Post: #151

(03-03-2017 02:56 PM)911 Wrote:  One new poll has Macron 1st, ahead of le Pen, and gap widening. Not sure how much you can trust it.

That must be a joke. How can the anti-EU candidate could lose support when the EU hits her with a ridiculous technicality and the other anti-Immigration candidate is in a slump

Post: #152

https://www.fillon2017.fr/

Fillon has a big rally planned this afternoon. If it goes well, then it might be a good time for the gamblers amongst us to hedge your bets.

Post: #153

How does that work, Simian, do you sell back some of your stake? i know about hedging in finance, but I'm a noob at regular betting...

I have friends who are going to be at this rally, conservatives who like his traditional pro-family Catholic values. If he doesn't make it, they'll definitely vote for Marine in the 2nd round vs the globalist tool.

Post: #154

(03-04-2017 08:15 PM)911 Wrote:  How does that work, Simian, do you sell back some of your stake? i know about hedging in finance, but I'm a noob at regular betting...

I have friends who are going to be at this rally, conservatives who like his traditional pro-family Catholic values. If he doesn't make it, they'll definitely vote for Marine in the 2nd round vs the globalist tool.

I use betfair, which allows you to 'lay'/bet against an outcome. If you've already bet for an outcome, laying gets money out.

I made hundreds betting on Newt Gingrich for VP at 1/50, and laying when he was at 1/2

[aside from my gambling loss] This persecution of Fillion might actually be a good thing as it'll drive all those Fillion supporters frustrated with the establishment and the globalists to vote for Le Pen in the second round.

I no longer can rule out a Le Pen victory. It's not worth betting for her at 1/5, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Boy Wonder's backers end up rueing pushing out moderate Fillion.

Post: #155

Regardless of who wins, France is on a set path to destruction, culturally, economically and demographically.

Post: #156

Anyone know how the rally went?

Post: #157

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39171798

Seems big, and nothing controversial happened. It'll be hard to replace him. His wife had an interview the same day, which shows they are prepared to defend.

His conservative rival Juppe is 1/5 to win, very unlikely what with his own fake employment scandal in the past. I'd say it a safe bet, as many of Fillon's supporters would defect to Le Pen and Macron hastn't even got started on him.

Fillon is still at 15/1, Someone is poring tens of thousands of dollars against him at 15/1.(politically motivated?) Those are incredible odds after today's success, but I've exceeded what I feel comfortable putting down on one guy.

Post: #158

I retract my previous statement about Le Pen.

Fillion, I believe, is the candidate who is going to benefit from this chaos because Le Pen is going to get derailed. They will cut a deal to push her out.

Post: #159

Well now...this is going to be interesting. "60 Minutes" is doing a segment on Marine Le Pen tonight. Guess who interviewed her? Hint: Someone from Very Fake News CNN.

Post: #160

(03-05-2017 11:29 AM)lightning_jack Wrote:  Anyone know how the rally went?

It went pretty well, 100,000+ people despite the bad weather. Friend
who went said he had trouble getting through the metro at the event.





MSM and authorities lowballed it at 40,000. There were a few hundred antifas
types and their hippie parents counter-protesting, so some MSM outlets are
spinning it as "Protests for and against Fillon".

Juppé is going to have a presser tomorrow morning, he would be the one
to replace Fillon if he's forced to quit. The huge drop in Fillon odds might be
a reflection that a decision has been made by the party to oust him,
but nothing certain yet.

I agree that if Fillon is strong-armed by his party, more of his voters
will turn to anti-establishment candidate le Pen, just like some Berners
dumped Hillary and went for Trump after he got jacked by the DNC.

Post: #161

Great post 911,

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france...SKBN16C0G5

Quote:France's conservatives appeared to be at war with themselves less than 50 days from the presidential election as Francois Fillon clung on to his struggling, scandal-tainted campaign and senior party members fought to oust him as their candidate.

In a drama-filled day, Fillon delivered a defiant speech to thousands of grassroots supporters in central Paris on Sunday, telling them that they would not be robbed of victory.

