(04-07-2017 12:53 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(04-06-2017 02:46 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I will concede that they are all risky, and therefore guys have to figure out their own risk tolerances, their own allocations that may change from time to time and maybe their own tools that they will put in place in order to attempt to deal with their perception of risks and how those perceptions may change with passage of time and happening of events.

Yes of course. There is no need to state the obvious.

Well, apparently, we have a different judgement about whether stating the "obvious" may have been a good idea. If people think differently and if people have different experiences, their conclusions about what is "obvious" and what is "not obvious" are going to be different.

(04-07-2017 12:53 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  Just the way you put it makes it seem like ETH is risky and BTC safe. Which is not true.

Again, that means that we have different opinions about the fundamentals of each of those assets and the level and even the kinds of risk that you are taking. Not all risks are the same, and even perceptions about risks are going to differ.

As I mentioned several times, I believe that ETH has a considerable amount of third-party risk due to the various kinds of centralization that exists with ETH that is different and greater than with BTC. And, we can have different opinions about the degree to which those kinds of risks may exist and the degree to which they differ between the assets.

I also think that frequently people might become misled when either they may not recognize some of the false equivalencies that are made, and really the fact of the matter remains that people are busy and frequently they do not have time to attempt to study various fundamentals of asset classes (and even here, I am not attempting to proclaim that I know everything about each of these asset classes, even though I have come to my own conclusions based on the information that I have)

(04-07-2017 12:53 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  Spreading the risks is problaby the best, even though I'm not sure if it would be good to enter ETH at this price point. It is pointing down on all charts and have just had an ATH.

Largely, it seems that you and I agree on the above points how you phrased it.

And yes there seems to be some danger in entering ETH after it had pumped nearly 5x - even though I would still point out whether we are talking about BTC or ETH or some other crypto, it is really difficult to know the extent, degree and timing to which one price direction is going to happen or the other price direction.

Of course, the smaller the market cap and the less liquid the crypto, the easier that the price can be manipulated and/or overshoot price performance expectations. In other words, no price direction is really obvious until after it happens (even though at certain times and based on context, some price directions might seem to have greater probabilities of going one direction versus the other).

Regarding spreading the risk, there is all kinds of choices that guys can make, and frequently, they will chose not to invest at all in certain asset classes when they are not really clear about the kinds of risks that they impose - whether it is upside potential or downside potential. And, some guys might chose to invest in 10 different cryptos while others might chose 1 or 2 and others will chose to avoid all cryptos.

In other words, even spreading the risk can still end up in various different results, and even considering a point that you have made several times, age can also make a difference in which sometimes younger guys might take more risks than older guys because the fact of the matter is that there can be ways to make up for some of those time factors later on down the road if the risky proposition does not pay off.

Actually, I believe as the crypto space matures, we are going to witness bitcoin, and other crypto companies becoming more bold in their attempts to use various traditional legal institutions to attempt to resolve some of their issues, which seems to be the case with this lawsuit of Bitfinex suing Wells Fargo for the blocking of USDT transactions.


https://www.docdroid.net/jx1WRHX/bitfine...tml#page=2

https://www.law360.com/articles/910505

Maybe it's good that ETH is a bit centralized, perhaps they can move forward, which BTC can't, stuck in the same structure as seven years ago, can't even solve basic problems.


Trying to convince anyone that BTC is a safe buy at $1000+ is just nonsense, and that is exactly what you are trying to say between the lines.

(04-07-2017 04:24 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Maybe it's good that ETH is a bit centralized, perhaps they can move forward, which BTC can't, stuck in the same structure as seven years ago, can't even solve basic problems.

Well, I don't exactly disagree with you that guys could consider greater levels of centralization to be a good thing, and I think some people are stuck in that kind of mindset in which they believe that some levels of centralization and efficiencies of centralization are good things. So, yeah, go ahead and invest in ETH if you believe that it is offering something with considerable present or future potential in part due to some of its greater centralization over bitcoin.

As I keep saying, I don't really give too much of a ratt's ass about ETH - except it comes off as a bit annoying when folks are coming into this thread and to pump ETH as if it were a kind of bitcoin 2.0, and I suppose it is fair enough as long as the topic of these various alts are compared or contrasted to bitcoin, but sometimes they are just pumped and misinformation or incomplete information is given.

