Post: #26

I can see two scenarios when it comes to crypto prices in a recession.

1. The crypto bubble will pop just like the dotcom bubble did in early 2000's. Prices will crash across the board. A few coins may eventually recover and even exceed previous highs, just like a few dotcom companies became successful, but most of them will never recover.
2. Crypto currencies will behave much like gold and benefit from a flight to safety, particularly more established coins such as Bitcoin and Etherium.

Which scenario will take place is anybody's guess, but i think it will be either/or and not much in between.

Another scenario is a variant of the first one but more extreme: crypto currencies will go mainstream, prices will skyrocket, then crash and bring the entire economy into recession.

Post: #27

You know I initially thought that cryptocurrencies will go to the moon when recession hits, but then I realized that the people who are currently investing in cryptocurrency markets are speculating and are in it for the short-term capital gains.

They are investing to SELL at a higher price in the future.
They are just throwing couple thousand dollars or maybe 100k max just to play around with it for fun.
(I also tried to throw away 4 digit figures, but opted out as it was too volatile).

I think when recession hits, people will pull out and take their money out from the market as they will need money to put on their table immediately. Thus, I think the prices will actually tank and crash more.

Post: #28

(02-22-2018 03:19 PM)Dulceácido Wrote:  I'm just here for the lolz. I'm not trying to troll you guys and yeah, as was pointed out: I'm a no-coiner and I'll get out of your threads after this last post. Lend me an ear for just one moment.

blah blah blah

You know nothing, yet you talk.

Post: #29

Crypto will be valuable in the run up to a recession and during the aftermath, but in the end crypto will keep getting more valuable compared to fiat. This will be true for bitcoin (of course), but for the top 10.

While I'm not big on the alts, most are still way better than toilet paper money.

Post: #30

People invest in safe assets in recessions (cash, gold, bonds), cryptos will crash harder then any other asset class as they are higher risk.

Post: #31

I'm pretty sure we've seen recessions go through and crypto, or BTC at least has gone up. Even people in the forum were talking about how crypto was more portable than gold and how you can split crypto into so many satoshis.

Post: #32

everything is in a bubble. cryptos included. Commercial RE. crappy C apts are going for 5 caps, Fannie Mae Loans at 80% leverage and 5 years IO. property taxes going up, unemployment at 4% - nothing EVER good happens with unemployment at 4% labor market is too tight, interest rates rise and risk parity could blow the financial market to smithereens. investors are ALL IN. this time around however with interest rates rising.. bonds, stocks, RE will all crumble. and imagine the same with crypto when liquidity dries up.

try getting your money out of exchanges using tether during a global meltdown. it ain't gonna be pretty

Post: #33

OK so no strong consensus...

The next question:

Assuming the likelihood of a recession in the next 12-24 months is strong, what is everybody's plan of action? Do you hope to sell all before it hits, or will you hodl right through?

Post: #34

The bottom falls out of the crypto market pretty regularly (At least once every 3 months?) so you should be planning for that to begin with.

Post: #35

(02-26-2018 09:33 PM)Gas Wrote:  OK so no strong consensus...

The next question:

Assuming the likelihood of a recession in the next 12-24 months is strong, what is everybody's plan of action? Do you hope to sell all before it hits, or will you hodl right through?

I'll probably hodl through.

Post: #36

I think it will go down due to the appetite for risk falling dramatically but admittedly there are a lot of moving parts here that can move the crypto market for better or worse independent of the economic climate that are completely unpredictable and out of your control. I want to see a definitive stance taken by global governments on cryptocurrency on clearly legalizing/regulating before I would ever consider taking meaningful positions. I have no interest in being blindsided. Online poker operated in a similar gray area of the law as cryptocurrency has for a long time (nearly 10 years) before getting shut down. A lot of people thought that gold mine would last forever too.

Post: #37

Goldman Sachs didn't buy an online poker site, though, like they just bought Poloniex.

Post: #38

I would assess the receptiveness of global governments to cryptocurrencies at this point as neutral. The problem with this is I feel the neutral stance is driven more by most of them not viewing it as a competing currency, but rather a speculative asset since they don't identify a serious use case. I think if/when that use case evolves to posing an immediate threat to their currencies, their stance will get much harsher along with possible outright bans due to the immediate threat of capital flight on the economy in an attempt stave off the endgame. But bear in mind this could play out over a decade or two, with cryptocurrencies falling out of favor in the coming years and eventually coming back into favor at some later date.

