Post: #126

Texas Southern is the best 0-9 team in college basketball. Took them +19.5 vs in-state opponent Baylor for 1 unit. Also LOVE the team total over 62. They are battle tested against some excellent teams and have never scored under 64 to date. Baylor runs a pretty fast pace with less than stellar defense, which most recently let up 82 at home to the....the Saints of Hillsdale Free Will Baptist College? My second 3-unit bet of the year.

Fuck it. 10 units.

Post: #127

Current balance: 1352.56
Initial balance: 1000

Post: #128

Nba player performance
Rudy gay under 6.5 rebounds odd 2 stake 1 @bet365

Post: #129

Current balance: 1252.56

Post: #130

NFL
Byron Jones under 5.5 tackles and assists odd 1.80 stake 1.5 @bet365 (Dallas game)

NBA
John Wall over 29.5 points, rebounds and assists odd 1.83 stake 1 @bet365

Post: #131

Easy night last night.
Current balance:1455.90 dollars
Initial balance: 1000 dollars

Post: #132

Wow pitt I just want to say I really admire what you are doing. It takes some serious mental toughness to start off badly like you did and then not panic by chasing loses. It shows that the books can be beat with patience and a sound strategy. Keep it up!

Post: #133

NFL (Falcons game)
Player total rush attempts
Devonta Freeman over 18.5 odd 1.80 stake 1 @ bet365

NBA players performance
Kelly Olynyk
Over 5.5 rebounds odd 1.72 stake 1 (Miami heat game) @ betfair

Post: #134

(12-18-2017 07:20 AM)PrimeTime32 Wrote:  Wow pitt I just want to say I really admire what you are doing. It takes some serious mental toughness to start off badly like you did and then not panic by chasing loses. It shows that the books can be beat with patience and a sound strategy. Keep it up!

Thanks man.

It took me years to have such self discipline. Punters who are able to lose and not chase losses will always be above the average punter. ''Self discipline, emotional control and delayed gratification''.

Post: #135

Current balance:1435.90

Kelly had 5 rebounds by the third quarter but he didn't come in for the last quarter. Bad luck.

Freeman 22 rush attempts.

Post: #136

Virginia vs Savannah St - U155

Virginia hasn't scored more than 93 points all season. Let's say they pick up the pace and really lay a hurting on Savannah State, and score 100 just to be dicks. This defense, that hasn't given up more than 68 all season (to #10 ranked West Virginia) is not going to give up 55 to Savannah State.

Max bet.

Post: #137

NBA
John Wall over 7.5 assists odd 1.61 stake 1 @ bet365

Post: #138

NCAAB
Georgia Tech vs Georgia
Over 126.5 points, stake 1, odd 1.90 @ bet365

Elon vs Canisius
Canisius wins odd 1.74 stake 1 @ bet365

Post: #139

Hat-trick last night.

Current balance: 1661.81

Post: #140

Today's bets, most favorite to least favorite:

Evansville team total O12 (first 10 minutes) vs Duke

Duke is going to score easily and often. I expect Evansville to get plenty of possessions in the first 10 minutes while Marvin Bagley shits down their throat on the offensive end. 10 minutes should be enough time to convert six buckets, especially when they will hold the ball the majority of the time.

Southern U vs Baylor O137.5

Baylor has size that most mid-major schools just can't deal with. I watched them play Texas Southern the other night and they scored inside with comical ease. They played mid-majors in their last three games, and averaged 107 ppg. I expect more of the same here - from what I read it looks like Southern U only has one decent big man to bang inside. Really like this one.

Coppin State vs WVU U145

I like this pick due to Coppin State's inability to score against high caliber athletes. Rutgers, a strong defensive team, held them to 39 points. They are averaging 55 points per game - if you remove games against garbage opponents UMBC and Cenral Connecticut State, this drops to 51. I'm hoping they can hold WVU to <90 points, which will make the under very likely.

Wofford Team Total U65

Wofford is another team that struggles to score against elite athletes, which UNC has plenty of. South Carolina and Texas Tech held them to 52 and 56 respectively. UNC is a very good defensive team. My only concern is that they score too fast on the offensive end and give Wofford too many possessions.

Post: #141

NBA
Boston Celtics over 104 points odd 1.83 @ bet365 stake 1

Post: #142

Bad pick
Current balance:1561.81

Post: #143

(12-20-2017 01:52 PM)Eddie Winslow Wrote:  Today's bets, most favorite to least favorite:

Evansville team total O12 (first 10 minutes) vs Duke

Duke is going to score easily and often. I expect Evansville to get plenty of possessions in the first 10 minutes while Marvin Bagley shits down their throat on the offensive end. 10 minutes should be enough time to convert six buckets, especially when they will hold the ball the majority of the time.