Yeah, in some sense, these themes are repeating over and over, but ethereum is not bitcoin and bitcoin is not broken - even though various ones want to come in and to say that bitcoin is broken because it is stagnant because its fundamentals have not changed in 7 years... blah blah blah

The fact of the matter is that bitcoin does not need to change in order to be valuable and continue to provide value. Why does this topic have to be repeated over and over and over? You can find value in one thing or another and decide accordingly about whether, when and how much to invest.

Bitcoin's inability to change is a feature and not a bug. Bitcoins inability to change demonstrates that it is not very centralized and difficult to take over by any small group.

I will also point out that it seems a bit disingenuous to suggest that bitcoin has not changed at all in 7 years and to suggest that it is antiquated because of such. On an ongoing basis, there have been changes to bitcoin's software, and that is why we are at version 14.0, no? bitcoin did not start at version 14.0, did it?

(04-07-2017 04:24 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Trying to convince anyone that BTC is a safe buy at $1000+ is just nonsense, and that is exactly what you are trying to say between the lines.

Again, you are arguing the same bullshit over and over, and continuing to assert that I am here trying to sell guys on what to do.

Guys - do whatever the fuck you want.

I am not trying to sell anything... there are no lines to read in between, unless you just happen to want to create a conspiracy, where none exists.

I am here posting about a topic (called bitcoin), and I am posting about various strategies that I employ or that I think about or that I read about, and if guys want to know about possible BTC related strategies, I am more than wiling to discuss possible strategies with guys, but in the end, each guy has to make up his own mind about what to do, how much to invest (if any), when to invest or whether to wait, and maybe even think about the possibility that bitcoin could go to zero or bitcoin could go to $1million and never return to $1194 (more or less our current price).. there are lot's of possibilities and some possibilities are more likely than others but guys have the right to come up with their own views about what they believe the possibilities to be. I am just giving my own views on that topic on a regular basis, but guys are free to share their own views, if they wish.

If I am selling anything to RVF guys that would be attempts at helping guys to be able to help themselves through various kinds of sharing of BTC information, and guys can come into this thread and post about various bitcoin topics and have different opinions. I don't have any problems with that.

I may or may not respond to the varying opinions that get posted, in part depending on if anyone else has responded or whether I believe that my opinion might be helpful to the circumstance that is described in the post (and that is my discretion to determine whether or what to say, no?)

If there's a hard fork then it will be important to have a wallet that will recognize both coins. That's why I moved from Coinbase to Blockchain.info. Roger Ver is an investor in Blockchain.info and he is pro BU.

Here is what coinbase said about a hard fork:

Quote:We may provide support for Bitcoin Unlimited in the future depending on market conditions and stability of the protocol, but we cannot guarantee whether or when such support may be available. Customers who wish to access both blockchains at the time of the hard fork should withdraw their BTC from Coinbase since we cannot guarantee what will happen during the hard fork or when this access may be available.

https://blog.coinbase.com/update-for-cus...4dea08ac5f

(04-07-2017 04:24 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Trying to convince anyone that BTC is a safe buy at $1000+ is just nonsense, and that is exactly what you are trying to say between the lines.

By the way, if someone comes up to me today, whether it is in this thread or in the real world, and asks me if they should get into bitcoin, I will try to figure out if they want to first. I don't try to sell them.

If someone wants to get into bitcoin, and then have no bitcoin at all, then there is some need to assess their situation first. How much do they want to invest and what are there other investments. If they are not sharing information with you about their circumstances, and they just say that they want to invest, then at that point you might ask them how much would they like to invest and over what period of time and try to figure out their plan.

In any event, I frequently will suggest that guys start out with a kind of dollar cost averaging and spread their investment over a considerable period of time... maybe 6 months to a year, but give me some kind of scenario first, and then we can go from there.. in order to figure out what I am "selling," if anything.

Here's a decent article that describes some of the background of bitcoin unlimited.

Some of it is speculation but it does give a decent sense of where we are at with some of the bitcoin unlimited dynamics and some of the apparent motivations of it.

http://www.coindesk.com/hidden-history-b...unlimited/

The first investor in Snapchat thinks bitcoin could realistically be worth $500,000 by 2030

Quote:Bitcoin has been the top-performing currency in the world in six of the past seven years, climbing from zero to a value of about $1,190.

