First I want to say, as an amateur Futurologist, that the future arrived a few years ago. 2014 specifically. That was the year that science fiction become science fact. Teleportation would just be one quick example off the cuff, but there were many more. It was an astounding year for breakthroughs. But none of them with any meaningful application to society and humanity as a whole. Invisibility cloaks anyone?
This is my hypothesis: the convergence of the aggregate between technology and its application and utility to humanity as a whole, hit its peak in 1978.
1978 was Peak Tech! From there, it's all been downhill in real world terms for most humans on the planet. I can't think of one piece of technology that was invented after this date that has made any difference to humanity as a whole, in real terms. Sure, lots of increments, but increments don't count. Everything we have now was invented pre 1978, and all the advancements we have now are just increments of what was invented back then. That's my argument.
I'll give some examples:
+ The Car.
+ The Motorbike.
+ The Jet plane.
+ The Submarine.
+ The Ship.
+ The Jet Ski.
+ The Bicycle.
+ The Train/Tram.
World changing stuff for all of humanity. Name one advancement since 1978 in this field - transportation. You can't. There have been none. We are still a long way off from the flying car. 200 years I predict until they become commonplace. Jet packs might even exist today and rocket-assisted wing suits. But you won't find Brenda from no.23 utilising one to go grab a loaf of bread from the corner-shop on a lazy Sunday avo.
The Jumbo Jet - 747 was put in to service just a few years before the date of '78. Its impact has never been outdone. Sure, some small incremental steps. But that was pretty much the pinnacle in commercial aviation so far.
What other technology was invented pre 1978 that shook the world and changed all our lives?
+ The Guitar.
+ The Piano.
+ The Drum.
The first two are pretty new inventions, but the third one is probably the oldest invention of all with regard to ALL technology ever invented. It predates the use of the wheel and fire. Man was banging sticks on logs before he could speak. It was language before language. It advanced from a mere 'shit this makes a sound' to higher forms of tribal communication. Not just inter-tribal communication either. It became involved in ritual and I dare say forms of early magic. It bonded people. It spoke the ineffable before Homo sapiens' vocal tracts were ever deployed (apart from 'ugh' maybe).
Terrence McKenna advances a good argument in 'Food of the Gods' that psychadelic mushrooms were also one of the first drivers of human evolution and therefore one of the first and most potent technologies ever discovered. Not invented, mark you. Not all technologies are invented. Some are discovered, fully formed and ready to go.
"The drugs of the future will be much more like computers, the computers of the future will be much more like drugs." - Terence McKenna.
The only difference between computers and drugs is that one is too large to swallow, and our best people are working on that very problem. - Terence McKenna.
Not so far fetched. We are right now making advances in nano-technology where microscopic machines will seek out broken parts in the human machine and fix them. Where does nano-tech end and drugs begin? Where do computers converge on that continuum?
As per magic mushrooms being a food from the gods, McKenna also noticed that when people are in a higher state, language breaks down, and glossolalia takes over: mfdklajjagogjrigjorgtkioeiyjumppphh! Ah ha.
He theorised that before language was 'invented' people in these primitive states would come to invent language itself through the use of glossolalia induced in these trance like states. Plausible. Now that is what I call technology, even if half true!
And even though modern man can now speak, has invented language, and can pursue sophistry to the nth degree, he still reverts to primitive glossolalia when in these 'higher' states, mimicking a time before language was born. There is a sense of 'oneness' with the universe and humanity when in these states. Of knowing what came before and knowing of what is to come. Time breaks down. It traverses both ways. It's silly hippy-dippy bullshit to us now, mang, but back then, hundreds of thousands of years ago? They wouldn't have known what the fuck was going on, but they most certainly would have known that something was up. And genetically and brain wise, I don't think they were that far removed from where we are at today. They just didn't have the tech!
Our ancestors would have been banging sticks and munching mushrooms before they could talk, before they knew what fire was, and at a point where the wheel would have seemed like such space age technology that they would have not have been able to envision a use for it.
And after man had discovered the concept of rhythm with his sticks on his logs, he would have eventually discovered that if you hit someone on the skull with it, it had a quite profound effect. It made people go to sleep. Forever. And warfare was born. See 2001 a Space Odyssey for more info. That's what I call 'chimping out'.
And I do believe they have even found evidence of early man utilising those old skulls as music technology themselves. They would line them up and play them as instruments. Each one providing a different tone and timbre that was new and curious to the primitive ear. [Insert drummer joke here]
So let us add these to the list:
+ Fire
+ The Wheel
Yes, technology advances in increments. Even the disruptive technologies advance in increments. Wheels within wheels. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, so goes the famous quote.
As to both fire and the wheel - arguably two of the most disruptive technologies ever discovered or invented respectively (I'm sure I don't need to expound on why):
There is some debate between anthropologists (in my limited understanding) of when fire was roughly discovered. It was a long time ago for sure. But one thing is certain - humanity evolved and moved forward without it for many a millenia. I am talking about man's ability to create fire of course and harness it for his own use - technology. When he observed lightning strike tinder in the outback he probably just thought the gods were angry, if he even indeed had a concept of god at that point. Was God himself a human invention or discovery? A kind of technology? What about religion?
With regard to the wheel, I'm pretty sure someone has worked out when and where it was invented. But imagine going all those millenia without it. The thing is, the most primitive societies would not have even missed it. It was only when they became sufficiently advanced as a society that they found a need. Necessity is the mother of invention, said someone like Frank Zappa.
We also find ourselves coming full circle with tech as well. The most recent advances (was first discovered half a century ago but was buried as secret technology) in therapy for things like PTSD and alcoholism, utilise things like Psilocybin (magic mushrooms) and MDMA (ecstasy). Reaching parts of the psyche necessary to heal, to advance and to make a real world difference in people's lives. That is what technology is all about. And it's an in your face example of something that is just being buried in front of our noses. Sure, we can do it ourselves, but we risk imprisonment (and bad trips).
If you really want to goof off with Futurology and predictions, tying in past world events from pre-history to the present, then I highly recommend having a look at the Timewave Zero software that McKenna was pushing for a while. It was all supposed to come to an end in 2012. It didn't. That's Futurology for you.
Technology is not just integrated circuits and more advanced versions of fire (see atomic bomb) and the wheel (see cogs and windmills and the rotor). It's stuff that really makes a difference at the most profound levels of our being, our humanity.
So we have the drum, magic mushrooms, language, fire and the wheel.
Top that motherfuckers!
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