Post: #26

Going strong, your 75% figure sounds about right, but many of those whites still have non-French origins, and many of the other 25% are half white French. After all there is so much interracial dating in France. Looked it up and Black Africans are at almost the same strength as the Maghrebi's in Ile-de-France (i.e the Paris metropolitan area) but they are strongly outnumbered in the rest of the country, which lines up with my experience as of 2015. I don't remember seeing a single Black person in Lyon for example, but there were heaps of Arabs.

(01-28-2017 07:23 AM)Going strong Wrote:  

(01-28-2017 04:18 AM)britchard Wrote:  Le Pen to get 20% of the Magrehbi vote is wildly optimistic. In the UK, UKIP only got 2% of the ethnic minority vote and they are arguably less vocal in their opposition to immigration and Islam. Le Pen would be doing well to even get 1% of the Magrehbi vote.

Focusing on minorities isn't going to win her the election. France is around 85% white, which is lower than the United Kingdom (87%) but higher than England (79%, although much higher if you exclude London). That is more than enough to not have to court the minority vote, also, what is the minority turnout to vote in France? I doubt it is higher than the US or UK.

France is around 85% white:



Ethnic statistics are forbidden in France, because they would result in an immediate uprising of the natives (the Whites).

But... Years and years ago, the Israeli Mossad estimated Maghrebi in France at 6 millions. Now they obviously are more numerous, say 8 millions.

On the other hand, everybody notices that, stunningly, there are nowadays more Blacks in France than Magrhebi. So (taking into account some distortion of perception, Blacks getting more "noticed", sometimes unfairly), say 7-9 millions.

All in all, around 16 millions of invaders. Add one million of (mostly peaceful, civilized and integrated) Asians, and we are at 17 millions of foreigners.

So, more than 25%... France is only like, 75% White.

And in ten, 15 years?

Well, look at the picture below, taken in the provincial city of Troyes, and published in the municipal counsel newspaper... a small city (with a 100%-Establishment, globalist, White center-Right mayor) where the number of African migrants should be at its lowest (and imagine what it is like in bigger cities):


http://www.fdesouche.com/813823-troyes-1...e-la-ville

The France of tomorrow, unless remigration is implemented...

Post: #27

The mainstream media are trying to annihilate Fillon's candidacy in order to boost Macron's but they are making a mistake.

As the primaries have shown, Right wing voters overwhelmingly support conservatism.

If you take Fillon out of the picture, most of those will give their support to Marine Le Pen.

There's no way Right wing voters will cast their vote in favour of a socialist renegade. Only the liberal-leaning Centrists will do so, but as we know they are in the minority.

The leftist media's little schemes and tricks will backfire.

Post: #28

(01-29-2017 02:06 AM)Deluge Wrote:  Going strong, your 75% figure sounds about right, but many of those whites still have non-French origins, and many of the other 25% are half white French. After all there is so much interracial dating in France. Looked it up and Black Africans are at almost the same strength as the Maghrebi's in Ile-de-France (i.e the Paris metropolitan area) but they are strongly outnumbered in the rest of the country, which lines up with my experience as of 2015. I don't remember seeing a single Black person in Lyon for example, but there were heaps of Arabs.

Lyon has its (big) fair share of Blacks. Trust me, I lived there many years.

Post: #29

So no surprise then, Hamon puts Valls out to pasture, good riddance!

It's way too early, but I think Fillon will weather that stinkball ("boule puante") and make it to the runoff. Fillon's wife is very presentable, not model-like beauty, but a classic "BCBG" wife that's going to appeal to voters a whole lot more than Macron's cougar beard.

Hamon won't make it, unless Melanchon pulls out in his favor, then he might have a small chance. He's going to get a lot of the youth vote with the universal revenues (600E/mo for the under 25s).

Macron is in no man's land, fake leftist banker, won't appeal to most socialists, too shady for most UMP voters and zero pull with traditionalists.

I think it's still going to be Fillon v Le Pen, unless there are some dramatic last stretch alliances on the left.

