^^ I think the rule of thumb is to not buy at an all-time high unless you are either very bullish, or willing to hold on to your investment for a long period of time.

Anyone thinking that we are topped out (bouncing around in the $1150s as I type)?

Anyone thinking about probabilities of a hardfork anytime soon?

You know that a few weeks ago, when I was predicting less than 20% chance of a hardfork, the Bitfinex trading on the hardfork topic was a bit over 30% in consideration that a hardfork was going to happen ---

Probably, I am even a bit more confident at the moment about my lower number, and maybe even now, I would bring down the odds to less than 15%, at the moment.

Currently, the Bitfinex trading is about 11.5% on the hardfork happening.. So lot's off us can move around with opinion on the topic.... including changes in public sentiment.

I think that some RVF guys were putting greater than 50% odds on a hardfork (or at least seeming to imply those kinds of numbers), but sometimes difficult to get guys to commit to a number (and even myself, sometimes) - for a variety of reasons - including maybe preserving the ability to come back and say "I told you so?"

Don't get me wrong, I am not attempting to be smug at the moment - even though we do have decent ongoing upwards price pressures - and even though there seems to be more evidence that some of the scare of the imminence of a hardfork seems t be lessening.. at least a little bit... even though there are still some hardfork sentiment lingering in the air, at least a little bit.

I am still eyeing to see if we are going to break $1,200 any time soon... so I would not be surprised to experience a significant price correction of 15% to 25% before breaching $1,200... but I also would not be surprised to breach $1,200, either.

Thoughts guys?

What the fk are you talking about? It's been like a week or two since you made some predictions about the hard fork. A bit early to even say the words, "I told you so", in any context.

How about this, I say BTC hardforks within the next 8 months (by the end of the year), and you can say it won't. Let's make it interesting. When you lose you tell everyone what we all want to hear: how many BTC you actually have.

You should talk about the real elephant in the room, how LTC is within 5% of Segwit activation. Kind of ironic it is being adapted on LTC since it was originally developed to solve BTCs scaling concern.

Before you say, it's not relevant break it down for a minute. Segwit, originally developed for BTC is about to get activated on another network. What does this mean for future prospects/risks of BTC?

How do you suggest the scalability issue get solved without a hard fork?

(04-06-2017 12:50 AM)Armogan Wrote:  What the fk are you talking about? It's been like a week or two since you made some predictions about the hard fork. A bit early to even say the words, "I told you so", in any context.

Look at yourself. Getting all worked up over nothing.

Is anyone saying I told you so?

I said what I said which is a kind of current status update, and I think that what I said makes sense... in terms of what is actually going on in bitcoin.

So, it appears that you want to argue, merely for the sake of argument.

(04-06-2017 12:50 AM)Armogan Wrote:  How about this, I say BTC hardforks within the next 8 months (by the end of the year), and you can say it won't. Let's make it interesting.

Hey. I appreciate you being specific about your prediction. That is great. I gotta admire someone who is willing to commit to a prediction that is in a kind of time frame.

I don't say anything about whether something is going to happen or not. I merely say that it has about a 15% chance - or less of happening... I did not put a time frame on my prediction, so maybe I might tweak my prediction a little bit if we are putting a kind of time frame on it.

(04-06-2017 12:50 AM)Armogan Wrote:  When you lose you tell everyone what we all want to hear: how many BTC you actually have.

That is ridiculous.

Who really cares how many BTC I have? Do you really feel good at either DOXing people or engaging in a kind of bet that would have those kinds of terms? It is an unnecessary kind of bet.

There can be other kinds of bets, but I am not really too interested in betting about anything like this. I usually bet with how I allocate my funds.. and that is difficult enough.

In the end, there could be friendly bets that are not so much about how big your dick is, but instead just a bet to put something on the table... for example betting some symbolic amount... but like I said, I am not really into this idea of betting unless it kind of seems like it is being done in a genuine way rather than some kind of bullshit ego crap.

(04-06-2017 12:50 AM)Armogan Wrote:  You should talk about the real elephant in the room, how LTC is within 5% of Segwit activation. Kind of ironic it is being adapted on LTC since it was originally developed to solve BTCs scaling concern.

yes.. the LTC is a very interesting development, and I am not trying to avoid anything that is relevant to BTC, and surely there is some relevance to bitcoin with what is currently going on with LTC.

(04-06-2017 12:50 AM)Armogan Wrote:  Before you say, it's not relevant break it down for a minute. Segwit, originally developed for BTC is about to get activated on another network. What does this mean for future prospects/risks of BTC?

