Post: #1

The French election is coming up soon, no doubt the most important political event of the year and something that will decide upon the survival of the European Union.

The election will be held in 2 rounds, the first in late April and the second in early May comprising off a run-off between the top 2 candidates. Incumbent President Francois Hollande of the Socialist Party is so unpopular that he's chosen not to seek a second term after having failed to fix the economy and bring down France's high unemployment rate, all while France has been hit by so many terrorist attacks. Hollande also enraged his fellow Socialists by trying to liberalize the economy and labour laws and pass welfare reforms. So much so that 40 Socialist MP's decided to vote against Hollande on every single piece of legislation in protest. With the incumbent now out of the picture, France's left is in complete disarray, setting the stage for what is going to be a very interesting election to watch.

In the order of how they are doing in the polls in the 1st round:

1. Marine Le Pen of the Front National (FN) at 27%. A right-wing populist who combines opposing immigration, cracking down on terrorism and a strong stance on law and order with protectionism and a strong social safety net and role for the state in the economy. She also supports holding a Frexit referendum to leave the E.U. Le Pen is the leader of the nationalist movement not only in France but across Europe, and her victory would be an even greater blow for the globalist project than Donald Trump's, since the E.U and the Euro would surely break apart if France were to leave the E.U.



2. François Fillon of the centre-right Les Republicans at 25%. He is a social conservative from the furthest right of the party with staunch neoliberal views on economics. He represents a combination of social conservatism and Thatcherism which is normal for the centre-right in the English speaking world but is uncommon for a centre-right candidate in France. The most conservative LR candidate in the primaries, Fillon's victory was a completely surprise to everyone, but also somewhat of a relief to many anti-nationalists as on a head to head match up with Le Pen he is polled to win with over 60% of the vote. Some wonder though if Fillon's support for Anglo-Saxon style economics will turn off some traditional conservative voters who would prefer Le Pen's support for the old school dirigisme, or if leftist voters who otherwise would have holded their nose to vote for a centre-right candidate might now vote for the Le Pen due to Fillon's free-market stance. On the other hand, Fillon's conservatism on social and immigration issues may keep within the Republican fold some who are considering voting for the FN because of immigration and Islam, making it difficult for Le Pen to form a majority coalition.



3. Emmanuel Macron at 21%, who has founded his own party called En Marche! A former investment banker and ex-Socialist Minister for the Economy, Macron has broken away from his old Socialist Party in which is he was always somewhat of a maverick, and is running as a centrist, socially liberal and pro E.U change candidate promising to "unblock" France. Young and charismatic, Macron is the most personally popular of all the Presidential candidates in the election and somewhat of an Obama figure. Now that his old Socialist Party will this week nominate a hard left-winger, Macron is expected to pick up support from moderate Socialists and may have a chance at cracking into the top 2 to face off against either Le Pen or Fillon.



4. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the Left Front at 15%. Mélenchon has no hope of making it beyond the first round, and even if he did no hope of winning the 2nd. The only interesting thing about how he's doing is that the largest member of the Left Front coalition is the French Communist Party (PCF), which means that as it was until sometime in the 60's, the Communists may be the most popular left of centre party. Although this being France, neither are considered to be among the "far-left".

5. Benoît Hamon of the Socialist Party at 9%. Yes, the major party of France's left and the party of the incumbent President has now fallen to 5th place in the polls. Hamon will clinch his party's nomination this week, and represents the hard left of the party quite similar to those in the Left Front. Like with Fillon of Les Republicans, Hamon's victory in the primaries was a surprise to everyone. Being as left-wing as he is, this development will likely mean many moderate Socialist voters will instead support Emmanuel Macron, turning this election into a three way race.

Finally to thank you all for reading, I present to you Marine Le Pen's 27 year old niece and the youngest MP in French history, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen.

Post: #2

The media will do Le Pen no favors, but hopefully there's enough woke Frenchmen who decide enough is enough. The next French Revolution starts when the men of French find their balls (and we know from past history they can be bloody violent when they do!) and use them. Le Pen just might be Saint Joan of Arc, round two. Hopefully she wins, giving further validation to Trump and Brexit. No more globalists, no more Islamic scum!

P.S. French women, yea, can't argue with that.

Post: #3

From Wikipedia

Emmanuel Macron married Brigitte Trogneux, 24 years older than him and his former French teacher in high school,[1] in 2007. The couple lives with Trogneux's children from a previous marriage in France.

