Post: #51

(02-14-2017 02:38 PM)debeguiled Wrote:  

That was both quite interesting and scary. I had no idea there were so many dams in the US, nor that so few of them are being properly maintained. It's horrifying how bad the US is about maintaining infrastructure. The magnitude of the problem, which goes far beyond just the dams, is hard to really grasp.

(02-14-2017 04:40 PM)Silver_Tube Wrote:  I have family in Oroville, not even kidding.

They were forced to evacuate on sunday, only given 30 minutes notice. They are worried that all their valuables will be looted by the time they return, or worse, under water.

That sucks, man. I hope everything turns out alright.

Post: #52

Yeah. We have been hearing about crumbling infrastructure for years, and yet no major disasters except for the levees during Katrina, where the focus was on the hurricane, so people just put it out of their minds.

Unless people get behind Trump on rebuilding and repairing, this is just the beginning. And even if he had full support, there just might not be the money for it.

Post: #53

(02-14-2017 09:27 AM)Thersites Wrote:  

(02-14-2017 03:10 AM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  We have money to send illegals to college at in-state tuition costs, but we can't keep Trump voters (this is a Red County) from getting their homes and businesses destroyed.

The cynic in me that believes in the worst that humanity has to offer, see the lack of proper maintenance as end goal by someone in state government. Best way to punish those Trump voters is causing a massive man made disaster.

Sounds like a baseless and irrational conspiracy theory.

The votes were tallied in November. I seriously doubt that the spillways on this dam could've failed in less than 60 calendar days. This is the culmination of years of governmental incompetence and misallocation of public funds.

Post: #54

(02-14-2017 06:06 PM)Goldin Boy Wrote:  Sounds like a baseless and irrational conspiracy theory.

The votes were tallied in November. I seriously doubt that the spillways on this dam could've failed in less than 60 calendar days. This is the culmination of years of governmental incompetence and misallocation of public funds.

My comment is baseless and irrational conspiracy theory. I'm entertain an irrational viewpoint of this disaster since we live in a time where most leftist are irrational lunatics that would love to commit such action. I know rational that the dam's problems is results of years of neglect via vampires in Sacramento sucking up any money for dam for themselves. I hoping for the best that damage is control in the next couple of days. I don't want to hear MSM spin this mess on Trump.

Post: #55

Evacuation order lifted, looks like the alert level has dropped a notch or two, good news.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/14/us/califor...y-failure/

Post: #56

The more I see the more I think this whole mess stinks like shit. This thing is in danger of collapsing and what are they doing? They have a couple earthmovers and rock trucks with a few helos flying support. If the emergency spillway goes, there will be BILLIONS of dollars of damage and as of yet unmeasurable ecological impact (think of the farms downstream). Where is the urgency? Why are they not grabbing every yellow piece of equipment for 50 miles and dumping rip rap all over the place? Not to diminish what the guys on the ground are doing but the scale of their effort thus far does not mesh with either the severity of the mishap or its probability of happening. Either they think there is no danger of any further uncontrolled runoff (previous 48 hrs rules that out), or they know its only a matter of time until it fails and they are triaging.

With the evacuation order lifted it seems they are in a holding pattern until the rains hit so they gave people a chance to go in and get anything they dont want destroyed. Doing some rough math, even 3" of rain over the entire 3600 sq mi watershed would be 575,000 acre ft of water which is about 1/6 of the entire reservoir's capacity. The good news is that the main spillway erosion appears to have stabilized IVO the transmission towers for the time being @ 110 Kcfs, but who knows if that rate will be enough to outflow all the rain that is coming. They will have to shut it down eventually to asses just how much has eroded.

From this fascinating pdf: CA DWR Storage Facilities we get this drawing:



Now lets get to the weir, and what a shitshow this is turning out to be. Below notice that near the main spillway it is tall and near the parking lot it is shorter. There was a lot of speculation that it was pre poured sections of the same height all the way across which would have been the strongest construction. In reality they built it "on grade" which means they followed the contour of the rock. Further it is not even "toed" or "keyed" significantly into the rock. There is also a retaining wall in front of the parking lot that won't do a damn thing if there is a significant overflow situation. The far left portion of the weir where it meets the parking lot retaining wall is the weak link here, that area will see a lot of turbulence which will scour that shitty rock like sand. Seawater going over the watertight doors in the Titanic comes to mind.

One thing to remember is all this damage was caused by a 1.5' head of water over the emergency spillway that flowed at a max rate of 8-12 Kcfs. If there is another event with similar numbers, the hillside will erode underneath the weir and the whole thing will come down and the entire reservoir will drain until it hits bedrock at maybe 800 feet. It is currently at around 880'. I cant believe they are letting people back in town. I want to know if the families of the govt officials, LEOs, and contractors are moving back to town. If they are not, I would not either.

Post: #57

Looking at that bedrock with my geologist vision without actually getting anywhere near it, it looks like rotten shit. First glances can be misleading, though.

