Post: #101

Higgs it's not just Trump, but rather most Americans in general have never seen a third world country and what's in store for their children once our modern, safe bubble gets popped and turns latino shithole del norte.

Post: #102

If you go far enough south the Latinos run pretty clean places while insisting they aren't Latino.

This is my first big even year election I am missing as an expat, but the slight chance the deep blue pantsuit embassy staff put me in a black bag instead of handing me a ballot is enough for me to play spectator and offer prayers for MAGA. It seems clear the GOP is going to enlarge their margin in the senate while the house and state level offices are fights.

I expect the published polls were selected to feed pantsuit hopes, and pray the actual polls yield pantsuit nopes. Oddly the only election emails I have received abroad have been from the Pantsuits. In the past I stupidly tendered donations to a few Ron Paul campaigns and one Obama campaign. Republicans appear to be handicapping themselves going out of their way to avoid the slightest appearance of foreign interference. Thankfully my home district in old country is a safe Republican stronghold (John Shimkus) where the only win would have been running myself on a MAGA platform.

Post: #103

Just listened to this
Pretty eye opening
https://youtu.be/4JV7r2In40A
A very revealing study by Princeton University @ 8:00 explains why voting is...well, check it out

Post: #104

(11-05-2018 11:52 PM)Higgs Bosun Wrote:  Here is a whitepill-or blackpill, depending on how your look at it- concerning these midterms: it makes absolutely no difference if the GOP loses the House and it may in fact be beneficial.

No it won't. It will reward the left's demagogic behavior and encourage more of it. They'll feel vindicated. If you thought the REEEEEEEE mobs were bad this year, that's nothing compared to how they'll be if they're successful.

They need to be sent a message of rejection. In addition to not rewarding their behavior, it will demoralize them going into 2020.

They need to continue losing until they give up this Year Zero lunacy.

Let's not try to redefine what success means. This is psychological. Policy stopped being the most important thing a long time ago.

Post: #105

It's election day gentlemen.
Perform your holy exorcism at the voting booth today, strike terror onto the heart of the evil beast, and cast the last of these demon motherfuckers OUT.

Post: #106

Edit.

Post: #107

So Nate Silver has been writing novels these past few days. You remember him? He's the guy that gave Hillary a much higher chance of winning the presidency and when she lost, went on a rampage explaining why his "model" was still right.

Instead of dismissing him fully, I wanted to give him a chance since his data seems right, even if methodology could be questionable. I'm not sure where the RVF minds left him last time but wanted to see what people thought.

Here's his latest prediction where he gives Dems an 86% chance of winning the house although he does give Repubs ~80% for winning the senate: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fin...favorites/

Regarding the house, he says:

Quote:Here’s some perspective: An 86 percent chance is closer to Barack Obama’s odds of winning in 2012 than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. The difference is basically this: Clinton, who had a 71 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in our final forecast — much lower than most journalists and most other statistical models assumed, as I’m annoyingly obligated to point out — lost the Electoral College on the basis of one thing going wrong: She underperformed her polls among white-working class voters in the MIdwest and the Rust Belt. That alone was enough to cost her Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and therefore the Electoral College.1 Obama, by contrast, because he tended to overperform in the Midwest and in other key swing states, would have needed multiple things to go wrong to lose to Mitt Romney. Even if Romney had a systematic polling error in his favor, Obama might still have won by holding on to narrow victories in the key Electoral College states.

Post: #108

From someone who cannot vote in the US elections until you finally annex Australia as another state:

God save us from people who mean well. -storm

Post: #109

Reminder not to believe the exit polls you see released early today. In 2016 those all had Hillary becoming the next President. They are typically unreliable.

Post: #110

(11-06-2018 09:04 AM)Turnus Wrote:  Reminder not to believe the exit polls you see released early today. In 2016 those all had Hillary becoming the next President. They are typically unreliable.

Or 2000 Bush/Gore. Or...

Exit polls are the dog whistle for the LCD.

