Here's some articles to help out the analysis... and thinking $1,000 before the new year... will it happen, is still in the air, no?


https://cointelegraph.com/news/1000-befo...k-at-india

Here's a good contemporary thread that gets to the heart of the question regarding whether now is a good time to buy bitcoins and various considerations regarding buying or not.

Surely, these are potential opinions and factors that are outlined for guys to consider.


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...y_bitcoin/

The below linked article may be some variation of another article that I had posted a few months ago... .. but since everything in bitcoinlandia seems to move quickly, this particular article gives an update to a claim of what are bitcoin's 8 fastest growing markets...


Note that neither India nor China are on this list.. funny that is.


https://news.bitcoin.com/here-are-bitcoi...g-markets/



By the way, here is an interesting article about Zimbabwe and its currency issues, and an honorable mention of how bitcoin could be a potential solution its currency woes....

https://cointelegraph.com/news/zimbabwea...in-is-best

$1000 by midnight! just trust me.

(12-28-2016 12:31 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  $1000 by midnight! just trust me.

Which time zone? And which date?

We are getting closer, and closer and closer. We are about $40 away, as I type, which is only about 4%, which really is not much when you consider that BTC prices went up about $60 in the past 24 hours, and about $180 in the past week.

Just does not seem that we are at the top, yet. There was a market buy of nearly 800 BTC on Bitstamp a few hours ago, which is nearly $800k.. so there are folks who seem to continue to want this thingie majigie to go up.

(12-28-2016 01:58 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Which time zone? And which date?

This I will keep a secret, just wait and. see. For yourself.

(12-28-2016 04:50 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(12-28-2016 01:58 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Which time zone? And which date?

This I will keep a secret, just wait and. see. For yourself.

Makes it sound as if you are just making shit up... because anyone can make a prediction for a time and not provide the date and then when it happens, assert that their prediction was correct.

As i said, I already have my varying views about bitcoin's performance as a set of probabilities, and even though I think that some sets of events are more likely than others, I remain greatly open to events unfolding in ways that diverge considerably from my own viewpoint and then either making adjustments to my viewpoint or adjustments to my risk allocations (of my bitcoin holdings, for example).

If you still have not bought any bitcoins, then you are just being stubborn for the mere sake of being stubborn (and emotional, possibly), because you do certainly seem smart enough to recognize the upside potential of bitcoin, but for some reason you seem to be allowing your pride and/or emotions interfere with your ability to develop and or employ a prudent bitcoin investment strategy.

On the other hand, in the end, you have to make these kinds of decisions for yourself, of course, and to assess the totality of your financial circumstances and your views in order to recognize and/or accept if bitcoin investing has any place for you and your financial situation.

i recall that I had previously posted a link regarding Vinny's prediction, and asserted that his prediction has very similar parameters to my own.


https://vinnylingham.com/bitcoin-2017-a-....ybtfkgq2o

I think that he phrases matters a little different than me, and probably he gives more weight to some factors and less weight to other factors than I do..

For example, I think that he recognizes the budding nature of bitcoin and it's maturing, but to me it seems as if he is not giving enough weight to the manipulation aspects of gold (and it's paper components)...

Also, even though he was correct about the price of bitcoin passing through the $800s without a blink as a kind of given, I still continue to believe that was a bigger unanticipated event that deserves more weight.. but in the end, it really does not matter too much if one guy or another gives slightly more weight to one thing or another in order to decide his own level of investment and his own way of discussing the subject.... I continue to appreciate his various bitcoin insights.

This kind of supplements my above post about the Vinny article, yet I am thinking that the topic deserves it's own space because I am going on my own bit of a more specific price prediction tangent.

Based on recent BTC price performance, and bitcoin whizzing through the $800s and lower $900s like nobody's business, I am currently considering that the tentative meaningful BTC price resistance points will be in the $1,060 to $1,180 territory.