Post: #58

(02-15-2017 02:06 AM)weambulance Wrote:  Looking at that bedrock with my geologist vision without actually getting anywhere near it, it looks like rotten shit. First glances can be misleading, though.

That's what I thought too -- this paper calls it the Smartville Ophiolite (Jurassic)
http://www.water.ca.gov/orovillerelicens...rt%201.pdf

I would envision that the gabbroic base of an ophiolite suite would be very competent, with the overlying pillow basalt, dikes and sills and marine sediments much weaker. but since it was exposed from sea floor to surface pretty rapidly in the young geological history of California (uplift of Sierra Nevadas) it was pretty strongly foliated and structurally deformed -- plus clearly exposed to serious alteration as you point out. I'm no metamorphic petrologist with a civil engineering passion though, and don't really know the rock-mechanics of this stuff, but I think it's safe to say extreme alteration during metamorphism and uplift definitely did a number on the rock competence. It almost looks serpentinized?

Post: #59

Central Valleys been due for a bath

Post: #60

Don't forget commie-fornia is also pissing away millions/billions on a bullet train that still hasn't laid a mile of track and the "bullet" speed has now been lowered to 70mph max.

Post: #61

(02-15-2017 09:03 AM)komatiite Wrote:  

(02-15-2017 02:06 AM)weambulance Wrote:  Looking at that bedrock with my geologist vision without actually getting anywhere near it, it looks like rotten shit. First glances can be misleading, though.

That's what I thought too -- this paper calls it the Smartville Ophiolite (Jurassic)
http://www.water.ca.gov/orovillerelicens...rt%201.pdf

I would envision that the gabbroic base of an ophiolite suite would be very competent, with the overlying pillow basalt, dikes and sills and marine sediments much weaker. but since it was exposed from sea floor to surface pretty rapidly in the young geological history of California (uplift of Sierra Nevadas) it was pretty strongly foliated and structurally deformed -- plus clearly exposed to serious alteration as you point out. I'm no metamorphic petrologist with a civil engineering passion though, and don't really know the rock-mechanics of this stuff, but I think it's safe to say extreme alteration during metamorphism and uplift definitely did a number on the rock competence. It almost looks serpentinized?

Pictures from the construction show them removing rock with a double shank ripper on the back of a bulldozer. I know we have a few members in mining here, perhaps they could chime in? From my limited UK experience of mining, if you can rip it with a single shank ripper, let alone a double shank, then the rock can be considered 'soft' or fractured. If it was a hard rock like granite, then they would have had to drill and blast, or use a cutting drum.

Post: #62

If I lived in the flood zone, I would probably have trouble sleeping at night, especially if it's raining.

Post: #63

(02-15-2017 09:03 AM)komatiite Wrote:  

(02-15-2017 02:06 AM)weambulance Wrote:  Looking at that bedrock with my geologist vision without actually getting anywhere near it, it looks like rotten shit. First glances can be misleading, though.

That's what I thought too -- this paper calls it the Smartville Ophiolite (Jurassic)
http://www.water.ca.gov/orovillerelicens...rt%201.pdf

I would envision that the gabbroic base of an ophiolite suite would be very competent, with the overlying pillow basalt, dikes and sills and marine sediments much weaker. but since it was exposed from sea floor to surface pretty rapidly in the young geological history of California (uplift of Sierra Nevadas) it was pretty strongly foliated and structurally deformed -- plus clearly exposed to serious alteration as you point out. I'm no metamorphic petrologist with a civil engineering passion though, and don't really know the rock-mechanics of this stuff, but I think it's safe to say extreme alteration during metamorphism and uplift definitely did a number on the rock competence. It almost looks serpentinized?

Interesting link, thanks. I didn't try very hard but I wasn't having much luck figuring out what kind of rock it was.

It's hard to say much without being there, because so much depends on orientation and degree of weathering. But it's certainly no better than middling-strong bedrock at best. If it's heavily weathered, it might be no better than shmoo. All the heavily serpentinized mafic/ultramafic rock I've seen was weak as hell; I could basically tear it apart with a rock hammer.

As I recall, mafic/ultramafic rocks are quite prone to rapid weathering because some of the common minerals like olivine are not very stable at surface conditions. I don't remember most of the details off the top of my head... I haven't had to use this knowledge since I was a TA teaching geology noobs.

But if roberto's right and they were just ripping it up with a bulldozer, it's nasty weak stuff. Even a low grade crummy schist is way too sturdy to attack with a ripper. What they were ripping might have been just the surface layers that were halfway to soil already, though.

Post: #64

Looks like another round of heavy rain is about to hit:

Post: #65

I have been following this thread and thinking...
   

Post: #66

(02-15-2017 11:54 AM)Dusty Wrote:  If I lived in the flood zone, I would probably have trouble sleeping at night, especially if it's raining.

I just flat out wouldn't.

I'm kind of picky about avoiding living in locations that sit under the shadow of millions and millions of litres of water.

