Post: #1

Just saw this article in Spanish - http://internacional.elpais.com/internac...44905.html

The gist of it is that Chavez will likely be dead in less than two years, which is squarely in line with any available evidence or rumors that I am aware of.

I'd just like to repost what I wrote in a thread not long ago:

"How are your Spanish language skills? How comfortable are you dealing with opaque legal and regulatory environments where unofficial payments are commonplace?

If you can handle it, I would say invest in Veneuela, that is where a huge profit stands to be made.

You will have to be creative in terms of how you make your purchase. The black market for dollars is huge, and if you purchase a property based on the official rate for the Bolivar, you will be screwed. Figure out how to get your coveted American dollars to whoever is selling.

Don't listen to the endless crap about Brazil and the world cup and the olympics. This is a bandwagon, and all of the low hanging fruit in terms of pricing opportunities has passed. THE time to invest in Brazil was in 2002 right before Lula's election, when investor hysteria created capital flight and sent the real up to 4/$.

Chavez will be dead soon. The heavy oil tar in the Orinoco area will provide hundreds of billions to the Venezuelan economy in the coming decades.

There will not be another Chavez, and the various factions of Venezuelan society will reach some sort of arrangment, which no matter how bad it is, will be much better for stability and growth than anything in the past.

Everyone is so scared about what they read in the papers regarding violence and property confiscation, that it is a perfect time.

Fortunes are made when there is blood in the streets. "

Post: #2

I remember this post.

It was good.

"There will not be another Chavez"

Why do you say this?

What moves are you looking at in Venezuela? Property? Or anything else?

Post: #3

Investing is other countries can be a real pain in the ass. Hell, investing in other states can be a pain in the ass. I live in Northern California and my family has property in Southern California.
That is even too far sometimes.

Whatever money you invest you better be prepared to lose. If you don't have any high powered local contacts on the ground, you are really taking a chance.

I prefer to keep my investments local, for the sake of convenience and time.

But, I'm a small fish. If I was rich I would buy a brothel in Venezuela!

Post: #4

(02-28-2012 11:51 AM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  I remember this post.

It was good.

"There will not be another Chavez"

Why do you say this?

What moves are you looking at in Venezuela? Property? Or anything else?

I say this because he created a system that greatly centralized any decision making of importance, and completely gutted what functioning civil and democratic institutions Venezuela did have when he arrived on the scene. You can see the effects of this on all levels in Venezuelan society - the crime rate has soared, infrastructure is crumbling, government ministries and the oil company are rife with incompetent political appointees and the result is a fantastic drain on the Venezuelan economy.
There is no credible "second in command" who could conceivably step into the void Chavez will leave. No one has his following or charisma or batshiat craziness.
There will likely be a transition period at least partly overseen by the military, and a year to two after Chavez's death, and following relatively minor incidents of rioting and civil strife, there will be something resembling a real democratic election. After that, the process of remaking Venezuelan civil society will begin, and with Venezuela's oil money, and the booming economies of Brazil and Colombia to the North and South, prospects are excellent.
There is a massive tsunami of private capital that will flood into Venezuela as soon as it becomes clear that once again there is a somewhat functional legal system and that it is possible to invest without getting your shit robbed by the government.
I am considering getting into Venezuela early because I went to boarding school with a wealthy Venezuelan guy, and we stay in touch on facebook, and I know he is the one person I could trust and who could open doors.

Post: #5

I also like ''unstable'' countries to invest. They are likely to give you lots of money fast if you play smart and make the right connections.

Whats in Venezuela to invest apart from properties?

Post: #6

(02-28-2012 01:00 PM)pitt Wrote:  I also like ''unstable'' countries to invest. They are likely to give you lots of money fast if you play smart and make the right connections.

Whats in Venezuela to invest apart from properties?