Post: #30

Here's the question - has Marine Le Pen learned from Trump at all?

Is she using his social media game? Is she building a base of trolls around herself to drive news cycles? Is she trying to argue or is she using the tools of persuasion?

She should reach out to Breitbart and others and try to find people that can help her campaign. She should be thinking of linguistic kill shots. Macron's face in particular is ripe for some against his masculinity (the hag he married is proof of that).

Post: #31

Le Pen is quite charismatic. She's not a Trump level persuader but she has the chops.

Post: #32

How is she running her campaign? Le Pen has the potential but what tactics is she using? On the level of strategy, she should play a kind of Go game, isolating Paris and surrounding it by turning out as many people from the countryside as possible where her base is, as far as my understanding of the regions goes.

Post: #33

(01-29-2017 09:40 PM)Libertas Wrote:  Here's the question - has Marine Le Pen learned from Trump at all?

Is she using his social media game? Is she building a base of trolls around herself to drive news cycles? Is she trying to argue or is she using the tools of persuasion?

Not sure any of the above works in france, totally different culture. The meme trolling is highly affective in the anglo world because the population is very receptive to sarcasm, satire and other forms of comedy. Having been exposed to France, french culture and very much french films, i can without a doubt say, they are NOT a funny people. Possibly the most serious people in europe and their comedy is mostly awful to watch.

Post: #34

(01-30-2017 11:17 AM)8ball Wrote:  

(01-29-2017 09:40 PM)Libertas Wrote:  Here's the question - has Marine Le Pen learned from Trump at all?

Is she using his social media game? Is she building a base of trolls around herself to drive news cycles? Is she trying to argue or is she using the tools of persuasion?

Not sure any of the above works in france, totally different culture. The meme trolling is highly affective in the anglo world because the population is very receptive to sarcasm, satire and other forms of comedy. Having been exposed to France, french culture and very much french films, i can without a doubt say, they are NOT a funny people. Possibly the most serious people in europe and their comedy is mostly awful to watch.

Have you seen German comedy?

Post: #35

French people place a lot of importance in subtlety, social awareness (meaning aware of the social games being played), style, and their culture as superior.

The problem is they actually buy in to their media and it's anti-racism that it pushes. They have also got a long quite well (at times) with the Algerians who have been in France since the 70's who are descended from the Algerians who sided with the French in the Civil War. These descendants are becoming less French friendly by the minute though.

What IS waking them up is the newcomers and the crushing poverty of many French people. A lot of French HATE Front National and Marine Le Pen, so, if she makes the Final Round she's going to have to persuade a lot of new people and have some help to get her over the top.

My prediction is Le Pen making the final round and the final tally being very close, but Le Pen losing narrowly.

Now, if she faces off against a socialist in the final round, then she will have a better chance. Against a center right candidate she will probably lose. Socialists will vote for the not-FN candidate in large numbers, but it's less sure if the Right will vote for a socialist over Le Pen.

So, your best bet is to root for her and a socialist candidate to win the first round if you want her to win.

Post: #36

(01-30-2017 02:27 PM)KorbenDallas Wrote:  Now, if she faces off against a socialist in the final round, then she will have a better chance. Against a center right candidate she will probably lose. Socialists will vote for the not-FN candidate in large numbers, but it's less sure if the Right will vote for a socialist over Le Pen.

So, your best bet is to root for her and a socialist candidate to win the first round if you want her to win.

The problem with this is that the socialist candidate is more likely to win in the runoff than not. I'd rather have a sure B candidate like Fillon than risk having a total SJW globalist "D" candidate like Macron or a year zero universal income leftist like Hamon. Fillon has been getting a lot of flack from the media for being socially conservative. In his case, it's more genuine than for Sarkozy.

Post: #37

(01-30-2017 11:17 AM)8ball Wrote:  

(01-29-2017 09:40 PM)Libertas Wrote:  Here's the question - has Marine Le Pen learned from Trump at all?

