Post: #101

(12-27-2018 08:46 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  Regarding stocks having no correlation to crypto. When the stock market collapses what you might get is quantitative easing and a dollar crisis. This brings us to Bitcoin and gold. We've already seen how 2008 lead to gold pumping from $400 to $2k. Bitcoin will probably pump too. So yes, stocks aren't correlated with Bitcoin but you can see how one can lead to affecting the other.

There's so little history on crypto currencies, it's hard to tell how correlated they will be to other asset classes, particularly at various phases of the economic cycle. For example, REITS, emerging market stocks, and other assets that are somewhat uncorrelated to the stock market during most phases of the cycle become MUCH more correlated during market crashes. We don't know if that will be the case for crypto, because there simply wasn't much trading volume in crypto the last time (2008/2009) we had a market crisis.

Post: #102

(12-27-2018 09:25 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  They don't crash when you aren't in recession. We aren't. All economic indicators are super solid, actually. I'm not just saying this because I'm a bull. I wasn't until I realized that the doomporn has been, and will be, consistently wrong.

Nearly all the major US economic indicators are relatively bullish, thanks for pointing that out. Most people don't actually look at the numbers, in fact, most don't even know what metrics to follow.

(12-27-2018 09:25 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Yes, we are moving towards a tremendous crash in the next 12 years, but the bubble before that is gonna be one helluva a run.

Ummm....i disagree on this part...next 12 years? Are you sure? Why 12? Why not 11 or 13?

Correct answer: Eventually we are likely to have another major correction, but no one knows when or how deep it will be. It's depth will likely bear some correlation to the extent of the runup that precedes it.

Post: #103

(12-27-2018 11:04 PM)robreke Wrote:  

(12-27-2018 08:46 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  Regarding stocks having no correlation to crypto. When the stock market collapses what you might get is quantitative easing and a dollar crisis. This brings us to Bitcoin and gold. We've already seen how 2008 lead to gold pumping from $400 to $2k. Bitcoin will probably pump too. So yes, stocks aren't correlated with Bitcoin but you can see how one can lead to affecting the other.

QE doesn't have as much effect on inflation on the economy as many think. The reason is the following; when QE dollars were created in 2008/09 it was to bail out the big banks who would have otherwise gone under, due, in large part to their toxic assets.

The QE dollars were deposited on the books of the companies to make them appear to be more financially robust than they were and "rescue" them. The Government bought those toxic bonds from the companies for this QE money. The QE money never entered the "main" economy per se. It stayed on the books (in stagnant accounts) of the banks until the bonds matured. QE doesn't cause inflation the way many people think because the dollars from it don't enter the economy the same way M1 money and "money in circulation" does.

The main culprits of inflation of the money supply are the ever increasing M1 and the "money in circulation". One of the main methods of achieving this inflation and creation of money, is by the purchase of treasury securities from the Fed by the banks.

This video highlights some of these points:

Yes, like you said, the QE money is not put into circulation to the public and given to banks and so forth.

Whatever the case, the USD became devalued due to the perception that the outlook on the economy doesn't look good (QE is a source of blame I think) and gold and commodities went up relative to the USD.

I'm going to guess that something similar will happen again and in addition I think people will also throw more money into Bitcoin if they see a weak dollar. I noticed that in the last financial crisis rich people were spreading around their money into baskets of currencies (euro, yen, yuan, etc) and I'm speculating that Bitcoin and/or ethereum will part of that basket this time around.

Post: #104

(12-27-2018 11:06 PM)The Father Wrote:  

(12-27-2018 08:46 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  Regarding stocks having no correlation to crypto. When the stock market collapses what you might get is quantitative easing and a dollar crisis. This brings us to Bitcoin and gold. We've already seen how 2008 lead to gold pumping from $400 to $2k. Bitcoin will probably pump too. So yes, stocks aren't correlated with Bitcoin but you can see how one can lead to affecting the other.