But pressure mounted for him to stand aside, and yet another poll showed him on course to be knocked out of the election in the April 23 first round, leaving centrist Emmanuel Macron favourite to win a May 7 run-off against far-right leader Marine Le Pen.

Once the frontrunner, Fillon is mired in a scandal over hundreds of thousands of euros of public money he paid his wife to be his parliamentary assistant. He denies allegations she did little work for the money, but suffered a serious blow last week when he learned he could be placed under formal investigation for misuse of public funds.

Speaking on France 2 television's evening news, Fillon was asked directly whether he would stand down.

"The answer is no," he said. "I see no reason to do that. It would lead to a dead end for my political family."

He added, though, that he was open to discussions. "I am not autistic. I want to convince my friends that my programme is the only one that can bring about recovery for the country."

Leaders of his party, The Republicans, are preparing for a meeting on Monday evening to discuss the crisis ahead of a March 17 deadline when all candidates must be formally endorsed by at least 500 elected officials. Fillon said he would be present.

After a string of resignations among advisers and backers, the 63-year-old had been banking on a big turnout at the Paris rally to show his detractors that he remains their best hope to win the presidency.

While hailing the support of thousands of tricolour-waving backers who braved pouring rain and chanted for him to stay, he also acknowledged the obstacles facing him.

"I am attacked from all sides and with all consciousness I must listen to you, listen to this massive crowd that pushes me forward, but I must also ask myself about those who doubt me and jump ship," he said.

His party appears divided, with some heavyweights attending the rally and others looking for an alternative.

Christian Estrosi, Valerie Pecresse and Xavier Bertrand, who run three of the country's largest regions, will meet Fillon on Monday to try to find solutions, Estrosi said, naming ex prime minister Alain Juppe as the best replacement.

Jean-Christophe Lagarde, head of the centre-right UDI party, which has an alliance with The Republicans, said Fillon would lead to "certain failure" and called for Juppe to take over.


Minutes after Fillon's TV appearance, Juppe said on Twitter he would make a statement to the press on Monday morning. He has previously said he would not run against Fillon's will.

L'Obs magazine, citing sources close to Juppe, said he planned to say that he would not stand for president, irrespective of what Fillon decided. It was not possible to confirm the report.

This is good news for those who see Le Pen as too socialist or think she'll be destroyed by petit Macron. Juppe is pretty much a globalist.

Then again, Fillon's reference to his "programme" may suggest he might accept step down if someone more popular offered to carry his torch. Could be an upset for us gamblers.

*edit*
My French sucks, but here is the original language version http://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/fra...82527.html

Post: #162

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-president...54003.html

Juppe is out, though he doesn't endorse Fillon.

Post: #163

Saw on tv today:
Hollande: Objective is to stop Le Pen to go into the Elyseum.

That's what I would call a scorched earth tactic.

Post: #164

Hmm so Juppe is out and odds checker has Fillon at 6:1...worth a punt in anyone's opinion?

Post: #165

He was at 15 to 1 earlier this weekend, that was obviously a great buy. I think he's still a bit underrated at 6 to 1, 4 to 1 would be more realistic. There is grassroot support for him among the conservatives in France.

So the turnout was pretty huge yesterday, closer to 200,000, and Fillon's defiance has influenced Juppé's decision to turn down the bid to replace him.

Good coverage by TV Libertés, an independent nationalist conservative media outlet:

Post: #166

I want to be proven wrong, but Fillon is toast in my opinion. He lacks Sarkozy's charisma, despite being a better politician overall.

Macron will win the Presidency.

The French media and pollsters are less biased than their American counterparts. I can't imagine they will be off by anything more than 5% in a two-horse race and presently Macron is favored to beat Le Pen in a direct contest around 60%-40%.

Post: #167

(03-06-2017 10:26 AM)lightning_jack Wrote:  Hmm so Juppe is out and odds checker has Fillon at 6:1...worth a punt in anyone's opinion?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france...SKBN16D2CA

He's got the full support of his party now, so he is worth 1/6, a lot can change in 48 days.

I would not go any lower though. Macron is too strong.

Post: #168

(03-06-2017 02:36 PM)david.garrett84 Wrote:  I want to be proven wrong, but Fillon is toast in my opinion. He lacks Sarkozy's charisma, despite being a better politician overall.