Is she using his social media game? Is she building a base of trolls around herself to drive news cycles? Is she trying to argue or is she using the tools of persuasion?

Not sure any of the above works in france, totally different culture. The meme trolling is highly affective in the anglo world because the population is very receptive to sarcasm, satire and other forms of comedy. Having been exposed to France, french culture and very much french films, i can without a doubt say, they are NOT a funny people. Possibly the most serious people in europe and their comedy is mostly awful to watch.

Comedy as a political tool does work in France. Dieudonné has become public enemy #1 in France through his sharp comedic skills. He's used a powerful meme, the "queunelle", which is an "up yours" arm signal. His skills are very funny, hilarious yet cerebral, and very cutting at once. Before him, Coluche was another comedian who threatened the regime so much that the government had him killed.

Dieudonné is a very relevant topic here, because he's managed to rally a broad red pill coalition of right wing anti-government people that included a lot of youth and minority support. He was at odds with the local equivalent of AIPAC/ADL, ostracized and ruthlessly persecuted by the judicial system, while still drawing huge crowds on comedy tours.

Guys like Soral, Coluche and Dieudonné are extremely dangerous to the sytem because they destroy the fake right-left divide and unite a broad coalition against the establishment. Think of the battle between Alex Jones and TYT, deep down they agree about 60% or more on the issues, want to undo the globalists elites, but leftists are more easily misled and manipulated by the SJW narrative. There is some ideological manipulation on the right as well.

Dieudo and his intellectual companion Alain Soral (public enemy 1A in France) are very tight with Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine's father, and are more aligned with him ideologically. Le Pen should have taken that political tack instead of bending over to the LICRA and masons (who represent about 1/5th of the french congress), she could have undercut the minority vote from the Socialists.

Unlike in Germany or the US, most of the Africa/Maghreb immigrants in France came decades ago, so you can court that vote while still being against new immigration. Most of the 2nd gen kids in the banlieue and their parents don't care if they round up the Roma or Bengali FOBs, in fact they'd welcome it. So Le Pen is making a big strategic mistake there by not going with the Soral open nationalist/traditionalist line.

Post: #38

(01-30-2017 02:09 PM)El_Gostro Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 11:17 AM)8ball Wrote:  

(01-29-2017 09:40 PM)Libertas Wrote:  Here's the question - has Marine Le Pen learned from Trump at all?

Is she using his social media game? Is she building a base of trolls around herself to drive news cycles? Is she trying to argue or is she using the tools of persuasion?

Not sure any of the above works in france, totally different culture. The meme trolling is highly affective in the anglo world because the population is very receptive to sarcasm, satire and other forms of comedy. Having been exposed to France, french culture and very much french films, i can without a doubt say, they are NOT a funny people. Possibly the most serious people in europe and their comedy is mostly awful to watch.

Have you seen German comedy?

Does such a thing exist ?

Concerning Soral, I'm not sure he has many followers.

Post: #39

(02-01-2017 04:11 AM)Edelweiss Wrote:  Does such a thing exist ?

Post: #40

Front National populist politician Marion Maréchal-Le Pen railed against feminists in the French parliament who want to shut down pro-life websites calling them “has-been feminists” and “political dinosaurs”.

Post: #41

(02-01-2017 01:53 PM)budoslavic Wrote:  Front National populist politician Marion Maréchal-Le Pen railed against feminists in the French parliament who want to shut down pro-life websites calling them “has-been feminists” and “political dinosaurs”.

Beautiful speech.

Post: #42

Good reporting by RT about Marine Le Pen and the Frech Presidential Election.




Le Pen was denied access to a refugee camp in Northern France.

Post: #43

To any baguette insiders - are there any semi-reliable predictions of her chances of winning? I've read on couple of forums that she stands no chance, and not in a "Trump also had no chance" way, but in a real, literal "no chance" type of way.

Post: #44

Germany may not have a sense of humour but it loves British humour. The French believe they are above the Roastbeefs and anything to do with it. We went to war with them plenty of times because they're insufferable cunts easily led astray by elites.