There's so little history on crypto currencies, it's hard to tell how correlated they will be to other asset classes, particularly at various phases of the economic cycle. For example, REITS, emerging market stocks, and other assets that are somewhat uncorrelated to the stock market during most phases of the cycle become MUCH more correlated during market crashes. We don't know if that will be the case for crypto, because there simply wasn't much trading volume in crypto the last time (2008/2009) we had a market crisis.

You are absolutely right. Nobody can tell the future, especially a guy like me that has zero background in economics. Just putting my thoughts out there.

The Bitcoin thing is entirely my speculation, I'm much more certain about gold. When the rich get fearful and uncertain about the economy and their currency they hedge with gold. I think most people would acknowledge this. I'm just arguing that Bitcoin will slowly become like that due to convenience and changing demographics of wealthy people (as young replace old, they might use Bitcoin instead of gold).

Post: #105

(12-26-2018 10:34 PM)Jetset Wrote:  A lot of this, in my opinion, is being driven by tax planning. With massive losses and index funds ruling the day, everybody is crushing the exits to get tax losses on the books before year-end and you saw that end today. Short sellers will put off covering until January and more demand should materialize then. That will be a more serious test of where we're headed.

Yep, agreed. I am selling off some shitty stocks today so I can get some capital loss on the books for 2018. Will possibly buy them back or wait for the market to upswing a bit next year and invest heavily.

I see this as an opportunity to buy... just gotta time it right

Post: #106

(12-27-2018 11:04 PM)robreke Wrote:  

(12-27-2018 08:46 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  Regarding stocks having no correlation to crypto. When the stock market collapses what you might get is quantitative easing and a dollar crisis. This brings us to Bitcoin and gold. We've already seen how 2008 lead to gold pumping from $400 to $2k. Bitcoin will probably pump too. So yes, stocks aren't correlated with Bitcoin but you can see how one can lead to affecting the other.

QE doesn't have as much effect on inflation on the economy as many think. The reason is the following; when QE dollars were created in 2008/09 it was to bail out the big banks who would have otherwise gone under, due, in large part to their toxic assets.

The QE dollars were deposited on the books of the companies to make them appear to be more financially robust than they were and "rescue" them. The Government bought those toxic bonds from the companies for this QE money. The QE money never entered the "main" economy per se. It stayed on the books (in stagnant accounts) of the banks until the bonds matured. QE doesn't cause inflation the way many people think because the dollars from it don't enter the economy the same way M1 money and "money in circulation" does.

The main culprits of inflation of the money supply are the ever increasing M1 and the "money in circulation". One of the main methods of achieving this inflation and creation of money, is by the purchase of treasury securities from the Fed by the banks.

This video highlights some of these points:

Armstrong talks about this all the time, the US Fed has nowhere near the problems with QE, (negative) interest rates, or inequities in lending than or example, the toxic ECB. Because of demographics on top of similar reasoning, Raoul Pal is not worried about inflation AT ALL.

I'm not worried about it because Armstrong knows that inflation is due to the fact that currencies are confidence games. Inflation comes only after confidence is lost, it has less to do with money supply, those of course they are related. That is, you don't print crazy money (Weimar, etc) UNTIL your con-game has already been exposed. Sorta funny, but true.

Gold bugs will be "right" as may the crypto bugs, when the confidence game starts fading. This won't happen until towards the next crash, because by that time the pensions are caput due to the market and bond crashes, in which the faith in gov't has already been lost. If we are in good position in the aftermath, life will be just fine, but it'll be a slow grind for DECADES for most everyone else.

Post: #107

(12-27-2018 11:11 PM)The Father Wrote:  

(12-27-2018 09:25 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  They don't crash when you aren't in recession. We aren't. All economic indicators are super solid, actually. I'm not just saying this because I'm a bull. I wasn't until I realized that the doomporn has been, and will be, consistently wrong.

Nearly all the major US economic indicators are relatively bullish, thanks for pointing that out. Most people don't actually look at the numbers, in fact, most don't even know what metrics to follow.

(12-27-2018 09:25 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Yes, we are moving towards a tremendous crash in the next 12 years, but the bubble before that is gonna be one helluva a run.