Macron will win the Presidency.

The French media and pollsters are less biased than their American counterparts. I can't imagine they will be off by anything more than 5% in a two-horse race and presently Macron is favored to beat Le Pen in a direct contest around 60%-40%.

-The le Pen French public stigma factor is much bigger than for Trump in the US. A lot of people will not admit being FN voters to pollsters, Bradley Effect is in full play.

-French posters will confirm that their media is just as heavily cucked. However the difference with the US might be that the alt-news in France aren't yet as developed as they are in the US. No Infowars yet. Guys like Soral are heavily repressed, he's had to pay hundreds of thousands of Euros in fines for thought crimes, and they've arrested Dieudonné after Charlie Hebdo.

-the French voting system is much less compromised as in the US, no Diebold machines or boxfulls of missing ballots there (yet).

-Macron is going to be under some attack. In addition to being a closet homo with dubious backers, he's cheated on his taxes, having earned millions but declared a tiny asset portfolio. In France, citizens with assets in excess of a million are subject to a wealth tax, so that would be a big deal. The problem is, the media are 100% behind Macron, they are all run or owned by globalists.

Post: #169

The only thing that matters is getting Fillon through in to the second round. Macron must be stopped from progressing in to the second round against Le Pen. It either has to be Le Pen vs Fillon, or Fillon vs Macron. A Le Pen presidency would be great. A Fillon presidency would be good, as long as he sticks to his word. A Macron presidency would be awful.

Although, as Foolsgo1d said, France is fucked anyway. They've had the cushy southern european lifestyle for too long, with early retirement and long holidays. You can't combine that with a standard of living comparable to Anglosphere countries.

Post: #170

(03-06-2017 03:41 PM)911 Wrote:  

(03-06-2017 02:36 PM)david.garrett84 Wrote:  I want to be proven wrong, but Fillon is toast in my opinion. He lacks Sarkozy's charisma, despite being a better politician overall.

Macron will win the Presidency.

The French media and pollsters are less biased than their American counterparts. I can't imagine they will be off by anything more than 5% in a two-horse race and presently Macron is favored to beat Le Pen in a direct contest around 60%-40%.

-The le Pen French public stigma factor is much bigger than for Trump in the US. A lot of people will not admit being FN voters to pollsters, Bradley Effect is in full play.

-French posters will confirm that their media is just as heavily cucked. However the difference with the US might be that the alt-news in France aren't yet as developed as they are in the US. No Infowars yet. Guys like Soral are heavily repressed, he's had to pay hundreds of thousands of Euros in fines for thought crimes, and they've arrested Dieudonné after Charlie Hebdo.

-the French voting system is much less compromised as in the US, no Diebold machines or boxfulls of missing ballots there (yet).

-Macron is going to be under some attack. In addition to being a closet homo with dubious backers, he's cheated on his taxes, having earned millions but declared a tiny asset portfolio. In France, citizens with assets in excess of a million are subject to a wealth tax, so that would be a big deal. The problem is, the media are 100% behind Macron, they are all run or owned by globalists.

The question is, who are the shy FN supporters saying they are supporting in the polls? I guess it'd normally be Fillon, but he's been demonised too, so that cannot be assumed.

You are right, Macron is ripe for a scandal, but France lacks a free press. Fingers crossed the Republican aligned outlets start supporting Fillon now that the uncertainty about his nomination is over.

(03-06-2017 04:39 PM)britchard Wrote:  The only thing that matters is getting Fillon through in to the second round. Macron must be stopped from progressing in to the second round against Le Pen. It either has to be Le Pen vs Fillon, or Fillon vs Macron. A Le Pen presidency would be great. A Fillon presidency would be good, as long as he sticks to his word. A Macron presidency would be awful.

Agreed. I like Le Pen's immigration/EU policy, but she's too far-left economically. I guess the best case scenario for France would be for Fillon to offer an EU referendum if he was running off against Marine.

Post: #171

Don't dismiss le Pen economically, she's the only candidate that dared talk about busting the 1973 law privatizing the Banque de France (third rail, she's way ahead of Trump there!), she's pushing for the return of the Franc, and she will protect national industry. That's one hell of an economic platform.