Post: #67

(02-16-2017 05:00 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  

(02-15-2017 11:54 AM)Dusty Wrote:  If I lived in the flood zone, I would probably have trouble sleeping at night, especially if it's raining.

I just flat out wouldn't.

I'm kind of picky about avoiding living in locations that sit under the shadow of millions and millions of litres of water.

Yeah but, come on:

The 10 Most Dangerous Animals in Australia in 1 Terrifying List

Post: #68

Any update on rainfall?

Post: #69

CA has that nice trifecta of earthquakes, mudslides and fires. No hurricanes/tornadoes or nasty critters though, save for the antifas and norteno bad hombres.

I think they've managed to drop the water level nearly 30'. It should fill up again on the next couple of stormfronts, but the rainy season window is going to close in just a few weeks. This damn dam won't burst.

The water level now stands below 88% capacity, down from 100% just a few days ago.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/...?resid=ORO

Post: #70

I don't think it rained as much as they thought it would.

The lake level is slowly dropping; looks like it's in the mid 860 foot range right now (~900 feet is where it was when this all started) so there's no pressure on that spillway wall.

http://rdcfeeds.redding.com/lakelevels/oro.cfm

Post: #71

(02-16-2017 05:31 PM)weambulance Wrote:  I don't think it rained as much as they thought it would.

The lake level is slowly dropping; looks like it's in the mid 860 foot range right now (~900 feet is where it was when this all started) so there's no pressure on that spillway wall.

http://rdcfeeds.redding.com/lakelevels/oro.cfm

Not as much rain as they thought, and due to snow levels being around 6k some of the precip came down as snow and as long as the temps dont rise too much that will spread out the inflows over time which is just the conditions they needed to get some breathing room. I believe they are outflowing 80k with inflows of about 31k currently (Flow Data). There is another front coming in so hopefully that pattern holds. What they need now is a dry cool spring to slow the snowmelt, if they have a warm wet spring the precip inflows plus snowmelt will bring us right back here in 2 months.

Here is an Imgur album with a ton of hi-res pics.

Post: #72

I've heard the rains in LA were bad today. Anyone in Norcal able to share an update? When I heard about the rain in socal I immediately thought about this up north.

Post: #73

The water level is down to 82%, and still dropping. Looking hella good.

http://rdcfeeds.redding.com/lakelevels/oro.cfm

The dam won't collapse, but they'll have to plunk down ~$200M to fix the damage to the ramp and hillside this summer.

Post: #74

The relevance of this thread is not the predicament of the people below the dam in Oroville. The relevance is the fact of crumbling infrastructure that was built when the U.S. was flush with cash coupled with the kicking the can down the road approach of politicians to the issue of maintenance up until now, when we are pretty much out of money.

Short version: This is just the beginning of catastrophic infrastructure failures. This is just the good old days, when it was just some diverting story of what was going on in some California town you never heard of before.

Found this article linked at Zerohedge. Use your imagination:

11 Deeply Alarming Facts About America's Crumbling Infrastructure

Quote:#1 According to the American Road and Transportation Builders Association, nearly 56,000 bridges in the United States are currently “structurally deficient”. What makes that number even more chilling is the fact that vehicles cross those bridges a total of 185 million times a day.

#2 More than one out of every four bridges in the United States is more than 50 years old and “have never had major reconstruction work”.

#3 America does not have a single airport that is considered to be in the top 25 in the world.

#4 The average age of America’s dams is now 52 years.

#5 Not too long ago, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave the condition of America’s dams a “D” grade.

#6 Overall, the American Society of Civil Engineers said that the condition of America’s infrastructure as a whole only gets a “D+” grade.

#7 Congestion on our highways costs Americans approximately 101 billion dollars a year in wasted fuel and time.

#8 According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, over two-thirds of our roads are “in dire need of repair or upgrades”.

#9 In order to completely fix all of our roads and bridges, it would take approximately 808 billion dollars.

#10 Federal spending on infrastructure has decreased by 9 percent over the past decade.

#11 According to Bloomberg, it is being projected “that by 2025, shortfalls in infrastructure investment will subtract as much as $3.9 trillion from U.S. gross domestic product.”

Quote:The quality of our infrastructure affects all of our lives every single day. For instance, we all simply take it for granted that safe, clean drinking water is going to come out of our taps, but recent events have shown that is not necessarily always going to be the case.

Just ask the residents of Flint, Michigan.

Water pipes, sewer systems and water treatment facilities all over the nation are aging and are in desperate need of repair. Of course the exact same thing could be said about our power grid. It was never intended to handle so many people, and on the hottest days of the summer the strain on the grid is very evident.

Quote:President Trump’s instincts are right on the money when he says that he wants to spend a trillion dollars on infrastructure. Without a doubt, we desperately need it.

The problem is that we are flat broke.

We are 20 trillion dollars in debt, and we are adding more than a trillion dollars to that total every year.

So where are we going to get the money?

Post: #75

Very interesting short (3 min) segment by Jordan B Peterson from the Rogan podcast on flood mythology throughout history.