Ummm....i disagree on this part...next 12 years? Are you sure? Why 12? Why not 11 or 13?

Correct answer: Eventually we are likely to have another major correction, but no one knows when or how deep it will be. It's depth will likely bear some correlation to the extent of the runup that precedes it.

Haha, I make a bold speculation and your response is 11 or 13? LOL. Of course I don't know, so "disagreeing" is odd. There are reasons I chose 12 but it's fairly immaterial to the main point, which is not a particular number. And yes, the depth will be as you say, correlated to the runup that precedes it, which again, I say will be big. I also say there's a small chance for a big loss then one last huge runup then the biggest loss since 1929 --- 2 cycles. But my main prediction has been for a few years now, mid decade 2025 +- a year.

Post: #108

(12-28-2018 10:03 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Gold bugs will be "right" as may the crypto bugs, when the confidence game starts fading. This won't happen until towards the next crash, because by that time the pensions are caput due to the market and bond crashes, in which the faith in gov't has already been lost. If we are in good position in the aftermath, life will be just fine, but it'll be a slow grind for DECADES for most everyone else.

The last time, the government just took all the gold.

Be pretty hilarious if that's what happened again, honestly. All the cranky old gold bugs finally get their promised currency collapse and it helps them not at all as the men with guns show up and take their gold.

Post: #109

(12-28-2018 10:11 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Haha, I make a bold speculation and your response is 11 or 13? LOL.

Ummmmm....eh-k. You made a rather precise prediction ("in 12 years..."), which struck me as silly. So i tried to to be equally silly in return (11, 13, 492-to-the-second-power, whatevs). And I get...."haha, LOL". So I guess my return silliness is working!

Are you by any chance in one of the 8 states (and the District of Columbia) that has legalized the devil's lettuce?

(12-28-2018 10:11 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Of course I don't know

I know, that was the point i was making.

(12-28-2018 10:11 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  There are reasons I chose 12

Would you like to share them with us.

(12-28-2018 10:11 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  which is not a particular number.

I'm pretty sure it is!

(12-28-2018 10:11 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  But my main prediction has been for a few years now, mid decade 2025 +- a year.

That is also a very particular number. Once again, can you tell us how you arrived at it.

Post: #110

(12-28-2018 08:23 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  I'm much more certain about gold. When the rich get fearful and uncertain about the economy and their currency they hedge with gold. I think most people would acknowledge this.

The rich I know, when they feel the shit is hitting the fan, go into the following (in this order):

1) cash
2) swiss francs
3) Japanese yen
4) more cash
5) gold

I think the "rich go into gold" trope is an internet forum thing - young people talk about it but i don't actually know any wealthy people (and i know many) who put more than 5-10% of their capital in gold in even the worst of times. The ones I know (I spent many years on Wall St) put it into cash first and foremost, then a hodgepodge of other things named above. But probably 60% or more goes to cash.

Post: #111

(12-28-2018 10:28 PM)The Father Wrote:  I think the "rich go into gold" trope is an internet forum thing - young people talk about it but i don't actually know any wealthy people (and i know many) who put more than 5-10% of their capital in gold in even the worst of times. The ones I know (I spent many years on Wall St) put it into cash first and foremost, then a hodgepodge of other things named above. But probably 60% or more goes to cash.

I'm convinced that most of the people who buy large amounts of gold (Retail buyers, the guys buying physical gold off the internet) do it because it makes them feel smart and justifies their anti-social tendencies.

"Someday, everybody else is gonna be broke, and I'll be rich, because I'm smarter than all those people who believe the wall street hucksters!"

Post: #112

(12-28-2018 10:28 PM)The Father Wrote:  

(12-28-2018 08:23 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  I'm much more certain about gold. When the rich get fearful and uncertain about the economy and their currency they hedge with gold. I think most people would acknowledge this.