WTF?? In a sane world, that wold immediately disqualify him from office in the hearts and minds of any normal voters.

Post: #4

(01-25-2017 02:46 AM)Zamyatin Wrote:  WTF?? In a sane world, that wold immediately disqualify him from office in the hearts and minds of any normal voters.

How can you say that? He's such a loving son... oh wait...

Post: #5

I'm mostly interested in the betting markets. The major bookies are places Le Pen at 3:1 and Fillon at around 2:1. Close but with the double election system what is the best way of betting. Im assuming just before the announcement of round 1 will maximize your return on a Le Pen win. Assuming she wins round 1 then followed by no bets in round 2 or bet on the favorite.

What is everyone's betting strategy for this election?

Post: #6

Fillon has said he's going to close France's borders to refugees.

Post: #7

(01-25-2017 05:44 AM)Ethan Hunt Wrote:  I'm mostly interested in the betting markets. The major bookies are places Le Pen at 3:1 and Fillon at around 2:1. Close but with the double election system what is the best way of betting. Im assuming just before the announcement of round 1 will maximize your return on a Le Pen win. Assuming she wins round 1 then followed by no bets in round 2 or bet on the favorite.

What is everyone's betting strategy for this election?

Before Fillon entered I would've bet on LePen, but now I'm gonna stay out of those bets, the result is too unpredictable I think. Fillon is trying to position himself as an alt-light guy compared to LePen, trying to skim the angry voters from LePen

Post: #8

Fillon seems like a George Bush type candidate. Talks a conservative talk, will end us as another globalist.

Post: #9

(01-25-2017 05:44 AM)Ethan Hunt Wrote:  I'm mostly interested in the betting markets. The major bookies are places Le Pen at 3:1 and Fillon at around 2:1. Close but with the double election system what is the best way of betting. Im assuming just before the announcement of round 1 will maximize your return on a Le Pen win. Assuming she wins round 1 then followed by no bets in round 2 or bet on the favorite.

What is everyone's betting strategy for this election?

It depends what you think the probability of either of those 2 winning is. Effectively, you could cover your losses by putting an even stake on both of them, or slightly weighted towards Fillon. That way you are guaranteed to make a profit if either of those 2 wins.

I'm surprised you can get 2/1 for Fillon. Would have thought he'd be below evens.

Post: #10

(01-25-2017 07:08 AM)Deluge Wrote:  Fillon has said he's going to close France's borders to refugees.

I believe that this is just talk. He got the vibe that refugees is the hot issue, so he is pandering the talk to appease the rising nationalistic sentiment. This will also help divert some people who like Le Pen's immigration policy but dont agree with her other points, to his camp.

Every straight minded heads here however, know that only Le Pen will walk the walk when it comes to border refugees. I dont trust Filion on this one.

Post: #11

(01-25-2017 05:44 AM)Ethan Hunt Wrote:  I'm mostly interested in the betting markets. The major bookies are places Le Pen at 3:1 and Fillon at around 2:1. Close but with the double election system what is the best way of betting. Im assuming just before the announcement of round 1 will maximize your return on a Le Pen win. Assuming she wins round 1 then followed by no bets in round 2 or bet on the favorite.

What is everyone's betting strategy for this election?

Fillon might not be compromised. He's def not Plan A for the globalists, he was at best Plan C or D. Macron is the Rothschild stooge, they've groomed him in their bank. The Socialists are the other SJW/identity politics types, Valls was completely in their pocket. Hamon, who is going to beat him and represent the PSoc., is also in their pocket, and further left, with universal minimum income plans, a big step towards full-fledged communism and greater state control.

On the center right ("Republicains"), Sarkozy was their man, followed by Juppé. Fillon is their worst candidate next to Le Pen, because he's sympathetic to Russia and Putin, and he openly espouses Catholic traditionalist values, something the french globalists abhor. They tend to be freemasons of the Grand Orient persuasion, who are atheistic extremists and have installed "laicité", a militant form of masonic atheism, since the 1789 Revolution.

Charlie Hebdo is a Rothschild psy-op, whose role was to degrade french culture and provoke an islamic attack. French masonic luciferian intellectuals have laid the plans for world communism, well before Marx or Engels, with people like Babeuf, who have been the main influence behind communist freaks like Pol Pot and Ho Chi Min, who were actually groomed in France.