In other words, I don't really expect to have a BTC price reversal before that point (maybe there is a less than 30% chance of a price reversal before $1060, in my current thinking?), which also means that I am pretty sure that getting past $1,000 is kind of a done deal (o.k. yeah, nothing is really 100% certain in bitcoinlandia, but anyhow, I am just saying there seems to be very decent momentum for getting past $1,000, at the moment)

Yeah, I am not any kind of expert, so I could be totally fucking wrong, but that is my tentative sense of the matter of the coming several days, and we will see how it plays out.. and really we should be getting to $1,060 before new years.. but I don't know how many coins some big ass bear whales might be holding in reserve (under their sleeves) and prepared to dump on exchanges in order to attempt to prevent such an occurance.

Even though BTC trade volume is picking up a little bit in the last week-ish, the trade volume still does seem to be at fairly mediocre levels, which kind of indicates to me that any kind of "real" price battle has not begun, yet, which I am kind of currently anticipating could take place (or at least begin to take place) in the $1,060 to $1,180 price range.

We could also go shooting past $1,180, but I am asserting that currently I expect more potential of a price battle in the $1,060 to $1,180 range rather than before $1,000.

This article appears to be a few months old, yet it has a decent overall description of the s curve of adoption and the likely repetition of such cycles until mainstream adoption occurs..

https:[email protected]/speculati....yyw02u5k3

Well, I'm still learning... About a week ago, I wanted to put some more money in as the price was soaring. The quickest that could happen through CoinBase was one week! I've now missed out on a big rally...Granted, I am only putting a very small amount of money in, but still.

So, what I am doing from now on is: 1.) Putting money in the Coinbase Wallet, so that I can buy Bitcoin immediately, (I will likely top this up from time to time if needed) and 2.) To buy BTC every 2 weeks (automated), via money from my bank account.

I'm not in a position to throw a ton of money at bitcoin, nor do I feel confident predicting price trends. So instead I've just accepted I'm in it for the long haul. My first and only purchase back in June of a few hundred dollars has already risen +30% so I am pleased with that. In all I'm confident that Bitcoin will grow and grow over the years, and I will be patiently waiting.

(12-28-2016 09:51 PM)Seth_Rose Wrote:  Well, I'm still learning... About a week ago, I wanted to put some more money in as the price was soaring. The quickest that could happen through CoinBase was one week! I've now missed out on a big rally...Granted, I am only putting a very small amount of money in, but still.

I understand that sometimes, in the real world, we can have too many things on our plate, and then something like getting set up properly with a bitcoin plan ends up escaping review.

I had a similar kind of event when I started in 2013. In about September or October, I had book marked a tab that I was going to read regarding bitcoin, and I ended up doing a whole bunch of other stuff, and I did not get around to looking further into bitcoin until after it had gone through a considerable price rally of about 800% or maybe it was more.

Anyhow, I do not believe that you are too late. You can just buy what you can on a regular basis, and sooner or later, you will establish a decent stake and a decent allocation in alignment with your fiat investments.

Regarding your not being able to get your bitcoins through Coinbase for a week, I am a little bit confused.

if you set up an account and link a bank account, then you will have purchase limits, and those will likely go up during time. Sometimes, you will be able to purchase, but you do not receive the coins for a week, but you still locked into the purchase at the time that you click "buy." That receiving late is not a big deal, unless you are in a rush to use them somewhere else, but it does not negatively affect the value.

Sometimes, also people will just get there bitcoins through local bitcoins or a bitcoin ATM or find some other way to directly purchase BTC from someone who has BTC.

(12-28-2016 09:51 PM)Seth_Rose Wrote:  So, what I am doing from now on is: 1.) Putting money in the Coinbase Wallet, so that I can buy Bitcoin immediately, (I will likely top this up from time to time if needed) and 2.) To buy BTC every 2 weeks (automated), via money from my bank account.

Coinbase also has a linked trading platform called GDAX (Global Digital Asset Exchange), and you may also consider keeping some cash there and/or converting some coins there. There are ways to engage in fee free (or very low fee transactions).

You may also want to consider Upold.com and Gemini as other possible low cost options that you can keep your value in either dollars or BTC.