I'm telling you guys, these Europeans do not and never think like British people, let alone Americans who are red blooded and patriotic. You're going to lose if you swing a big dick meme war into their country. They would sooner flip you the bird and vote socialist and more multiculturism.

You can't humiliate them either, just look at their shameless Canadian counter-parts to see why.

You best weapon of attack is drive their anger and direct it towards something and anything associated with that 'thing' will be annihilated also.

When countries south of Norther Europe go nuts its usually a quick flash fire and the political dissarray keeps happening years down the line. When a Nothern EU country goes ape shit it is usually an all in affair, the entire continent will go "oh shit" and even the US & Russia will go "holy shit". When a large chunk of the population goes on the warpath and god help you if you're in their sights.

Slow to anger, blows like a nuke. French, German, Austrians all have limits but need to come together as one to fight. They're not big on individualism.

Post: #45

(02-01-2017 02:36 PM)Edelweiss Wrote:  

(02-01-2017 01:53 PM)budoslavic Wrote:  Front National populist politician Marion Maréchal-Le Pen railed against feminists in the French parliament who want to shut down pro-life websites calling them “has-been feminists” and “political dinosaurs”.

Beautiful speech.

She's right to take on the feminist hags, but to be truly useful, she needs to extol the native Frenchwomen to have kids, and lots of them.

The battle of the vote can only be won if you've won the battle of the womb.

Post: #46

(02-01-2017 09:03 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  She's right to take on the feminist hags, but to be truly useful, she needs to extol the native Frenchwomen to have kids, and lots of them.

The battle of the vote can only be won if you've won the battle of the womb.

Young Marion already has one daughter, but she seperated from the father a few months ago.

I'm worried pro-natalist incentives will just subsidise more of the usual suspects having babies, and native French women will still be in the career first, babies when I'm ready to settle down at 45 mode.

They, (us too) need a cultural shift to see motherhood as a necessary choice for continuing a civilisation..

Post: #47

(02-01-2017 09:03 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  She's right to take on the feminist hags, but to be truly useful, she needs to extol the native Frenchwomen to have kids, and lots of them.

The battle of the vote can only be won if you've won the battle of the womb.

Young Marion already has one daughter, but she seperated from the father a few months ago.

I'm worried pro-natalist incentives will just subsidise more of the usual suspects having babies, and native French women will still be in the career first, babies when I'm ready to settle down at 45 mode.

They, (us too) need a cultural shift to see motherhood as a necessary choice for continuing a civilisation..

Post: #48

(02-01-2017 04:39 PM)Jaihoo Wrote:  To any baguette insiders - are there any semi-reliable predictions of her chances of winning? I've read on couple of forums that she stands no chance, and not in a "Trump also had no chance" way, but in a real, literal "no chance" type of way.

As a guess, Marine's base of core support is about as big as Trump's was. And probably more loyal because she and the FN have been around for a lot longer. The difference here though is the two round system and who the leading candidates are. Trump was running against an unpopular status quo candidate from the major leftist party. Running on the Republican ticket, a big chunk of the people who voted for him did so who probably would have voted for the Republican if Trump was running as a 3rd party, because that is what most voters do each election, vote for the party they have always voted for.

Le Pen however is a 3rd party candidate running either against an alt-lite guy from the major centre-right party, or an anti-establishment centrist whose started his own party. So both of her potential opponents are also running against the status quo and she will not have the default vote of the bulk of conservatives in France that she would have had if she was the LR candidate. This is why I think coming from a similar base I don't think Le Pen will be able to do as well as Trump did especially against Fillon, if he survives this scandal. Though the polls show Macron actually doing better than him now (59-41 vs 65-35).

Post: #49

Marine Le Pen is currently paying 11/4 for a win.. Has to be done sooner or later..

Post: #50

Marine Le Pen probably has a better chance against this Macron guy than against Fillon in the second round. The problem is that if Macron wins France is gonna be fucked up the ass literally. Fillon isn't Le Pen but he's less bad than all the others, it seems.