But the cryptocurrency isn't anywhere close to its potential, according to Jeremy Liew, the first investor in Snapchat, and Blockchain CEO and cofounder Peter Smith. In a presentation sent to Business Insider, the duo laid out their case for why it's reasonable for bitcoin to explode to $500,000 by 2030.

Their argument is based on increased interest in bitcoin, thanks to:

Bitcoin-based remittances

Remittance transfers, or electronic money transfers to foreign countries, have almost doubled over the past 15 years to 0.76% of GDP, data from The World Bank shows.

"Expats sending money home have found in Bitcoin an inexpensive alternative, and we assume that the percentage of Bitcoin-based remittances will sharply increase with greater Bitcoin awareness," the two say.

http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-p...ays-2017-3

(04-08-2017 03:41 PM)Seth_Rose Wrote:  The first investor in Snapchat thinks bitcoin could realistically be worth $500,000 by 2030

Quote:Bitcoin has been the top-performing currency in the world in six of the past seven years, climbing from zero to a value of about $1,190.

But the cryptocurrency isn't anywhere close to its potential, according to Jeremy Liew, the first investor in Snapchat, and Blockchain CEO and cofounder Peter Smith. In a presentation sent to Business Insider, the duo laid out their case for why it's reasonable for bitcoin to explode to $500,000 by 2030.

Their argument is based on increased interest in bitcoin, thanks to:

Bitcoin-based remittances

Remittance transfers, or electronic money transfers to foreign countries, have almost doubled over the past 15 years to 0.76% of GDP, data from The World Bank shows.

"Expats sending money home have found in Bitcoin an inexpensive alternative, and we assume that the percentage of Bitcoin-based remittances will sharply increase with greater Bitcoin awareness," the two say.

http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-p...ays-2017-3

Yes... that article has some decent food for thought, and decently explains the general basis for its conclusions...

2030 is a long way off, but then again, in terms of younger guys making retirement plans, it could be good to stock away 5-10 bitcoins, just in case... again, if guys have a pretty low amount of extra cash flow, many guys could still figure out a way to stack $50 to $100 a month... and that would likely still lead to several bitcoins after a few years... and if the price crashes to lower amounts. I actually recall after I graduated from highschool, in the 1980s.. I was not exactly rich, but I would put aside between $100 and $200 every month - and sure incomes were much much lower back then, and over time, the amounts add up to have a decent investment amount that you can put towards any asset, whether bitcoin or other assets.

(04-07-2017 04:24 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Trying to convince anyone that BTC is a safe buy at $1000+ is just nonsense, and that is exactly what you are trying to say between the lines.

When the price is going up, $1,000 and even $1,000+ is looking pretty good, especially when prices are 20% higher than that and seeming to continue to have decent upwards pressures.

And, as I already suggested several times, once prices decently break through $1,200 (which they just did), then we have very decent odds to be on the way test ATHs - which currently is $1,350.

Merely because I make these predictions do not make them inevitable, but the odds of continued up seem more decent than a reversal, at this point.

So even if I place the odds of up at nearly 60%, there still remains 40% odds of down..

So, another point is that if there are some RVF guys who do not have any coins, and have waiting for below $800 or some other such nonsense - based on the various FUD that has been spread in this thread since $900, they would have been quite happy (at this point) to have bought in, anywhere between $900 and below $1,200 - so there are a lot of prices above $1,000 that would have been satisfying (at this point), too. In other words, sometimes you gotta get some stake in the game, if you do not have any, even if your initial stake might be small amounts... because of price direction uncertainties.

Did you really quote my message THREE TIMES and write more than ONE THOUSAND WORDS???

Well, the last seven days have brought us bitcoin prices in the top 30 all time highs, with the last day at the rank of 13th all time high.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=...sg18526179

Who the fuck knows what is going to happen from here, but the fact that we have not broken further upwards causes me to think that we could experience a bit of a price correction before resuming upwards. 3% would be a relatively minor correction, yet even a 10-15% correction would not be unreasonable - or outside of quasi-normal expectations.

As I type prices are bouncing between $1,201 and $1,210 - and in the past 12 hours we have witnessed prices between $1,200 and $1,220.