I personally think that it is a good idea to have several options available so that you don't feel as trapped in terms of either acquiring coins or liquidating - in the even that there is either sudden price movement or some other weird things going on with access to either one exchange or another.

(12-28-2016 09:51 PM)Seth_Rose Wrote:  I'm not in a position to throw a ton of money at bitcoin, nor do I feel confident predicting price trends. So instead I've just accepted I'm in it for the long haul.

For years, I had already been in the habit of projecting my cash flow for 1-2 years in advance, and so when I got into bitcoin, I just folded my plan for bitcoins into my budget projections.

When I started, I tentatively planned to hold bitcoin's for at least a year, but i only made purchase plans for 6 months. Then I made another 6 months plan and then bitcoin became part of my regular longer term cashflow projections.

(12-28-2016 09:51 PM)Seth_Rose Wrote:  My first and only purchase back in June of a few hundred dollars has already risen +30% so I am pleased with that. In all I'm confident that Bitcoin will grow and grow over the years, and I will be patiently waiting.

Yep. You can allocate according to your personal situation, and teak your plan(s) along the way, too.

This below linked article has decent contemporary discussion (published today) of how bitcoin may be a much more solid place today, as compared with 3 years ago (the last ATH).

http://qz.com/873828/bitcoins-nearing-it...-for-real/


I always take these kinds of predictions that a country is going to adopt bitcoin as its currency with a grain of salt, but they can still be good references and maybe some day there will be a country that does it first.


https://news.bitcoin.com/one-of-these-5-...n-in-2017/

The guy in this article makes some decent points about bitcoin, except maybe some of his distractions about making equivalencies of altcoins arguments, and then in the end saying too bad that bitcoin did not have more adoption. Bitcoin would be good if it had more adoption... blah blah blah..

I say don't get so preoccupied with the adoption argument because people will come.. no problema.. build a better mouse trap and sooner or later, people will be coming.. more and more and more.


https://www.cointelegraph.com/news/2017-...itcoin-era

Interesting release of what appears to be a documentary open source film about bitcoin

"Banking on Bitcoin" Film to Hit Theatres on January 6, 2017 Accompanied by VOD Release


http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/3186907

(12-28-2016 09:48 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  This article appears to be a few months old, yet it has a decent overall description of the s curve of adoption and the likely repetition of such cycles until mainstream adoption occurs..

https:[email protected]/speculati....yyw02u5k3

JJG, you gotta start pasting some excerpts from your links. I nearly missed reading this one, and it may be the best technical analysis of Bitcoin price behavior I've ever read!

The author essentially takes my Hype Cycle theory and shows how it applies in fractal format to the previous boom/bust cycles Bitcoin has gone through since its inception.

If his/our theory holds, we are now on the cusp of another bull run, which could see the Bitcoin price increase by roughly an order of magnitude before peaking and pulling back to another trough/baseline, giving us a perfect road map of when to buy and sell/accumulate:

Quote:If one researches Bitcoin for any length of time, one invariably encounters the phenomenon of the bitcoin bubble. The price, after rising slowly but fairly steadily for a length time, suddenly explodes by 5–10% a day for a sustained period of time culminating in typically a full order of magnitude (~1,000%) increase over its previous value. This is known in Bitcoin circles as a “Bull Run”.

Since these bubbles are inherently speculative in nature, they reach a point known as “The Height of Irrational Exuberance”, where the sellers begin to outnumber the buys and the bubble pops and the price crashes down to a range above the pre-bubble price; but many multiples lower than the peak. This is typically the time Bitcoin begins to be pronounced dead by many economists and news outlets.

The price stabilizes around this low value for some time, which I refer to as “The Boring Low”. If you are looking to accumulate, this is typically the best time. In this stage no amount of good news seems to affect the price in any manner.

Eventually, the market begins to view the price as stable and speculative investment resumes. This leads to the next stage (which we are currently in), that I call “The Volatilic Rise”. In this stage, the price stair-steps its way back into the vicinity of the old high. Once the price reaches a sustained level of 80–90% the old peak, the bubble cycle typically starts over again with another bull run.