Fillon is more of a grey zone economically, pretty good overall, but short of the bold measures above. His strength IMO is being a social conservative, he's going to stop the cultural marxist agenda (gender studies, gay adoptions, sex ed for toddlers etc), and that's a great thing. He's not a fake, genuinely old school conservative Catholic, which is why he's getting all this flack. He's second best on immigration, clearly not as good as MLP, but better than all the other lefto-globalist cuck candidates.

Fillon has the best foreign policy for France, just as good as le Pen, and not as friendly with the neocons as Sarkozy was.

(03-06-2017 04:39 PM)britchard Wrote:  The only thing that matters is getting Fillon through in to the second round. Macron must be stopped from progressing in to the second round against Le Pen. It either has to be Le Pen vs Fillon, or Fillon vs Macron. A Le Pen presidency would be great. A Fillon presidency would be good, as long as he sticks to his word. A Macron presidency would be awful.

Although, as Foolsgo1d said, France is fucked anyway. They've had the cushy southern european lifestyle for too long, with early retirement and long holidays. You can't combine that with a standard of living comparable to Anglosphere countries.

France is not quite like Greece that way, people in the private sector get stuff done, with a decent industrial/tech sector (think Airbus). The public sector and anti-business socialist regulations have been dragging the country down. The current government is neo-liberal and socialist, combining the worst of both worlds.

Britch, you're right about le Pen being too socialist, but overall her radical economic nationalism trumps this.

Post: #172

A Macron win would be game over.

A 5 year Presidency with no recourse is long enough to move things in the globalists direction and combined with Sweden, Germany, Greece and Italy you have the core and outlying Western European states going full suicide.

Macron is as bought as they come. His resume speaks government and banker. He has backers he has known all his adult life and who are the ones behind the banks? Why the globalists ofcourse!

America might be saved but it will not save Europe.

It will be very exciting if either Macron or Le Pen gets in. Not in a good way for both but in a "stay tuned and watch this shit go down" sort of way.

Post: #173

(03-06-2017 06:08 PM)911 Wrote:  Don't dismiss le Pen economically, she's the only candidate that dared talk about busting the 1973 law privatizing the Banque de France (third rail, she's way ahead of Trump there!), she's pushing for the return of the Franc, and she will protect national industry. That's one hell of an economic platform.

Okay, I see what you mean now, it's just talk of price-controls got me spooked.


By the way, what effect do you all think the two other socialists will have on the race? Hamon and Melenchon. The two of them combined have a similar share of the vote to Macron. Macron lacks any real manifesto to judge him on, but if he aligns leftwards, I think it'll be hard for even an united patriot vote to stop him.

Post: #174

Mélenchon is there to take away blue collar votes from le Pen on the left, packaging himself as anti-establishment. He's a classic Grand Orient freemason, a lodge whose ideology has been at the core of the French revolutionary movement for the past two and a half centuries, well before Marx or Trotsky (who also were masons). So basically Mélenchon is a globalist who is doing his part for the "grand project".

Hamon is a softer version of this, and a slightly redder and slightly less establishment version of Hollande. One idea he's floated is the universal basic income.

The two are playing a game a chicken, knowing that neither can make it to the runoff, but that either could have a chance if the other quit in his favor. I think Mélenchon is not going to blink, he's more charismatic, runs his own party while Hamon could get replaced, and he's kind of happy playing his role and doing what he does best, bitching from the left about the system, while being part of it.

Macron is pretending to be leftist, but he's basically a banker tool, so he has limited pull beyond SJW crap that some younger voter will fall for. He's going to appeal to politically naive middle of the road voters who perceive le Pen as unstable and Fillon as crooked. The problem is that this segment might be big enough to put him through in a runoff with le Pen, especially with the media in his pocket.

Post: #175

Only thing that matters is if le Pen is able to end the EU/Euro by pulling France out. She is by far the best choice and is the only person who would 100% end the EU/Euro by pulling France out.

It's shocking Hollande declared his 'ultimate duty' to prevent le Pen from winning. Who is his 'ultimate duty' to? The globalists I would answer definitely not the people of France.