The rich I know, when they feel the shit is hitting the fan, go into the following (in this order):

1) cash
2) swiss francs
3) Japanese yen
4) more cash
5) gold

I think the "rich go into gold" trope is an internet forum thing - young people talk about it but i don't actually know any wealthy people (and i know many) who put more than 5-10% of their capital in gold in even the worst of times. The ones I know (I spent many years on Wall St) put it into cash first and foremost, then a hodgepodge of other things named above. But probably 60% or more goes to cash.

I wrote this on the same page:

Quote:I'm going to guess that something similar will happen again and in addition I think people will also throw more money into Bitcoin if they see a weak dollar. I noticed that in the last financial crisis rich people were spreading around their money into baskets of currencies (euro, yen, yuan, etc) and I'm speculating that Bitcoin and/or ethereum will part of that basket this time around.

Post: #113

^ Burner, there is reason to believe that something like BTC will emerge as an alternative asset class, due to its appeal to younger generations who don't trust the gov't or their currency games anymore. It remains to be seen what central banks do about crypto and it's confidential/cash like elements, which they hate, of course.

More from Mr. Armstrong:

Quote:The entire problem of lowering interest rates to “stimulate” the economy demonstrates that central banks cannot really manage anything. This theory is based upon the idea that if rates are cheap then you will borrow. They fail to even understand HOW the economy functions. The stock market and the economy has NEVER peaked with the same level of interest rates TWICE in history. If you BELIEVE the market will double you will pay 20% interest for a year. If you do not BELIEVE the market will rise at all, you will not borrow at 1%.

Pension funds were based upon the idea that at 8% you double your money in less than 10 years compounded. The system of a pension cannot function at interest rates of 1-3%. This is why states are raising taxes and going broke. They have to make up the losses on investments. Then throw in the corruption of governments. They directed pensions to be “conservative” and thus must own typically more t6han 50% government bonds up to 85% generally and some are at 100% like Social Security. The lower rates on government bonds, the greater the losses and thus taxes must be raised to compensate for state pensions.

Therefore, the Fed realizes that the next crisis is a pension crisis and they need to raise rates to help try to bail out the pension funds. They will not be able to raise the rates fast enough to avoid the crisis coming very rapidly which will contribute to raising tax rates and further suppressing economic growth into the future.

Post: #114

(12-28-2018 10:23 PM)The Father Wrote:  

(12-28-2018 10:11 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Of course I don't know

I know, that was the point i was making.

You are looking for some type of forensic knowledge, or prophetic and scientific analysis, yet a mere mortal such as myself can just give you wisdom, at best. Study, history, cycles, intuition --- these lead to best guesses, of course. I also said WITHIN ("in") 12 years, maybe 14, since that's Armstrong's final 2032 public debt cycle collapse, I believe end of 2032 on his ECM. Similar to gambling, you're still gonna go through variance, and he does quite well most of the time, but for a particular event (the big kahuna back breaker) it is very tough to nail, and nailing it really would just be a year or so in advance, since all that matters is a) you survive and b) how much you make is based on risk analysis of (a) not surviving. Test it longer? Great, maybe you get that s&p bubble high but you risk getting out and all other liquidity problems, as well.

The more I thought about it, the more I thought my original prediction, which coincides incidentally with the Trump final year of his 2nd term (just after, actually), is still my favored guess. I see it as the perfect time of the Fed staving off panic with workability of rates the next couple, and the pension crises beginning in the most mismanaged states (IL, NJ, CA, NY, etc) in 2020. The market, I'm guessing with foreign investors loving a rise again, will keep those pensions afloat for a little while, until it all comes crashing down which will cause a major gov't and societal chain reaction. Again, I'm guessing, but there could be a small quake, and then 1 more cycle (ending near Armstrong's 2032 date) as my alternate prediction, 20%.

Do what you will with this information, that's always the hardest part.

Post: #115

(12-29-2018 06:04 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  

(12-28-2018 10:28 PM)The Father Wrote:  

(12-28-2018 08:23 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  I'm much more certain about gold. When the rich get fearful and uncertain about the economy and their currency they hedge with gold. I think most people would acknowledge this.