Quote:I believe that the pattern is a fairly pure representation of the psychology of large groups of independent speculators each attempting to act rationally trading a rapidly appreciating asset. The primary motivators of these movements are greed and fear and are fundamental to human nature.

The bull run happens due to a tipping point of hype where greed and fear of missing out (FOMO) take hold and speculative fervor ensues. More speculators see this and jump on the bandwagon, accelerating the run. Eventually, the return for the initial speculators grows so large, their fear of losing the money they have earned outweighs their greed for more and they begin to sell. The price increase has been far too rapid to possibly be legitimate.

From here, the bull run peaks out and the crash begins. People who bought in at the height of the fervor begin to lose money and sell to avoid further losses. These people are typically short term speculators generally uninterested in the technology and looking only to make a quick profit in fiat. They are commonly referred to as “weak hands”, because they fold (sell) at the first sign of trouble; usually losing money on the transaction. The crash is the process of the market shaking out all of the weak hands. The crash ends when nobody with bitcoin is willing to sell it, these are typically long term holders and the total number (and combined worth) of them grows after each bull run.

After the crash, the narratives of Bitcoin dying or being too volatile to serve as a store of value need time to subside. During the boring low, there is not much speculative action and the price remains relatively stable. New speculators see no reason to jump into the market as the asset isn’t appreciating and those holding don’t want to sell at a low. This continues on until speculators begin to view the price as stable.

As time goes by with a stable price, speculators collectively begin to see the value as potentially low. Several new whales research the technology and buy relatively large amount spurring mini-bubbles that spike and then reverberate stabilizing over time with a general uptrend. This stage I refer to as “the Volatilic Rise”. The price basically stair-steps in increments on the order of magnitude of the pre bull run high (ex. right now they are ~$100). The price rises and falls, generally with a long term upward trend until reaching roughly 80% of the peak price of the bull run. The formerly impossible price of the peak now appears real and relatively stable. A new hype cycle begins and greed and FOMO lead toward a new bull run.

That’s the cycle. By my count is has happened in Bitcoin 5 times so far, and as human nature does not fundamentally change I see no reason why it won’t happen 2–3 more times.

At present, all technical indications are that we are several months away from a new hype cycle and bull run. I anticipate we have one more plateau in the volatilic rise phase before then, likely around $900.

This is my new favorite theory, one that I will be evaluating closely over the next several months. What a very exciting time to be alive (and invested in Bitcoin)!

(12-29-2016 06:24 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

(12-28-2016 09:48 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  This article appears to be a few months old, yet it has a decent overall description of the s curve of adoption and the likely repetition of such cycles until mainstream adoption occurs..

https:[email protected]/speculati....yyw02u5k3

JJG, you gotta start pasting some excerpts from your links. I nearly missed reading this one, and it may be the best technical analysis of Bitcoin price behavior I've ever read!
....................

I agree. It is a great article.

JJG you're right about locking the price in. It doesn't show the funds until they've been transferred but it does show you the amount of btc you purchase.

(12-29-2016 10:29 PM)Seth_Rose Wrote:  JJG you're right about locking the price in. It doesn't show the funds until they've been transferred but it does show you the amount of btc you purchase.

O.k..... I am glad that is cleared up, and I do think that there are some learning curves with bitcoin that will become more ironed out with practice, and surely every service has differing kinds of terms that some times can be a bit confusing... so sometimes, depending on your priorities, it will be good to have a few accounts set up and to practice using them - even though it may initially seem like a bit of work to get each of them set up. That way, you have options and flexibility.

A little bit of a fantasy... to become a bitcoin millionaire with 100BTC by 2020, no? Could be possible? That would be bitcoins priced at $10k per... within reach? reasonable?


https://cointelegraph.com/news/want-to-b...-investing

Certainly, this guy uses stronger language than me to "guarantee" bitcoin prices will be above $1k by the first week of January and he expects up to at least $1,100 by January 10. His basis is the Chinese, and really that seems insufficient a reason for me to accept his conclusion, but fine.. it could be a factor -even though I doubt that hardly anything is guaranteed in bitcoinlandia, except if the event has already happened.


https://bitconnect.co/bitcoin-news/397/w...k-of-2017/

BTC sucks balls. I just sold them all. got paper EUR and USD instead. BTC no $1000 = dump that shit.