Why do you want to presume what I believe is relevant or not? Discuss whatever the fuck you want, and I am surely capable of providing my comments or feedback if I believe that I have anything that might be possibly useful to add.

I don't think that it is bad for bitcoin to have seg wit activating on litecoin and litecoin serving as a kind of test ground for BTC. Not bad at all. You seem to be framing the situation as a negative, which i believe is far from certain about whether it would be a negative for bitcoin.

(04-06-2017 12:50 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  How do you suggest the scalability issue get solved without a hard fork?

There are hardforks and there are soft forks.

There is also seg wit.

A hardfork is not inevitable, and it is not even in the vision of core at the moment, and I think that they are figuring out ways to avoid hardforking.

I think that there is a lot of discussion in recent times that a softfork could be done for almost any thing. There are ways to accomplish such.

So a hardfork might be a good idea if the matter is nearly 100% not contentious, but if there is any aspect that it is contentious, then a softfork may work better to accomplish whatever are the objectives.

Are you placing pretty high odds on the possibility of a hardfork, too?

Seven years and they didn't figure out a way to soft fork? I think a hardfork is inevitable and I think that it would be better the sooner it get over with, the network have already had spam attacks, right? But of course, if one is only in it for a short time profit, it would be best to delay the hardfork as long as possible, so the price doesn't take a hit.

By the way, I'm doing the Introduction to Digital Currencies course at University of Nicosia. I think it's quite good. On lesson about hardfork and one about alt-coins was particularly good. I can upload the powerpoints if anyone is interested. It's good to read independent well-thought explanations of these subjects. Most people discussing crypto-currencies seems it be thinking about nothing else than short-term profit in terms of dollars.

(04-06-2017 01:04 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  By the way, I'm doing the Introduction to Digital Currencies course at University of Nicosia. I think it's quite good. On lesson about hardfork and one about alt-coins was particularly good. I can upload the powerpoints if anyone is interested. It's good to read independent well-thought explanations of these subjects. Most people discussing crypto-currencies seems it be thinking about nothing else than short-term profit in terms of dollars.

Thanks for the feedback; I was looking at taking the course as well. I'd definitely be interested in seeing the powerpoints.

Excellent article on BTC vs. ETH from Tuur Demeester:

I'm not worried about Bitcoin Unlimited, but I am losing sleep over Ethereum

My portfolio is currently about 80/20 BTC/ETH right now, although I'm considering going to 50/50, at least until Bitcoin gets its shit together. The Ethereum ecosystem just has so much more going for it right now (especially in the near future), while I don't see any short-term solutions to Bitcoin's scaling problem.

I do think Bitcoin will eventually find a way to scale, and it still provides a valuable solution to millions of people around the world looking for an alternative to their shit fiat currencies (Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.). I also don't see the two cryptos as direct competitors; Bitcoin is more immutable store of value while Ethereum is smart contracts and dApps.

There are also a variety of black swan events I could see happening in the short-to-medium term (Eurozone collapse, more banking bail outs/bail ins, Chinese bubbles in debt/real estate/etc., and so on) that would almost certainly provide a boost to crypto as a whole but would primarily benefit Bitcoin given its reputation as an immutable store of value. So I'm still bullish in the long term, but I think for the next few months ETH is more likely to double in price, for example, than BTC.

(04-06-2017 01:23 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  I do think Bitcoin will eventually find a way to scale, and it still provides a valuable solution to millions of people around the world looking for an alternative to their shit fiat currencies (Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.). I also don't see the two cryptos as direct competitors; Bitcoin is more immutable store of value while Ethereum is smart contracts and dApps.

Here is the link, I hope it works: : https://files.fm/u/37nmqr38

There is other problems with bitcoin except the scalability problem that makes it very unpractical to use in daily life right now. But I do believe that cryptos will change the world for the better and especially in the developing countries. But it's still too soon. Fortunately I'm young and will probably have the honor to see this happen during my lifetime.

(04-06-2017 01:04 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Seven years and they didn't figure out a way to soft fork?

Who is they? Bitcoin is decentralized.. Remember that.

Proposals are made and then they get reviewed and then if there is general consensus they get tested.. and then go live.

Bitcoin is also an evolving phenomenon with some old timer contributors but new contributors. I don't claim to know the insides, but I hear that there are all kinds of new considerations, activities and interactions that are based on people learning about bitcoin learning about events in other coins and then making proposals in regards to bitcoin developments that could occur, so long as it seems that the advantages out weigh the disadvantages.

(04-06-2017 01:04 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  I think a hardfork is inevitable and I think that it would be better the sooner it get over with, the network have already had spam attacks, right?

A hardfork is far from inevitable, especially if there are other solutions.

