Post: #1

About a Bubble and Margin Call that will cause a crash in all assets.
Check this out:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsho...the-market

Post: #2

No, you need to explain what it is first, this isn't Reddit.

Post: #3

(03-07-2016 03:45 PM)Roosh Wrote:  We have a lot of newbies here who don't know the best way to share articles and other links, so I wanted to create a brief guide.

How To Start A New Thread With Something You Want To Share:

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Post: #4

I am an outlaw.

But i want to help the sheeps.

Post: #5

The gist of the article is that the amount of borrowed money being used to buy on the NYSE has never been so astronomically high:



If the stock price collapses even by a small amount, then there will be a desperate sell-off by overleveraged people desperately trying to pay off their debt, which will only cause the stock price to collapse further triggering a mass sell-off, since no one is investing real money in the stock market anymore - it's all borrowed leveraged money.

Note that the sheer size of the debt involved in the NYSE dwarfs any previous debt bubble. The popping of this bubble could be a catastrophic depression-level event.

Post: #6

Even though the margin debt is at record highs let’s not exaggerate things. The S&P500 has a market capitalisation of over $20 trillion. 300 or 400 billion of Margin debt (according to the above graph) against $20+ trillion of market value does not seem like the end of the world.

Post: #7

Seems like there's a crash every 8-10 years. I saw a dip on 2015, so that could be a minidump, with a big one coming in 2023, or one coming in 2019. I think my company's consensus is 2019 small dip and 2023 correction.

I do agree with Australia, that this article would be a lot more helpful if they had a total MC for the S&P, and a percentage of debt comparison vs the S/P as a whole.

Post: #8

(12-30-2017 04:34 AM)True Balla Wrote:  Seems like there's a crash every 8-10 years. I saw a dip on 2015, so that could be a minidump, with a big one coming in 2023, or one coming in 2019. I think my company's consensus is 2019 small dip and 2023 correction.

I do agree with Australia, that this article would be a lot more helpful if they had a total MC for the S&P, and a percentage of debt comparison vs the S/P as a whole.

2015 was a correction and not a crash. A crash will come soon.

Post: #9

So, here's a question that may or may not be stupid: say this is true and stock prices dip a little and it does trigger a massive sell off and collapse in stock markets worldwide. In what way would that affect cryptocurrencies? Would they fall like stocks, go up in value, or is there no good way to say?

Post: #10

^^all assets will most likely get hit as people pull everything into cash to cover their asses.

Though, I believe we might see a rush into them in the same way people desperate for yield used to rush into bonds. With interests rates so damn low, I don't think people will run to bonds like they used to.

Post: #11

(12-30-2017 03:23 AM)Australia Sucks Wrote:  Even though the margin debt is at record highs let’s not exaggerate things. The S&P500 has a market capitalisation of over $20 trillion. 300 or 400 billion of Margin debt (according to the above graph) against $20+ trillion of market value does not seem like the end of the world.

Yes, the graphic is very intentionally misleading, and to the uninformed person it would look like the amount of borrowing is proportionate to the amount of the S&P increase.

As long as rates are slowly eased up, there will be plenty of time to let air out of the bubble without a huge crash.

Post: #12

(12-30-2017 04:55 PM)bucky Wrote:  So, here's a question that may or may not be stupid: say this is true and stock prices dip a little and it does trigger a massive sell off and collapse in stock markets worldwide. In what way would that affect cryptocurrencies? Would they fall like stocks, go up in value, or is there no good way to say?

Crashes tend to be infectious, like when the housing bubble of 2007 pulled everything else down with it.

What will happen may be something like this:
- Stock markets crash
- Overleveraged speculators are unable to pay the banks the couple of millions that are owed to the banks
- Plus the banking sector itself invests in the stock market, thus losing a lot of value
- In effect the banks run out of cash, both from defaulting stock speculators and from the inability to turn their stock into cash (because the stock price is relatively worthless)
- This causes the banks to throttle lending and get hard ball on collecting any other debt; this leads to a decrease in consumer credit and business credit;
- The fall in overall credit offerred causes the economy to slow down and reduces growth
- Lack of growth and opportunity makes people run to the banks to take their cash, because they are struggling to make money in the real world economy, which only freaks out the banks more and may cause the collapse of weaker banks (because they will no longer be able to give their customers, the ones with savings accounts, any money - because they're 'savings' were all tied up in worthless stocks and debt)
- Collapse of even one bank will lead to a collapse of trust in the system and people will rush to withdraw their cash, ultimately leaving the banking system with nothing. Credit offerings will disappear.
- Since the modern day economy heavily relies on credit for growth, this causes the economy to collapse as a whole
- With increasing unemployment and poor business performance, people will sell their assets to put bread on the table
- Cryptos will generally be sold and demand for cryptos will be sluggish (you can't eat cryptos, and in a depression people are mostly concerned about paying for the necessities, not for assets); this will lead to a relative oversupply of people trying to get rid of cryptos, leading to a collapse in crypto price.

That's my 2c.

Post: #13

(01-01-2018 01:10 PM)Thomas the Rhymer Wrote:  

(12-30-2017 04:55 PM)bucky Wrote:  So, here's a question that may or may not be stupid: say this is true and stock prices dip a little and it does trigger a massive sell off and collapse in stock markets worldwide. In what way would that affect cryptocurrencies? Would they fall like stocks, go up in value, or is there no good way to say?

Crashes tend to be infectious, like when the housing bubble of 2007 pulled everything else down with it.

What will happen may be something like this:
- Stock markets crash
- Overleveraged speculators are unable to pay the banks the couple of millions that are owed to the banks
- Plus the banking sector itself invests in the stock market, thus losing a lot of value
- In effect the banks run out of cash, both from defaulting stock speculators and from the inability to turn their stock into cash (because the stock price is relatively worthless)
- This causes the banks to throttle lending and get hard ball on collecting any other debt; this leads to a decrease in consumer credit and business credit;
- The fall in overall credit offerred causes the economy to slow down and reduces growth
- Lack of growth and opportunity makes people run to the banks to take their cash, because they are struggling to make money in the real world economy, which only freaks out the banks more and may cause the collapse of weaker banks (because they will no longer be able to give their customers, the ones with savings accounts, any money - because they're 'savings' were all tied up in worthless stocks and debt)
- Collapse of even one bank will lead to a collapse of trust in the system and people will rush to withdraw their cash, ultimately leaving the banking system with nothing. Credit offerings will disappear.
- Since the modern day economy heavily relies on credit for growth, this causes the economy to collapse as a whole
- With increasing unemployment and poor business performance, people will sell their assets to put bread on the table
- Cryptos will generally be sold and demand for cryptos will be sluggish (you can't eat cryptos, and in a depression people are mostly concerned about paying for the necessities, not for assets); this will lead to a relative oversupply of people trying to get rid of cryptos, leading to a collapse in crypto price.

That's my 2c.

thanks for the post. The problem is that nobody knows when the crash come. It can be tomorrow or in 3 years. In this time you can make millions with cryptos.