(11-10-2016 03:59 AM)Bushido Wrote: Well I was right about the election, but wrong about the extent of the hit on the dollar. Turns out that people on Wall Street didn't panic as much as we were expecting. I'll take this outcome!
Regarding your Trump prediction, and our earlier discussion of betting on that outcome, I had been thinking about writing a further response regarding that matter and whether you had sufficiently bet on the Trump outcome. Of course, there were ways to bet directly on such an outcome, and surely the odds would have been in your favor in a direct and official betting institutions because there was overwhelming consensus that a Trump win was not very statistically probable given the states that he would need to win and the total expectations regarding how extreme of a persona that he tends to present.
So, yeah, I was also live watching the election results through various websites, and the various prediction meters of the NYT and 538 and a couple of others, and pretty consistently in the beginning of the night, the odds were quite considerably with Hilary... but then as some of the states showed Trump and even closer than expected and even opposite than as expected, the flip came pretty fast and it became more and more statistically improbable that Hilary was going to make up for the momentum of some of those larger states that Trump was winning and flipping.
I was also attempting to live trade bitcoin based on such election results, and I kind of changed my normal BTC trading plan and practice in order to attempt to capitalize on the unexpected news. And, yeah, initially the traditional markets went down and the bitcoin prices went up, but those price movements only seemed to have lasted for a few hours, and by the time the USA markets opened up on Wednesday morning, the negative reaction of the traditional markets had already largely played themselves out... and accordingly, the bitcoin market seemed to have played itself out too.... possibly partly based on the lack luster and even turning out positive day long reaction of traditional markets.
Yeah, so I was also expecting some violent upwards BTC price movements that would at least bring us above the mid-$700s based on such news (and expected instability in traditional markets), and pretty much the BTC up came and then came back down and currently (in the $716 to $718 arena) we are only remaining about 1% or possibly 2% above where we started in the lower $700s, but maybe overall this Trump outcome will continue to contribute to upwards BTC price pressures - even though such upwards BTC price pressures may not be clearly and directly attributable to Trump effects, exactly?
I think that there are also some kinds of waiting and seeing what kinds of things he is going to do in transitional type announcements, and even if he comes off of some of his extreme and shocking kinds of behaviors (because maybe there is less utility in some of that once he has actually clearly gotten the power to make some of the changes that he was proclaiming that he was going to make).
By the way, even though I took some initial actions in preparation for a potential violent upwards BTC price swing based on the Trump win, by the middle of the night, I had half way reverted back to a modified position based on the non occurence of any kind of violent upwards price movement, and then after the market came back down from its very little upwards movement of 5-6%, I initiated a kind of trade that allowed me to pretty much revert back to my original BTC trading strategy which allows for continued incremental BTC selling on the way up and incremental buying BTC on the way down... without really banking on explosive growth (or a crash), even though I still would be financially prepared for either explosive direction, if either explosive direction were to occur.