Spam attacks have been going on since the beginning of bitcoin.

Do you think that the spam attacks are an emergency, now?

Do you think that spam attacks would be less if there were a hardfork that were to give more blockchain space for conducting spam attacks?

My understanding is that seg wit would likely create some tools that could assist with spam attack matters, but again, I am far from technical in regards to knowing specifically how seg wit accomplishes some of these kinds of objectives.

(04-06-2017 01:04 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  But of course, if one is only in it for a short time profit, it would be best to delay the hardfork as long as possible, so the price doesn't take a hit.

If we are talking about what is happening or what is likely to happen, that is one thing. If we are talking about what we wished would happen, based on our own considerations, that is another thing. We can go all over the place if we go down the road about wishing one direction or another.

I do appreciate the point, however, that the price would likely change in a different kind of way depending on different outcomes (but sometimes that is not even certain)

(04-06-2017 01:04 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  By the way, I'm doing the Introduction to Digital Currencies course at University of Nicosia. I think it's quite good. On lesson about hardfork and one about alt-coins was particularly good. I can upload the powerpoints if anyone is interested. It's good to read independent well-thought explanations of these subjects. Most people discussing crypto-currencies seems it be thinking about nothing else than short-term profit in terms of dollars.

I'm sure that there are several RVF guys who would be interested in some of that.

(04-06-2017 01:23 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  Excellent article on BTC vs. ETH from Tuur Demeester:

I'm not worried about Bitcoin Unlimited, but I am losing sleep over Ethereum

My portfolio is currently about 80/20 BTC/ETH right now, although I'm considering going to 50/50, at least until Bitcoin gets its shit together. The Ethereum ecosystem just has so much more going for it right now (especially in the near future), while I don't see any short-term solutions to Bitcoin's scaling problem.

I do think Bitcoin will eventually find a way to scale, and it still provides a valuable solution to millions of people around the world looking for an alternative to their shit fiat currencies (Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.). I also don't see the two cryptos as direct competitors; Bitcoin is more immutable store of value while Ethereum is smart contracts and dApps.

There are also a variety of black swan events I could see happening in the short-to-medium term (Eurozone collapse, more banking bail outs/bail ins, Chinese bubbles in debt/real estate/etc., and so on) that would almost certainly provide a boost to crypto as a whole but would primarily benefit Bitcoin given its reputation as an immutable store of value. So I'm still bullish in the long term, but I think for the next few months ETH is more likely to double in price, for example, than BTC.

Your reallocation towards ETH seems a bit risky, but hey, in the end, you gotta do what is comfortable for you.

(04-06-2017 02:17 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Who is they? Bitcoin is decentralized.. Remember that.

Anyone

(04-06-2017 02:17 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Spam attacks have been going on since the beginning of bitcoin.

Really? I'm quite confident that you are misinformed.

(04-06-2017 02:17 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Do you think that the spam attacks are an emergency, now?

I never said it was an emergency, but it is a serious problem, isn't?

(04-06-2017 02:17 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Do you think that spam attacks would be less if there were a hardfork that were to give more blockchain space for conducting spam attacks?

My understanding is that seg wit would likely create some tools that could assist with spam attack matters, but again, I am far from technical in regards to knowing specifically how seg wit accomplishes some of these kinds of objectives.

If it can't be stopped it will become a whole lot more expensive.

(04-06-2017 02:17 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I do appreciate the point, however, that the price would likely change in a different kind of way depending on different outcomes (but sometimes that is not even certain)

Well, yeah?

(04-06-2017 02:21 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Your reallocation towards ETH seems a bit risky, but hey, in the end, you gotta do what is comfortable for you.

So bitcoin is not risky? Or at least ETH is more risky than bitcoin??

(04-06-2017 02:29 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(04-06-2017 02:21 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Your reallocation towards ETH seems a bit risky, but hey, in the end, you gotta do what is comfortable for you.

So bitcoin is not risky? Or at least ETH is more risky than bitcoin??

I will concede that they are all risky, and therefore guys have to figure out their own risk tolerances, their own allocations that may change from time to time and maybe their own tools that they will put in place in order to attempt to deal with their perception of risks and how those perceptions may change with passage of time and happening of events.

Here are a few bullish links to possibly make some guys understand a little better regarding why we are continuing to experience upwards price pressures in spite of various proclamation about bitcoin's imminent death... hahahahaha

From yesterday:
Major Japanese retailers to embrace bitcoin payments
https://www.rt.com/business/383592-japan...-payments/

From yesterday:
Kim Dotcom announces new Bitcoin venture for content uploaders to earn money
http://in.reuters.com/article/newzealand...NKBN17707N


Regarding segwit and BU from about 2 weeks ago:

Why Bitcoin doesn’t need a solution
https:[email protected]/why-bitcoin-d...91d403c569


To me, it seems like currently (as I type floating in the upper $1,180s), we are pushing on $1,200 pretty strongly... and still a bit more bullish than even I expected.

