(11-02-2016 01:35 PM)booshala Wrote:  JJG, most people don't care to be criticized - I get that... but the tone-deaf way you've doubled down makes me agree with Satoshi that it's a lost cause to try and persuade you to chill out.

No snark: if you haven't already, you should get checked to see how you rate on the autism/Asperger's spectrum. I have a buddy who's a member of several forums, also really into minutiae and is very socially awkward IRL and online and he just got diagnosed.

Regarding your "no snark," seems a bit much for you to assert that you have some kinds of meaningful "IRL" conclusions based on some kind of analysis that you have done in reference to some of my posts. A bit off topic, couldn't you realize such?

Maybe could put a damper on the current bitcoin pump?

China seems to be considering banning bitcoin, AGAIN.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-03...ls-bitcoin

(11-03-2016 12:44 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  

Yeah, that reaction is be called KORECK.

Sure sometimes the negative news can cause a price correction, even if a correction may have already started (or had been on the precipice), or the negative news can cause the correction to be deeper and/or longer to change the short or long term price trend - and also could be coupled by additional news that feeds into such change in price direction.

We have already gotten about a 7% correction from this particular incident from nearly $750 to almost $700, and 20% or even more correction is not beyond reason - especially given that we had nearly a 25% price upsurge without any kind of meaningful correction (yes, a few days ago, we did experience a short-lived nearly 5% correction from mid $720s to upper $680s)...

I think that it remains a good practice to attempt to play the situation by ear and don't get too over invested in one price direction or another (yes, my common mantra, and I have no problem if guys want to advocate other BTC approaches, even though I may end up ragging them in respect to their alternative approach... hahahahahaha, especially if such alternative approach makes little to no sense in the apparent current context )

Maybe the Bitfinex "scheduled maintanence" also has something to do with some of this additional correction from lower $700s to lower $690s?

If you look at their status page, it appears that they started the update a couple of hours ago, and then they pushed it back, "due to price volatility" and then they resumed it, which seemed to cause more price volatility (or at least was coincidental to additional price volatility)

https://www.bitfinex.com/history/trades


"We'll Be Right Back

We are offline for planned platform maintenance and updates.

This substantial update will encompass over 50 new features and optimizations. We expect the update to take up to 90 minutes but may be completed in under an hour.

In the hours before the planned upgrade, we will be monitoring market activity closely. If the market is relatively calm, we will proceed with the update. However, if the market is highly active, we may choose to postpone the update so as to not adversely affect the market. During this period of monitoring, we will be posting constant updates on whether or not the updates will proceed as expected.

To view images and video demos of some of the new features (including new chart tools, price alerts, and interface improvements) check out the changelog for this release.

Please monitor bitfinex.statuspage.io and Twitter @bitfinex for updates.

You can contact us at [email protected]"

Even though the Bitfinex downtime was questionable in terms of timing and even motive, they seem to be back up and running with some kind of semblance of "normalcy"


regarding the chinese news, it still remains quite difficult to say whether China is "banning bitcoin" again.


Whenever we get news out of China, there seems to be an additional level of misinterpretation based on translation issues.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment..._and_they/

You should learn Chinese.

I've stocked up on some more Bitcoin. Very simple premise is that a Trump victory will send the USD tumbling in the short run.

(11-03-2016 11:12 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  You should learn Chinese.

That is kind of a meaningless connection that you are making. Do you got anything more substantive to say about the point?

Frequently, I think that folks give quite a bit more weight to China bitcoin related data than it seems to deserve (whether that is exchange volume and activities, or mining or other chinese bitcoin related news); however, yeah it is quite possible that reasonable folks can differ in terms of their opinions and their attempts to incorporate "Chinese impact on bitcoin" data into the analysis of bitcoin as a whole, but no matter the case, sometimes the irrational does enter and does seem to affect the overall bitcoin market and/or price direction, at least on the margins.