I think any small or medium sized companies relating to food production, transport, or storage would be good. Right now, because of stupid policies like fixing official prices below the cost of production, there is severely depressed domestic agricultural production, forcing Venezuela to pay billions for imports from Colombia, and leading to widespread shortages and long lines for basic products like milk, eggs, cooking oil, just like in the Soviet Union...who could possibly have predicted such an outcome?

Post: #7

A friend of mine went to Venezuela ,he was mugged twice.....by the Police.

I wonder what the local lawyers and accountants do to you!

Post: #8

This is an interesting idea. The last time I was in Isla Margarita, I was amazed at how much virgin beachfront property there was. There are literally miles and miles of beaches that are totally unpopulated, but that are absolutely gorgeous. Margarita has a developed, somewhat modern airport and reasonably good roads (by Venezuela's standards). It also has a totally modern mall with all western stores and pretty great nightlife. If I had the cash, I would buy some beachfront property. I think it's just a matter of time before the American and European tourists that Chavez scared off will be back. Or, just buy some beautiful beachfront, open a posada with a restaurant, and bang beautiful venezuelan chicks in Porlomar on the weekend. Actually, if someone wants to do this and needs a business partner, let me know.

Post: #9

(02-29-2012 01:50 PM)Nom_De_Guerre Wrote:  This is an interesting idea. The last time I was in Isla Margarita, I was amazed at how much virgin beachfront property there was. There are literally miles and miles of beaches that are totally unpopulated, but that are absolutely gorgeous. Margarita has a developed, somewhat modern airport and reasonably good roads (by Venezuela's standards). It also has a totally modern mall with all western stores and pretty great nightlife. If I had the cash, I would buy some beachfront property. I think it's just a matter of time before the American and European tourists that Chavez scared off will be back. Or, just buy some beautiful beachfront, open a posada with a restaurant, and bang beautiful venezuelan chicks in Porlomar on the weekend. Actually, if someone wants to do this and needs a business partner, let me know.

What is Porlamar like?

Bust out a Data Sheet!

Post: #10

I don't know if I'd invest in Venezuela, but I wouldn't mind working there sometime in the near future:

"Chavez will be dead soon. The heavy oil tar in the Orinoco area will provide hundreds of billions to the Venezuelan economy in the coming decades."

The oil in Venezuela is VERY similar to the heavy oil that we have in the Canadian oil sands, there are hundreds of Venezuelan oil and gas professionals working in Alberta right now, they fled the country after Chavez starting cracking down on big oil there. They were a very much welcomed addition to our economy. I don't know how much technological advancement in the area of heavy oil is coming out of Venezuela these days (my guess is little) but there is a lot being developed in Alberta, hopefully once he's gone we'll see a flow of Canadian technology and workers making their way down there!

Post: #11

Quote:I don't know how much technological advancement in the area of heavy oil is coming out of Venezuela these days (my guess is little) but there is a lot being developed in Alberta, hopefully once he's gone we'll see a flow of Canadian technology and workers making their way down there!

All the R&D is in Alberta right now. It is ground zero for this type of oil extraction. Once the cost per barrel is lowered, Russia and (soon enough) Venezuela will be next in line. If companies like Syncrude play their cards right, they will have a market cap similar to companies like BHP Billiton.

You are in a good place right now Scotian (career wise)

Post: #12

(02-29-2012 01:50 PM)Nom_De_Guerre Wrote:  This is an interesting idea. The last time I was in Isla Margarita, I was amazed at how much virgin beachfront property there was. There are literally miles and miles of beaches that are totally unpopulated, but that are absolutely gorgeous. Margarita has a developed, somewhat modern airport and reasonably good roads (by Venezuela's standards). It also has a totally modern mall with all western stores and pretty great nightlife. If I had the cash, I would buy some beachfront property. I think it's just a matter of time before the American and European tourists that Chavez scared off will be back. Or, just buy some beautiful beachfront, open a posada with a restaurant, and bang beautiful venezuelan chicks in Porlomar on the weekend. Actually, if someone wants to do this and needs a business partner, let me know.

What is the land price and the laws regarding foreign ownership?