Satoshi... I just accidentally bought some coins at $1,190...


You know that sometimes we get so excited in the heat of the moment, we don't even realize what we are doing.

One of my sell orders executed at about $1,189, and then I went to set a buy order at about $1,161 - however, I accidentally bought at $1,190 rather than at $1,161 - oh well, it does not really seem to be a major problem at the moment to make up for those transaction fees and to sell the ones that I bought at $1204 or $1209... Let's see? I am feeling a bit like this $1,200 thingie majiggie is coming pretty close to being a "done deal".. - even though it has not quite happened yet... but that may be a bit too optimistic, no?

(04-06-2017 04:04 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Satoshi... I just accidentally bought some coins at $1,190...

You know that sometimes we get so excited in the heat of the moment, we don't even realize what we are doing.

Obviously the mantra is buy low, sell high and vice versa.. but if you are in it for the long term, don't worry about entries based on 1 or 5 minute charts. I first mined BTC in 2011, and bought 100 BTC in 2012 after i witnessed high volatility of the price bouncing from $10 - $16 if i remember rightly, and back down to $10 again. It was at that point i worked with MtGox.

~7+ years previously I had gained trading experience on all major assets - stocks (NYSE + NASDAQ), futures (CL, FDAX), currencies. The beauty of Gox was that the moves were all clean and predictable - mostly human traders and not algos. And during the big lagging sell off periods, I knew from experience in traditional markets, to put in buy orders some % below, wait 2 minutes to get filled, and be able to sell and scalp out good profits shortly after.

What happens now isn't like Gox to exploit, but the signs are still there if you know what you're doing.

(04-06-2017 05:22 PM)account844 Wrote:  

(04-06-2017 04:04 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Satoshi... I just accidentally bought some coins at $1,190...

You know that sometimes we get so excited in the heat of the moment, we don't even realize what we are doing.

Obviously the mantra is buy low, sell high and vice versa.. but if you are in it for the long term, don't worry about entries based on 1 or 5 minute charts. I first mined BTC in 2011, and bought 100 BTC in 2012 after i witnessed high volatility of the price bouncing from $10 - $16 if i remember rightly, and back down to $10 again. It was at that point i worked with MtGox.

~7+ years previously I had gained trading experience on all major assets - stocks (NYSE + NASDAQ), futures (CL, FDAX), currencies. The beauty of Gox was that the moves were all clean and predictable - mostly human traders and not algos. And during the big lagging sell off periods, I knew from experience in traditional markets, to put in buy orders some % below, wait 2 minutes to get filled, and be able to sell and scalp out good profits shortly after.

What happens now isn't like Gox to exploit, but the signs are still there if you know what you're doing.

I was mostly attempting to make fun of the fact that a couple of months ago, after the price corrected to below $1000, Satoshi was making fun of guys who may have bought above $1,000 and above the then price.

My point has frequently been that I sell on the way up and buy on the way down, so even if I happened to buy at a higher price than the current price, my purchase at the higher price was done from proceeds from even higher sales prices (so I am still buying lower than I sold and selling higher than I bought, for the most part).

And, my other point, was that trading mistakes happen sometimes, too - sometimes based on emotion, but sometimes based on inadvertence.

Guys... I am going to become even more annoying if we sufficiently break through $1200, if that is possible?

Accordingly, I am saying that if we break through $1200 and it looks like it is a fairly solid break through (rather than just teetering around that price point as we are at this time), then I am saying that we have decent chances to be heading into the previous ATH territories of $1,350-ish.


Now, for those of you who might want to wager (maybe Armogan or some others?), I am currently considering about a 58.36187% chance that we are breaking through $1,200 in the coming couple of days.

Thereafter, if we actually do sufficiently break through $1,200, then I would place the odds at about 56.8113722% that we are going to get to $1,350 within the next two months.

Sure there are upsides and there are downsides and the passage of certain events are going to change my view, but as I type, that's what I got in my current thinking.

Again, I find this quite exciting, because current BTC price performance is a bit more bullish than even my most rosey of previous considerations - so for me, it is all icing on the cake in our current place.

(04-06-2017 08:45 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Now, for those of you who might want to wager (maybe Armogan or some others?), I am currently considering about a 58.36187% chance that we are breaking through $1,200 in the coming couple of days.

Do you even lift brah?