(11-04-2016 12:32 AM)Bushido Wrote:  I've stocked up on some more Bitcoin. Very simple premise is that a Trump victory will send the USD tumbling in the short run.

I think that I agree with you regarding the potential impact of a Trump victory on bitcoin.

I think that Hilary remains the favorite, and a win from her probably would not have too big of an impact on bitcoin, either way..... in other words, bitcoin is going to do whatever it is going to do if Hilary were to win.. because a win from her is kind of already "priced in."

On the other hand, it does seem that Trump remains a considerable underdog (even though he may be catching up in some sense in recent weeks due to continued Hilary fuck ups, scandals and negative press), but if he were to win, I think that such an upset win would cause considerable uncertainty, surprise and potentially violent reaction of the markets (at least short term), and bitcoin would likely receive some additional upward price pressures from such a result, if it were occur.

I think such a Trump victory still remains less than a 30% chance in reality, but we still have about 5 more days before anything is really locked in, despite some early voting already having had taken place.

^^ Yes...it's a "bet" with little downside as I see it.

As for the upside...Trump is going to win. Trust me.

(11-04-2016 12:16 PM)Bushido Wrote:  ^^ Yes...it's a "bet" with little downside as I see it.

As for the upside...Trump is going to win. Trust me.

O.k. this is kind of related to bitcoin because we both agree that if Trump were to win that seems to be bullish for bitcoin, and I don't know if you have any opinion on what a Hilary win would have on bitcoin? I already stated mine.

As you say that there is likely little downside to buying more bitcoin, I think that I agree with that in regards that there remain pretty decent upwards price pressures on bitcoin... yet I don't really know the timeline that is necessary to ensure that you are profitable if you are buying in the $680 to $720 price range, as a kind of initial investment? If someone were just starting and they had $5k to invest, I probably would suggest only investing between about 40% and 60% of that investment capital at these price points. That reflects my own incremental strategy.


I don't fucking know this stuff or assert that I know, and that is why I put the odds at 30%-ish.. that Trump would win. That is not asserting anything about my preferences or anything like that, but it is my own opinion of likely scenarios based on the totality of what I see (whether what I see is accurate or not or knowable or not because there can be some funny things with human behavior - including what we have now seen as the Brexit effect).

Maybe i am off in my prediction by 10 or 20% or maybe even 40%, but I think that my prediction remains a fair attempt to realistically assess what I consider likely.

Bushido, are you really putting the odds of Trump winning at such a high level that you are putting your credibility on the line? What you would prefer and what is likely are two different things, no? Also, attempting to persuade people is one thing and attempting to describe what is actually happening is another. I claim to largely approach matters on line and in this thread in the second camp, and not the first one.

Do you even give a shit about whether you are accurate? One thing is to say 100% and another thing is to say 75%.. and another thing is to say 51%.... Any of these scenarios would give quite a higher probability to a Trump win than what I am considering to be likely, but to me, any kind of prediction that approaches anywhere close to 100% or making a Trump win as a kind of shoe in seems to really come off as pie in the sky thinking, no?

Hillary is the status quo so her winning shouldn't hurt the BTC price too much or shock the markets.

I'd put Trump's chances of winning at 90%. 10% Hillary because I don't have a crystal ball and electoral fraud is possible.

(11-04-2016 12:41 PM)Bushido Wrote:  Hillary is the status quo so her winning shouldn't hurt the BTC price too much or shock the markets.

I'd put Trump's chances of winning at 90%. 10% Hillary because I don't have a crystal ball and electoral fraud is possible.

If you really think 90% is a valuable probability, I rather put some money on trump winning through a booking site. That will give you much better bang for the bucks in the long run.

*short run.

(11-04-2016 04:16 PM)pants Wrote:  

(11-04-2016 12:41 PM)Bushido Wrote:  Hillary is the status quo so her winning shouldn't hurt the BTC price too much or shock the markets.