The rich I know, when they feel the shit is hitting the fan, go into the following (in this order):

1) cash
2) swiss francs
3) Japanese yen
4) more cash
5) gold

I think the "rich go into gold" trope is an internet forum thing - young people talk about it but i don't actually know any wealthy people (and i know many) who put more than 5-10% of their capital in gold in even the worst of times. The ones I know (I spent many years on Wall St) put it into cash first and foremost, then a hodgepodge of other things named above. But probably 60% or more goes to cash.

I wrote this on the same page:

Quote:I'm going to guess that something similar will happen again and in addition I think people will also throw more money into Bitcoin if they see a weak dollar. I noticed that in the last financial crisis rich people were spreading around their money into baskets of currencies (euro, yen, yuan, etc) and I'm speculating that Bitcoin and/or ethereum will part of that basket this time around.

Where, exactly, did you "notice" this in the last crisis. Reading about it on the internet doesn't count - half the time its young idiots who want to sound like experienced adults and pretending to have more experience than they have. I know no rich people who would touch crypto as an investment (because its not an investment; its speculation...."investments" don't go from $3,000 to $20,000 and back to $3,000 again in a short period). I'm sure there are some (Winkelvoss twins?), but I they are unicorns. I also don't know anyone who advocate the euro or yuan as safe havens.

The red roulette wheel at the casino is as much a "safe haven" as crypto. Could double your money overnight, could lose it all. Hardly the characteristics of an investment, let alone a safe haven.

Post: #116

(12-29-2018 10:42 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  I also said WITHIN ("in") 12 years

You said "in 12 years", X will happen. "In" and "within" are two very different adverbs: One is a point in time and the other is a range of time.

(12-29-2018 10:42 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  a mere mortal such as myself can just give you wisdom, at best. Study, history, cycles, intuition

Study English

(12-29-2018 10:42 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  I'm guessing

Oh, we know!

Post: #117

(12-29-2018 11:11 AM)The Father Wrote:  

(12-29-2018 10:42 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  I also said WITHIN ("in") 12 years

You said "in 12 years", X will happen. "In" and "within" are two very different adverbs: One is a point in time and the other is a range of time.

(12-29-2018 10:42 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  a mere mortal such as myself can just give you wisdom, at best. Study, history, cycles, intuition

Study English

(12-29-2018 10:42 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  I'm guessing

Oh, we know!

Seriously, back the fuck up. I took a step back, answered more of your questions, gave my take, and now you give me an English lesson, and what's worse, you're fucking wrong.

"in the next 12 years" is WITHIN --- go read it again, and either don't mention it, or apologize for being an idiot

Before I get even more perturbed with your insolence, just let it go, you are incorrect on all levels. If you don't like my speculation, why ask for it? It's just stupid --- stop wasting our time with your gotcha posts, in which you are not accurate.

Post: #118

(12-29-2018 11:16 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Seriously, back the fuck up.

"in the next 12 years" is WITHIN --- go read it again

Seriously. It's not. https://english.stackexchange.com/questi...ng-to-time

(12-29-2018 11:16 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Before I get even more perturbed with your insolence, just let it go

Only you can stop you from getting perturbed by what others say/do/write. The rest of us are not in charge of your levels of perturbed-ness.

(12-29-2018 11:16 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  you are incorrect on all levels.

Such as?

(12-29-2018 11:16 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  a mere mortal such as myself can just give you wisdom

Cool! When does that start?

P.S. you still haven't told me why the world is going to end in 12 years, other than some vague references to some "Armstrong" (at least, I think that was you). Is that the feller who landed on the moon? I read a lot of economics and capital markets stuff - hours of it weekly, actually. Don't recall anyone else mentioning "Armstrong" as the reason the world will end IN twelve years. Tell me more...

Post: #119

What's this about a bear market? It's still a bull market baby!

Post: #120

Whoa. Out of politeness for another poster's position, i decided to research this "Armstrong" who inspired such exact prediction dates.