Post: #111

So speaking about Nate Silver, I just checked my email and saw this message from Predictit:

You all know Nate Silver, the famous prognosticator and founder of fivethirtyeight.com. Great guy. Except that he just called you “dumb”.

Okay, not exactly, he said prices on PredictIt are dumb. And it’s true there are some markets where your expectations and his are a bit out of whack.

For example, you’ve got the GOP at 58% to win Arizona's Senate race. Nate is at only 38%. You’re pricing Claire McCaskill at only 39% to keep her Missouri Senate seat. Nate is much more confident at 57%. And, the Democrats to win the House? He thinks it’s nearly a foregone conclusion at 88%. You’re hedging your bets at 72%.

So who’s right? We’ll know that later today. In the meantime, are you comfortable being called "dumb"? If not, get back on the site and vote with your money. Or maybe you want to take the advice of an expert and hedge your bets.

Either way, please spread the word about @PredictIt on Twitter and Facebook and let’s have some fun today. And may the best side win… for now. Remember, 2020 is just around the corner!

Team PredictIt

Post: #112

So starts the fuckery in my state(Arizona) again.
Before every election county recorder goes on all major media channels and assures they are well stocked with employees, volunteers, ballots and voting machines so as to not have any hiccups AND yet the same ol' shit continues.
People turned away, having to drive to multiple stations, long wait times, ballots not printing(meaning a shortage to begin with). One station was even foreclosed on overnight so now nobody can go in the damn building to vote!

Talk about voter suppression! This is mainly happening in moderate areas and I for one think this is coordinated fuckery.
5 places already and more reporting fuck ups and issues in other parts OF THE WHOLE STATE!
   

Post: #113

My voting location was practically empty. In a precinct that was suppose to be blue wave. Looks like a good sign.

Post: #114

Edit.

Post: #115

Republican turnout in Florida is supposedly in the stratosphere. Democrats were leading by 80-90,000 votes in 2016 in early voting, with Trump still winning the state. This time it was only about 22,000, and Trump's voters seem to be turning out. I'm still worried because the panhandle (which we'll need heavy turnout in) got hit by the hurricane but so far, so good.

On the other hand, things don't look as good in Indiana at the moment.

Post: #116

Delete

Post: #117

(11-06-2018 11:27 AM)ChicagoFire Wrote:  Nate Silver

We should have as much faith in Nate's predictions as Nate's top-draw game.



Nate Silver is predicting the Democrats pickup between 15 and 53 seats in The House. He seems to say that most of his predicted outcomes are below the required 23 seats. So I don't know where he's getting this 80% chance Dems take control.

I'm hoping that the only wave we hear about after the election is the black wave cooked up by Candace and Kanye. Given the close margins, some quite small shifts of blacks not voting or switching to The Trump Party are all that is required.

In terms of polling, they base it off past demographic data and the data suggests blacks have moved quite heavily to Trump. Also I think the chances that Trump voters are less likely to respond to polls are higher,

"Hi, it's Troy Anderson from Rasmussen Polls, polling for the mid term elections for CNN. Could I take a moment of your time."



I also wonder how many virtue signalling elitist will secretly vote Republican to keep their portfolio from going down the blue gurggler.

Post: #118

(11-05-2018 06:18 PM)Higgs Bosun Wrote:  

(11-05-2018 04:49 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  

(11-05-2018 04:14 PM)Cr33pin Wrote:  Fooled by what? I'm not Venmo'n the guy $5

However a lot of times he covers shit that I wouldn't see on CNN or any other major news outlet. If it wasn't for this video popping up in my feed I wouldn't know that the Georgia democratic party was under investigation for voter fraud.

I'm still confused as to what I'm being fooled by? Is the Georgia Democratic Party not under investigation?? If thats the case then yes I've been bamboozled

He's the male equivalent of a tradthot.

CNN posted an article about the Georgia Democratic Party investigation on November 4th and updated it on the 5th. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/politics/...index.html

Same time our Styxen boy did.