Ever since the days of Jules Ferry in the late 19th century, many masons have infiltrated and shaped modern french culture, and the french education system in particular, attacking french Catholic values. Ferry has shaped the modern french education system, and since then most of the education ministers were other freemasons, who were intent on making their form of cabbalistic, luciferian secularism as the new state religion. Here is a very telling interview of Peillon, a current socialist candidate who was himself the education minister:

http://www.egaliteetreconciliation.fr/Vi...18760.html

Back to the elections: the french MSM is not very favorable to Fillon, and is pumping up Macron. They've just dug up a scandal about Fillon, the fact that his wife had a state job for 8 years. This should tell you that Fillon is not their candidate, he's Plan C or D at best.

Fillon has espoused Catholic, traditional values, upper class old school family man, living in the conservative Sarthe region castle with five kids. Most of my french friends like him. He's lukewarm at best towards gay marriage, and against further legislation in that direction (adoptions etc).

With this new blemish thrown at him though, Le Pen's chance went up a bit. Fillon would have killed her in a runoff. If Fillon drops to 3rd place though, Le Pen will run against Hamon or Macron, or (less likely) Mélanchon (hard left freemason globalist, 100% controlled opposition). In this case, Le Pen would rally a good chunk of the center-right vote. Macron would however beat her, his banker credentials and polished image will appeal to a decisive segment of the center-right/center establishment.

So if you want Le Pen or bust, you have to root for Hamon. Personally I would rather have a guaranteed Fillon win than risk having a hardcore socialist/globalist run France further down, though I'd be very happy if Le Pen somehow pulls it off. She's partly compromised, having bent over for the masons and the ((lobby)), but if she wins, she is going to call the shots and might actually listen to her father and turn on them.

Now for betting purposes, Le Pen at 3 to 1 is still not a very good pick. Remember Trump was 6 to 1, and that was just him going against Crooked Hillary.

Post: #12

(01-25-2017 01:21 PM)911 Wrote:  Fillon would have killed her in a runoff. If Fillon drops to 3rd place though, Le Pen will run against Hamon or Macron, or (less likely) Mélanchon (hard left freemason globalist, 100% controlled opposition). In this case, Le Pen would rally a good chunk of the center-right vote. Macron would however beat her, his banker credentials and polished image will appeal to a decisive segment of the center-right/center establishment.

I agree that Fillon would rout Le Pen in the run-off. Would Macron actually be able to attract that many centre-right voters though? Investment banker or not the guy is still a socially progressive ex-Socialist minister. Thinking from the point of view of the LR base, a well to do social conservative will still find Macron to the left of them on both economics, social issues and immigration. Whereas they have common ground with Le Pen on the later two. Wouldn't your typical centre-right voter perceive Macron as being on the left and Le Pen as on the right and then vote for her on that basis?

With so many socially conservative working class voters who once formed the backbone of the Socialist Party defecting to Le Pen, Macron needs to be able to add a decent chunk of the traditional UMP/LR base into his tent in the run-off. Just from a political psychology point of view I'm not so sure if he'd be able to do that.

Post: #13

The 2-round voting system is a farce, and no more than a kick in the teeth of democracy.

The candidates present themselves, the people vote, the winner takes it all. End of the story.

However, with the current 2-round system, Le Pen will NEVER win the presidency even if she arrives on top in the first round.

In the second round, political schemes and plots will put democracy to the bin as the losing parties will start making alliances and manipulate the media to rally against Le Pen and giving the win to "anyone but Le Pen".

In last year's regional election, Le Pen's party, the Front National, won two regions in the first round with a vast majority of votes.

The first region was won by Marine Le Pen herself, in Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie, with over 40% of the votes !
The second candidate, from the Socialist Party, only gathered 25% of the votes, yet he won in the second round against Le Pen.

The second region, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, was won, again with over 40% of the votes by Marion Maréchal-Le Pen and the second ranked candidate, from the Républicains Party, had only 24% of the votes. Yet again, Le Pen lost in the second round.

This is utter nonsense and political manipulation. Not democracy.

Why the need to vote twice ? The people chose their preferred candidate among all those who put their candidacy forward.
The 2-round system is in place only to guarantee that no other party except the 2 dominating parties (The Socialists and the Republicans, formerly known as UMP) win.

Post: #14

(01-26-2017 09:36 AM)Deluge Wrote:  Macron needs to be able to add a decent chunk of the traditional UMP/LR base into his tent in the run-off. Just from a political psychology point of view I'm not so sure if he'd be able to do that.