Post: #39

(02-27-2018 12:01 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Goldman Sachs didn't buy an online poker site, though, like they just bought Poloniex.

Goldman didn't buy them Circle just received venture capital funding from them. Venture capital is a high risk business. But the business of an exchange is a goldmine. Anytime you can get people churning lots and lots of trades it generates a ton of commissions for the exchange with very little incremental cost to the exchange itself. I'm not surprised Circle is taking the risk because they probably see a lot of shady operators where if they can present a more polished reputable public facing company they can steal all the business from the rest.

Post: #40

Crypto's may become bigger than cash someday, but that day ain't today. Cash is still king and in a massive crash Cryptos WILL get slaughtered as a flight to safety occurs back into cash.

Afterwards, I expect movements like in 2008, where people begin piling into stocks, bonds, gold, silver, and a newly crashed crypto market.

Duceludo's misses the fact that crypto's have a big ease of holding advantage over traditional currency, being worldwide, and operating 24/7. They will be king someday, especially the one that cannot be controlled (Monero).

Post: #41

LOL. I sure riled some feathers for someone that knows nothing. When the world's energy and commodities markets are traded in bitcoin instead of US dollars, I'll be convinced that it's the "new reality," but as Samseau pointed out, that time is not now.

Post: #42

(02-27-2018 06:12 PM)Dulceácido Wrote:  LOL. I sure riled some feathers for someone that knows nothing. When the world's energy and commodities markets are traded in bitcoin instead of US dollars, I'll be convinced that it's the "new reality," but as Samseau pointed out, that time is not now.

Why does it matter if it's "the new reality" or just a cool and new tech that offers opportunity to make money?

Post: #43

How the Fuck can OP Babble On & On about some shit he doesn't even know? I mean I also don't know much about Crypto... but in a world where selfless cars are coming... do you really think the Government will keep Paper Bills around. Crypto won't crash... it's the whole system that will... and then crypto will become the de facto currency for the Government!

Post: #44

(02-26-2018 09:33 PM)Gas Wrote:  OK so no strong consensus...

The next question:

Assuming the likelihood of a recession in the next 12-24 months is strong, what is everybody's plan of action? Do you hope to sell all before it hits, or will you hodl right through?

Let's say that the prices crash more.
8k?
6k like we saw it couple weeks ago?
2k like the beginning of last year?
I thought that if the prices didn't hit 12k last week or two as it had some bullish market, it will crash to 8k, but my hypothesis was only half right. (Maybe it will crash to 8k next week or two, but I don't see it.)

Anyways, if the prices crash, I will try to take the advantage of those times and buy cheap.
One of the fundamentals of investing = "Buy low, sell high"
I still believe in the technology & the blockchain in the LT. I will buy MORE when it crashes HARD and take advantage of it. Basically reframe the negative to positive and make the market my bitch lol. (I say this now, but I can be wrong of course)

Post: #45

(02-27-2018 06:12 PM)Dulceácido Wrote:  LOL. I sure riled some feathers for someone that knows nothing. When the world's energy and commodities markets are traded in bitcoin instead of US dollars, I'll be convinced that it's the "new reality," but as Samseau pointed out, that time is not now.

I don't think you riled any feathers, actually I think all but a handful just ignored you because it was clear from the start you were uneducated on the subject. Most of us were hoping you would just exit like you said you would, but you're still here so...firstly you used the intrinsic value argument which is absurd. The USD is fiat. The very definition of fiat currency is "currency with no intrinsic value". The USD hasn't had intrinsic value since 1971. Anyone who has done a freshman economics course in any shitty community college in our country will know that.

Then you showed you had no idea what blockchain tech is or how it works.

Then you admitted that you have no open position on Bitcoin. If one is convinced it is going to be worth nothing, they would be short. If you haven't taken a position, it means you don't know. Nothing is wrong with not knowing, as long you shut up about it and don't pretend like you do. I have worked in trading a long time, I have never heard someone say "I'm certain this thing is going down, but I'm not shorting it." That's idiotic and it's the same as the guys who say "I could fuck all those hot girls if I wanted to but I don't."