Southern U vs Baylor O137.5

Baylor has size that most mid-major schools just can't deal with. I watched them play Texas Southern the other night and they scored inside with comical ease. They played mid-majors in their last three games, and averaged 107 ppg. I expect more of the same here - from what I read it looks like Southern U only has one decent big man to bang inside. Really like this one.

Coppin State vs WVU U145

I like this pick due to Coppin State's inability to score against high caliber athletes. Rutgers, a strong defensive team, held them to 39 points. They are averaging 55 points per game - if you remove games against garbage opponents UMBC and Cenral Connecticut State, this drops to 51. I'm hoping they can hold WVU to <90 points, which will make the under very likely.

Wofford Team Total U65

Wofford is another team that struggles to score against elite athletes, which UNC has plenty of. South Carolina and Texas Tech held them to 52 and 56 respectively. UNC is a very good defensive team. My only concern is that they score too fast on the offensive end and give Wofford too many possessions.

Went 3-1 yesterday. Got to learn all about Wofford's Fletcher Magee. Also thought it was funny that I hit Evansville Over 12 for the first 10 minutes pretty easily despite the fact they only scored 40 for the whole game and lost by 60.

Post: #144

My favorite pick for today is Maryland-FDU Under 152.5.

From what I can tell this is a carbon copy of my two recent Under picks for UVA and WVU, both which I covered by 20+ points and won a shit ton on.

Power conference school with excellent defense and athletes + Mediocre (or worse) Mid-Major on the road lacking size and offensive firepower + total greater 150 = $$$

I'm only going 2 units here because I am slightly concerned that Maryland will score too much with their size. They have six(!) players 6'7 or taller that get a ton of minutes, including two ~7 footers. FDU has two dudes who are 6'8". I'm also going two units on FDU Team Total Under 64.5 because I think they are going to seriously, seriously struggle to score and rebound, and also to hedge my overall U 152.5 bet.

Post: #145

(12-21-2017 09:03 AM)Eddie Winslow Wrote:  Also thought it was funny that I hit Evansville Over 12 for the first 10 minutes pretty easily despite the fact they only scored 40 for the whole game and lost by 60.

This blew my mind, what kind of sorcery is this?!

Post: #146

How many people would you guess bet on a single game?

Post: #147

Two other bets I love:

Alabama A&M Over 10 (first 10 minutes) vs Michigan.

Alabama A&M is fucking terrible, there's no denying that. However, they will get a ton of possessions early as I expect Michigan to push the pace on the offensive end. Abdur-Rahkman loves to attack the bucket and Michigan's best big man is out injured, which may push the pace even more. Alabama A&M may get 20 possessions in the first 10 minutes. I'm betting at least one unit on any D1 team in America to convert on 25% of those at -110.

UCF vs South Carolina St - Under 136.5

Very similar to the the Maryland under bet since UCF's defense is great, although UCF just doesn't have the offensive firepower that the Terps do. I think they absolutely max out at around 75 points. That means worst case, SCST needs to score 62. Only two schools have put up more than 65 all season - Nebraska, St Johns, and Alabama weren't able to do it. Neither with South Carolina St.

Post: #148

Spanish football
Real madrid vs Barcelona
To be booked: Sergio Busquets
odd 1.83 stake 1 @ betfair/paddypower

Post: #149

The UCF game was an unpleasant surprise, but Alabama A&M got the job done as expected. Maryland-FDU crushed the line by 27.5 points.

Not going to lie - I'm feeling cocky as fuck about my picks.

I have another pick that I love just as much as the Maryland game - we're going to get really obscure with this one.

Bryn Athyn at NJIT Over 137.5

Bryan Athyn only has one guy taller than 6'4" on their whole roster, and he has only seen about 14 minutes per game. NJIT has played real competition like Rutgers, Seton Hall, and WVU, and has shown the ability to score at a respectable rate. NJIT put up 116 at home against another local D3 school with a bunch of short players (that somehow were still collectively taller than Bryn Athyn).

I'd be pretty surprised if NJIT doesn't put up 90, and I think their opponent can manage to put up at least 47.

Post: #150

Eddie it would be good if you had a balance that accounts for all your picks, we have no idea how good or bad you are doing.