I don't follow CNN either, but it's just silly to assume he's talking about things the MSM media is missing. Pretty much every major outlet covered this one. Doing a search of his channel reveals more of the same. He covers the exact same stuff the major outlets do.

He's not anymore insightful, special, have access to secret knowledge, or reporting on under reported events anymore than our favorite tradthots do.

There is nothing wrong with "tradthots" we need hot women on our side to make our side sexy. Ultimately, there is nothing wrong with anyone who doesn't cuck, plain and simple. As far as this Styx character is concerned, I'm not a female looking to suck his dick so I don't give a shit if he's "alpha" or not. If he's not cucking and spreading a message helpful to our side then he's a pro and not a con, simple as that. We can ill afford to discard potential allies just because we don't approve of their fashion sense.

Ha!

With such soy'd allies who needs to worry about our enemies?
A thot is a thot regardless of genitalia.

Post: #119

All the liberal voters I know are acting like morally righteous crusaders today-- they've even got the 'I Voted!' stickers to prove it. It's laughable.

We're in for a potential meltdown of epic proportions.

Post: #120

Long lines (2+ hours long waits) in the hipster / gentrified areas of my deep blue city in a deep blue state. Not sure what the turnout is in my neighborhood (not very hipster). I'll know this evening when I go vote.

Post: #121

(11-06-2018 12:58 PM)Player_1337 Wrote:  All the liberal voters I know are acting like morally righteous crusaders today-- they've even got the 'I Voted!' stickers to prove it. It's laughable.

And when they don't get their way they will turn into spoiled 3 year old babies who got their bottle taken away from them. The satisfaction really lies into what depraved, unhinged, creatures liberals became after Trump won.

Post: #122

Latest Larry Schweikart Updates:

“Updates (that I’m allowed to share):

*Watkins appears to have held his seat in KS (take one off the D “flip list”
*Per Baris: Daryl Issa told him last night that “his” (Issa’s) is the only CA seat we’ll lose. (take 1-2 more off the Ds “flip list”)
*Sessions apparently is going to lose his seat (add one back)
*FL looking VERY good (but I can’t say more).
*Per Cuyahoga GOP: Ds were “up” in the county in their early/absentee vote (over 2016), Rs were “up more” (I’m sure he means as a %). Great news, as a D must come out of Cuyahoga up 150,000 to take the state.
*Anecdotal OH: hearing last couple of days of early voting in Claremont, Warren, and Butler (all red) were long lines to early vote.
*IA1 #s show that Ds were up in absentee/early over 2016 by a little over 1, Rs down .08, and Rod Blum won by 7 in 2016, so he may be safe.

As of now, 9:46 AZ time, Ds have lost a net two off their flip list and are at around 28 flippable seats. Magic # is 23. We expect to gain 2 in MN, which would make it 26. We are “hoping” that AZ1 flips as it seems, which would make it 25, and then we’d only have to hold 2 more seats on that entire list to hold the House. So far, so good.”

Post: #123

^^^

I’m getting a midterm erection.

Post: #124

Huge turnout in my blue district in NYC (some local positions only had one D choice at all, no other party).

Poll workers said it was busier than 2016.

Almost everyone looked left-leaning... 6’4” bad posture doughy guy being led by his short girlfriend, he wore a bright pink “Kittens Academy” shirt (wat?)... wonder what side he’s for...

Lots of smug expressions.

Good mix of newer yuppie transplants and older school neighborhood folks - lots of people of various backgrounds. I have heard many older minorities vocalize conservative views, but nobody today looked the part.

Maybe some are tired of Cuomo at least...

Post: #125

Take with a grain of salt, but so far, so good. I'm not sure if this is an exit poll or not, but if it is, remember that the exit polls said Trump was losing in Florida.

The governor's races are underrated in their importance. It's crucial that Gillum and Abrams lose. We can't let the Democrats build around them as new stars. They're insane.