Martin Armstrong is an online purveyor of trading software (your first indication that his main interest is your wallet). He predicts VERY specific dates in which certain economic events will happen. He's been doing this for years. He's been wrong for years. His stuff is nonsense.

He once wrote that he predicted the exact DAY of the OCt 19, 1987 crash 13 years earlier: "In trying to test the validity of October 19th, 1987 being precise or coincidence, I stumbled upon something I never expected. This is the first time I will reveal something that I discovered and kept secret for the last 13 years. The total number of days within an 8.6-year business cycle was 3141. In reality, the 8.6-year cycle was equal to p (Pi) * 1000. Suddenly, there was clearly more at work than mere coincidence. Through extending my studies into physics, it became obvious that randomness was not a possibility."

OMG. People seriously believe this stuff? AND POST ABOUT IT SO OTHER PEOPLE ON THIS FORUM WILL SWALLOW IT??

The basis for the 2032 date as the end of some major economic cycle was written by this moron on Sept. 26, 1999:

"While this business cycle can be calculated on quarter-cycle intervals of 2.15 years into the final peak for this major wave formation of December 24th, 2032. Though this is long beyond my life expectancy, there is so much more behind the true understanding of the driving forces within the business cycle. I have learned that it is easy to claim coincidence and ignore the telltale signs of a hidden order."

That's right. He could tell - TO THE DAY! - what the economic cycle would look like in December 2032...in 1999! The Dec 24 reference is unlikely to be a coincidence; he also writes a lot about the star of Bethlehem signalling the birth of Jesus, etc.

The same year, he was convicted of stealing $700MM from investors.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

People have privately send me several PMs about this thread, thanking me for smacking out know-nothings who spew garbage. I tried to do it with some humor and goodwill. There was a thread recently about why don't older men MENTOR younger men, and one reason offered was that young men generally are are so unreceptive to it, due to false confidence in unsupported positions. I was this way, once. So i decided i'd try to help by offering some pointed but humorous insight.

Humor time is over. There is some SERIOUSLY stupid and fucked """advice""" being given above. Follow it at your own risk. The smart ones will ignore it. The dumb ones will argue "but...but....I BELIEVE!". Which one will you be? As the old saying goes, "If you walk into a room and can't tell who the sucker is...it's you". Maybe we should update it to "If you walk into an internet thread and can't tell..."

You are all busy men. Your time is limited. Your thirst for knowledge is real. You should be VERY, VERY upset with people who try to waste your time with bullshit theories on important topics (there are very topics as important to you as YOUR money) that they know very little about. They are a direct threat to your future wealth. Treat them accordingly. Inexperience is forgiveable. Stupidity is not. You should be violently angry at people who waste your time with bad advice.

Time to bury this thread. Read actual economic data and research, not internet charlatans. Read less about crypto (which is a tiny fraction of the world economy), trading cycles (spoiler alert: no one gets it right!) and more about the actual drivers of the economy and capital markets. You'll get rich slow this way. But you will get rich. All you'll get from following idiots is stupid and poor.

Post: #121

I went to the wiki site for Martin Armstrong, which reads, in part...

Quote:Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model is an economic cycle theory that proposes that economic waves occur every 8.6 years, or 3141 days, which is approximately pi times 1000...

Jesus Christ, that's embarrassing.

Post: #122

Post: #123

Thank you for posting about that hack Armstrong. His advice and predictions are functionally useless.

There's a thread on bitcointalk about the very man. A few people have been actually tracking his calls and have called them out as flat wrong.

Notice how he hasn't posted crap on his private blog during the most volatile time of the year? The guy is an above average trader but that's it. He's no better than dice at predicting price movements.

Edit: the last twenty pages have some of the most critical comments. The guy's a blubbering idiot conning people into think he's some Nostradamus.

Post: #124

(12-29-2018 01:51 PM)Johnnyvee Wrote:  

Very informative and useful. But not as entertaining as this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JRLCBb7qK8

Post: #125

Alex Jones is great fun to listen to, but he's another guy who's in the category of predicting 50 of the last 2 recessions.