He won't be able to do that. No way, because his gayness is most obvious by the day: he even wears two marriage rings, 1 on each hand: one for his (25 years older than him) beard, the other for his male lover.

Macron could only have stolen female 40+ Conservative women' votes, being a handsome smiling, well-groomed White upper-class dude. But, now that word is out that he is gay, he'll lose these (not young) women who only like him for sexual-fantasy reasons (plus, they loved him marrying a much, much older woman).

Actually, the Fillon "Penelopegate scandal", has been unearthed to hide and smokescreen the concomitant Macron scandal, for at the same time it was revealed that Macron had taken public money (from his Ministry) to fund his private campaigning.

All in all, the Penelopegate might be very good news for Marine Le Pen, or, horresco referens, for Melenchon-Hamon-Macron. Time will tell.

The harsh fact remains though, that Marine Le Pen needs 80% of the vote of Whites to win. At the moment she's got 60%, maybe 65% of this vote, not enough.
Alternatively, she can try winning more Maghrebi vote (the votes of well-integrated Maghrebi), which she will. She'll hopefully be at 20% of Maghrebi votes, taking the secret vote of many oppressed (or liberated by employment) Muslim females. She'll also get quite a few male Muslim votes (the Muslim artisans, owners of small blue-collar enterprises) and a handful of Dom-Tom Islanders votes... will it be enough? I have a good idea of the answer to that.

Post: #15

(01-27-2017 07:14 PM)Going strong Wrote:  will it be enough? I have a good idea of the answer to that.

What is that idea that you have ?

Post: #16

Little Macron attacks Theresa May for speaking with Trump.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...te-US.html

Post: #17

(01-27-2017 07:26 PM)Transsimian Wrote:  Little Macron attacks Theresa May for speaking with Trump.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...te-US.html

What do you expect from the guy who married his high school teacher?

Post: #18

(01-27-2017 07:24 PM)Edelweiss Wrote:  

(01-27-2017 07:14 PM)Going strong Wrote:  will it be enough? I have a good idea of the answer to that.

What is that idea that you have ?

The demographics are probably not here for her to win.

That said... now, with Fillon suddenly torpedoed, and if D. Trump agrees to help her (by receiving her at the White House), Marine can win.

So I think that, effectively, D. Trump will decide who's the winner. If he refuses to grant a meeting to Marine, she will not win. If he receives her warmly and with his usual high-energy, she'll win (unless Fillon moves back in the game, which he can do only if there's -unfortunately- another major terro attack soon, to distract people's minds off his "scandal").

Post: #19

(01-27-2017 07:37 PM)Going strong Wrote:  

(01-27-2017 07:24 PM)Edelweiss Wrote:  

(01-27-2017 07:14 PM)Going strong Wrote:  will it be enough? I have a good idea of the answer to that.

What is that idea that you have ?

The demographics are probably not here for her to win.

That said... now, with Fillon suddenly torpedoed, and if D. Trump agrees to help her (by receiving her at the White House), Marine can win.

So I think that, effectively, D. Trump will decide who's the winner. If he refuses to grant a meeting to Marine, she will not win. If he receives her warmly and with his usual high-energy, she'll win (unless Fillon moves back in the game, which he can do only if there's -unfortunately- another major terror attack soon, to distract people's minds off his "scandal").

The demographics will only get worse. With mass immigration, low native birthrates and media propaganda, the FN will never have a better chance than now.

Do you think that a terror attack, should it happen, will benefit more Fillon than Le Pen ?

Post: #20

(01-27-2017 07:34 PM)fokker Wrote:  

(01-27-2017 07:26 PM)Transsimian Wrote:  Little Macron attacks Theresa May for speaking with Trump.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...te-US.html

What do you expect from the guy who married his high school teacher?

To be fair, since she is heir to a huge chocolate company, he might just be a sociopath and not a pervert.

(01-27-2017 07:51 PM)Edelweiss Wrote:  Do you think that a terror attack, should it happen, will benefit more Fillon than Le Pen ?

Le Pen for sure, she says what everyone afraid of terrorists is thinking.

(01-27-2017 07:37 PM)Going strong Wrote:  So I think that, effectively, D. Trump will decide who's the winner.

Donald may be unpopular in France now, but at the amazing rate he's getting things done, his word will mean a lot in 98 days.

Post: #21

I know very little about France. For the people on the forum from France, who are you voting for and why?