Edit: As I had just posted, it appears that we have some dumping going on, and I am a bit unclear about whether $1,200 will be able to hold, so in other words a big dump does kind of look imminent (even though we cannot be sure until the price move happens, and this could be a fake out?)

For status update purposes, maybe a few links could be a good thing, too?


1) I find posts like the one below to be a bit disingenuous. Sure, it is possible that these are actual questions that some one might have, but the questions really seem to be made in such a way that just attempts to spread FUD and to cause more uncertainty about matters than what in reality exists with the poster who is raising these issues.


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...or_over_2/



2) This article points out that we have decent ongoing attention to bitcoin in various parts of south east asia.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bit...east-asia/


3) Here's a github description of the UASF (user activated softfork). Even if such a softfork does not implement between the August 1 and November 15 dates, as outlined, the whole phenomenon can be an interesting way to measure user sentiment and whethe user sentiment is going to either affect the direction of miner sentiment or overall scaling/malleability outcomes.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/mas....mediawiki

(04-09-2017 01:01 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  So, another point is that if there are some RVF guys who do not have any coins, and have waiting for below $800 or some other such nonsense - based on the various FUD that has been spread in this thread since $900, they would have been quite happy (at this point) to have bought in, anywhere between $900 and below $1,200 - so there are a lot of prices above $1,000 that would have been satisfying (at this point), too. In other words, sometimes you gotta get some stake in the game, if you do not have any, even if your initial stake might be small amounts... because of price direction uncertainties.

BTC's trading range last year was $358-993 and this year has been roughly $756-1327. So it's entirely realistic the price may drop below $800 again. It dropped $400 between early and late March. That being said things do look pretty solid over the last 2-3 weeks.

(04-10-2017 02:38 PM)Stun Wrote:  

(04-09-2017 01:01 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  So, another point is that if there are some RVF guys who do not have any coins, and have waiting for below $800 or some other such nonsense - based on the various FUD that has been spread in this thread since $900, they would have been quite happy (at this point) to have bought in, anywhere between $900 and below $1,200 - so there are a lot of prices above $1,000 that would have been satisfying (at this point), too. In other words, sometimes you gotta get some stake in the game, if you do not have any, even if your initial stake might be small amounts... because of price direction uncertainties.

BTC's trading range last year was $358-993 and this year has been roughly $756-1327. So it's entirely realistic the price may drop below $800 again. It dropped $400 between early and late March. That being said things do look pretty solid over the last 2-3 weeks.

Sure. I agree with you that prices can drop at any time, and so therefore anyone who wants to get into bitcoin needs to prepare for either price direction, and part of the thrust of that quoted portion was to consider what would a guy do if he does not have any coins and wants to get into bitcoin.

Guys are going to come to varying conclusions regarding how to approach the matter, but in the end, the guy is going to be responsible for his own decisions about how to invest.

If I just learned about bitcoin, and I wanted to get in, I would likely spread my initial investment over 6 months and then reassess the situation.

Let's say, for example, I have $6k that I want to invest into bitcoin. I would allocate $1,000 per month, and half of that allocation would be dedicated to some form of dollar cost averaging and the other half would be attempts at buying on dips. That is personally how I would approach it, and even if I am not likely to get rich with such an approach, I feel safer than attempting to time matters and maybe chasing the bus, rather than being on the bus.

Therefore, in my hypothetical maybe each week I would have $250 dedicated to bitcoin. Half ($125) I would buy at whatever reasonable price is then available and the other half I would attempt to time or even to stagger some buy orders on the way down (if the price does not go down, then I may end up rolling that dedicated amount into the next week or even the following week or the following week, etc etc).

So yeah, each week would give me $250 to play with and half of it may continue to roll over into subsequent weeks in order to attempt to strategically time. And, sure, I could decide to allocate in different kinds of percentages or to be a bit more or less aggressive.

At the end of the 6 months, I would reassess the situation and whether my views have changed or my finances or my risk profile and where I am at to decide whether to invest more or not, and if so, then how much and what approach to take for the next period of time, if I were to choose to continue.

Anyone feeling it?

Feeling topped out, yet?

Not this cat.