I'll wager you that BTC forks in the next 8 months (end of the year). When you lose you tell us how many computer coins you have.

Honestly, I don't understand how you write basically meaningless reverse-FUD day in and day out. BTC had a great day up 10% or so. But this is cryptocurrency, swings of 20-40% really are not that uncommon.

Just 3 weeks ago BTC was $1270 and also a low of $890. These fluctuations are normal. It could go $1250-$1300 next couple of days then drop down to $1100. It's called Brownian Motion, its basically part of the game. Let's see if things can continue to rally past $1,400 that would be really interesting. You'll probably employ that strategy you always keeping talking about (buy high sell low).

(04-06-2017 09:55 PM)Armogan Wrote:  

(04-06-2017 08:45 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Now, for those of you who might want to wager (maybe Armogan or some others?), I am currently considering about a 58.36187% chance that we are breaking through $1,200 in the coming couple of days.

Do you even lift brah?

I'll wager you that BTC forks in the next 8 months (end of the year). When you lose you tell us how many computer coins you have.

I already characterized this as an unnecessary nonsense attempt at the doxxing of bitcoin holdings.

(04-06-2017 09:55 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Honestly, I don't understand how you write basically meaningless reverse-FUD day in and day out.

Recently, I've been thinking that I am engaging in a kind of charity to provide bitcoin info to RVFers.

(04-06-2017 09:55 PM)Armogan Wrote:  BTC had a great day up 10% or so. But this is cryptocurrency, swings of 20-40% really are not that uncommon.

Dare I say, you might be missing the big picture.

We are in a humongous cup and handle - with potential.

I don't call these kinds of price directions with any kind of conclusory commitments to my predictions, but we are in good times, currently.

If you have not read about the situation in some of my earlier posts, but we have been in considerably steady upwards area of bitcoin's prices.. we have daily weighted averages that are in currently teetering in top 20 arena, with today's price at number 18.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=...sg18487998

These are not ordinary cyclical times and bitcoin is a paradigm changing technology.. there ain't nothing like it. name something.. go ahead... I am waiting.

Furthermore 46 out of the past 50 days were in 2017.. these are not ordinary cyclical price movements.

Sure we could have a correction, but we have a seemingly historically unprecedence of a high plateau in BTC prices... will it break up or will it break down.. ??? I am currently thinking that odds of breaking up by15% are slightly greater than the odds of breaking down by 15%.. but I am personally prepared for either direction.

(04-06-2017 09:55 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Just 3 weeks ago BTC was $1270 and also a low of $890. These fluctuations are normal.

NOPE...

Not normal. If you really look at it, we are not in any kind of normal phase. You can say that it is "normal" until you are blue in the face, and I am not going to agree, largely for the reasons that I already stated.

(04-06-2017 09:55 PM)Armogan Wrote:  It could go $1250-$1300 next couple of days then drop down to $1100. It's called Brownian Motion, its basically part of the game. Let's see if things can continue to rally past $1,400 that would be really interesting.

Actually, I agree with this last portion, even though I could give a ratt's ass about any kind of Brownian.

I consider that chances are that bitcoin is in a kind of s-curve adoption phase, and therefore, you cannot really measure its performance with any kind of precision, as if it were some kind of quasi-mature and normal market. In that regard, back to the unique goods aspect of bitcoin... which brings both mystery and difficulties in predicting how far and fast prices can go one direction or another.

Two russian supermodels, with sandpaper.

Do you even deadlift brah?

(04-06-2017 10:35 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Two russian supermodels, with sandpaper.

Do you even deadlift brah?

There you go, again.

When I thought that maybe, just maybe, you may have been able to focus sufficiently on substance, yet you seem to have a bit of A.D.D in terms of devolving into nonsense.

Don't get me wrong. I would appreciate a 10% or even a close to 20% correction, but my portfolio is always better when going up.. but in the past month and a half or so, I had a few allocation issues, so I would not mind having a bit of a decent dip in order to be able to engage in some further reallocations.

No matter what, we are still in a great place, as I type (maybe bouncing between $1,175 and $1,195 - and some teasing regarding a possible dip????)

Big words, from a big boy.

(04-06-2017 02:46 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I will concede that they are all risky, and therefore guys have to figure out their own risk tolerances, their own allocations that may change from time to time and maybe their own tools that they will put in place in order to attempt to deal with their perception of risks and how those perceptions may change with passage of time and happening of events.

Yes of course. There is no need to state the obvious. Just the way you put it makes it seem like ETH is risky and BTC safe. Which is not true. Spreading the risks is problaby the best, even though I'm not sure if it would be good to enter ETH at this price point. It is pointing down on all charts and have just had an ATH.