Post: #22

Le Pen to get 20% of the Magrehbi vote is wildly optimistic. In the UK, UKIP only got 2% of the ethnic minority vote and they are arguably less vocal in their opposition to immigration and Islam. Le Pen would be doing well to even get 1% of the Magrehbi vote.

Focusing on minorities isn't going to win her the election. France is around 85% white, which is lower than the United Kingdom (87%) but higher than England (79%, although much higher if you exclude London). That is more than enough to not have to court the minority vote, also, what is the minority turnout to vote in France? I doubt it is higher than the US or UK.

Post: #23

(01-28-2017 04:18 AM)britchard Wrote:  Le Pen to get 20% of the Magrehbi vote is wildly optimistic. In the UK, UKIP only got 2% of the ethnic minority vote and they are arguably less vocal in their opposition to immigration and Islam. Le Pen would be doing well to even get 1% of the Magrehbi vote.

Focusing on minorities isn't going to win her the election. France is around 85% white, which is lower than the United Kingdom (87%) but higher than England (79%, although much higher if you exclude London). That is more than enough to not have to court the minority vote, also, what is the minority turnout to vote in France? I doubt it is higher than the US or UK.

France is around 85% white:



Ethnic statistics are forbidden in France, because they would result in an immediate uprising of the natives (the Whites).

But... Years and years ago, the Israeli Mossad estimated Maghrebi in France at 6 millions. Now they obviously are more numerous, say 8 millions.

On the other hand, everybody notices that, stunningly, there are nowadays more Blacks in France than Magrhebi. So (taking into account some distortion of perception, Blacks getting more "noticed", sometimes unfairly), say 7-9 millions.

All in all, around 16 millions of invaders. Add one million of (mostly peaceful, civilized and integrated) Asians, and we are at 17 millions of foreigners.

So, more than 25%... France is only like, 75% White.

And in ten, 15 years?

Well, look at the picture below, taken in the provincial city of Troyes, and published in the municipal counsel newspaper... a small city (with a 100%-Establishment, globalist, White center-Right mayor) where the number of African migrants should be at its lowest (and imagine what it is like in bigger cities):


http://www.fdesouche.com/813823-troyes-1...e-la-ville

The France of tomorrow, unless remigration is implemented...

Post: #24

^Well, even worse for your political chances then. I read that Sarkozy tried to get the law changed so that he could collect ethnic data back when he was President, but it was blocked.

In England, it isn't the black population that is growing massively (also many of the blacks here are from Caribbean descent, not African) but rather the Muslims.

Post: #25

(01-27-2017 07:51 PM)Edelweiss Wrote:  

(01-27-2017 07:37 PM)Going strong Wrote:  

(01-27-2017 07:24 PM)Edelweiss Wrote:  

(01-27-2017 07:14 PM)Going strong Wrote:  will it be enough? I have a good idea of the answer to that.

What is that idea that you have ?

The demographics are probably not here for her to win.

That said... now, with Fillon suddenly torpedoed, and if D. Trump agrees to help her (by receiving her at the White House), Marine can win.

So I think that, effectively, D. Trump will decide who's the winner. If he refuses to grant a meeting to Marine, she will not win. If he receives her warmly and with his usual high-energy, she'll win (unless Fillon moves back in the game, which he can do only if there's -unfortunately- another major terror attack soon, to distract people's minds off his "scandal").

The demographics will only get worse. With mass immigration, low native birthrates and media propaganda, the FN will never have a better chance than now.

Do you think that a terror attack, should it happen, will benefit more Fillon than Le Pen ?

If it were, God forbid, to happen now, it would save Fillon's candicacy, which otherwise is mortally wounded (by the Penelopegate)... if it happens later on - but still before the elections, it'd be electorally-beneficial for both Le Pen and Fillon.

That is why nothing will happen, by the way: the Establishment is working hard to neutralize the terrorists until the end of French elections... They want Macron elected, at all costs, they even sacrificed the Catalan anti-Franquista, Manu-the-Red, Manu-the-shakes, in favor of their wonder-boy.

If you want Macron defined in one word: it's the White-Obama. Complete with gayness (badly hidden under a perpetual smile), pandering to minorities, swindling of public funds, ligth-communist policies. Obama is re-incarned (while still alive, much respect), it's Macron (well, with a bit of Hamon mixed in it, considering the shadowy links between Hamon and the French Bill-Ayers from city-of-Jihad Trappes...)!