I'm still sticking with my earlier suggestion that getting passed $1,200 is an upwards sign - and likely next resistance point in the mid $1300s, and the price action of the past few days is causing some additional confidence that we are experiencing ongoing decent support at $1,200.. and that we are sufficiently getting past that price point...

You know the saying that previous resistance levels turns into support (once past it)?

(04-07-2017 08:01 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Actually, I believe as the crypto space matures, we are going to witness bitcoin, and other crypto companies becoming more bold in their attempts to use various traditional legal institutions to attempt to resolve some of their issues, which seems to be the case with this lawsuit of Bitfinex suing Wells Fargo for the blocking of USDT transactions.


https://www.docdroid.net/jx1WRHX/bitfine...tml#page=2

https://www.law360.com/articles/910505

This is actually a very big issue, and one that most people simply do not understand if they have been schooled in liberal/libertarian economic theories of money. These theories deny that money is a legal concept, for reasons I will never understand.

Bitcoin is not money. It is at best, similar to say baseball cards or comic books. It is artificially scarce, and there is indeed a market for it, but in the end the "price" is always denominated in sovereign currency.

What makes money special, and why it is universal among advanced civilizations, is that it is a projection of sovereign power. There is a reason that until the United States was founded, virtually all money had either the actual portrait of the ruling sovereign, or some symbol related to the ruling sovereignty. It is the sole means that someone can pay taxes, and it is the only way civil debts can be settled.

To the extent that the civil court system can be used to adjudicate disputes regarding bitcoin, ultimately, the court cannot order anyone to do anything more than pay the judgement in the currency of sovereignty that rules that court.

Without explaining too much, the only reason bitcoin is allowed today is because the world is transitioning to an international monetary system similar to what was proposed at the first conference of the United Nations: Keynes' Bancor. Within the next 10 years, all forex trading will be banned as it was before 1974. All foreign exchange reserves will be replaced with something similar to the Bancor under UN control, and all foreign exchanges will transact only in that currency.

Bitcoin will be allowed for black market transactions, but even then - that is where the block chain comes into play. It is not anonymous, and can be tracked if the authorities so choose.

(04-11-2017 05:17 PM)helmutschmidt31 Wrote:  

(04-07-2017 08:01 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Actually, I believe as the crypto space matures, we are going to witness bitcoin, and other crypto companies becoming more bold in their attempts to use various traditional legal institutions to attempt to resolve some of their issues, which seems to be the case with this lawsuit of Bitfinex suing Wells Fargo for the blocking of USDT transactions.


https://www.docdroid.net/jx1WRHX/bitfine...tml#page=2

https://www.law360.com/articles/910505

This is actually a very big issue, and one that most people simply do not understand if they have been schooled in liberal/libertarian economic theories of money. These theories deny that money is a legal concept, for reasons I will never understand.

Bitcoin is not money. It is at best, similar to say baseball cards or comic books. It is artificially scarce, and there is indeed a market for it, but in the end the "price" is always denominated in sovereign currency.

What makes money special, and why it is universal among advanced civilizations, is that it is a projection of sovereign power. There is a reason that until the United States was founded, virtually all money had either the actual portrait of the ruling sovereign, or some symbol related to the ruling sovereignty. It is the sole means that someone can pay taxes, and it is the only way civil debts can be settled.

To the extent that the civil court system can be used to adjudicate disputes regarding bitcoin, ultimately, the court cannot order anyone to do anything more than pay the judgement in the currency of sovereignty that rules that court.

Without explaining too much, the only reason bitcoin is allowed today is because the world is transitioning to an international monetary system similar to what was proposed at the first conference of the United Nations: Keynes' Bancor. Within the next 10 years, all forex trading will be banned as it was before 1974. All foreign exchange reserves will be replaced with something similar to the Bancor under UN control, and all foreign exchanges will transact only in that currency.

Bitcoin will be allowed for black market transactions, but even then - that is where the block chain comes into play. It is not anonymous, and can be tracked if the authorities so choose.

I remain a bit unclear regarding how these theoretical points apply to our current situation with regard to bitcoin and the Bitfinex lawsuit that is cited in the linked article.

You can talk all the theory that you want and discuss various tensions that exist, but in the end, people and market forces are going to make these kinds of determinations regarding what we call something and whether it is recognized in some jurisdictions and used as "currency" rather than an asset.