Nobody said you can't comment or ask questions, but if you are going to post here best to stop acting like you know everything until you have actually read a book or two on the subject.

Post: #46

(02-27-2018 10:43 AM)Samseau Wrote:  Crypto's may become bigger than cash someday, but that day ain't today. Cash is still king and in a massive crash Cryptos WILL get slaughtered as a flight to safety occurs back into cash.

Afterwards, I expect movements like in 2008, where people begin piling into stocks, bonds, gold, silver, and a newly crashed crypto market.

Duceludo's misses the fact that crypto's have a big ease of holding advantage over traditional currency, being worldwide, and operating 24/7. They will be king someday, especially the one that cannot be controlled (Monero).

I'm of the thought that it will depend mostly on timing. If a recession hits this year, all cryptos, including Bitcoin, will get slaughtered just like stocks do. If the recession hits in a few years, maybe 2020, then I think Bitcoin will have seen much more mainstream adoption and has a much better chance of being seen as a store of value like gold. Most altcoins will get a beatdown similar to stocks in any situation, I assume.

I will still hodl at least some of my portfolio in Bitcoin regardless.

Post: #47

(02-28-2018 12:27 AM)Gas Wrote:  

(02-27-2018 06:12 PM)Dulceácido Wrote:  LOL. I sure riled some feathers for someone that knows nothing. When the world's energy and commodities markets are traded in bitcoin instead of US dollars, I'll be convinced that it's the "new reality," but as Samseau pointed out, that time is not now.

I don't think you riled any feathers, actually I think all but a handful just ignored you because it was clear from the start you were uneducated on the subject. Most of us were hoping you would just exit like you said you would, but you're still here so...firstly you used the intrinsic value argument which is absurd. The USD is fiat. The very definition of fiat currency is "currency with no intrinsic value". The USD hasn't had intrinsic value since 1971. Anyone who has done a freshman economics course in any shitty community college in our country will know that.

Then you showed you had no idea what blockchain tech is or how it works.

Then you admitted that you have no open position on Bitcoin. If one is convinced it is going to be worth nothing, they would be short. If you haven't taken a position, it means you don't know. Nothing is wrong with not knowing, as long you shut up about it and don't pretend like you do. I have worked in trading a long time, I have never heard someone say "I'm certain this thing is going down, but I'm not shorting it." That's idiotic and it's the same as the guys who say "I could fuck all those hot girls if I wanted to but I don't."

Nobody said you can't comment or ask questions, but if you are going to post here best to stop acting like you know everything until you have actually read a book or two on the subject.

I said I'd leave the thread if no one addressed me, but it seems many of you can't stop.

And besides, I'm not the one getting shot up by my own supporters:

(02-27-2018 10:09 PM)Captain Gh Wrote:  How the Fuck can OP Babble On & On about some shit he doesn't even know? I mean I also don't know much about Crypto... but in a world where selfless cars are coming... do you really think the Government will keep Paper Bills around. Crypto won't crash... it's the whole system that will... and then crypto will become the de facto currency for the Government!

Pretty sure I know how a block chain works. And I also know that the USD is a fiat currency. When I was referring to intrinsic value, I was referring to goods and real estate. Unfortunately, or fortunately, however you want to look at it, things are still bought with USD. It is the standard of worldwide trade.

I don't "short" cryptocurrencies because I don't know the exact date they are going to circle the toilet, so please don't give me investment advice. I've figured it out so far without your help and without one single bitcoin. I have 2 homes, a car, food, a booming IRA, plenty of spending money, zero debt, and I buy whatever I want--guess what? Never had a single bitcoin...

Post: #48

I don't understand why you think it's something extraordinary that you're posting things and people are responding to them.
That's how message boards work.

I also don't understand why you're bragging about your IRA on an internet forum. Do you have a sweet benefits package, as well as triple overtime on holidays, too?

Post: #49

I'm not bragging. Not at all. Just pointing out I don't need bitcoins, so I'm not easily goaded into buying or short selling them.

Post: #50

Nothing can grow to $500B market cap without government's support. 90% of blockchain solutions are going to facilitate control and reduce risks for multinational corps. Blockchain tech is as pro-government as it can be. There are some outliers like Monero but the majority of coins are utility tokens that will make government's job way easier than now.