(12-31-2016 03:56 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  BTC sucks balls. I just sold them all. got paper EUR and USD instead. BTC no $1000 = dump that shit.

I thought that you sold all your lillie fiends at $250-ish in mid 2015, no?

How could you have any more bitcoins, except maybe when you entered that $550-ish short in August 2016, that quite obviously did not work out too well.

Thereafter, you have only asserted that you have NOT been buying bitcoin, so how could you have any at this point, and how could have you sold into USD and Euros?

Did you enter some kind of short recently, so you are hoping/praying/wishing that from this point forward, BTC prices will go down in order that your recently ongoing wrong gambling is going to pay off, this time? hope springs eternal, and gambling can be addictively wrong... especially if you leverage or put too many eggs in such a bet.

Sure, you could be correct that bitcoin is a bit overinflated at the moment and the direction could be down from here; however, it seems to me that the odds are a bit more for additional upwards than they are down, at least at the moment and in the coming weeks.

I personally am not gambling either way, so I have buy and sell orders stacked in both directions, and surely the rise of the last couple of years have paid off quite handsomely for guys who have been getting in, and have bet long rather than short.

And sure such "profits" are on paper if guys do not cash out, so sometimes it will be a good plan to take some profits along the way going up, but I would not bet either direction (I mean leveraging can be quite dangerous if you do not know what you are doing), especially down - when bitcoin could be on the cusp of another exponential growth curve, believe it or not... so getting out could become quite problematic and hard to get those coins back at the same price.

(12-31-2016 04:27 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(12-31-2016 03:56 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  BTC sucks balls. I just sold them all. got paper EUR and USD instead. BTC no $1000 = dump that shit.

I thought that you sold all your lillie fiends at $250-ish in mid 2015, no?

How could you have any more bitcoins, except maybe when you entered that $550-ish short in August 2016, that quite obviously did not work out too well.

Thereafter, you have only asserted that you have NOT been buying bitcoin, so how could you have any at this point, and how could have you sold into USD and Euros?

Did you enter some kind of short recently, so you are hoping/praying/wishing that from this point forward, BTC prices will go down in order that your recently ongoing wrong gambling is going to pay off, this time? hope springs eternal, and gambling can be addictively wrong... especially if you leverage or put too many eggs in such a bet.

Sure, you could be correct that bitcoin is a bit overinflated at the moment and the direction could be down from here; however, it seems to me that the odds are a bit more for additional upwards than they are down, at least at the moment and in the coming weeks.

I personally am not gambling either way, so I have buy and sell orders stacked in both directions, and surely the rise of the last couple of years have paid off quite handsomely for guys who have been getting in, and have bet long rather than short.

And sure such "profits" are on paper if guys do not cash out, so sometimes it will be a good plan to take some profits along the way going up, but I would not bet either direction (I mean leveraging can be quite dangerous if you do not know what you are doing), especially down - when bitcoin could be on the cusp of another exponential growth curve, believe it or not... so getting out could become quite problematic and hard to get those coins back at the same price.

By the way Satoshi, from what I can gather from your fact sparse assertions, it appears that you are engaging in a form of Martingale type gambling and having had a few fairly major losses, recently.. Martingale is a kind of continuing to double down on bets, and hoping to be correct at some point.....

It could be true that at some point you could be correct (and regain your losses), but what you are suggesting seems a dangerous kind of longterm approach for guys to follow, even though I recall that you had some success (and luck) with it in the past. The reason that I say it is dangerous is because statistically the odds are against you, even though it is possible that you could bet lucky, at some point.

(12-28-2016 06:13 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  We could also go shooting past $1,180, but I am asserting that currently I expect more potential of a price battle in the $1,060 to $1,180 range rather than before $1,000.

My bet is $975-$1025 will be a struggle. I am .01% confident with this bet.