Sure, largely, I agree with your point about bitcoin is like baseball cards, but it is not like baseball cards in a lot of ways too, and bitcoin brings a combination of assets to the table that have never been seen previously, and therefore the reactions and the levels of acceptance and the adoption can become anomalous, too.

Currently, when bitcoin is in a kind of infancy stage, you can say all that you want about what it is and what it is not - whether it will live or die - but there is a lot to be seen, yet, regarding how these various bitcoin influences are going to play out in practice, application, toil and varying responses in different jurisdictions, beyond mere theories about what might happen in a speculative sense.. and in the end, does 100 years matter? Maybe at most some of the younger guys here might have 70 years, and sure, there could be offspring, too, but when we are investing (or not) we are deciding on a lot shorter time horizons ( 1 week, 1 month 1 year 10 years), and of course if 1 year seems to have screwed up our theory about the 10 year, we could take actions at that time, rather than waiting for the 10 years to play out, no?

Will JayJuanGee ever write something that is not as long as a masters thesis?

Some things are not rocket science man.

(04-11-2017 05:58 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  Will JayJuanGee ever write something that is not as long as a masters thesis?

Some things are not rocket science man.

Do you have anything to say about bitcoin substance Cattle Rustler? Or perhaps substance is a bit too much for you to attempt to handle?

For example, let us know if you own any bitcoins, or if you are thinking about buying some, selling some or just sitting on the sidelines -waiting for the "perfect" opportunity?

Otherwise, if you have trouble with your own personal experiences, then may you could discuss whether you know anybody (outside of this thread) that owns, accumulates or trades in bitcoins?

If you do happen to attempt a substantive response, I hope that you don't mind (or if you are able), to try not to meander too much from this particular topic in your response, if you are able to muster up any response besides whining about style rather than substance.

(04-11-2017 05:17 PM)helmutschmidt31 Wrote:  

(04-07-2017 08:01 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Actually, I believe as the crypto space matures, we are going to witness bitcoin, and other crypto companies becoming more bold in their attempts to use various traditional legal institutions to attempt to resolve some of their issues, which seems to be the case with this lawsuit of Bitfinex suing Wells Fargo for the blocking of USDT transactions.


https://www.docdroid.net/jx1WRHX/bitfine...tml#page=2

https://www.law360.com/articles/910505

This is actually a very big issue, and one that most people simply do not understand if they have been schooled in liberal/libertarian economic theories of money. These theories deny that money is a legal concept, for reasons I will never understand.

Bitcoin is not money. It is at best, similar to say baseball cards or comic books. It is artificially scarce, and there is indeed a market for it, but in the end the "price" is always denominated in sovereign currency.

What makes money special, and why it is universal among advanced civilizations, is that it is a projection of sovereign power. There is a reason that until the United States was founded, virtually all money had either the actual portrait of the ruling sovereign, or some symbol related to the ruling sovereignty. It is the sole means that someone can pay taxes, and it is the only way civil debts can be settled.

To the extent that the civil court system can be used to adjudicate disputes regarding bitcoin, ultimately, the court cannot order anyone to do anything more than pay the judgement in the currency of sovereignty that rules that court.

Without explaining too much, the only reason bitcoin is allowed today is because the world is transitioning to an international monetary system similar to what was proposed at the first conference of the United Nations: Keynes' Bancor. Within the next 10 years, all forex trading will be banned as it was before 1974. All foreign exchange reserves will be replaced with something similar to the Bancor under UN control, and all foreign exchanges will transact only in that currency.

Bitcoin will be allowed for black market transactions, but even then - that is where the block chain comes into play. It is not anonymous, and can be tracked if the authorities so choose.

This below article may be a bit of a stretch regarding whether it relates to your above post, Helmut.

But the essence of the below article talks about how various cryptos play into the concept of fungibility - and surely a relevant topic regarding the ability of governments or private entities to be able to trace transactions... and Monery and Zcash attempt to offer something a bit different from bitcoin.


http://weuse.cash/2016/06/09/btc-xmr-zcash/

(04-11-2017 06:35 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-11-2017 05:58 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  Will JayJuanGee ever write something that is not as long as a masters thesis?

Some things are not rocket science man.

