIA shoot up to 24,000 from a low of around 16,000.

Significance was he broke from consensus which said that "this is it, we're finally having a crash".

Quote:What does the BIG SHIFT mean? It means that as we face a meltdown in socialism, which has taken hold of western governments and destroyed our underlying democratic foundations, ALL assets must prepare for the HEDGE against government.

I've actually gone to investor/asset manager conferences and the like. The paragraph here is significant because one's opinion on this is a pretty clear way to tell who knows what the hell they're talking about and who is a hobbyist "trader". The actual fund managers stated very clearly that they were shifting out of municipal securities and into corporate debt to hedge against public sector risk ("government" risk includes both legal/regulatory/corruption risk and fiscal policy/health related risks).

Quote:As we hurl through time and space toward 2017, we will come to realize that this will indeed be the year from political hell. Not only will a new president take office in the USA, but we are looking at France, Germany, and Britain also going nuts.

At the time the BREXIT referendum date had not been announced. The overwhelming majority of analysts did not take the event seriously and laughed it off.

Quote:The people of European nations have absolutely no means to reclaim their sovereignty by any method other than force. To prevent that, the EU Commission wants to create its own army.

This one I'm mentioning for a different reason which is that he DOES appear to have some kind of insider connections. This one he mentioned then and it just now became a publicly advocated policy position. He also gave a similarly advanced heads up that the government was moving to restrict the usage of cash and was exploring ways to ban it (India tried it and it was a disaster, the EU is restricting the use of high-denomination bills).

Quote:EDIT: Also, what was in that link that was even remotely insightful or interesting? What possible trades could you have made based off it? You can't possibly have made any trades off of this basement-grade technical analysis.

You're arguing like a leftist. Your first post was the same kind of "namecall -> conclusion" type of thinking they do (e.g. Trump is a racist -> Border wall is bad). The second post was a "Look at this crazy thing -> invective" that they do (e.g. LOLOL Roosh said something outrageous -> He's dangerous)


It's a SNAPSHOT referencing other existing analysis from the model which indicated long term, strongly bullish trends on US equity indexes. Making the trade would have been the right call. If you'd listened to the 90% or so of analysts calling for doom(most notably the zerohedge/Alex Jones crowd who are constantly salivating for a crash) then you'd have made the wrong call.

Quote:Then the misses get forgotten and the hits get remembered. Nothing new or interesting there, just another internet guru.

His OPINION isn't always what he thinks. The key dates/trend shifts forecasted by Socrates are generally reliable.


Besides which It is not just him this time. I recently spoke with someone who attended Davos and I was told that the general consensus there is that 2020 will see an economic crash and rising unrest.

Post: #38

It's astrology, not market forecasting.

Quote:We are more likely than not going to see some trends conclude in 2016 and others perform a false move to scare the hell out of everyone. Nevertheless, the stars may not be aligning, but the markets appear to be setting the stage to align for the BIG SHIFT.

"We will see some (undefined) trends end, while other (undefined) trends will continue. The markets appear (but might not!) be setting the stage for the (undefined) BIG SHIFT (which will occur at an undefined point in time.)"

Quote:What does the BIG SHIFT mean? It means that as we face a meltdown in socialism, which has taken hold of western governments and destroyed our underlying democratic foundations, ALL assets must prepare for the HEDGE against government.

"As we face an (undefined) meltdown in socialism, ALL assets must prepare (in undefined ways) for a HEDGE against government."

Quote:As we hurl through time and space toward 2017, we will come to realize that this will indeed be the year from political hell. Not only will a new president take office in the USA, but we are looking at France, Germany, and Britain also going nuts.

"There will be (undefined) unrest in France, Germany, and Britain."

This is useless garbage. The fact that he's more reliable than Zerohedge is meaningless, everybody is more reliable than Zerohedge. And what did I say about hits being remembered and misses being forgotten? France did not "go nuts" in any meaningful way in 2016.

Contrast this with a post I pulled off our own forum, which was put up for free by a member, and see which contains more insightful, actionable information.

Quote:Happy new years market update:

I have a few observations after doing my quarter end market analysis for what it's worth-

I never trust the first rally off the lows, which is what we're experiencing. The up days have been on low volume, which is a sign of weakness, The down (distribution) days preceding this bounce were on much higher volume. A telling sign that I think means we may get a substantial bounce here, but lower lows are very possible.

We’re up 7 percent off lows with this bounce. This correction we're undergoing is, I believe a cyclical bear market within a secular (long term) bull market. More on that below.

The average "first rally bounce" that occurs in a cyclical bear within a secular bull is +13% since 1920s.

The problem with these rallies is that they occur around a lot of volatility, which makes properly buying individual stocks very difficult.
So, it makes stocks risky.

It’s important to recognize if it’s a cyclical correction (which I said I believe it is) or if it’s associated with a recession and therefore a secular (bigger longer term) bear market.

The signs of an impending recession that I watch are not showing themselves at this point. There are a few concerns with interest rate and SOME inversion of the yield curve, but many of the other indicators that often flash before a recession are not showing themselves. These reasons and a few others are why I, again, think we're in a cyclical (shorter term) bear market.

I converted the portfolios I manage for my clients (ETFs and managed money) to 50% cash on October 17 before the watershed decline started. All individual stock trading accounts have been in cash starting a few days before that, with the exception of some short term stock trades I made about 2 weeks ago. I'm planning on reinvesting once I see the "long term buy signal" I follow go back to a buy (back to fully invested in ETFs, mutual funds). Individual stocks will only be bought after they have properly set up and when the market signal is back to a buy.

At this point, I think we could see a snap back rally, another, deeper downside for a bit and then , finally, the long term bull market will resume. I think that potentially there could be much more upside in the stock market, perhaps for years. I base this on the fact that, if you look at cyclical bear markets within secular bulls, after these short term bear markets played themselves out, the market advanced well past these corrections and went on for years or decades.

Case in point - 1987 was a cyclical correction (very dramatic) within a secular bull market ( 1982-2000) After 1987, the markets went up many many times from there for another 13 years. 2000 - 2010 was the "lost decade" where it was all sideways action punctuated by two bear markets.

We're now about 9 years out of that mega-consolidation (sideways action ) of 2000-2010. In the context of what markets have done after long term (decade or longer) sideways action, 9 years is not excessive. For example, the 1970s were a lost decade that, juxtaposed with a chart of the early 2000s, looks very similar. What happened after the lost decade of the '70's? A bull market that lasted 20 years (with, as I mentioned some cyclical bear markets within it)

The current sentiment composite shows very negative sentiment which is a good contrarian indicator.

I think we could be setting up for a buying opportunity, with this pullback but I wouldn’t get too excited just yet.

Some of the red flags or at least things to watch is the fact that the Fed us raising into a weakening environment which is a little different than the past when they usually raise into an inflationary environment.

There are a few catalysts which could spark a new rally to get us out of this correction. For example the tariff situation is eventually going to blow over with China. This maybe the catalyst to spark the next rally. Or, perhaps a fed policy change.

Post: #39

The new video is really worth watching.




His idea at 8:30 is amazing:

The universities bear liability for the student loans which are repaid via earning deductions for graduates for a limited period.

This'll cull a lot of courses and craziness.