I'd put Trump's chances of winning at 90%. 10% Hillary because I don't have a crystal ball and electoral fraud is possible.

If you really think 90% is a valuable probability, I rather put some money on trump winning through a booking site. That will give you much better bang for the bucks in the long run.

Actually, that is a very true statement regarding putting your money on something, especially if you believe the odds are in your favor. I think that there are a lot of polls out there that put Hilary as the favorite, so if you are accurate regarding Trump's chances of winning being anywhere greater than 50%, then it would be a reasonable (and favorable) bet.

I think that the same can be said about betting one way or another on anything, including bitcoin. If you have a differing view than the majority, and then you end up being correct, you prosper from betting in accordance with your views of the future.

(11-04-2016 04:16 PM)pants Wrote:  

(11-04-2016 12:41 PM)Bushido Wrote:  Hillary is the status quo so her winning shouldn't hurt the BTC price too much or shock the markets.

I'd put Trump's chances of winning at 90%. 10% Hillary because I don't have a crystal ball and electoral fraud is possible.

If you really think 90% is a valuable probability, I rather put some money on trump winning through a booking site. That will give you much better bang for the bucks in the long run.

I don't have the stomach to possibly lose all my money. Even if 10% is a small probability. Simple as that.

(11-04-2016 08:57 PM)Bushido Wrote:  

(11-04-2016 04:16 PM)pants Wrote:  

(11-04-2016 12:41 PM)Bushido Wrote:  Hillary is the status quo so her winning shouldn't hurt the BTC price too much or shock the markets.

I'd put Trump's chances of winning at 90%. 10% Hillary because I don't have a crystal ball and electoral fraud is possible.

If you really think 90% is a valuable probability, I rather put some money on trump winning through a booking site. That will give you much better bang for the bucks in the long run.

I don't have the stomach to possibly lose all my money. Even if 10% is a small probability. Simple as that.

I personally believe that the reason that you respond that you do not feel comfortable betting is because you don't believe your own estimation of probabilities of such future events at 90/10 Trump/Clinton, because in reality you should feel completely comfortable in making a wager that is approximately in proportion to your belief of probability that such an event will occur (whether you are betting $10 or $1,000, now that is a different story - you should only bet what you have as extra cash flow apart from what you need for your other expenses and projected expenses). On the other hand, finding a suitable betting venue might be another more realistic obstacle.

No man. I'm not a betting man and wouldn't put money down even if I were 99% sure.

This way I get to "wager" without losing the principal. I wanted to increase my BTC holdings anyway and it's a totally reasonable approach.

Anyone else end up signing on for that digital currencies course?

I did but have yet to dig through the material.

(11-05-2016 07:02 PM)Beyond Borders Wrote:  Anyone else end up signing on for that digital currencies course?

I did but have yet to dig through the material.

Can you provide a link to the one that you are referring to?

I think that there are several online courses that relate to crypto currencies.

(11-05-2016 07:02 PM)Beyond Borders Wrote:  Anyone else end up signing on for that digital currencies course?

I did but have yet to dig through the material.

Yes this one:

http://digitalcurrency.unic.ac.cy/free-i...tory-mooc/

I also haven't looked at it yet.

(11-05-2016 08:56 PM)Bushido Wrote:  

(11-05-2016 07:02 PM)Beyond Borders Wrote:  Anyone else end up signing on for that digital currencies course?

I did but have yet to dig through the material.

Yes this one:

http://digitalcurrency.unic.ac.cy/free-i...tory-mooc/

I also haven't looked at it yet.

Oh.. I had heard something about this, but I had never seen a link or actual description.

That looks pretty interesting. It is like a free degree (or certification), so it is much more than one or two courses in "digital currencies."

I will certainly look into it, and maybe i will recommend friends, too.

Even if it is free, financially, there is likely a certain level of obligation to spend quite a bit of time in reviewing whatever materials that they provide... but still may be a decent use of time for folks who are interested in the topic.