Do you have anything to say about bitcoin substance Cattle Rustler? Or perhaps substance is a bit too much for you to attempt to handle?

For example, let us know if you own any bitcoins, or if you are thinking about buying some, selling some or just sitting on the sidelines -waiting for the "perfect" opportunity?

Otherwise, if you have trouble with your own personal experiences, then may you could discuss whether you know anybody (outside of this thread) that owns, accumulates or trades in bitcoins?

If you do happen to attempt a substantive response, I hope that you don't mind (or if you are able), to try not to meander too much from this particular topic in your response, if you are able to muster up any response besides whining about style rather than substance.

This deserves a repost

Hello, we'd like to talk to you about Bitcoin!


May we come in?

(04-11-2017 02:52 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Anyone feeling it?

Feeling topped out, yet?

Not this cat.

I'm still sticking with my earlier suggestion that getting passed $1,200 is an upwards sign - and likely next resistance point in the mid $1300s, and the price action of the past few days is causing some additional confidence that we are experiencing ongoing decent support at $1,200.. and that we are sufficiently getting past that price point...

You know the saying that previous resistance levels turns into support (once past it)?

In my opinion the upward momentum is slowing and we're very close to a downwards correction before more solid continuation upwards - I would say that $1100 is reached next before $1300, although I only trade on short time frames and don't trade on such a long term.

Something for intraday trading for me is the VWAP. This plays out a lot on traditional instruments, and also for Bitcoin - but it's important to know when to judge the safe reversible point to the VWAP.

(04-12-2017 04:32 PM)account844 Wrote:  

(04-11-2017 02:52 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Anyone feeling it?

Feeling topped out, yet?

Not this cat.

I'm still sticking with my earlier suggestion that getting passed $1,200 is an upwards sign - and likely next resistance point in the mid $1300s, and the price action of the past few days is causing some additional confidence that we are experiencing ongoing decent support at $1,200.. and that we are sufficiently getting past that price point...

You know the saying that previous resistance levels turns into support (once past it)?

In my opinion the upward momentum is slowing and we're very close to a downwards correction before more solid continuation upwards - I would say that $1100 is reached next before $1300, although I only trade on short time frames and don't trade on such a long term.

Something for intraday trading for me is the VWAP. This plays out a lot on traditional instruments, and also for Bitcoin - but it's important to know when to judge the safe reversible point to the VWAP.

If you look through my post history in this thread, frequently I give some kind of general inclination regarding what I believe to be BTC's price direction - such as recently when I said that once BTC prices break through $1,200 (if it happens in the next couple of weeks, which it did), then we have a decent chance of testing previous all time high price levels - which is $1350 - so maybe I gave my prediction of upwards direction of close to a 60% probability and my prediction of downwards something like a 40% probability - once those conditions were met.

I am all for considering changes in VWAP (volume weighted Average Price). I had to look that up.... hahahahaha., yet there are all kinds of ways to look at those kinds of volume questions (whether you are looking at volume on a daily or weekly or some other timeline measure) in order to attempt to predict whether a reversal might be coming based on consistent volume or changes in volume.

So, yeah, in that regard, sometimes there may be considerable volume pushing BTC prices in one direction or another, and then changes in that trade volume in a short period of time or even a dwindling off of trade volume and movements of the price in one way or another - yet these factors do not necessarily tell us which way BTC prices are going to go without considering from where we came or even some fundamentals about bitcoin - including networking effects, immature technology, s-curve adoption etc.. - but trade volume could help to tell us if the level of the price battle has intensified at that particular price location.. and if the price breaks upwards during an intensified price battle we are likely going to experience a bit more upwards.. the same tends to be true for the opposite..... but sometimes it can be difficult to determine while we are in the beginning of the price battle whether or not a battle is actually occurring or if it is a fake out in one direction or another.

In the end, to me, it seems that none of these factors are conclusive... including our recent break through at $1,200 or even the rise from the lower $900s to the present price (continuing above $1200) - yeah.. we experienced quite a price battle for a bit more than a week while the price quickly went down to below $900 and then for a few days thereafter while the price was on the way back up..

But the return to $1,200 and even the break through at $1,200 was largely accomplished on relatively mediocre trade volume - which causes me to conclude that there is really not any kind of BTC price battle going on at the present moment, and that the price trend is continuing upwards - until such time as the next price battle may commence - which, like I mentioned we cannot necessarily know when we enter it and whether the price is going to break up or down at the commencement of such a price battle.