Post: #13

How do we know Chavez won't ensure his party stays in power indefinitely after he's gone?

Post: #14

(03-02-2012 11:08 AM)ElJefe Wrote:  How do we know Chavez won't ensure his party stays in power indefinitely after he's gone?

You don't... Venezuela became a shithole, one of the worst places in the world you want to do business, or live at this moment. The only hopes are that the US interferes heavily in the process to setup a new government in the future, if it comes.

If it does, money can be made though, but it's not yet the time to invest.

Post: #15

(03-03-2012 04:48 AM)GiovanniRio Wrote:  The only hopes are that the US interferes heavily in the process to setup a new government in the future, if it comes.

What interest does the U.S. have in Venezuela?

Post: #16

(03-02-2012 11:08 AM)ElJefe Wrote:  How do we know Chavez won't ensure his party stays in power indefinitely after he's gone?

Good question. I just finished watching the shock doctrine and couldn't help but see venezuela could be in line for a change similar to what Chile went thru in the 70's. If any thing you will be getting in on the ground floor.

Shock doctrine
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iW1SHPgUAQ

Post: #17

(03-03-2012 09:00 AM)Smitty Wrote:  What interest does the U.S. have in Venezuela?

I think maybe their oil...If not that the platypus's

Post: #18

I read Chavez had replaced high ranking military officers after the attempted coup in 2002. He himself was a Colonel, and I cannot believe he has ensured all high ranking officers aren't "screened" for political reliability. Venezuela is also cozying up with Iran, Russia and Nicaragua, among others. I think his creed is so strong he will ensure the Socialists inherit power no matter what, even if it means suppressng the opposition with violence (given he supported Gaddafi in doing so).

I do not doubt the country has potential, but I am wary of a New Cold War coming on, and I think Chavez has fixed it so Venezuela is going be rolling with the bad guys.

Post: #19

i heard venezuela is the next cuba. remember cuba in 1957? everyone who had invested their lost everything

Post: #20

Bumping for relevancy today.

OP called it! I think there are some great opportunities here waiting to be exploited.

Post: #21

depends on the elections.
It is a gold mine, but at the moment is also a time bomb.

Post: #22

(02-29-2012 08:16 PM)Laner Wrote:  

Quote:I don't know how much technological advancement in the area of heavy oil is coming out of Venezuela these days (my guess is little) but there is a lot being developed in Alberta, hopefully once he's gone we'll see a flow of Canadian technology and workers making their way down there!

All the R&D is in Alberta right now. It is ground zero for this type of oil extraction. Once the cost per barrel is lowered, Russia and (soon enough) Venezuela will be next in line. If companies like Syncrude play their cards right, they will have a market cap similar to companies like BHP Billiton.

You are in a good place right now Scotian (career wise)

Yes this is very good news. I just started my engineering career recently at one of the oil sands majors. After 5 years or so I'll have my engineering license and fluent spanish and be priming myself for a Venezuela transition.

I just hope that Syncrude, Suncor and the likes have the balls to transition their business tactics from their ultra-regulated, safety-before-profit, it's-all-about-protecting-the-wildlife pussy mindset, to whatever cut throat methods will be needed in Venezuela/Russia.

Post: #23

Wait until the elections, but now it's a good gamble. When Chavez was alive, a close friend (Colombian) invested in property in the Margarita Islands. Chavez came one day and asked whose property is that, they replied it belonged to a Colombian investor, and he then proceeded accuse Colombian of being spies and scum and finally shouted his trademark "Expropiate!!". And that was it, he lost all the investment. Whoever comes next, tho, won't probably do something like this.

Post: #24

Sorry to bump this old thread, but...

So far nearly every foreigner who went 2012 there to invest some money (and I know lots of them) lost minimum 50% of his investment. Good lesson :-)

Post: #25

Reminds me of all my teammates that "invested" in the Iraqi Dinar when we were there. LOL. Those things will turn to dust in the safe before they gain any value.