So, account844, do you have a way in which you like to attempt to play your price direction theories? Do you have a certain amount of BTC that you bet in one direction or another based on your tentative predictions? What are you doing right now? Are you changing your allocations or have you already set yourself up for your tentative prediction?

I personally attempt to prepare for price movements in both directions, and sometimes I will bet a little bit extra on the margins - one way or another based on my sense of things at that moment.

For example, even though I had some screw-ups in my cash flow in the past couple of months, which kind of messed up some of my cash flow and my BTC fund allocations.. in this price range, and within my bitcoin investment funds, I have authorized myself to maintain bitcoin allocations in about the 84% to 94% range - and currently, I am running at about a 91.5% allocation in bitcoins (which means 8.5% cash). Yet, currently, since I feel a bit on the ongoing bullish side, I would not mind approaching the top of my range (like 93% or even 94% - even at the current price) - however, if BTC prices were to dip really quickly, then, at that point, I would have been feeling glad that I did not reallocate with higher levels of bitcoins.

So in the sense that I describe, I really feel like I am only gambling with a few percentage points of my total BTC holdings at any given time, unless for some reason I were to get some kind of change of heart or change of perspective based on some kind of market events or news and I believe that there could be a decent reason to take aggressive actions to reallocate in a direction that differs from my then current thinking.

(04-12-2017 12:45 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(04-11-2017 06:35 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-11-2017 05:58 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  Will JayJuanGee ever write something that is not as long as a masters thesis?

Some things are not rocket science man.

Do you have anything to say about bitcoin substance Cattle Rustler? Or perhaps substance is a bit too much for you to attempt to handle?

For example, let us know if you own any bitcoins, or if you are thinking about buying some, selling some or just sitting on the sidelines -waiting for the "perfect" opportunity?

Otherwise, if you have trouble with your own personal experiences, then may you could discuss whether you know anybody (outside of this thread) that owns, accumulates or trades in bitcoins?

If you do happen to attempt a substantive response, I hope that you don't mind (or if you are able), to try not to meander too much from this particular topic in your response, if you are able to muster up any response besides whining about style rather than substance.

This deserves a repost

Hello, we'd like to talk to you about Bitcoin!


May we come in?

Let me make some Bitcoin discussion for you, Satoshi, so maybe you can begin to understand what is a bitcoin topic.

In the last couple of hours, we have experienced a minor correction (maybe 5% so far), but in the end we have BTC prices going UP.... lets say nearly testing previous ATH in mid-$1,100s - that was in January 2017.

Then BTC prices went DOWN to mid $700s that was in mid January.

and then BTC prices went UP and DOWN and UP again to reach a new ATH of $1,350 (took a couple of months in that last time) - in early March.

then back DOWN - in mid March to $890-ish.

And then BTC prices go UP again.. and into our current state.. the upper $1,100s and the lower $1,200s.

As we reflect, for about 3 weeks, BTC price had been going up from $891 to $1,230 without any significant or meaningful correction. For more than the past 3 days BTC prices had been moving slowly up and largely staying between a $1,200 and $1,230 range...

We should consider that BTC prices cannot stay in this kind of "toppie" range for too long of a period before someone is going to attempt to test the situation - to see how far they can push BTC prices out of the range (if they can) - either UP or DOWN.

In the past few hours, we witnessed the testing of support as DOWN...

But the story is not over. Whether there is going to be more DOWN is still to be determined - or whether we return to UP.. is still to be determined.

As I type, BTC prices are largely bouncing in the upper $1,180s to lower $1,190s----

To be frank, when we get a kind of DOWNward test like this I would not be surprised to see the price goes either way, since so far, the test DOWN has only been about 5% of correction from $1,230 to $1,165,which is almost nothing in bitcoinlandia, but we are only about less than 3 hours into the "test" and if we return back to above $1,210-ish within the next day or so.. then it seems to me that we must be returning on our way UP to test the $1,350 levels...

In other words, for those who want to discuss and consider matters related to bitcoin, the next 24 or more hours are CRITICAL to determine the short-term fate of bitcoin prices!!!